Can the World Feed 10 Billion People?

With an exploding global population -- and Africa's numbers set to triple -- the world's experts are falling over themselves arguing how to feed the masses. Why do they have it so wrong?

BY RAJ PATEL | MAY 4, 2011

Again, this matters beyond Malawi's borders, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. The world's population growth is scheduled to be driven by "high fertility countries" -- most of which are in Africa. The UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food, Olivier de Schutter, recently argued that the world might be better fed not by pumping the soil with chemicals, but by using cutting-edge "agroecological" techniques to build soil fertility, and using policy to achieve environmental and social sustainability. In a review of 286 sustainable agriculture projects in 57 developing countries covering 91 million acres, a team led by British environmental scientist Jules Pretty found production increases of 79 percent -- again, far higher than the fertilizer subsidy in Malawi, and with a far broader range of ecological and social benefits than increased food production.

These programs succeed, in part, because they don't see hunger as the consequence of a surfeit of peasants or a deficit in soil, but as the result of complex environmental, social, and political causes. You don't just need chemists to solve hunger -- you need sociologists, soil biologists, agronomists, ethnographers, and even economists. Paying for their skills is the opportunity cost of spending precious dollars on imported fertilizer. Of course, agroecology is an entirely different paradigm than one in which technology is dropped into laps from foreign laboratories accompanied by a sheet of instructions. The programs require much more participatory education work, and much more investment in public goods, than the Malawian government and donors currently seem inclined to provide.

Agroecology is the third development vision battling for the future. In Malawi, it works. By growing cowpeas and groundnuts with maize -- expanding the range of crops -- Bezner Kerr's program has beat the fertilizer program's yield by 10 percent and increased nutrition outcomes too. Yet even agroecology has its limits. Fifteen percent of Malawians remain ultra poor, living on less than a dollar a day and unable to buy enough to eat. They tend to be people who are landless, or who have poor quality land and have to sell their labor at harvest time, just when they need it the most. They remain untouched by the Malawian miracle.

The future doesn't look terribly promising for agroecology. Concerned about the financial sustainability of its fertilizer subsidy program, the Malawian government is about to embark on a Green Belt project, in which thousands of acres will be irrigated to induce foreign investors to begin large-scale farming of sugar cane and other export crops. The foreign exchange brought in by this program, it is hoped, will bankroll the fertilizer spending. The result will help balance the country's current account, but as a consequence, thousands of smallholders are scheduled to be displaced to clear lands that will attract the kind of large-scale agriculture of which Collier would approve.

Particularly in the light of the new population projections for the 21st century, it seems foolish to stick to 20th century agricultural policy. Recall that the agroecological interventions in Malawi turned on women's empowerment. Nobel Laureate Amartya Sen has famously argued that there are few policies better placed to improve individual, family, and community lives (and lower fertility rates) than education -- particularly the education of women and girls. The prophesies presented to us by demographers vary widely -- change the assumptions, and you end up with a world of between 8 billion and 15 billion people. No matter what the future holds, though, it's clear that a world in which everyone gets to eat depends on women's empowerment -- and rather than treating that fact as something irrelevant to feeding the world, agroecology puts it right in the middle.

A great deal of past agriculture policy has been designed either economically to bomb villages in order to save them, or to administer a technological quick fix in order to postpone politics. Collier wants to get rid of peasants. New fads want to keep them, but keep them knee-deep in chemicals. Yet if we are serious about feeding the hungry, in Malawi or anywhere else, we need to recognize that the majority of the hungry are women, and that we need more public, not private, spending on those least able to command rural resources. Because when it comes to growing food, those who tend the land are anything but fools.

Michelly Rall/Getty Images

 

Raj Patel is a visiting scholar at University of California Berkeley's Center for African Studies, an Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy food and community fellow, and the author most recently of The Value of Nothing: How To Reshape Market Society and Redefine Democracy.

NORDENGREN

11:21 AM ET

May 5, 2011

And dont forget water

Hand in hand with Raj's observations is the same discussion about water. The charity Water.org and Unicef report 884 million people lack access to safe water supplies; approximately one in eight people.

Agriculture of any scale requires water, too along with the nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium.

A look at a world map shows the borders of many nations are divided along waterways, and access to that water will be contentious as the demands of the future grow.

 

ERIK WASSENICH

12:06 PM ET

May 5, 2011

Can we feed 10 billion people?

