The New Seeds of Terror

In eliminating Osama bin Laden, the United States may have unwittingly set the stage for a wider terrorist offensive on Western targets.

BY JOHN ARQUILLA | MAY 10, 2011

The trouble with "high-value targets" is that their value may not be so high. During the years it took to find and terminate al Qaeda's No. 1, about 20 No. 3s have been killed. The problem is that No. 1s are not essential to overall operations, and in a network, everybody is No. 3. Al Qaeda, now one of the flattest, most decentralized networks in the world, will live on.

A rash of recent terrorist attacks by al Qaeda affiliates in Iraq, Morocco, and Yemen, and a thwarted plot in Germany, suggest that the network may even be mounting a small-scale, but still global, new terror offensive. The lack of "spectaculars" should not be seen as a sign of a weakening al Qaeda, but rather as an indicator of a shift in strategy. Watch for more small strikes in the weeks and months ahead, launched around the world.

Indeed, the death of Osama bin Laden may actually facilitate al Qaeda's transition from a hub-and-spokes network -- with Waziristan as the hub -- to a "mesh" network composed of small, loose-jointed cells distributed globally. This new organizational design was the dream of al Qaeda's top strategist, Abu Musab al-Suri ("the Syrian"). He was apparently much inspired by Robert Taber's classic The War of the Flea, on which he lectured to aspiring jihadists in the 1990s. But he built quite a bit on this foundational work.

Al-Suri, who likely plotted the 2004 Madrid train bombing that caused the fall of the Spanish government and the withdrawal of Spanish troops from Iraq, has been in custody for over five years. His name is scarcely known to the mass publics of the world, and to surprisingly few in the military. But his ideas, articulated at great length -- clocking in at some 1,600 pages -- in his e-book The Global Islamic Resistance Call, seem to have carried the day in setting al Qaeda's new course. He and bin Laden used to spar over this approach, in which links to the core were to be almost completely severed in favor of local cells' freedom to chart their own courses and plan their own violent campaigns.

BANARAS KHAN/AFP/Getty Images

 SUBJECTS: NATIONAL SECURITY
 

John Arquilla teaches in the special operations program at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School. His latest book is Insurgents, Raiders and Bandits.

PETERD

10:13 PM ET

May 10, 2011

Al-Qaeda is still present in

Al-Qaeda is still present in Iraq and pursues its operations in the country, so its revenge after the assassination of bin Laden is likely

 

MARTY MARTEL

5:44 AM ET

May 11, 2011

Deliberately ignoring 'existing seeds of terror'

It is NO use to cry over the possibility of ‘new seeds of terror’ when we are deliberately ignoring existing ones.

Previous US ambassador Anne Patterson to Pakistan, wrote in a secret review in 2009 that ‘Pakistan's Army and ISI are covertly SPONSORING four militant groups - Haqqani‘s HQN, Mullah Omar‘s QST, Al Qaeda and LeT - and will not abandon them for any amount of US money‘, as diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks show.

Ambassador Patterson had NO reason to mislead her own State Department and U. S. government.

And yet Hillary Clinton’s State Department keeps up the pretense that Pakistan is U. S. ally in its fight against terrorism.

Hillary Clinton’s State Department keeps buying the Pakistani malarkey that ’nuclear weapons are in danger of falling in the hands of Islamic fundamentalists if Pakistani government collapses’.

How can Pakistan be in danger of falling to the Islamic fundamentalists if Pakistani Army and ISI are SPONSORING those very Islamic fundamentalists led by Osama bin Laden, Haqqani, Mullah Omar and Hafiz Saeed as reported by ambassador Patterson?

 

BLUE13326

9:28 AM ET

May 11, 2011

The problem with this kind of

The problem with this kind of analysis is that it's like a belief in God: You start with your premise, and then everything gets interpreted to buttress that premise, even the absence of proof. The fact is, outside of killing their fellow Muslims, al-Queda's terrorism attempts over the past several years have been pretty ass-hat. Maybe this is evidence of some superior strategy they have developed, I really don't know. But it has real-world consequences because of the massive expense of resources to combat this supposedly great threat. So...say we go about 6 months without a major Western terror success by them...will you then interpret this as further evidence of their master strategy? Or will you have the flexibility of mind to use this additional data to rethink your premises?

 

JBROCKLE

12:13 PM ET

May 11, 2011

Hehe

Couldn't have put it better myself.

 

JOEYFOTO.FR

9:42 AM ET

May 11, 2011

Terrorist roots...jt

No movement in the Muslim world is turning to these losers for leadership.

They offer 7th century solutions to 21st century problems... they are a cruel joke and a disgrace to Islam and to whatever enlightenment exists throughout the region.

There are a lot of people in the world. There is bound to be a large number of fools. We should focus more on the creeps that fuel these fools... the Salafist fanatics of Saudi Arabia who spread malignancy with petro-euro; the double-dealers in Pakistan; the growing incoherence of Iran and the depleted force of Syria...

Given the level of ignorance, misinformation and desperation in the Muslim world, there will never be a shortage of idiots who are willing to believe nonsense, in exchange for a pat on the head, a kick in the pants or ten bucks.

We need to focus less on the stink-blossoms and cut off the roots.

 

NIKOS_RETSOS

11:21 AM ET

May 11, 2011

The New Seeds of Terror!

Bin Laden's killing would surely anger his disciples. But bin Laden's burial, and the rebuke of the U.S. by bin Laden's son for dumping his father body in the sea is angering all Muslims. The wole Muslim world seems to be disgusted with the way bin Landen's body was dumped overboard like a bag of trash in the Indian Ocean. The ritual of human burial in every civilization, whether it it is Chinese, European, American Indian, Inca or African, has always followed a respectable protocol. But the truth about bin Laden's is that the U.S. wanted him to "vanish" from the face of the earth because his grave would have become a shrine for every Muslim who hate America.

