The Virtues of Folding

President Obama has a bad hand in the poker game of Middle East peace. But bluffing or raising the stakes won't improve it.

BY AARON DAVID MILLER | MAY 30, 2011

"She crumbled," ace detective Phillip Marlowe observed in one of the greatest lines in Raymond Chandler's classic 1939 novel The Big Sleep, "like a new bride's pie crust."

And so, come to think of it, has the Obama administration's approach to Arab-Israeli peacemaking.

Thirty months in, a self-styled transformative president with big ideas and ambitions as a peacemaker finds himself with no negotiations, no peace process, no relationship with an Israeli prime minister, no traction with Palestinians, and no strategy to achieve a breakthrough.

Indeed, in the wake of the publicly orchestrated extravaganza also known as the Benjamin Netanyahu visit last week, we seem to have speechified ourselves farther away than ever from serious peacemaking. Israelis and Palestinians are running in the opposite direction: Mahmoud Abbas to virtual statehood at the United Nations in September; Netanyahu to the belief that Israel doesn't need a credible strategy to cope with what's coming.

There's great temptation in all of this to saddle the Obama administration with the lion's share of responsibility for this unhappy state of affairs. But that would be wrong, inaccurate, and decidedly unfair.

The president, to be sure -- perhaps with the best intentions and the worst analysis -- has made a complex situation more complicated. But the preponderance of blame surely rests with the locals' incapacity and unwillingness to get real and serious about what it would take to reach an agreement.

Let's be clear: The chance of a conflict-ending agreement (and I choose my words carefully here) that allows Israelis and Palestinians to resolve the four core issues -- borders, Jerusalem, security, and refugees -- appears to be slim to none. Anything short of that (borders first; an interim agreement, etc.) seems beyond the interest or will of the two sides to consider or take seriously. "Been there, done that," seems to govern Palestinian thinking. "I don't want to do that," seems to shape Israel's.

The reasons for this impasse aren't hard to identify.

There are big gaps on the big issues, even on territory (the least hopeless one) as evidenced by the brouhaha over Obama's mention of the June 1967 borders with mutually agreed swaps. The meaningless but oft-repeated line -- that everyone knows what the solution will be -- only serves to inspire false confidence and trivializes how hard it will be to get there.

Weak leaders, or at least leaders who are prisoners of their political constituencies (not masters of them), compound the problem. Bibi may want to be great, but coalition politics, ideology, and his own fears constrain him.

Abbas too wants legacy; but he's presiding over a national movement that despite newfound virtual unity with Hamas still looks like Noah's Ark: there are two of everything -- security services, charters, visions for Palestine, and patrons. It's a long way from the one gun, one authority, one negotiating position that is the essence of sovereignty -- and indispensable for a conflict-ending accord on the Palestinian side. Nor is the regional situation all that conducive for a breakthrough. (Or at least let's agree that it's an arguable proposition.)

Some believe that the transformative changes now loose in the Arab world have increased the incentives and the pressure for a deal. On one hand, democratic reforms and movements seem to be breaking out all over and the Arabs appear focused more on internal matters than wanting this issue resolved. On the other, Arab public opinion will now be more influential and could become more radicalized. So, let's hurry up and make a deal.

John Angelillo-Pool/Getty Images

 

Aaron David Miller is public policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and author of The Much Too Promised Land: America's Elusive Search for Arab-Israeli Peace. His new book, Can America Have Another Great President? will be published in 2012.

WAIT-A-MINUTE

12:33 PM ET

May 30, 2011

MidEast Peace

While we are asking Israelis and palestinians to take bold steps in the name of peacse, how about US taking a bold step first, and leading by example? At the vote in the UN Security Council, 14 countries out of15 voted to censure Israel for its illegal settlement activity, something that President himself had said in his Cairo speech. "America does not accept the legitimacy of contiued Israeli settlements". Yet at the UN, instead of walking the walk and taking a bold step, US vetoed the resolution, one country against 14 in a group of 15. As long as the US Congress is hungry for dollars from Israeli lobby, no speeches from President are going to bring peace to MiddleEast. We need a president who can take a bold step by himself first, then peace will follow.

 

BETZ55

5:01 PM ET

May 30, 2011

To Aaron David Miller

The recent unilateral moves by some nations to recognize Palestine now offer the best chance for a two-state outcome. The secret of the two-state solution is that it is actually really, really easy to accomplish.

If the U.S., by itself, declared recognition of Palestine, pretty much every other country would follow suit and, tada, there would be two states. The U.S. needs to weigh how much it wants a two-state outcome against how biased it is toward the israeli position.

It is very much in America's interest to make the two-state thing happen, so it will be interesting to see how israel and AIPAC lobbies the U.S. government to go against its own interests and continue to ignore the Palestinian nation.

Plus, U.S. unilateral recognition would immediately deprive terrorists of one of their most effective propaganda campaigns and instantly rehabilitate the U.S. image in the Muslim world. There's a lot of obvious reasons to recognize Palestine, including the fact that doing so is pretty much the only way to get to two states now. My question is, why SHOULDN'T the U.S. recognize Palestine?

Obama had two full years to lay out a coherent, energized vision of Middle East peace, pursue it, and realize it. It is sad indeed that the first African-Am¬erican president of the United States defends in israel exactly the kind of institutio¬nalized bigotry, apartheid oppression¬, and racism in israel the civil rights movement defeated in this country, a victory that made his election possible.

If there is one thing the Palestinians have learned in four decades of fruitless peace talks, it is that the only they will ever be allowed to have a state of their own is if they simply seize it for themselves.

Obama claims the U.S. will veto any such vote. Let’s call his bluff. Let’s find out if this president is ready to stand utterly alone on the world stage as the sole head of state refusing to recognize the existence of a Palestinian state just so he can appease an ally, israel, and it's isolating and delegitimzing lobby AIPAC, that over the last year has repeatedly gone of out its way to embarrass his administration and stifle his attempts at achieving a two-state solution.

You reference the Madrid Conference, yea, a whole lot of nothing resulted from that. You obviously haven't viewed the video of your buddy, netty, bragging about how he derailed Oslo either. How about Dennis Ross? This cheese whiz has been 'negotiating' for 30 years with no productive results to his name, the best israeli lawyer AIPAC dollars could buy in the US goverment.

The Likud Party charter flatly rejects the establishment of a Palestinian Arab state west of the Jordan River and stipulates that: “The Palestinians can run their lives freely in the framework of self-rule, but not as an independent and sovereign state.”

This israeli government is committed to that charter as well as to the Jewish holy war for land in Palestine as witnessed by the illegal settler squats terrorist acts everyday.

