
"This War Starts and Ends With a No-Fly Zone."
We'll see about that. In response to the armed rebellion, Qaddafi made very limited use of his airpower capabilities. Although Human Rights Watch reported a fighter jet firing one missile near a mixed crowd of rebels and civilians in Brega on March 2, most of the reported targets struck from the air were massed rebel movements, military barracks, and weapons depots. (A surprising number of bombs fell in the middle of the desert, suggesting disloyalty among the regime's pilots.) Nevertheless, interventionists settled on a no-fly zone as the preferred means of protecting civilians. As Sen. John Kerry acknowledged in an early endorsement of the idea, "Imposing a no-fly zone would not be a panacea. It probably would not tip the balance if Libya deteriorates into a full-scale civil war. But it would eliminate airstrikes and save the lives of civilians."
In reality, the tactic was selected not for its effectiveness at eliminating airstrikes (which it did), but rather because it required the least commitment. Even before the intervention, the overwhelming majority of attacks by the Qaddafi regime against civilians were conducted by Libyan ground forces, making a no-fly zone irrelevant to protecting vulnerable populations. Predictably, the regime has adapted well-known and time-tested defensive countermeasures in response to the no-fly zone and the NATO airstrikes; its military remains effective and lethal. Qaddafi's forces have traded tanks and armored personnel carriers for unmarked pickup trucks and SUVs indistinguishable from those used by rebels, and deployed combat capabilities in populated urban areas. As one Pentagon official aptly noted earlier this month, "What this shows is that you cannot guarantee tipping the balance of ground operations only with bombs and missiles from the air."
The limited commitment to the no-fly zone and nothing more stands in glaring contradiction not only to NATO's stated aim of civilian protection in Libya, but also to history. In Bosnia-Herzegovina from 1992 to 1995 and southern and northern Iraq from 1991 to 2003, no-fly zones or even the limited application of airpower proved inadequate to the task of stopping military aggression against civilians. The civil wars in the former Yugoslavia only ended through a ground offensive carried out by Croats and Bosnian Muslims and supported by artillery shelling from British, Dutch, and French forces deployed on the ground, as well as nearly two weeks of NATO airstrikes against 48 Bosnia Serb targets. In Iraq, it took extensive airpower and -- ultimately -- an invasion of some 150,000 ground troops to neutralize Saddam Hussein.


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