Dear China: Help Us Fix Pakistan

The world's two superpowers must work together to fix the world's most broken country.

BY PATRICK C. DOHERTY | MAY 9, 2011

The war of words is officially on. The killing of Osama bin Laden has shone a harsh light on the fraught U.S.-Pakistan relationship.

In Washington, lawmakers from both sides of the aisle are angrily questioning how it's possible that Pakistan didn't know about the whereabouts of Osama bin Laden as he hid for years under their noses in Abbottabad, a military garrison town. In Islamabad, Prime Minister Yousuf Gilani lashed out at the United States, calling it "disingenuous" to believe that Pakistan could have been "in cahoots" with al Qaeda. Whatever the case, the U.S. strategic calculus in South Asia is now in flux. What is Washington's best opportunity to use this watershed moment to restore stability to Pakistan? Partner with China.

Unfortunately, the debate on Capitol Hill has quickly fallen into two polarized and short-sighted camps. In the Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearings last week, both Democrats and Republicans used bin Laden's death to justify an accelerated withdrawal from Afghanistan. Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.), the ranking member on the committee, argued, "It's exceedingly difficult to conclude that our vast expenditures in Afghanistan represent a rational [strategy]." Other lawmakers have called for renewed pressure on Islamabad to take direct action against anti-U.S. militant bases in Pakistan, such as the Quetta Shura and the Haqqani network.

Neither path is likely to work. Abandoning Afghanistan for a third time since 1989 is not going to et us there -- indeed, each time the United States neglects the country, it gets worse. And strong-arm tactics won't work either: A gambit to withhold military or civilian assistance is also not going to force Islamabad to change its strategic calculus, which is rooted in decades of deep mistrust of the United States. Furthermore, because of continued U.S. dependence on Pakistani supply routes into Afghanistan and Pakistani intelligence services' ability to unleash terrorist devastation such as the 2008 Mumbai attacks, calling Pakistan's bluff could be disastrous.

It's time to return to the fundamentals when it comes to U.S. interests in Pakistan. Ultimately, Washington desires a prosperous, sustainable, and secure South Asian region that does not remain a base for al Qaeda and its affiliates, or a likely flashpoint for a nuclear exchange.

Understood this way, U.S. interests are broadly shared by China, Pakistan's primary ally and a major investor in the country's economic success. That's a point President Barack Obama should drive home to Chinese officials this week, as Washington hosts the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue. Indeed, the late Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke made a similar case to the Chinese in Beijing.

To date, China's relationship with Pakistan -- with which it has shared military technology and invested in major infrastructure projects -- has only enabled that South Asian nation's unstable status quo. When it comes to military hardware, China has shared ballistic missiles such as the short-range DF-11, is jointly producing the JF-17 advanced fighter with Pakistan, and has provided its ally with anti-ship cruise missiles, among other weapons. China also built the massive multimodal port in the southern city of Gwadar, along with a highway and rail link connecting it to China. Indeed, the relationship is so strong that, at the request of Beijing, the Pakistani military stormed Islamabad's Red Mosque in 2007 to liberate 10 Chinese nationals, a move that crystallized the Pakistani Taliban as an anti-government movement.

Nevertheless, there are two important points of convergence between Beijing's long-term interests and Washington's. First, China is concerned with preventing Islamist terrorism from disrupting its Central Asian energy routes and its restive western region, Xinjiang, which borders Pakistan. China is actively securing natural gas and oil reserves as far as Turkmenistan on the Caspian, rebuilding the old Soviet-era pipelines to feed its western frontier and crossing territory that hosts a majority Muslim population.

Secondly, China has a stake in promoting sustainable, pan-Asian prosperity in the medium-to-long term to fuel its torrid economic growth. China -- and neighboring India -- are undertaking a monumental frenzy of urbanization. A study prepared by McKinsey estimates that approximately 375 million Chinese and 250 million Indians will move from villages to cities over the next 20 years. This growth will require a substantial productivity increase across all economic sectors -- but along the China-India periphery, the question of whether this massive urbanization will be sustainable hinges on higher levels of food production.

This is where Chinese, U.S., and Pakistani interests powerfully intersect. China needs a marked increase in Pakistani agricultural productivity, while America needs Pakistan to build a prosperous economy and a moderate political order that sees its neighbors to the northwest and east as economic opportunities -- rather than threats. Land reform is key to creating a win-win situation for all three countries.

Farm productivity in Pakistan is stuck between 17 and 50 percent of its potential, according to research from the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics. Improved agriculture requires better-educated farmers who own their own land and are incentivized to make use of sustainable methods that also boost their production. Even Cuba figured this one out.

Political moderation requires the rise of a phenomenon that does not yet exist in Pakistan -- a competent and legitimate political party with a reform mandate. Pakistan's patronage pyramids -- run by powerful family dynasties -- are today inseparable from the civilian political parties they control. They are equally responsible for the status quo: economic failure and the government's sheltering of Islamist militant groups, despite billions of dollars in U.S. foreign assistance. At the root of that corruption is Pakistan's system of semi-feudal land ownership, which, ironically, the Chinese Communist Party is more than happy to prop up.

