China's Port in Pakistan?

Pakistani officials have announced that the Chinese look favorably on taking over the operation of the Arabian Sea port of Gwadar close to the entrance of the Strait of Hormuz, and perhaps building a naval base for the Pakistanis there as well. The Chinese have apparently contradicted these claims, indicating that they have made no such decisions on these matters.

The fact that Pakistan should want deeper Chinese involvement with this strategically located port, even as the Chinese are hesitant to do just that, should surprise no one. Gwadar is where dreams clash with reality.

Indian Ocean Battleground?
Robert D. Kaplan's exclusive tour of the new center of geopolitics.

The Chinese have already invested $200 million in building a modern port in Gwadar. Furthermore, a presence of some sort at Gwadar makes estimable sense for Beijing in the abstract. China faces what has been called a "Malacca dilemma." It is too dependent on the narrow and congested Strait of Malacca between Indonesia and Malaysia for its oil and natural gas shipments from the Middle East to Chinese ports.

Thus, China has been engaged in port-building projects in Pakistan and Burma, which, someday, may be linked by roads and energy pipelines directly to China. Besides offering an alternative route for energy supplies, such new ports will be the 21st-century equivalent of 19th-century British coaling stations for China's budding maritime empire spanning the Indian Ocean. Once China has developed a blue-water navy to protect its sea lines of communications, it will require port access along the global energy interstate that is the Indian Ocean. For Pakistan's part, a robust Chinese presence at Gwadar would serve to check India's own strategic ambitions, as Islamabad leverages Beijing against New Delhi.

The problem is that these are all long-range plans -- and dreams. They conflict with messy ground-level realities. Visiting Gwadar for a week in 2008, I was struck not only by how isolated it was, between pounding sea and bleak desert, but how unstable was the region of Baluchistan, which lies immediately beyond the port in all landward directions. Ethnic Baluchi rebel leaders told me that they would never permit roads and pipelines to be built there, until their grievances with the Pakistani government in faraway Islamabad were settled.

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MARTY MARTEL

5:01 PM ET

May 27, 2011

China-Pakistan axis has already checkmated India

China provided nuclear weapons and ballistic missile technology to Pakistan while India hybernated.

India is totally surrounded by China’s ’string of pearls’. China also has fully neutralized India’s big power ambitions by creating a nuclear dagger pointed at India from Pakistan and Tibet.

India has nobody to blame but itself for delaying the development of its own nuclear weapons program until 1998. Even now Sonia-Singh’s India is sleeping in developing its nuclear weapons arsenal while Pakistan has overtaken India in terms of ready-to-use nuclear weapons.

HAMID

8:35 AM ET

May 28, 2011

Offense vs Defense

The Indian govt has always played defense when it comes to China-Pakistan axis. When China is building up Pakistan by "openly" transferring nuclear and missile technology despite the clear and present danger of Pakistan's many dangers, all India needed/needs to do is threaten and if necessary start to do the same to nations that have territorial disputes with China.

A weak state like Pakistan continues to successfully blackmail the entire world and India by the presenting it with a choice of either accepting Pakistan as is or risk even a worse scenario.

All the Indian govt requires is deliberate boldness and imagination as its private sector has shown. Unfortunately, that's too much ask of the present Sonia-Singh leadership. So here is the largest democracy in the world with one of the largest military and one of the fastest growing economies always pleading/complaining with other countries to "take care" of challenges that Pakistan/China pose to it ! What a pathetic picture the Indian govt portrays and then it wants to be "granted" a permanent membership of the UN Security Council ??

HBLA3456

2:18 AM ET

May 29, 2011

Not really

Let's not forget what the biggest and most authoritative presence in the Indian Ocean is: The United States of America. Obama has made a deliberate attempt to strengthen ties with India: with the nuclear deal in 2009, coupled with robust support for New Delhi's permanent UNSC bid. The US is the dominant force in the Indo-Pacific axis: it has 22 aircraft carriers to China's zero, it has bases both on the Arabian and African side (Bahrain and Djibouti) and the Pacific side (Hawaii, Philippines, Australia etc.).
In other words, India is becoming increasingly good friends with a naval and economic power vastly superior to China and its endemically unstable friends (Burma, Pakistan, etc.). And recent diplomatic indicators tell us that the US are keen on such a relationship.