It has no interest in trading land it covets for a peace that might thwart further territorial expansion. It considers itself unbound by the applicable UN resolutions, agreements from past peace talks, the “Roadmap,” or the premise of the “two-state solution.”

nettyy has said no to a settlement freeze, no to sharing Jerusalem, no to the 1967 borders, no to the rights of Palestinian refugees. What are these if not Israeli preconditions on negotiations that erode any foundation of hope for the two-state solution? He was a mess the first time around and is proving to be a flaming mess the second time around.

If you actually want peace, you don’t build illegal settlement colonies in the Palestinian capital or on Palestinian land.

It is a matter of record that Abbas has negotiated with 18 israeli governments all the while israel continued it's apartheid rampage, land and resource theft, killings, and oppression all the while blaming the Palestinians.

What do you suggest; that Abbas sit down for another 18 years of ‘negotiations’ while israel continues it's apartheid rampage? That israel, again, uses ‘negotiations’ as a cover for settlement activities He has wised up to the problems of his previous approach. More power to him.

While he declines negotiations the world is now seeing that it's not the Palestinians that were the problem but the Israelis all along.

The Palestinains have demanded the 1967 borders for recognition of Israel as a jewish state and good for them. For all of Bibi's whining about Abbas’ 'preconditions' we all knew netty had his and would present them as excuses for derailing the peace process.

But, a couple good things will come out of this. The Palestinians will eventually have to thank you, the israelis for building them all those nice houses free of charge and of course the jews can stay and live in Palestine if they want to but they will be subject to Palestinians laws - up to and including home dispossession.

Better yet, ship all those illegal settler terrorist squats to the Negev who complain, burn land, tear down olive trees, burn mosques, run over, kill, and beat Palestinians and let them be 'pioneers' there. They deserve to wander in their own desert for the next 40 years.

You, and your other hapless pro israelis, act like none of us here can read, disseminate information, google, or see the reality that the israelis are no partner for peace.

Someone who invades, kills, bombs, oppressess, occupies, and then tries like hell to spin it inspite of all the facts out here, is not interested in peace and that's israel.

And one more thing, for how long did you think that Israel would be allowed to arrest and piss on Palestinian children, steal and destroy Palestinian land, enforce a barbaric siege against Gaza, murder peaceful protesters, look the other way while settlers murder Palestinians with impunity and just get away with it?

The Palestinians are not the problem, israel, their failed policies, oppression of legitimite heirs to Palestine, apartheid and ethnic cleansing, their moldavian thug of an FM, the ragtag IDF, and the systematic effort to wipe out a culture and people who were there before them is the problem.

Israel is the problem. And until you get it Aaron, israel will go on destroying itself, if not demographically, then morally. Is that clear enough for an obtuse person like you to understand? Good.

 

MUSE

1:28 PM ET

May 30, 2011

Who cares in the Middle East what Obama says?

This month, in the Middle East, has seen the unmaking of the President of the United States. More than that, it has witnessed the lowest prestige of America in the region since Roosevelt met King Abdul Aziz on the USS Quincy in the Great Bitter Lake in 1945.

While Barack Obama and Benjamin Netanyahu played out their farce in Washington – Obama grovelling as usual – the Arabs got on with the serious business of changing their world, demonstrating and fighting and dying for freedoms they have never possessed. Obama waffled on about change in the Middle East – and about America's new role in the region. It was pathetic. "What is this 'role' thing?" an Egyptian friend asked me at the weekend. "Do they still believe we care about what they think?"

And it is true. Obama's failure to support the Arab revolutions until they were all but over lost the US most of its surviving credit in the region. Obama was silent on the overthrow of Ben Ali, only joined in the chorus of contempt for Mubarak two days before his flight, condemned the Syrian regime – which has killed more of its people than any other dynasty in this Arab "spring", save for the frightful Gaddafi – but makes it clear that he would be happy to see Assad survive, waves his puny fist at puny Bahrain's cruelty and remains absolutely, stunningly silent over Saudi Arabia. And he goes on his knees before Israel. Is it any wonder, then, that Arabs are turning their backs on America, not out of fury or anger, nor with threats or violence, but with contempt? It is the Arabs and their fellow Muslims of the Middle East who are themselves now making the decisions.

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Turkey is furious with Assad because he twice promised to speak of reform and democratic elections – and then failed to honour his word. The Turkish government has twice flown delegations to Damascus and, according to the Turks, Assad lied to the foreign minister on the second visit, baldly insisting that he would recall his brother Maher's legions from the streets of Syrian cities. He failed to do so. The torturers continue their work.

Watching the hundreds of refugees pouring from Syria across the northern border of Lebanon, the Turkish government is now so fearful of a repeat of the great mass Iraqi Kurdish refugee tide that overwhelmed their border in the aftermath of the 1991 Gulf war that it has drawn up its own secret plans to prevent the Kurds of Syria moving in their thousands into the Kurdish areas of south-eastern Turkey. Turkish generals have thus prepared an operation that would send several battalions of Turkish troops into Syria itself to carve out a "safe area" for Syrian refugees inside Assad's caliphate. The Turks are prepared to advance well beyond the Syrian border town of Al Qamishli – perhaps half way to Deir el-Zour (the old desert killing fields of the 1915 Armenian Holocaust, though speak it not) – to provide a "safe haven" for those fleeing the slaughter in Syria's cities.

The Qataris are meanwhile trying to prevent Algeria from resupplying Gaddafi with tanks and armoured vehicles – this was one of the reasons why the Emir of Qatar, the wisest bird in the Arabian Gulf, visited the Algerian president, Abdelaziz Bouteflika, last week. Qatar is committed to the Libyan rebels in Benghazi; its planes are flying over Libya from Crete and – undisclosed until now – it has Qatari officers advising the rebels inside the city of Misrata in western Libya; but if Algerian armour is indeed being handed over to Gaddafi to replace the material that has been destroyed in air strikes, it would account for the ridiculously slow progress which the Nato campaign is making against Gaddafi.

Of course, it all depends on whether Bouteflika really controls his army – or whether the Algerian "pouvoir", which includes plenty of secretive and corrupt generals, are doing the deals. Algerian equipment is superior to Gaddafi's and thus for every tank he loses, Ghaddafi might be getting an improved model to replace it. Below Tunisia, Algeria and Libya share a 750-mile desert frontier, an easy access route for weapons to pass across the border.

But the Qataris are also attracting Assad's venom. Al Jazeera's concentration on the Syrian uprising – its graphic images of the dead and wounded far more devastating than anything our soft western television news shows would dare broadcast – has Syrian state television nightly spitting at the Emir and at the state of Qatar. The Syrian government has now suspended up to £4 billion of Qatari investment projects, including one belonging to the Qatar Electricity and Water Company.