The population increase can be slowed down by moving most people into big cities. It will be easier to take care of the growing population and, as studies have shown, keep the earth cleaner, protect nature, increase the growth of plants and trees. In the cities is better medical care, more children go to school, families will be smaller - bringing up children there is more expensive. But women will be more aware of available birth control, plus will become part of the work force. Big cities, better health and education, reduced population growth!

 

DR. SARDONICUS

7:53 PM ET

May 5, 2011

The black mambas coiled in the shower stall.

Agroecology is the obvious way to go if the policy priority is nutritional autarchy, ecological sustainability and regional stability – and thereby U.S. strategic security, long-term. It promises to be expensive, messy and unrewarding, short-term.

If the priority is short-term gain for Western oligarchs – other priorities be damned – then dispossessing small freeholders, consigning them to megalopolis slums no better than concentration camps, and incorporating (literally and figuratively) their land into agro-combine collectives sounds much cheaper and more rewarding. Sterilizing the soil with massive infusions of fertilizer (and pesticides and frankencrops) is a distant, second best -- and absolutely unsustainable: fertilizer = gasoline. Who will the principal beneficiaries turn out to be? In reverse order, those who profited most from ecocide, those who profited most from industrial slavery and its legalistic replacements, or the rest of us?

If long-term American security favors global stability over short-term profit, who is going to deliver the bad news to the deep pockets? If not, how long are the rest of us (on both sides of the African/American divide) going to tolerate an unsustainable and strategically perilous status-quo ?

 

FELINE74

9:52 PM ET

May 5, 2011

At risk of playing devil's advocate . . .

. . . Is it possible that some areas of Malawi might actually benefit from some level of industrialized agriculture? I'm thinking, specifically, of areas where the supply of strong adults have been decimated by AIDS and/or migration to the cities. Teaching the remaining populace to operate and maintain agricultural machinery and irrigation systems may be one of the few ways of helping them feed themselves.

That said, sustainable irrigation and fertilizer practices are a must--regardless of the school of agriculture employed.

 

WINDWHEEL

2:42 PM ET

May 6, 2011

Raj Patel's ludicrous rhetoric.

Hungry or food insecure people can double their numbers in a generation. They don't always do this- the values and culture of their society must encourage pro-natalism and, in the case of, catastrophic Malthusian shocks exogenous Institutional help can also make a difference.
We are all descended from hungry people who were very good at doubling their numbers. Yet not all of us reading this are 'food insecure' and many of us, for the last couple of generations, haven't been particularly good at demographic expansion.
Why?
Well, we or our parents or grandparents or more distant ancestors moved away from places where hunger was endemic and made their homes where it was less so.
This much is obvious, but it is this obvious point that escapes the author of this article. Which begs the question, what actually is the argument that Raj Patel is making here? Well, he's talking about feeding the hungry which is a good thing and how apparently every approach hitherto got it terribly wrong and something exciting and new is happening in Malawi and there's some new concept called agro-ecology which is what the cool kids are into but like you squares won't ever really get it but anyway this is a really important article for everybody to read.

Re-reading the article, however, the only salient point that emerges is that Raj Patel, like all other holier-than-thou pi jaw artistes, is incapable of making a reasoned argument.

Take the first point he makes- 'Today, humanity produces enough food to feed everyone but, because of the way we distribute it, there are still a billion hungry.'
Is he unaware that people can move and be moved just as easily, no more easily, than food? What's more, when people move from places where they haven't enough to eat but keep making babies anyway, to places where food is available, education is available, jobs are available, social norms permit contraception and small families, then a SUSTAINABLE solution to the problem of hunger is reached.

Raj Patel tells us that what is happening in Malawi is important to feeding the hungry. He does not mention that the population of Malawi doubled in 24 years between 1979 and 2003- that's even after taking a hit from the AIDS epidemic. Clearly, if Malawi's people continue to mainly rely on agriculture, then its population will in fact rise to the 132 million level that Raj Patel mentions by the end of the century. No doubt, this happy outcome will be utterly out of reach if that evil economist Paul Collier gets his way and Malawi goes in for big agri-business with peasant proprietors having to work in food processing, manufacturing, services and so on.