PDUBEY

3:35 AM ET

May 30, 2011

more nukes ?

look Defence preparedness is a good thing ,but not at the cost of development when a sizeable population lives on moderate means . The next threat of use of nuclear weapons is from non-state actors .They may be used as instruments of policy by particular governments but I doubt if there'll be a high intensity conflict where those weapons are used . Todays wars are about assymetric warfare,terror attacks,precision strikes,strategic capture of territory of value . Most nations would not like to raise this level of conflict to a higher level ,except Israel. If there's a conflict then it will most probably be conventional conflicts as most governments know the cost of nuclear conflicts.

NICKCIN

1:50 AM ET

June 3, 2011

Really?

I'd not go that far... India's economy, maybe not as big as Chinese, getting stronger every day. Pakistan has not been that successful. They have been focusing on IT services, importing good like handmade jewelry but these won't get them anywhere.

KHALID RAHIM

12:50 AM ET

June 4, 2011

Re: China-Pakistan (AXIS or AXES)

Marty Martel and we love your bowling it makes our batsmen quiver, specially when you throw your yorkers followed by fast leg spins. Have you considered to
write about US-Israel Axis which is the root cause of preventing peace! But the word Axis cannot be used in their case or you would be dubbed anti-semitic.

JINX2

4:06 AM ET

Pakistan's Geo-political Strength

Mr. Kaplan may also like to read this excellent article which explains the geopolitical environment that exist in the region. Yes the geopolitical environment take a long time realizing but the drift is certainly clear.

http://www.eurasiareview.com/pakistans-geopolitical-dilema-china-or-us-viewpoint-from-pakistan-analysis-22032011/

Irrespective of the time-frame, the game has already begun. However, I agree with the author of the article linkedabove that Pakistan's grand design should be to convince both US and China to operate within a cooperative environment.

JARE

2:24 PM ET

For the Pakmil to hide behind....

Pakistan has survived the last 60 years wondering about one single thing- how its leadership would escape from an imagined Indian attack. This is the main reason why Pak wants the Taliban in afghanistan. Now that that game seems to the sputtering to a halt, pakistan is seeking other ways for 'escape' and what better than to pull china into that imaginary indo-pak conflict! Iam assuming pakistan is seeking a chinese pipeline that literally runs through one half of the country so that its leadership can hide behind the pipe and cry- Hey china china...see see India is attacking your pipe. how will u get your oil now? (and of course) Pakistan has always been a victim of terrorism!.

BENJAMINFRANKLIN

12:49 AM ET

Pakistan should awaken

When will the government of Pakistan awaken and notice who is attacking its army, its market places, its mosques? It is not India!

1:37 AM ET

June 1, 2011

Agree with Jare

Agree with Jare here ..It's a non existential threat . Public opinion & govt policies in India are not what would have been 2-3 decades back . India's economy is growing in the last decade and two.It has no intention of losing out on economic growth by a war,absorbing more people or territory that too a messy country,no intention in govt circles to even seek Pak controlled Kashmir parts. It's only concern should be & is to secure it's own borders,strengthen domestic security & involve all regions of it's country in it's growth story. So both the govt. & public have matured long back. Time for it's neighbour to do the same.

12:46 AM ET

Non-hegemonic?

China is non-hegemonic? There used to be this pacifistic little country called Tibet. Perhaps some of us remember it? Surely no one is naive enough to believe that Tibet has always been part of China? In no historic era did Chinese troops garrison in Tibet. In no historic era did the Chinese government ever appoint the rulers of Tibet. Tibetans have never written or spoken any Chinese language. The Chinese took Tibet because they could do so at no appreciable cost, not because of any legitimate claim to it.

BIG BOY

7:02 PM ET

Then what does that make the US?

There use to be a continent called America populated by a race of Native Americans, First Nations and Inuit until some people from across the Atlantic and brutally slaughtered, raped and stole the land from its rightful owner. Perhaps some of us remember it? Surely no one is native enough to believe that the continent of North America "belongs" to peoples of European ancestry. In no historic era did the European government ever appoint the rulers of the continent of America. Europeans have never written or spoken any Native American, First Nations or Inuit languages. The Europeans took the continent of America because they could do so at no appreciable cost, not because of any legitimate claim to it.