Amid all these vast and epic events – Yemen itself may yet prove to be the biggest bloodbath of all, while the number of Syria's "martyrs" have now exceeded the victims of Mubarak's death squads five months ago – is it any surprise that the frolics of Messrs Netanyahu and Obama appear so irrelevant? Indeed, Obama's policy towards the Middle East – whatever it is – sometimes appears so muddled that it is scarcely worthy of study. He supports, of course, democracy – then admits that this may conflict with America's interests. In that wonderful democracy called Saudi Arabia, the US is now pushing ahead with a £40 billion arms deal and helping the Saudis to develop a new "elite" force to protect the kingdom's oil and future nuclear sites. Hence Obama's fear of upsetting Saudi Arabia, two of whose three leading brothers are now so incapacitated that they can no longer make sane decisions – unfortunately, one of these two happens to be King Abdullah – and his willingness to allow the Assad family's atrocity-prone regime to survive. Of course, the Israelis would far prefer the "stability" of the Syrian dictatorship to continue; better the dark caliphate you know than the hateful Islamists who might emerge from the ruins. But is this argument really good enough for Obama to support when the people of Syria are dying in the streets for the kind of democracy that the US president says he wants to see in the region?

One of the vainest elements of American foreign policy towards the Middle East is the foundational idea that the Arabs are somehow more stupid than the rest of us, certainly than the Israelis, more out of touch with reality than the West, that they don't understand their own history. Thus they have to be preached at, lectured, and cajoled by La Clinton and her ilk – much as their dictators did and do, father figures guiding their children through life. But Arabs are far more literate than they were a generation ago; millions speak perfect English and can understand all too well the political weakness and irrelevance in the president's words. Listening to Obama's 45-minute speech this month – the "kick off' to four whole days of weasel words and puffery by the man who tried to reach out to the Muslim world in Cairo two years ago, and then did nothing – one might have thought that the American President had initiated the Arab revolts, rather than sat on the sidelines in fear.

There was an interesting linguistic collapse in the president's language over those critical four days. On Thursday 19 May, he referred to the continuation of Israeli "settlements". A day later, Netanyahu was lecturing him on "certain demographic changes that have taken place on the ground". Then when Obama addressed the American Aipac lobby group (American Israel Public Affairs Committee) on the Sunday, he had cravenly adopted Netanyahu's own preposterous expression. Now he, too, spoke of "new demographic realities on the ground." Who would believe that he was talking about internationally illegal Jewish colonies built on land stolen from Arabs in one of the biggest property heists in the history of "Palestine"? Delay in peace-making will undermine Israeli security, Obama announced – apparently unaware that Netanyahu's project is to go on delaying and delaying and delaying until there is no land left for the "viable" Palestinian state which the United States and the European Union supposedly wish to see.

Then we had the endless waffle about the 1967 borders. Netanyahu called them "defenceless" (though they seemed to have been pretty defendable for the 18 years prior to the Six Day War) and Obama – oblivious to the fact that Israel must be the only country in the world to have an eastern land frontier but doesn't know where it is – then says he was misunderstood when he talked about 1967. It doesn't matter what he says. George W Bush caved in years ago when he gave Ariel Sharon a letter which stated America's acceptance of "already existing major Israeli population centres" beyond the 1967 lines. To those Arabs prepared to listen to Obama's spineless oration, this was a grovel too far. They simply could not understand the reaction of Netanyahu's address to Congress. How could American politicians rise and applaud Netanyahu 55 times – 55 times – with more enthusiasm than one of the rubber parliaments of Assad, Saleh and the rest?

And what on earth did the Great Speechifier mean when he said that "every country has the right to self-defence" but that Palestine would be "demilitarised"? What he meant was that Israel could go on attacking the Palestinians (as in 2009, for example, when Obama was treacherously silent) while the Palestinians would have to take what was coming to them if they did not behave according to the rules – because they would have no weapons to defend themselves. As for Netanyahu, the Palestinians must choose between unity with Hamas or peace with Israel. All of which was very odd. When there was no unity, Netanyahu told us all that he had no Palestinian interlocutor because the Palestinians were disunited. Yet when they unite, they are disqualified from peace talks.

Of course, cynicism grows the longer you live in the Middle East. I recall, for example, travelling to Gaza in the early 1980s when Yasser Arafat was running his PLO statelet in Beirut. Anxious to destroy Arafat's prestige in the occupied territories, the Israeli government decided to give its support to an Islamist group in Gaza called Hamas. In fact, I actually saw with my own eyes the head of the Israeli army's Southern Command negotiating with bearded Hamas officials, giving them permission to build more mosques. It's only fair to say, of course, that we were also busy at the time, encouraging a certain Osama bin Laden to fight the Soviet army in Afghanistan. But the Israelis did not give up on Hamas. They later held another meeting with the organisation in the West Bank; the story was on the front page of the Jerusalem Post the next day. But there wasn't a whimper from the Americans.

Then another moment that I can recall over the long years. Hamas and Islamic Jihad members – all Palestinians – were, in the early 1990s, thrown across the Israeli border into southern Lebanon where they spent more than a year camping on a freezing mountainside. I would visit them from time to time and on one occasion mentioned that I would be travelling to Israel next day. Immediately, one of the Hamas men ran to his tent and returned with a notebook. He then proceeded to give me the home telephone numbers of three senior Israeli politicians – two of whom are still prominent today – and, when I reached Jerusalem and called the numbers, they all turned out to be correct. In other words, the Israeli government had been in personal and direct contact with Hamas.

But now the narrative has been twisted out of all recognition. Hamas are the super-terrorists, the "al-Qa'ida" representatives in the unified Palestinian leadership, the men of evil who will ensure that no peace ever takes place between Palestinians and Israeli. If only this were true, the real al-Qa'ida would be more than happy to take responsibility. But it is not true. In the same context, Obama stated that the Palestinians would have to answer questions about Hamas. But why should they? What Obama and Netanyahu think about Hamas is now irrelevant to them. Obama warns the Palestinians not to ask for statehood at the United Nations in September. But why on earth not? If the people of Egypt and Tunisia and Yemen and Libya and Syria – we are all waiting for the next revolution (Jordan? Bahrain again? Morocco?) – can fight for freedom and dignity, why shouldn't the Palestinians? Lectured for decades on the need for non-violent protest, the Palestinians elect to go to the UN with their cry for legitimacy – only to be slapped down by Obama.