That would be really terrible. They'd have to send their kids to school where they'd be looked after and have better nutrition with free school milk and meals and so on. Raj Patel tells us that when women have to go to the fields to cultivate the land, their children are at risk of neglect and malnutrition. In other words, to solve hunger you don't just have to give fertilizers and other inputs to small peasant proprietors but also provide an au pair to look after their kids and a home tutor and, because of the lack of refrigerators in rural areas, a guy to blow upon food items to keep them cool and prevent spoilage and so on.
The alternative is for people to quit agriculture to work in towns and cities. But that's what Paul Collier suggested and, for some reason, Paul Collier is a very evil man. Patel tells us Collier has contempt for peasants, but, Patel is at pains to reassure us, Collier's contempt rest upon something other than the facts. I'm beginning to hate this Collier guy. Why does he have so much contempt for the peasants? If it is based on 'something other than the facts'- it just makes him that much more despicable. Shame on you, Collier! Kindly stop being contemptuous of peasants. Next time you feel like doing it, take a cold shower or something. Just say no.

Malawi- which is smaller than Pensyllania but , over the last decade, has outstripped it in terms of population- must not listen to Collier. Otherwise they might become like Pensylvania- which is part of the U.S.A- a country which has fifty million 'food insecure' people which is more than triple the population of Malawi!

When oh when oh when will people living prosperous lives in the Cities and technologically advanced countries realize that their apparent wealth is actually poverty? There are literally billions of people in the West who are going to bed either hungry or too tired to do the washing up.

 

COMETLINEAR

5:18 PM ET

May 6, 2011

Nothing will change

Half the world will go hungry, half will go on with their lives without caring, and bloggers will continue to write articles about it.

 

TEJAS RAMAKRISHNAN

11:46 AM ET

May 27, 2011

Very true

Very true sir. In fact, many bloggers still continue to write about these things in the hope that something will change.

But they don't understand the fact that nothing is going to change unless we do decisive action, at times which can be rash.

I, as a blogger, am no longer looking to write on these stuff, but still talk about this on social networks. Like many bloggers, i too have started blogging in the insurance niche, especially on car insurance comparison. Who can complain? It is a good niche to write in...

 

PHILBEST

10:47 PM ET

May 6, 2011

Non-circular reasoning

Excuse me; is population increases in Africa NOT evidence that they are gaining the capacity to feed more and more people? If they couldn't, their population wouldn't increase, would it?

Africa actually has the POTENTIAL to be a substantial net exporter of food if they sorted their culture and politics out.

First world countries actually need to STOP subsidising and producing agricultural surpluses that depress world food prices. By the way, the "terms of trade" for food and agriculture have been on a strong NEGATIVE trend for decades, even if there is the odd blip upwards. This is hardly a sign of a TREND to "running out of food", quite the opposite. In fact, the population increase we are discussing is an encouraging CONSEQUENCE of increased food production, NOT a NEW PROBLEM that we need to decide how to cope with.

 

TEJAS RAMAKRISHNAN

2:28 AM ET

May 26, 2011

Feeding 10 billion people

Feeding 10 billion people is possible if governments start promoting agriculture, use less wasteful processes, make stringent laws to stop using agricultural land for other purposes, and making legislations to enforce these..

The issue is that people are starving even now, and let alone consider when world population reaching 10 billion...

The current development phenomenon taking place in the electronic frontier with technologies like electronic voice phenomena and all must be brought to the filed of agriculture too. Change is needed. evp is needed.

 

RONALDO

11:05 PM ET

May 30, 2011

A look at a world map shows

A look at a world map shows the borders of many nations are divided along waterways, and access to that water James will be contentious as the demands of the future grow.

 

OK RIBEIRO

12:41 PM ET

June 3, 2011

Can the World Feed 10 Billion People?

The population increase can be slowed down by moving most people into big cities. It will be easier to take care of the growing population and, as studies have shown, keep the earth cleaner, protect nature, increase the growth of plants and trees. In the cities is better medical care, more children go to school, families will be smaller - bringing up children there is more expensive. mesothelioma But women will be more aware of available birth control, plus will become part of the work force. Big cities, better health and education, reduced population growth!

 

STUARTHYBRAY

12:49 PM ET

June 3, 2011

Exploding global population

This is true: First world countries actually need to STOP subsidising and producing agricultural surpluses that depress world food prices. By the way, the "terms of trade" for food and agriculture have been on a strong NEGATIVE trend for decades, even if there is the odd blip upwards. This is hardly a sign of a trend to "running out of food", quite the opposite. In fact, the population increase we are discussing is an encouraging consequence of increased food production, not a new problem that we need to decide how to cope with. medical malpractice If long-term American security favors global stability over short-term profit, who is going to deliver the bad news to the deep pockets? If not, how long are the rest of us (on both sides of the African/American divide) going to tolerate an unsustainable and strategically perilous status-quo ?