JBROCKLE

3:43 AM ET

May 31, 2011

Bad comparison

I don't really have an opinion when it comes to China and Tibet. Its unfortunate for Tibetans who want independence but in the end I think states will always try and maintain their territorial integrity and I don't really hold it against China for doing so.

Anyway, I'm pretty sure you can see that the comparison to the US is pretty facile and doesn't really stand up to analysis. The differences between a military occupation/annexation of a state and wholesale colonisation of a continent are pretty different things.

MAZO

12:58 AM ET

June 9, 2011

Apples and Oranges comparison...

What the Europeans did in North America and what the Chinese did to Tibet is like comparing Apples and Oranges. The Americans colonized North America that was largely ungoverned and largely untamed in an era when Europe was in turmoil. The Europeans who came to North America and made it their home didn't do so out of greed but mostly out of necessity to escape persecution, starvation etc.
China on the other hand attacked a sovereign nation on some bogus historical claim and now continues to essentially enslave and subjugate a native culture that is by all reasonable counts far superior to the native Han cultures. This "historic claims" rhetoric by the Chinese has also meant that they have had conflicts with ALL of their neighbors. The wars in Korea, Vietnam and against India are testament to this. Further these wars were not wars of self defense or police actions but rather wars to further territory and other hegemonic objectives as dictated by Mao to the mobs he held sway over.

Today, it is obscene to compare the plight of Tibetans in Tibet to the plight of the Native Americans in North America.

DEMOFACTOR

3:42 PM ET

China is in an expansion or not?...

Every country has the right to choose its friends, especially when it comes to neighborers. Pakistan is not an exception. But they have to respect others interests as well. American government interests in this region are very strong and the rise of China could create additional tensions in already politically and military pretty tough region.

PROQUESTIA

12:38 AM ET

Indeed it is

The security situation is indeed fraught with peril. The Chinese know this. They know that a pipeline network from Gwadar into Central Asia and China must await the political stabilization of Afghanistan -- and Pakistan, too karmaloop codes. Until such a day, Gwadar, while a potentially useful coaling station for a budding Chinese navy, constitutes, in essence, a road to nowhere.

AHSON HASAN

9:04 PM ET

Nothing surprising!

Loosely put, for all intents and purposes, Pakistan is China's bitch! China 'owns' Pakistan for all the infrastructure, military and political support it provides to Islamabad.

Pakistan, in turn, owes a great deal to China. Beijing has historically proven itself to be a worthwhile partner, a formidable ally that has stood by Pakistan in times of stress and tension.

China's record vis-a-vis Pakistan has been constant. Thanks to China's treacherous past with respect to India ( remember the Indo-China War 1962? ), Beijing came to Pakistan's help in the 1965 and 1971 wars against India. Subsequently Pakistan has played the China card effectively.

It hasn't been all a one-way traffic. The Sino-Pak relationship has worked out to the advantage of both sides. Pakistan played a major role in China's opening up to the West. Remember Ping Pong Diplomacy?

Pakistan has served China's needs as far as Beijing geographic hegemonic designs are concerned.

It is, therefore, a natural consequence of this paradigm that Pakistan is sold out to the Chinese in all respects. It will be foolhardy to even think for a second Pakistan will ever decline to fulfill China's wishes.

The news regarding the port of Gwadar is probably just one of those exceptional occasions when the story was leaked out to the Press. China could be occupying several other major strategic points in Pakistan.

This relationship makes Indian uncomfortable, and rightly so. Pakistan has encouraged insurgies in India at various points of history using Chinese weapons. Remember the Sikh uprising? The Kashmir unrest? The Kargil stupidity of 1998? The Mumbai November 2008 terrorist attacks?

It’s not all smooth and steady, however. Pakistan and its religious extremists have been instrumental in causing anxiety in the Chinese province of Xinjiang. Over the years the Chinese army has had to take some stern action in an effort to quell Muslim rebellion in the area. Remember the 2008 Olympics terrorist attack?