Having read all of the "Palestine Papers" which Al-Jazeera revealed, there is no doubt that "Palestine's" official negotiators will go to any lengths to produce some kind of statelet. Mahmoud Abbas, who managed to write a 600-page book on the "peace process" without once mentioning the word "occupation", could even cave in over the UN project, fearful of Obama's warning that it would be an attempt to "isolate" Israel and thus de-legitimise the Israeli state – or "the Jewish state" as the US president now calls it. But Netanyahu is doing more than anyone to delegitimise his own state; indeed, he is looking more and more like the Arab buffoons who have hitherto littered the Middle East. Mubarak saw a "foreign hand" in the Egyptian revolution (Iran, of course). So did the Crown Prince of Bahrain (Iran again). So did Gaddafi (al-Qa'ida, western imperialism, you name it), So did Saleh of Yemen (al-Qa'ida, Mossad and America). So did Assad of Syria (Islamism, probably Mossad, etc). And so does Netanyahu (Iran, naturally enough, Syria, Lebanon, just about anyone you can think of except for Israel itself).

But as this nonsense continues, so the tectonic plates shudder. I doubt very much if the Palestinians will remain silent. If there's an "intifada" in Syria, why not a Third Intifada in "Palestine"? Not a struggle of suicide bombers but of mass, million-strong protests. If the Israelis have to shoot down a mere few hundred demonstrators who tried – and in some cases succeeded – in crossing the Israeli border almost two weeks ago, what will they do if confronted by thousands or a million. Obama says no Palestinian state must be declared at the UN. But why not? Who cares in the Middle East what Obama says? Not even, it seems, the Israelis. The Arab spring will soon become a hot summer and there will be an Arab autumn, too. By then, the Middle East may have changed forever. What America says will matter nothing.
source : indepedent

 

GAHGEER

1:49 PM ET

May 30, 2011

The problem Mr Miller

is that you continue to act as a reference on an issue that you caused its failure.

All this ,moaning about Obama and his failures can not hide your contempt for Obama s even-handedness with the Palestinians, something which is not accepted to the lawyers of Israel in the USA.

The dice has been cast Mr Miller, and you can do nothing about it.

I am looking forward to reading your next piece of Mideast peace moaning after the UN vote this Sptember.

 

SAUNDED

9:23 PM ET

May 30, 2011

Why did Obama try anyway?

Neither party here has much incentive to negotiate, and even if they did, neither party has the ability to deliver on promises made.

For example, if some how a peace treaty were negotiated, there are no concessions that violent, well-armed, and unbending minorities on either side would accept.

The leaders that tried would be thrown from office, or murdered.

Obama's a smart guy, so why bother? Because he's trying to win influence for the U.S. in the new regimes arising from the Arab Spring.

There's huge opportunities and risks with Arab Spring that requires a subtle policy. Sad that the Republican House is more interested winning points domestically by undermining Obama's policy.

 

JACK DAVIS

11:02 PM ET

May 30, 2011

Minimum Requirements for Peace in the Middle East

Here are the minimum requirements for peace in the Middle East.

Full and unconditional diplomatic recognition of Israel

Full and unconditional recognition of Israel’s right to exist within secure borders

Full cessation of all acts of war against Israel, including but not limited to: full cessation of all economic boycotts and embargoes against Israel; full cessation of military action against Israel by independent states (Syria, Iran) AND their proxies: Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, Hamas, Al-Aqsa Martyr’s Brigade, ET. AL. (that is, EVERY single proxy)

Fact: The Israelis pulled out of Lebanon and got Hezbollah and its rockets for their trouble. Fact: The Israelis pulled out of Gaza and got Hamas and its rockets for their trouble.

It’s long past time for Mahmoud Abbas to “man up” and say, “Together, we shall beat our swords into plowshares, and neither of us will make war on the other anymore.”

Until that happens, the Israelis and the rest of the world should say to the Palestinians: “No deals.”

How about it? Are you ready to lean on the “poor Palestinians” for a change? Isn’t it time for the Palestinians to show what they’re made of? Yes, it is.

 

JOHNBOY4546

3:03 AM ET

May 31, 2011

How about this for a plan....

.....ask the EU to put forward a proposal for a comprehensive agreement and then... agree with it.

Tell the Israelis and the Palestinians in no uncertain - and very, very public - terms that the first one of them who objects to that plan will get shafted, and then invite them both to step forward if they think he's bluffing.....

After all, playing nice isn't going to get Obama anywhere, and if that's the case (and it is) then he may as well collect a few scaps along the way.

Which won't help bring peace, but they'll sure look good displayed up on the wall of the Oval Office.....

The French have a very nice phrase for it, I believe: "pour encourager les autres"

 

XZMA65@GMAIL.COM

6:18 AM ET

May 31, 2011

A country based on aparthide and hate is not worth defending

Israel as a model has failed before and will fail again. Israel refuses a two state solution so there is only one solution left; One state solution. Give every Palestinian citizenship and full rights and establish a truly democratic state where people are not discriminated against due to race, religion or gender. Not Bibi's version of democratic state, a real one.

The longer Israel refuses to recognize the need for people to live with dignity and freedom the more likely it will be that there will be one truly democratic state governing all those who live in that land and gives everyone 100% equal rights. The difference is that the leadership of that new state will not be Jewish.

At this point, just like it was with the freeing of the slaves in the US, Israelis must stand up and demand dignity for the oppressed. They must decide whether they want to be part of a world that is looking forward or one that is living in the stone ages.

Even if more than 500 clowns in the US congress who care less about what happens to Israelis stood up and clapped for Natanyahu. the fact is, there is no Israeli who does not know the result of actions of their government to the Palestinians. Israelis must decide to become world citizens if they want a place in history. Otherwise, they will be swept away in the next stand storm and forgotten like a bad dream.

 

JOHNBOY4546

10:16 PM ET

June 1, 2011

"the Jews who lived in Jordanian territory before 1948."

Hmmmm, let's see..... "Jordanian territory before 1948"...... would mean Transjordan i.e. the land EAST of the Jordan River.

Demonstrably so, since the Arab Legion (i.e. the Jordanian Army) didn't cross the River Jordan until May 16 1948.

Now, I admit that it's very hard to get an accurate figure for the Jewish population of Transjordan prior to the War of Independence, but it was most likely either two men and their dog.... or two dogs and one man.

But I'll be charitable (tho I'm not sure why) and assume you mean really "CisJordan" i.e. the territory WEST of the Jordan River, and that you are really asking about are all the Jews who were living in territory, and who then had to flee when that territory was seized and annexed by Jordan after May 1948.

You mean that territory, Marine?

I think you'll find that under the Partition Plan the total Jewish population who would have remained behind inside the "arab state" was estimated to be somewhere about 10,000, give or take.

Which does rather pale into insignificance compared to the 750,000 Arabs who were expelled by the Haganah (i.e. the military forces of the Jewish state) before, during, and after May 1948.

So I'd have to say that your question is So Very Hasbarah i.e. you attempt to draw a moral equivalence when the facts on the ground tell a very, very, very different story......

