Wanted: Charismatic Terror Mastermind. Some Travel Required.

How will al Qaeda pick its new leader?

BY LEAH FARRALL | MAY 3, 2011

As speculation about al Qaeda's leadership succession mounts in the wake of Osama bin Laden's death, the answer to who will assume control next lies in the organization's rules and regulations -- like those of any good corporation. Written and reviewed by a group of senior leaders, some of whom may now be poised to assume new positions within al Qaeda, they provide insight into how this critical transition will be handled, and will factor heavily into who is selected to move up the leadership ladder.

Al Qaeda's organizational protocols (some earlier versions of which are available at the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point) make clear that a chain of succession exists. In the event of the capture or death of al Qaeda's emir (leader), power automatically transfers to the deputy emir (currently Ayman al-Zawahiri), with a executive council vote  to follow -- confirming his permanent election to the position, or selecting another leader. If both the emir and his deputy are killed or captured, power temporarily goes to the head of the executive council (again with a vote following to confirm his leadership or select another member). The executive council is compromised of the emir and his deputy, as well as senior leaders from al Qaeda, usually those who head up a section in the organization, such as the military, security, or administration branches. It is a small body, probably now comprised of only a handful of members, although it once numbered around 10 when al Qaeda was safely ensconced in Afghanistan. It is from within this body that a new emir would be chosen if Zawahiri and his new deputy were to be killed or captured or otherwise deemed unfit to lead.

For good reason, al Qaeda has not pushed many of the leaders who hold these positions into the limelight. It has instead built its image around those already holding a public profile, while introducing some new second-generation leaders, such as Abu Yahya al-Libi, who are charismatic and can call others to join in the fight while defending the organization from criticism.

However, while the remaining first-generation figures may not exactly be household names, the United States now presumably has a wealth of new intelligence and operational notes garnered from bin Laden's compound in Abottabad, Pakistan. Already, U.S. intelligence assets will have compiled substantial information on senior figures and their possible locations, communications practices, and potentially, their operational taskings. But exploiting this information won't be so easy. Following bin Laden's capture, al Qaeda will have gone into communication lock down. The requirement of a vote electing Zawahiri to the leadership position, which requires risking communications at a particularly dangerous time, is thus likely to be dispensed with.

Arif Ali/AFP/Getty Images

 

Leah Farrall is a former senior counter terrorism analyst with the Australian Federal Police and lecturer on terrorism and insurgency. She is author of the blog allthingscounterterrorism.com.

NORMANCLINCKSPOOR

9:20 PM ET

May 3, 2011

Thank god.

Thank god that guy is dead. Now if George past away i will be happy!! .

 

JOHN FRANCE

1:10 AM ET

May 4, 2011

al Qaeda

al Qaeda will evolve and find a new leader. Osama will been seen as a martyr for his cause. Christ twenty years from now Middle Eastern Emo's will probably have his face on a Tshirt like Che Guvara.

 

YUMA

2:59 AM ET

May 4, 2011

Thanks God

Thanks God that Osama is dead because is opportunity for the peace, I want to see the videos gratis of this moment, can you tell me where I can watch this video?

 

JACK DAN

5:43 AM ET

May 4, 2011

Thaks to Mr President Barack Obama

Nowadays people finding peaceful and secure environment. This is the first step for it. I think we all countries get together and then we can get victory on terrorism. So thanks to Mr President again. Combat Vests.

 

ART

9:43 AM ET

May 4, 2011

Is Mr Farrall regurgitating the propaganda for profit ?

Mr Farrall's essay seems to based largely on the so-called al-qaeda hand book. Yet, when researching the origin and author of that document the name Ali Muhammad is front and center . Ali Muhammad reportedly schooled Bin Laden and others , was involved in the first WTC attack ( funded by the NY FBI -with their guys Emad Salem and Melvin Latimore) and also the African Embassy bombings. He at times worked for the US Army , the FBI and the CIA .

Janet Reno shelved details of his involvement for 40 years and Ashcroft had him released ! ......Frankly I am very tired of the manipulation ,outright lies , agent provocateurs and continuous parade of useful idiots to advance a murderous foreign policy .

 

HURRICANEWARNING

1:40 PM ET

May 4, 2011

IT will not be easy for

IT will not be easy for AlQaeda to find a GOOD new leader who is anything like Osama BinLaden. Men with his Jihadi Credentials are becoming harder and harder to find these days (thanks predator drones, thumbs up!). This is why they end up with leaders like al-zarqawi, a crazed psycho path who did more to help America's cause in the long run than his own. Al-Qaeda as we know it is finished. There will be offshoots, there will be pretenders, (and there will be much infighting), but AQ for all intents and purposes will either evolve into something new, or crumble into history. Time will tell. But make no mistake, in their eyes, we have just killed their Salahaddin, and he will be hard to replace indeed.

 

AARKY

3:10 PM ET

May 4, 2011

New Al Qaida Leaders??

The WH made such a story out of following couriers for years until they finally located Bin Laden that it is probably disinformation. Why would they give out this information if it could be used to catch or kill the number two, three, or successor to Bin Laden?
I think $25 million has been paid out recently and also secretly.

 

ROMAN GIL

5:37 PM ET

May 4, 2011

The 'Osama Bin Laden Is Dead" Story Questions for Investigation

The “Osama Bin Laden Is Dead Story” Has Many Questions That Need To Be Investigated.

Osama Bin Laden was a terrorist and deserved the death penalty. This is why the media must investigate this story instead of merely parroting the information that was provided by the government.