In any event, it is not even surprising to learn about the Chinese interest in Gwadar. Pakistan is down in the doldrums and needs friends like China and Saudi Arabia to 'protect' it because of the disastrous policies that it follows.

While the Chinese are interest in geographical, political and economic gains, the Saudis have knocked out Pakistan by gaining control over the country through the menace of Wahabism. Thanks to the Saudis, Pakistan is a totally screwed up polity, paralyzed by Talibanization and ripped apart by terrorism.

1:34 AM ET

Re: the Bitch.

Ahson Hasan were you born from the bitch's hind? Otherwise you would not be
barking like a little puppy sitting in your mistress'lap.

GREGORY M

8:25 AM ET

Cant we all just get along

Could you imagine how much more people in general could accomplish if we all just worked together and traded together? Wow, every country would be more rich and more prosperous and there would be so much less poverty. Its really a shame that technically this is not possible because of the current relationships between a lot of our countries today.

Its so unfortunate that this is the reality that we live in because like i said if we could trade worldwide brands then poverty would be much less a problem than it is right now. More jobs would be created and the crime rate would go down. Facts like 80% of a country is in poverty is disturbing to me. Why prevent something that prevents the world from having more wealthyaffiliates worldwide? This is pretty ridiculous that people cant work tofether worldwide to make the conditions for everyone better.

I know its virtually impossible with how big headed everyone is, but its definitely a shame. So many different countries have so many different kinds of views and cultures and stand points, sso this whole worldwide web of trading will more than likely never happen.

Its too bad because this could really expand the technology of our world.

PETERBERGEN

11:53 AM ET

Time to break up Pakistan

Blauchistan needs to be free. The Baluch people and their resources are being stolen by China and Pakistanis.

Second we need to encourage the Islamists of Pakistan to move into China. The Chnese have been tryanizing Islam in their western terrirotores which never accepted China in the first place.

So the Muslims of the world have a genuine right to fight the comminists of China the way they fought the Soviet Union.

1:25 AM ET

Deep Sea Ports?

During the second world war USAF was using the airbase at Jiwani
more closer to Iran compared to Gwader. US can sign a contract to
build Jiwani as a commercial port for air and sea cargo. Both US and China can transfer their goods for each other from one port to the other by land and complete the formalities before the Goods enter each others territory. US will also have opportunity to keep an
eye on straits of Hormuz. Although USSR was never interested in a warm-water base in this region, but Western(US) propaganda placed Pakistan in a serious situation with Moscow. Now that we all
are fighting the 'Chucky Dolls' we could accomodate Russia to help
build our port at Pasni, famous for her crustacean products. Last of
all we cannot forget UK and being member of Commonwealth; the
port of Karachi once came under dark clouds with silver lining to become the new HongKong with Altaf Hussain's help who now lives
in London protected by his English nanny! The French can have a share at each port. So please do not make a big issue about China
taking over Gwader and building railroad to China. US and Russia
could start a rail track to Afghanistan and connect Central Asia.If the French and Iranians are on good terms the railtrack between
the three former members of CENTO could open new avenue in
trade and tourism with EU.

1:29 AM ET

China's deal with the Devil.

China looks like an astute and smart player today by entrenching itself with failed or seriously damaged states like North Korea, Burma, Pakistan etc but this bet to entangle themselves with these rouges to leverage their disdain of the West to further China's strategic objectives will backfire in the long run. Using failed states to do one's bidding is like using a rabbid dog to fight your enemies, they may be potent initially but they will eventually turn on their master and then China will be the one who pays dearly.

Further, the Indians have an immense capability to either placate or contain malcontents. Already due to Chinese heavy handedness, all of South-East Asia is nervous and India is gaining enormous leverage in the region. Further, India's ability to use its "cultural" muscle to extend its influence is far more significant than the Chinese ability to retain influence through its economic muscle. So while China can make foray's into Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal due to anti-India discontent in these countries, it can never expect to turn these states anti-India tendencies to a pro-China tendency. This is keenly observable in how Pakistan's sole reason for strategic partnership wtth China is its anti-India and its anti-West stand.

In the long run, while India may not have the strategic acumen of the Chinese yet, the Chinese have not really made any "strategic partners" in South Asia either (barring Pakistan! ) .