 

JOHNBOY4546

10:19 PM ET

June 1, 2011

"the Jews who lived in Jordanian territory before 1948."

Hmmmm, let's see..... "Jordanian territory before 1948"...... would mean Transjordan i.e. the land EAST of the Jordan River.

Demonstrably so, since the Arab Legion (i.e. the Jordanian Army) didn't cross the River Jordan until May 16 1948.

Now, I admit that it's very hard to get an accurate figure for the Jewish population of Transjordan prior to the War of Independence, but it was most likely either two men and their dog.... or two dogs and one man.

But I'll be charitable (tho I'm not sure why) and assume you mean really "CisJordan" i.e. the territory WEST of the Jordan River, and that you are really asking about are all the Jews who were living in territory, and who then had to flee when that territory was seized and annexed by Jordan after May 1948.

You mean that territory, Marine?

I think you'll find that under the Partition Plan the total Jewish population who would have remained behind inside the "arab state" was estimated to be somewhere about 10,000, give or take.

Which does rather pale into insignificance compared to the 750,000 Arabs who were expelled by the Haganah (i.e. the military forces of the Jewish state) before, during, and after May 1948.

So I'd have to say that your question is So Very Hasbarah i.e. you attempt to draw a moral equivalence when the facts on the ground tell a very, very, very different story......

 

JOHNBOY4546

10:43 PM ET

June 1, 2011

Just to stress these points....

because you don't appear to be very good at joining dots.

"So, today's palestinian "refugees" (lolz - there is no such thing as a 3rd generation refugee by definition) could always even out the exchange and go to Jordanian territory."

And that "exchange rate" is either:
a) 10,000 to 750,000 (counting the West Bank with Jordan, tho I'm not sure why)
b) 2 to 750,000 (counting only Jordan)

So your "even swap" is done at a ratio of
75/1 (being veeerrrrry charitable), or
375,000/1 (if we take you at your word that you are comparing "Israel" with "Jordan")

That seems "fair" to you, does it?

"And, since by LAW Jews cannot be citizens of Jordan, I think it equal that the same be applied to Arabs in Israel."

Except.......
There were never any Jews in Jordan.
Not pre-1921
Not pre-1948
Not pre-1967
Not now.
Not ever.

Therefore Jordanian law is designed to prevent Jews from coming TO Jordan, precisely because there have never been any Jews to expel FROM Jordan.

Except......
In the case of Israel the situation is reversed i.e. it is the Arabs who were there, and it was the Jews who came in from outside and imposed a zionist regime upon them.

Therefore your proposed Israeli Law is a proposal to disenfranchise (and eject, but we don;t talk about *that*!) an indigenous population, and that is a very different proposition from a law that seeks to prevent Unwanted Trailer-Trash from muscling in on Hashemite territory.

You compare an Apple with an Orange, and you declare that
a) they taste the same, and
b) they taste delicious.

You are wrong on all counts but, then again, you always are.

 

JOHNBOY4546

3:29 AM ET

June 2, 2011

You DO so love to run that ruler over other people....

"If the country is 75% Palestinian, the leaders, army, etc. are Palestinian...then it is Palestine. It is the independent Palestinian home that they claim they want."

No, it is AN "independent Palestinian state" that they want, not THE "independent Palestinian home". Apparently they aren't anywhere near as obsessed as zionists are about creating an ethnocracy.

Sure, they can decide as an act of self-determination that they will join into a federation with Jordan, in which case **all** the Arabs east and west of the Jordan River can decide if they want to be known as "Jordanians" or "Palestinians", and wether that territory both east and west of the Jordan River is to be named "Jordan" or "Palestine".

Sure, they can decide as an act of self-determination that they will join into a federation with Israel, in which case **everyone** west of the Jordan River can decide if they want to be known as "Israelis" or "Palestinians", and wether all that territory between the Med and the Jordan River is to be called "Israel" or "Palestine".

Either is logical, though neither is very likely.

But what you want to do is to decide FOR them, and it is as ludicrously illogical as it is so transparently driven by self-interested greed:
1) Israel gets to claim all the territory, but has no responsibility for the Arabs who live there, while
2) Jordan is to be lumbered with the responsibility for all the Arabs who live there, but not the territory on which those Arabs live.

Pardon me for suggesting that the Palestinians themselves have a much more logical idea i.e.
a) they are a stateless people who are
b) living on a territory belonging to no state, therefore they'll
c) claim their state then and there, thanks all the same.

"Because the Jews have citizenship in the countries they live in. The Palestinians don't."

Just listen to yourself.

a) Palestinians have no citizenship where they live
b) Israel is the country that is going to claim where they live

Dare I suggest that you square that circle by doing unto them as everyone else does unto the Jews i.e. you give those Palestinians citizenship of Israel, just as Jews living in the USA, Russia, etc are given citizenship of those countries.

Because that's the funny ol' thing about annexing territory i.e. if you annex the territory then the PEOPLE - literally as well as figuratively - "come with the territory".

 

JOHNBOY4546

9:26 PM ET

June 4, 2011

A pointless point

"The 750,000 Arabs allegedly expelled by the Hagana pales in comparison to the 856,000 Jews who were expelled from the Arab and Muslim countries after 1948, and who had lived in dhimmitude in much of the Muslim world for centuries"

And even that pales in comparison to the six million Jews who were killed in the Holocaust.

But, remind me, what does the holocaust have to do with the Palestinians?

Now, correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't seem to recall the Palestinians sending an expeditionary force into Tripoli with orders to "expel the Jews!", nor do I recall the Palestinians descending en-masse on Baghdad to do likewise to the Jews of Iraq.

Six million Jews were killed by Germany, and their descendents have a right to pursue restitution. But they need to present that bill to Germany. Not to the Palestinians.

856,000 Jews fled from Libya, Egypt, Syria, etc., and their descendents have a right to pursue their claim for restitution. But they need to press that claim with.... Libya, Egypt, Syria, etc... not the Palestinians.

 

FIFTH HORSEMAN

7:19 AM ET

May 31, 2011

Everyone on earth but the

Everyone on earth but the Obama administration knows AIPAC et al are in charge of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East and until Obama figures that out he's going to continue to make a fool of himself.

Under the circumstances the only face-saving role for a U.S. president is to do what he's told as quietly as possible so the fact that he's a puppet is kept on the down low as much as possible.

 

KENNETH

8:43 AM ET

May 31, 2011

The real core issue

The article is a fairly good summary of Obama's serial failures, but Miller mistates the core issues:- "borders, Jerusalem, security, and refugees".

From the beginning of the conflict to now, there has only been one core issue: the existance of Israel. If the Palestinians accept that, negotiations on the other issues are possible. If they refuse to recognize Israel's right to exist, nothing else can be resolved.