Based on my experience as a decorated US Army combat veteran, this story has credibility problems. I tried to post these questions in the comments section of several mass media publications and they did not get posted. A free press is essential in a free society because it has a duty to investigate what the government is doing and it must educate citizens. A free media must publish all responsible questions from the public and be open to debate. Thomas Jefferson said that given the choice between government and a printing press, he would take the printing press.

1. Why they did not show Osama’s body publicly? In 1967, Che Guevara the Communist guerrilla was captured alive wounded in Bolivia, interrogated, killed and his body was displayed to the world media. A responsible government would display Osama’s body to the media and to a panel of international physicians to prove without a doubt the death of the most wanted terrorist in the world. The government version that Osama’s head was too damaged to show the public is not credible. Morticians can prepare a body for public display. Media and international physicians would be welcome to take DNA samples from the body as total proof of Osama’s demise.

2. Osama was unarmed when they shot him? Osama was a terrorist veteran of the Afghan Soviet war that was waged in the 1980s between Islamist guerrillas and the Soviet Union. Anybody with his background would have alarmed, mined and booby trapped his house. Weapons would be in his possession at all times and in every room of the house, including hand grenades. He had plenty of time to install command detonated mines everywhere outside and inside the compound. I have problems believing that the most wanted terrorist in the world was killed while unarmed. When I was in a war zone, my weapon was with me at all times and I slept with it and lots of ammo and hand grenades, could Osama be so foolish that he did not have weapons in his room?

3. There were no American casualties? This is simply not credible because attacking a compound that is occupied by dangerous men that had plenty of time to prepare for defense, makes it certain that the attackers must sustain casualties. Osama’s terrorist group specializes in suicide bombers of both sexes. They could not spare even one of them to protect their leader?

4. Why did we spend $1.5 Trillion dollars occupying and "nation building" Iraq and Afghanistan instead of targeting Osama's less than 1,000 terrorists?. We could have got Osama 10 years ago at a reasonable cost. When American troops landed in Afghanistan after the 9/11 terrorist attack, the Afghan Northern Alliance had already overthrown the Taliban government that harbored Osama. It was not necessary to occupy the country. A war using Special Forces would have been sufficient

5. Why are we still involved in the Israeli-Muslim conflict? This is the cause of the war on terror. We inherited Israel’s enemies and they struck us on 9/11. The effects of our involvement will continue until we divorce from the Muslim world and focus on killing the actual terrorists until they are finished. Our absence from the Muslim world will make Muslims eventually stop provoking us with terrorism because they will want to keep us out. It is common sense that it would be in the Muslim interest to stop terrorism against America to keep America from coming back to their lands. With America out of the Israeli-Muslim conflict, the Muslims will be free to focus on their affairs and their problem with Israel. Israel has nuclear weapons and a strong military that assures it that it can survive any war without America. The only beneficiaries of the present war on terror are the war contractors and the special interest groups.

Some possible explanations for this unusual story;

a) The government killed Osama Bin Laden but it believes that it is not necessary to provide conclusive proof of their actions because they are universally loved and trusted. This means that they are incompetent because they did not prove their story.

b) Osama Bin Laden was hooked on opium and developed a false sense of security. His followers shared this drug problem and failed to fortify and provide guards for the Osama compound.
c) The masses are so stupid that they will accept without question anything that the government and media tells them, so why bother with proof?

d) Osama Bin Laden died years ago, and now it is a convenient time to bring him back to distract the masses and continue the hugely profitable war on terror and gain mass support for a government that cannot exist without debt and financial dependency on special interest groups.

e) This story is a case that simply shows the irresponsibility and incompetence of the American government.

The $1.5 Trillion spent on the war on terror continues to pile additional debt and there is no end in sight. The money that was wasted on fighting this war with a wrong strategy could have been wisely invested by loaning it to private enterprise companies that would be protected from cheap imports. A new industrial policy like South Korea’s would reconstruct and protect a new American industrial base that would replace the industry and technology that global corporations exported to China and other Third World countries under the globalization false ideology that has ruined America and Europe and created millions of permanently unemployed people. America would be able to replace imports with nationally produced products and services. The trade losses would end and careers in science, engineering, chemistry and skilled jobs would be abundant in an industrial economy.

With a new industrial base, America would be independent of imports and global debt financing. Presently, the Federal government needs to annually beg and borrow $1.65 Trillion a year from international capital and US investors because the industrial base of the American economy is only 9%. There are not enough corporate or individual taxpayers to support the huge Federal, State and local governments, plus their armies of government contractors. In any case, the American governments must reduce their size and expenses by 40% to balance their budgets and avoid digging America deeper into debt and dependency on the kindness of creditors.

The present economic and political dependency of the American economy on debt, special interest groups and imports makes a continuation of the present globalist war on terror fatal for America. It’s a choice of nation building America before it becomes a terminal case of financial and social cancer, or continue to dig the debt and dependency grave deeper until we end like other failed world powers, including the British Empire, the French Empire and Soviet Union.

Roman Gil
http://roman-gil1.blogspot.com
www.facebook.com/roman.gil1
http://twitter.com/RomanGil1

 

PERSON_GUYZ

4:14 AM ET

June 2, 2011

A new industrial policy like

A new industrial policy like South Korea’s would reconstruct and protect a new American industrial base that would replace the industry and technology that global corporations exported to China and other Third World countries under the globalization false ideology that has ruined America and Europe and created millions of permanently unemployed people cat illnesses and symptoms. A new industrial policy like South Korea’s would reconstruct and protect a new American industrial base that would replace the industry and technology that global corporations exported to China and other Third World countries under the globalization false ideology that has ruined America and Europe and created millions of permanently unemployed people.