Syria in Splinters

Even from the streets of Damascus, it's hard to tell whether Syrian President Bashar al-Assad or the country's determined opposition is winning the battle for the silent majority.

MAY 16, 2011

One dissident, who has mainly steered clear of the fray, noted that it was still "astounding" that the opposition was able to muster the numbers that it did, given that many towns were pinned down and anyone who protests faces the risk of death. "Last Friday was the worst because there is a sense they [the regime] haven't broken it," says the dissident. "The army and security are stretched and tired, and look how many people are still out."

There is disagreement about how many are taking to Syria's streets. Viewed through the narrow lens of YouTube clips, analysts in Damascus estimated the protesters' total numbers at anywhere between 100,000 to 1 million at the most.

"It is false to put Syria's protests in the same bracket as Egypt and Tunisia," says one local analyst. "But it is equally disingenuous to separate them entirely -- it's of the same inspiration but with different obstacles."

"Every protester in Syria is worth more than each in Egypt because for every one there may be another hundred too scared to do so," says Mahmoud, a 30-year-old office worker.

Syria's opposition movement is geographically fractured, which makes it difficult to judge its strength. Protests are scattered far and wide -- a fact seen as a weakness by some, because it prevents the opposition from uniting into a coherent movement, but also a testament to the widespread dissatisfaction with the Assad regime. From tiny villages along the Euphrates to the third-largest city of Homs, Syrians -- often only tens or hundreds of people -- have gathered. And with 3G Internet access down, news of some demonstrations only reaches Damascus days later.

The calm in central areas like Damascus can also be deceiving. Journalists typically trek around the Syrian capital's old city and then report on the absence of a desire for change when their subjects claim to be satisfied with the current regime. But this is an equally inaccurate picture -- many Syrians do not speak their minds with their friends, let alone strangers.

One notable group that has been conspicuously absent from Syria's protests -- in stark contrast with the uprisings that brought down the governments in Egypt and Tunisia -- is the top echelons of the country's young, well-off, and educated population. Many of these people, who are often foreign-educated, are either connected to the regime, have found a way to navigate its systems of patronage, or quite simply aren't interested in politics. "A bulky strand of middle-class, middle-educated, and politically active people are missing," bemoaned one young Damascene activist.

But two months of uncertainty, in which the government has stoked fears of sectarian strife and now abetted violence on Nakba Day, is taking its toll on a population eager for stability.

"Freedom, what freedom do protesters want?" asked a taxi driver from the southern city of Quneitra who took part in the pro-Palestinian protest on Sunday. "They should be happy with being able to walk around and not have strife all over the place."

But there is also truth to dissidents' and activists' claims that they are playing a long game and that their ranks are swelling. More people have been tempted to join, especially as the economy worsens. Several companies in Damascus have shortened working hours with a pay decrease. Tourism has dropped off, and foreign investors are looking away.

In cafes and taxis, political conversations take place in a manner never before seen in Syria under Assad or his father before him. Some of Syria's elite, which had thus far been insulated from the brutality wielded by the regime, have now been exposed to the reality of how Assad perpetuates his rule.

"I have worked for the government for several years and how can I continue when I see how they have treated the people?" says a female worker in one of the ministries. "I didn't think they would do this."

As the protests enter their third month, the more imminent danger is that continued violence may tempt protesters to pick up arms. Western diplomats in Damascus said there is evidence some already have, which may account for some, though not all, of the 120 police and security officers shot dead. While the movement has been generally peaceful, many in the tribal areas and in Talkalakh, a besieged city close to the Lebanon border where smuggling is rife, own weapons.

Even though the opposition movement faces significant obstacles, activists profess to believe that they're slowly winning over the silent majority that will either make or break their revolution.

"This might be a victory for the counterrevolution for the moment," says the dissident. "But the larger picture is still the same. The regime will go sometime -- but not overnight, in the way the media want. But what has happened so far has been revolutionary for Syria."

NIKOLAY DOYCHINOV/AFP/Getty Images

 

The writer is a journalist in Damascus, Syria. Foreign Policy has withheld the author's name due to security concerns.

TRUTH85

8:12 AM ET

May 17, 2011

The 'Remormer' president

It seems that the world is finally understanding that the younger Assad is no better than the elder Assad and that the delusions of a reformer president and a partner for peace have always been naive at best and stupid at worst.

The Syrian government is doing the exact same thing that Khaddafi is doing in Libya, but the world remains powerless to intervene in more than just mild sanctions and words of warning. The longer this goes on the more likely it will be that the army will split and that a civil war will occur which would result in instability in both Lebanon and Iraq.

The free people of Syria are fighting the bloodiest battle against the worst regime at the most crucial time in the modern history of the Arab world. What happens in Syria will have consequences in Lebanon, Iran, Iraq and the Palestinian Territories. There is a lot more at stake here than there is in Libya.

 

SAM.TOWERS2000

2:11 PM ET

May 17, 2011

The Sad Truth

The Assad regime is a forceful regime that should be removed. There is no quesiton abou that. The problem is who will replace him ? The current revolution is run by extreme Islamists. In the middle east, the news shows a very different picture of what is happening in Syria than in the west. They show beheadings (you can find those on You Tube), Soilders being murdered and people proclaiming Salafist Islamic Kingdoms within Syria. Further, I saw with my own eyes a demonstration on the Television chanting "Alawites to The Grave, Christians to Beirut". Is the the new Syria the west wants, one of Salafists?. I was 100% for the revolution in Egypt, but now, with Egyptian Christians under pressure by Islamists, one has to wonder. Iraq is another example of lack of maturity of the people in the region with hundreds of thousand of christians fleeing the country once is was "liberated" by the USA.

 

NISANUR

7:12 AM ET

May 22, 2011

Syria in Splinters

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MATT PETELICKY

5:59 PM ET

June 14, 2011

The current revolution is run

The current revolution is run by extreme Islamists. In the middle east, the news shows a very different picture of what is happening in Syria than in the west. They sázkové kanceláre show beheadings (you can find those on You Tube), Soilders being murdered and people proclaiming Salafist Islamic Kingdoms within Syria. Further, I saw with my own eyes a demonstration on the Television .