Nothing.

Obama's call for a return to 1967 borders with agreed swaps won't solve the problem, because Hamas has publicly stated that will only be the first step to the complete liberation of all of "Palestine", from the river to the sea. Fatah occassionaly implies, in English or French, that they will settle for the 1967 borders, but they turn around and say in Arabic "from the river to the sea".

In 1948, the Palestininas were offered more more land than Gaza & the West Bank, and an open, shared Jerusalem. They refused it.

In 1967, they had the 1967 borders. Yet aagain the Arab armies attacked Israel. If it wasn't good enough then, why should anyone believe it would be enough today?

The history of the conflict makes clear, the core issue is not about the size of Israel or where the borders are. It's about the very existance of Israel.

 

KENNETH

9:21 AM ET

May 31, 2011

Error in the quotation

The nice Chandler quotation that statrts the article has an error. The correct quote is:

"Her whole body shivered and her face fell apart like a bride’s pie crust."

The Big Sleep, p.30

 

AN OUTSIDER

12:05 PM ET

May 31, 2011

Another insightful analysis from FP...

I am mucho-gracias impressed with FP - makes me regret all the more having been out of touch with it for so long. Certainly, I'll be cancelling my NYTimes subscription (I'm so sick of their manipulation in the comments, as well as their general 'safeness' and status-quo protection) and switching to FP ASAP. Vive la vérité!

Anyhow, one thing I might mention with respect to Mr. Miller's analysis: things are moving so fast, week by week, that I can't help but wonder just how different things will be by September. Does it even make sense to think that the US will still be in a position to offer it's veto or that Likud's public perception won't have significantly deteriorated by then? AIPAC can't stand in the way of popular will, and the old media is losing control of opinion here like elsewhere. I can well imagine major American protests at the UN building in NYC come September...

Obama can try to play it safe, but in the end he will come across as having played it. He can speak the hard truth, and be the first president to successfully break from the old establishment - after all, with the Arab Spring underway and everything else going on, I doubt that assassinating a runaway president would achieve anything for the establishment pukes, as it would almost guarantee revolt.

It's not like he needs any more money to get re-elected, so what leverage could a special interest hold on him? As far as debts to his past investors: things are tough in the world of paid influence, and the main idea is to have a president who represents the people, anyway. There is no doubt that the US needs to stop the 3 Billion $ in direct transfers to Israel and all that jazz - let's not forget that part of the equation, so a general re-alignment should be an option as well, IMO. All this stuff is inevitable: he can be last or first to call for it, and history will remember the order in which it all comes to pass.

Oh, and impressive comment from MUSE above - well worth reading, from beginning to end. And to the CHRISBEREL/NO2ISLAM/... pukes: you guys are a stumbling joke. And as always, you don't manage to convince anyone with your patent lies, you only shame yourselves more.

That being said, I ended up on this page because I noticed there were a lot of comments, so maybe I should be thanking them? They are suckers as always.

 

AN OUTSIDER

1:56 PM ET

May 31, 2011

Read my post

If you pay attention to what I actually wrote, you'll notice I was talking about polls/opinion come September, and about AIPAC not being able to stand in the way of bad public opinion at that hypothetical time.

So yeah, thanks for agreeing with me: the polls are still with AIPAC today. Time will tell where they are come September - sad thing for you is that time isn't on your side, chumps. Not one bit.

 

AN OUTSIDER

3:22 AM ET

June 1, 2011

You laughin' now, Troll?

What a joke. You seem far dumber than even that pathetic Mercurial Troll from the other day, so I'm not sure if you will understand this, but here's a copy-paste from a recent post of mine:

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/05/24/blinded_by_the_right
------------
I'll bring up a little lesson learned from George Orwell's "1984": the system depends on external enemies.

Syria and all the other despots of the region cannot survive without an evil Israel: they need a powerful external target for the hatred that their own injustice creates in their subjects, otherwise it turns inwards. Similarly, Israel cannot act as it wishes without its evil enemies: anytime criticism is leveled at Israel for its actions, attention is redirected towards the despots or Hamas: 'look at what THEY do!' cries Israel. Similarly, in the US, the dumb red-necks are made to hate 'Liberals' rather than the credit card companies and others that prey on them, and the population as a whole is made to hate Muslims/Arabs (even though many are citizens - and why shouldn't they be!!!), all so that the douche bags can channel anger towards safe 'external' targets and keep their status quo.

I don't bring this up to convince you, Merc, but to explain something: the internet has broken all controls on opinion and information, and all the despots are falling as a result. Soon you won't have any Assads/Hamas or Gaddafis as neighbors, so what will you do then? You are screwed. You live a lie and forces larger than us all are wrecking your whole game plan - in fact, we are playing on a new board now and your old tricks and cheats all FAIL. Your problem? You are too dumb to notice or to think of anything new. Like a broken record, you keep playing it by your tired ol' playbook.
------------

As usual, I speak truth, and if you question it, I'll elaborate with more truth and easily skewer you. Your position is a sham, and the best you seem able to do is argue against yourself.

Case in point: if any despots do manage to hang on thanks to oil (eg: maybe the Saudis, although I doubt it), then once that oil runs out, it will be one less support point for Israel, should Israel itself still by then exist as the Apartheid monstrosity that it is today.

And before you take off on another one of your racist rants, thinking that the despots will be replaced with Iran-style theocracies, consider how people in Egypt are not going that way (they can't, since they are multicultural like the US), or how Iran itself had to fake the last election results to remain as it is (I don't think that one's gonna fly too many more times...). Consider how the Assads and Gaddafis, who all sponsor extremism (Hamas, etc.), are falling one after the other: I really don't think that they are going to be replaced with worse (unless you can 'help' it) - in fact, I think the future looks very bright and I look forward to it. Sadly, it's not a good future for Apartheid societies, so unless you wake the f- up, you are not going to be enjoying much of it yourselves.

'Haha', was it?

 

MARTY24

12:36 PM ET

May 31, 2011

Two distinct issues

There are really two issues addressed in Miller's article, Obama's approach to (foreign) policy and how to get the "Peace" negotiations back on track.

The simple fact is that Obama got himself elected by working very hard to ensure that the voters knew as little about him as possible. That was, at least in part, due to his not having views on many critical issues, something an alert observer would have discerned from the many times he voted "present" on important bills when he was a senator. He has now been president for more than two years, do the people know what Obama stands for even now? If we get to 2012, and you still cannot say with any certainty what he stands for, please vote for someone else; freed of the need to seek reelection, he might be capable of almost anything.