There is little time to waste: Commodity prices are nearing record highs, the fighting drags on in Afghanistan, and the people of Pakistan are hurting. In 2009, the year before the devastating monsoon floods that displaced some 20 million people, the United Nations judged that half of the Pakistani population was food insecure. Two-thirds of Pakistanis are living in rural areas and relying directly or indirectly on agriculture, with at least 24 percent of Pakistanis living on less than $2 a day.

A green revolution in the Pakistani agricultural belt could forge an independent farming class in the countryside that could remake Pakistan both politically and economically. With a simultaneous effort to formalize property rights in urban areas, a moderate and stable middle-class would have the best chance to peacefully reassert the civilian government's full authority. In short, prosperity and self-reliance will lay the foundation for a government that is willing to embrace the Asian economic growth narrative and free itself of the need to bind the nation together using a narrative of perpetual external threats.

But without deep reforms in Pakistan, China will not get what it needs out of its dysfunctional ally -- and neither Beijing nor Washington will be able to convince Islamabad to end its dangerous dalliance with South and Central Asian terrorist groups. Together, however, these two superpowers can succeed where, individually, each would fail.

AAMIR QURESHI/AFP/Getty Images

 

Patrick C. Doherty is the director of the Smart Strategy Initiative at the New America Foundation. The views expressed are his own.

JAYCAL

7:01 PM ET

May 9, 2011

Such a big help...

China has been such a big help in fixing North Korea... so naturally we should expect them to help us fix Pakistan... success guaranteed...

 

CARDSHARP

9:08 PM ET

May 9, 2011

Their response, Dear United States....

Bugger off.

kidding aside, why should China help us when we'll constantly bad mouthing them and delivering holier than thou verdicts about human rights.

 

JAYCAL

10:10 PM ET

May 9, 2011

Why should China help?

Cardsharp wrote "why should China help us when we'll constantly bad mouthing them and delivering holier than thou verdicts about human rights."

You are naive. Whether the US speaks well or poorly of China doesn't make any difference to its behavior. The Chinese Communist Party acts in its self-interest first, in the interest of its countrymen second, and doesn't really care much about anything else.

If the Chinese Communist Party believed in being honorable, then it would have helped with Pakistan. That unfortunately is not the situation.

 

NICOLAS19

9:59 AM ET

May 10, 2011

American chivalry

Why on Earth would China help the US with Pakistan?
- US needs Pakistan to allow access to its territory, not China
- US needs Pakistan to allow military strikes within its territory, not China
- US needs Pakistani help with the Taliban, not China

Yet it is the US constantly black-mouthing, undermining and discrediting the Pakistani government, not China. I bet the Chinese are more than happy with a nuclear Pakistan, keeping India on its toes.

So, why would it exactly be the honorable thing to help out a competing power with its problems? Does the US help with Taiwan? No. Does the US help with Tibet? No. Does the US help with Japan? No. Foreign policy was never a rose garden.

The US is the world's No. 1 power. Act like one, don't go whining to the No. 2 if things refuse to go your way.

 

JAYCAL

10:17 AM ET

May 10, 2011

Keeping India on its toes

NICOLAS19 wrote "I bet the Chinese are more than happy with a nuclear Pakistan, keeping India on its toes"

Yes, the Chinese are happy, and so they have helped Pakistan with missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads etc.

But though they are happy, they are also stupid. If India and Pakistan end with with a 10,000 nuclear missiles, and go to war, and Pakistan attacks India with Chinese-designed nuclear missiles, then the Indians may say "These missiles that Pakistan is attacking us with came from China, so how about sending half our missiles at Pakistan and half at China. We have enough missiles to destroy both countries completely".

Nuclear weapons need more maturity than either Pakistan (the supplier of nuclear technology to North Korea etc.) or China has shown.

 

GENERALHUJINTAO

6:59 AM ET

May 12, 2011

If the Chinese Communist Party believed in being honorable,

Well,.... NOT only "beauty", but also "honorable", lies in the eyes of the beholder, though!

 

TOCHARIAN

12:16 AM ET

May 10, 2011

the new hegemon?

China definitely would love to become the new hegemon replacing the the US ("the old hegemon" in the words of Chinese 50 centers).
Look how "helpful" China is in "stabilizing" (Sino-Orwellian-speak) despotic regimes in pariah states such as North Korea, Burma, Sudan, etc. Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran would be big strategic "catches" for China. Right now they are probably busy reverse-engineering the stealth helicopter from the pieces Pakistan gave them.

 

TOCHARIAN

12:16 AM ET

May 10, 2011

the new hegemon?

China definitely would love to become the new hegemon replacing the the US ("the old hegemon" in the words of Chinese 50 centers).
Look how "helpful" China is in "stabilizing" (Sino-Orwellian-speak) despotic regimes in pariah states such as North Korea, Burma, Sudan, etc. Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran would be big strategic "catches" for China. Right now they are probably busy reverse-engineering the stealth helicopter from the pieces Pakistan gave them.