Unfortunately, that one-sided thinking is considered a sacrilege even for Muslims who "do not" hate us. Worse yet, it was ordered by a president who when took office promised to repair the U.S. relations with the Muslim world! Now the Muslims say "Obama who?" And in both the Muslim world, and in a large American segment of the population, he is considered just another Bush in a democratic garb.

Obama's shine in the headlines and his rise in the polls would probably turn out to be fleeting. The housing market is still falling; the economy is still sputtering; our 10-year
war in Afghanistan has stalled; our Pakistani partners are chaffing at our cow-boy tactics in their territory; our effort to infiltrate Al Qaeda by promoting the American undercover agent Anwar Awlaki as the leader of Al Qaeda in Yemen has failed miserably, and the real Al Qaeda leader in Yemen, Nashir al-Wahishi, warned the U.S. today to expect reprisals for bin Laden's death (AFP, May 11, 2011)

In addition to the U.S. disrespect for bin Laden's burial, the PBS magazine "Frontine" broadcasted the "Kill/Capture" documentary about bin Laden and the Afghan war, and the whole
theme centered around total disregard of the U.S. forces searches and killing of innocent civilians that increased the anti-U.S. hostility in Afghanistan. Worse yet, Western human rights activist and investigators in Afghanistan sided with the Taliban, and disputed General Petraeus excuses and falsehoods. (PBS, May 10, 2011)

The verdict: Obama may seem glamorous here for the moment. But looking at the U.S. standing overseas, it is nearing the bottom. And that it is going to get worse, not better.
Plus, the housing, unemployment, high gas prices, public debt, tornadoes destruction, the Mississippi flooding, state budgets in the red – and going deeper, prices inflation while we are still in a recession, and Obama’s failure to do anything to alleviate the suffering of the poor and average American for almost 3 years are problems that won’t vanish like bin Laden’s body on election day! Nikos Retsos, retired professor

 

ROMAN GIL

1:39 PM ET

May 11, 2011

Smart Power Vs Dumb Power

The Chinese Commies announced that they now have a railroad connecting China with Europe, which is the biggest market for Chinese products. They are "helping" the bankrupt NATO countries by buying their government debt. They announced last year that they have a controlling interest in Iraq's oil and boasted that they are already receiving Iraqi oil from their Chinese owned oilfields. The bombs that are falling on the Muslim countries are financed by debt and represent nails in our own coffins.

If we don't stop intervening in the Muslim world, we will end up like the former interventionist global power, the mighty Soviet Union that collapsed in 1991. Or worse, the Muslims may detonate a few nuclear bombs in America and Europe; after all, they get to kill their enemies and will be rewarded with paradise for killing the foreign devils.

The thousands of Libyan soldiers that we killed with our NATO partners have no families, so we are not creating new enemies. Gadaffi is so hated that his people cannot overthrow him without American and now NATO bombing. The NATO bombs are harmless to civilians. Killing Gadaffi's son and his children in their own home is not terrorism. America is bankrupt but we can afford to spend in Libya a mere billion or so a month from the $1.65 Trillion that the Federal government must beg and borrow this year. Guess whom they will beat this debt money out of?

We created two wonderful paradises in Iraq and Afghanistan so we have a proven track record in successful "nation building" and "democracy building". The people of Iraq and Afghanistan love us and are grateful. The Egyptian people also love us for supporting the Mubarak dictator with $1.5 billion annually for over 30 years etc. We really know how to win friends and influence people.

Roman Gil
http://roman-gil1.blogspot.com

 

CNA

10:35 AM ET

June 5, 2011

If we don't stop intervening

If we don't stop intervening in the Muslim world, CNA we will end up like the former interventionist global power, the mighty Soviet Union that collapsed in 1991.

 

ELI

8:53 PM ET

June 6, 2011

Seeds of Terror

Indeed, the death of Osama bin Laden may actually facilitate al Qaeda's transition from a hub-and-spokes network -- with Waziristan as the hub -- to a "mesh" network composed of small, loose-jointed cells distributed globally. This new organizational design was the dream of al Qaeda's top strategist, Abu Musab al-Suri ("the Syrian"). Search for best daily deals. He was apparently much inspired by Robert Taber's classic The War of the Flea, on which he lectured to aspiring jihadists in the 1990s. But he built quite a bit on this foundational work.

 

KOTTAMALLI

9:06 PM ET

June 6, 2011

Bin Laden's killing

An interesting point, as said above "Bin Laden's killing would surely anger his disciples. But bin Laden's burial, and the rebuke of the U.S. by bin Laden's son for dumping his father body in the sea is angering all Muslims. The wole Muslim world seems to be disgusted with the way bin Landen's body was dumped overboard like a bag of trash in the Indian Ocean. The ritual of human burial in every civilization, whether it it is Chinese, European, American Indian, Inca or African, has always followed a respectable protocol. But the truth about bin Laden's is that the U.S. wanted him to "vanish" from the face of the earth because his grave would have become a shrine for every Muslim who hate America."

 

DANNY41

7:00 PM ET

June 8, 2011

Another will rise

Really the US should come up with something better then inter venting these political statements this way. They know another leader is already present to take over Bin Laden's job.

How would we react if there where Muslim army people every day in our streets? It's really something to think about and it's not so weird there is much much hate with this religion. I don't want to speak this right, no no. But really.. what can we do about it? It's a game about money, oil and endless power.