As Miller noted, Obama has made a mess of the Middle East negotiations. But Obama is so arrogannt that he doesn't learn from his failures. Rather, he doubles down, basically daring the victims of his earlier errors to defy him to protect themselves from his incompetence. That has become the central aspect of his relationship with Netanyahu. Most members of Congress are aware of this and know that his approach has been a dismal failure, which is why Netanyahu got such a warm reception in Congress.

That brings us to the second aspect of the article, why the "peace" talks have failed.

The issues in the talks fall into at least three levels of centrality.

At the top level is whether there will be a Jewish state of Israel, which the Palestinians and their legion of supporters on these blogs continue to answer in the negative. Some claim that Israel is seeking to prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state, but Netanyahu has endorsed the two-state solution, (the Likud platform opposing one that is often cited comes from the 1980s) provided it doesn't become a base for continuing the war to exterminate Israel. Supporters of the Palestinians see this condition as unreasonable.

Every set of talks to date has foundered over an Israeli demand that whatever terms are agreed upon will be final and that the issues not be subject to being reopened. No Palestinian or Arab leader has ever been willing to agree to this, a concept central to the very nature of what negotiations are about. The Arab unwillingness to make a firm commitment to living by whatever terms they agree to establishes beyond any question that they have NEVER been serious about resolving the problem by negotiation. If the terms won't hold up, why should Israel give up real assets for a worthless piece of paper? And the current effort in Egypt to renounce the Camp David Accord simply serves to demonstrate the centrality of this issue.

Abbas' plan to get the UN to establish a Palestinian state is simply a way to get what he wants without having to negotiate. If this has been his strategy all along, then he was NEVER serious about the negotiations and was simply using them to give him time to get this other strategy to work.

Hamas makes no bones about its opposition to the existence of Israel and is openly committed to genocide against the Jews. This one fact should be enough for honest people to reject the many calls in this blog for a "one-state" solution as a vehicle for achieving justice: It will do no such thing and isn't intended to, even by the people who write claiming this is the case. Abbas and Fatah have learned to speak out of both sides of their mouths, telling the West what it wants to hear, and telling their people what they want to hear. We know from the Palestinian leaks that they understand why they should agree to various Israeli demands, even as they assure their people that they will never do so.

The secondary issues include borders, refugees, and Jerusalem. These are the issues the Palestinians want to talk about because in the absence of awareness of their position on the primary issue, they can sound reasonable discussing these.

Settlements are actually a tertiary issue; what happens with them will reflect agreements made on primary and secondary issues. That Obama chose to put a tertiary issue at the top of his agenda indicates how totally clueless he was about the situation. Moving up a notch to the issue of boundaries, while still avoiding the primary issue, doesn't do much to inspire confidence.

Anyone who seeks to see the Middle East conflict resolved has to start with the primary issue and demand an unambiguous statement from the Arab states and Palestinians that they accept that Jews have rights by acknowledging that the State of Israel exists as a manifestation of the rights of Jews. Only then can they demand that a Palestinian state be established to vindicate similar rights for Palestinians. But we all know that such a demand will be met with violent indignation in the Arab street as well as by the many posters here who claim that they are simply writing the "truth."

 

PUPIL

2:30 PM ET

May 31, 2011

Logical nonsense

Miller: Arab public opinion will now be more influential and could become more radicalized. So, let's hurry up and make a deal.

Very strange statement for a diplomat. "More radicalized" Arabs would be obviously less influential in any "peace making". Besides, they are already radicalized up to their ears.

Miller is correct to blame Obama for foolishly blocking the Israeli-Palestinian contacts; after all Obama is not the brightest strategic mind among us. However, Miller's urge to hurry up is totally misplaced.

First, he needs to explain why Palestinians should be rushing to cut the deal when they are gaining lots of things by refusing to talk: looming UN vote, growing Egypt's and European's support vs. Israel's isolation, and so on. I see no reason for them to hurry.

Second, if Obama could completely screw up a relatively simple task to make another bombastic Arab (Winter, Spring) speech while, nevertheless, keep the Israeli-Palestinian talks simmering, who can guarantee that this unsurpassed genius would not ruin any negotiations?

Third, Miller should not be sending himself an invitation to chair or goad any future talks. His time - together with Baker or Clinton style ME diplomacy - is over. Whatever the future is - war or talks, it will be entire new ball game. Feeble minded, but still President, Obama will not include Miller in his team.

I bet a good bottle of wine on that.

 

NICHOLAS WIBBERLEY

6:48 PM ET

May 31, 2011

Endearing?

“The idea that to try and fail is somehow better than not trying at all is quintessentially American. It’s one of our most endearing qualities”

On the contrary, it is one of the least endearing. Patience is the missing US virtue. Not doing anything isn’t ‘not doing anything’, it is waiting, like you wait while the kettle boils or the fruit ripens. It is perfectly clear that there needs a serious adjustment in the US/Israel relationship. The events of the last two years and particularly the last 12 months suggest that this is happening and Israel is getting ready to leave home. Sure, their first few pie crusts will crumble but the US can keep an eye on them, see they come to no real harm.

It is one of the stumbling blocks of the problem that while Palestinians simply want to get back to their land and on with their lives, they are asked to accommodate mythopeic enthusiasms that make no sense, and Obama is doubtless as fed up with these as the rest of us. He did his best, which is honourable, but there is no point in flogging a dead donkey. Obviously the US will defend Israel’s security but so will the UN, NATO and the rest of the world – no big deal. Whether ‘Israel’s security’ should or would include land belonging to the Palestinians is an issue under consideration. The Russians have hosted an effort to bring Hamas and Fatah closer, the Egyptians have opened the Rafah crossing; things are happening and the motives are not to harm Israel but to inject some common-sense and common humanity into an ugly situation with which the world is fast losing patience.

The idea that peoples of different culture, colour, religion and so on come together is a fundamental US social ideal, and if one were to attempt to synthesise US public opinion on this matter it would likely show little knowledge of the issues and no particular interest in them, rather a growing sense of bafflement that the two sides cannot simply share the place, and Obama has a feel for the public pulse.

 

BGARD6977

7:57 PM ET

May 31, 2011

Aid

Let me add an option I didn't see in the list: Cut off all foreign aid to Israel until they stop undermining US interests globally.

 

KUNINO

8:13 PM ET

May 31, 2011

A point clearly made

Aaron David Miller's point, clearly made: "The president hasn't achieved things exactly as ADM wants him to, and in exactly the way ADM requires. Since he pollutes the stream of Raymond Chandler quotations, it seems best to turn to The Big Chill's hilarious scene of a group of TV watchers eyeing titles of a private cop drama in which a lead actor throws himself on the stone floor of a church aisle, pistol resting almost within the lens hood. A viewer proffers "I want a margarita, and I want it now."