 

SWK

5:42 AM ET

May 10, 2011

ok devil's advocates

Granted, the proposition that China could help us turn the tide, is possibly hard to swallow. Never mind that the lynchpin in Mr. Doherty's plan is the growth of a Pakistani middle class - which will take at least another decade to see fruition.

Still, for arguments sake, I think its viable. Or at least as viable as other "win the war" strategies. It particularly appeals to me because it is largely economically based, and thus, in my eyes holds more international clout. Because it often is "all about the money."

And... i think JAYCAL was write when he wrote, "... Whether the US speaks well or poorly of China doesn't make any difference to its behavior. The Chinese Communist Party acts in its self-interest first..." However, that doesn't make China's involvement a moot point. If they really are only concerned in self interests, then why take steps to make our desired actions also in thier best interests? I'm not a international economist so I'll not propose to know how to go about such a thing. However, I do know something about marketing...

Perhaps I've oversimplified the situation. However, overall, I like the idea.

SwK

 

MUBSHIRAKRAM

7:42 AM ET

May 10, 2011

For a change, fix this condescending tone toward Pakistan

i am a pakistani and read with great interest all that appears on the FP vis-a-vis my country. it amuses me the level of knowledge and understanding that the writers have about pakistan and the claims they make along with strategies they keep proposing. case in piont: this article about china fixing pakistan.

it would be though nice if things could be first fixed at your end, and this is true both for individual (writers) and organizations working/watching pakistan. this is a huge country with a complex political mosaic and ever more intricate security paradigm, internal and external. the 'magic wand solutions' conceived thousands of miles away could work better to address the glaring failures of the us and its allies in afghanistan instead of proposing godly formulas for my country. more interesting is the fact that these 'experts' hardly get to lay their boots on the ground and keep producing articles that could be intellectually honest but practically stupid.

but nevertheless, subject of this humble post should also attract some attention. and if not; then keep on staying stupid!

 

NICOLAS19

10:11 AM ET

May 10, 2011

pure colonialism

I'm not form Pakistan, but I know what you mean. One always reads about how "failed" a country is, how to "fix" it, and how the US should "do it for them". Very much like the colonial empires, stating that the "primitive natives" need a strong hand, because they are too stupid to do what they "should" (read: what the master wants).

I'm not starting a colonialist rant here, but it is ridiculous to read time and time again as another genius suddenly discovers how the entire world should change to fill America's needs.

 

PDUBEY

9:44 AM ET

May 10, 2011

need to fix

There is a desperate need to fix the problem whatever be the ground situation for the citizens of the country . The reason is that the other nations have suffered direly . US has lost $ 400 billion in Af-Pak and now would be thinking if it was being setup all this time by the two faced assistance . It's neighbours have been affected by the export of terrorism which is poised to enter other countries too. Nuclear technology was sold almost as easily as a McDonald burger and it's gone unpunished.. So it's not that we can leave the country alone . It's upto the country to decide who can be the stakeholders in it's progress . Clearly it does not see eye to eye with the US . Why not invite China in for a much bigger role whereas all the Chinese seem interested in is military exports and ports & roads in certain areas only ,to protect it's trade ..

 

MARTY MARTEL

4:00 PM ET

May 10, 2011

Patrick Doherty is asking a wrong country

China will NOT help U. S. fix Pakistan anymore than it has helped U. S. fix North Korea until now as China-apologist Patrick Doherty has to know.

Patrick Doherty also has to know that China’s main purpose behind providing nuclear weapon technology to Pakistan and North Korea was to counterbalance India and Japan respectively.

As such China has created this Pakistan problem just as China created North Korea problem by providing nuclear weapons technology to both countries. If China would NOT have provided nuclear weapons technology to Pakistan, American foreign policy honchos would not have to worry about Islamic fundamentalists getting hold of nuclear weapons if they take over Pakistan.

Why did Pakistani prime minister Gilani ask Afghan president Karzai to dump U. S. and instead align with China? Does Patrick Doherty know?

China supports Pakistan’s takeover of Afghanistan since it fits in nicely with China’s plan to encircle India.

 

GENERALHUJINTAO

6:39 AM ET

May 12, 2011

China to "Help US Fix

China to "Help US Fix Pakistan" ??????
Dream on ! ! ! ! ! !

 

MATT BINNER

9:00 AM ET

June 8, 2011

If India and Pakistan end

If India and Pakistan end with with a 10,000 nuclear missiles, and go to war, and Pakistan attacks India with Chinese-designed nuclear missiles, then the Indians may say "These missiles that Pakistan is attacking us with came from China, so sázkové kancelá?e how about sending half our missiles at Pakistan and half at China. We have enough missiles to destroy both countries completely.One always reads about how "failed" a country is, how to "fix" it, and how the US should "do it for them". Very much like the colonial empires, stating that the "primitive natives" need a strong hand, because they are too stupid to do what they "should" (read: what the master wants).the 'magic wand solutions' conceived thousands of miles away could sázkové kancelá?e work better to address the glaring failures of the us and its allies in afghanistan instead of proposing godly formulas for my country. more interesting is the fact that these 'experts' hardly get to lay their boots on the ground and keep producing articles that could be intellectually honest but practically stupid.