Quite a lot of Obama punditry takes this form, and most of those proclaiming his failures turn out pretty soon thereafter to have had little idea of what the president intended and how he was working to achieve it. ADM has joined in, a week or so late, with the cluster of pundits saying the president's new points about Middle East peace are wrong or pointless. At least, unlike many other pundits, he had the decency to wait until the speech was made. That doesn't make him right or suggest he knows much of what the government's up to in this. We'll see. Possibly at some time Mr Assange will help out.

 

BRENDA1183

8:18 PM ET

May 31, 2011

I don't see what other option there is but to fold -

"There's great temptation in all of this to saddle the Obama administration with the lion's share of responsibility for this unhappy state of affairs."

-- not at all. what are we, a bunch of self-hating liberals?

I put the responsibility squarely on Netanyahu. Obama gave huge concessions and huge, huge security assurances in his speech preceding the Israeli prime minister's visit, and the Israeli prime minister shat all over him for that -- publically, Then Congress gave a huge welcome to Netanyahu after he did that. Netanyahu was hugely aggressive and acted -- effectively -- to cut the President away from his own party and his own government.

There is no choice but for Obama to withdraw. Probably the US will not have to use the veto when the Palestinians go to the UN this September, they can work it through the General Assembly.

It's up to the Israelis now. There is a political opposition in Israel, it's up to them to remove Netanyahu from power. This is not all up to the US. We've taken it as far as we can.

 

AN OUTSIDER

2:36 AM ET

June 1, 2011

Good point

As Mr. Miller's own analysis made clear, the difference between the Palestinians and the Israelis is telling:
A- the Palestinians have nothing (either sub-citizen rights or no rights)
A- the Israelis have everything

B- the Palestinians want resolution, as it would net them 'something'
B- the Israelis don't want resolution, as they feel it would net them 'less than everything'

Beyond that, the Likud Israelis do not want resolution because it runs counter to their grand plan for Jerusalem and a greater Israel. Stopping now, when they are only 80% of the way there? Unthinkable!

So long as Likud is in power, so long as Israel is fundamentally aligned with a desire for gaming this terrible situation to reach a terrible destination (nothing in Apartheid is admirable or non-terrible), there is nothing that Obama or the UN can do to make them work towards peace.

If we want peace, if Obama wants to help drive this towards peace, he needs to work towards bipartisan support for us dropping the billions in aid: Israel doesn't need it, Israel uses that money in part for illegal settlements (and is able to continue settling because of our support in general) and otherwise doesn't it for its survival. The day that happens, Israel will be at the negotiating table looking for peace and resolution with the Palestinians for the first time.

 

JOHNBOY4546

8:35 PM ET

May 31, 2011

Miller refuses to see outside his box.

There is a vote coming up in September.
Netanyahu is toast if the USA declines to veto that resolution.
Abbas is toast if "more than the USA" vetos that resolution.

So do this....
Dust off the USA's best proposals for a final agreement and hand it over to Sarko or Cameron with a note that reads "Here, yours to use as you see fit".

And when the EU unveals that "plan" then the USA shouts "Why, gosh, that's GENIUS!!!!!" and the Russians shout "Fantastic!", and the UN cries out "Brilliant!!".

Then all four of them should issue this communique:
1) The Quartet has adopted this plan as its official plan to end this conflict
2) If Israel won't agree to it then there will be **no** veto come September
3) If the Pals refuse then there will be **four** vetos come September

What can Bibi do?
After all, if he rejects that plan then he's toast come September.

What can Abbas do?
After all, if he rejects that plan then he's toast come September.

Worth thinking about......

 

NICHOLAS WIBBERLEY

5:40 AM ET

June 1, 2011

Johnboy

Better still, come the September UN vote the US abstains? Wow!

 

JOHNBOY4546

6:20 AM ET

June 1, 2011

The point is this NICHOLAS: Obama has to *leverage* that vote.

At the moment he is doing nothing of the sort i.e. Netanyahu blythly assumes that Obama will cast that veto, and Abbas is working on the assumption that the USA will be completely isolated on the Security Council.

Miller is making the same assumption, precisely because he is incapable of seeing any other way but the (failed) policies of the last 40 years.

But Obama is not a captive to "the old ways" - he has a choice. And he has a choice because there is an asset that has never been used, and is seldom even recognized i.e. the four other members of the Security Council who can veto.

Obama has to do a deal with **those** dudes, and then present that deal to Netanyahu and Abbas as a fait accompli.

He has to do this.......

Come up with a Plan, and declare that it is THE PLAN.

Tell Bibi that the USA has struck a deal with the other guys in the Security Council i.e. if Israel won't accept that plan then come September N.O.B.O.D.Y. will cast a veto to save Bibb's Flabby Arse.

Tell Abbas that the State Dept has stitched up a very special deal for him too i.e. if the PLO won't accept then come September USA, Britain, France, Russia and China will **all** veto his Sorry Arse from Here To Kingdom Come.

Then ask both of those Bozos who wants to be first to step up to the microphone.......

 

AN OUTSIDER

12:19 PM ET

June 1, 2011

How deep is the delusion of an AIPAC mind?

Guys like USMARINE2010 are a strange bunch. Beyond outright lies, the self-contradictions, the denial and constant rationalizing, there still remains the greater question: do these guys think they are helping their cause? If you are gonna Troll, ya gotta do it with a purpose, with some craft. USMARINE2010's spectacle makes one want to turn away, certainly, but it also serves as a poor caricature of the pro-Israeli...

Conversely, USMARINE2010 might be a pro-Palestinian counter-Troll acting like a repulsive pro-AIPAC Troll, all just to advance some other agenda. It is hard to tell, sometimes.

Regardless, I apologize for feeding this one - clearly he thrives on punishment.

USMARINE2010, I know your game: you don't even bother with attempting to follow a true path. It doesn't matter how good my counter arguments or original arguments, how miserably false and failed your own arguments: your game is just to ignore all that and come back with more VOLUME. In any case, your thread hijacking is also going to fail: re-read the article we are commenting on and learn to focus a bit.

 

SEADOG1946

8:14 AM ET

June 2, 2011

I recall a Stephen Walt article

where the article's response thread was cluttered with a 24x7 barrage of responses posted by what seems to have been relay team of professional Israeli explainers/hasbarists posing/logged-on as an Israeli marine (I didn't know they had them). Anyway, as I looked through that article, recently, it seems that an editor has purged/flushed all the "marine"s comments.

 

AN OUTSIDER

2:42 PM ET

June 2, 2011

Wow, seems like a lot of stuff got deleted, not just the Troll

Will the interesting stuff get un-deleted, or is this over?

 

AN OUTSIDER

2:45 PM ET

June 2, 2011

P.S.

I should be careful of what I say, as indeed who knows if you guys got hacked or what, but still, I would like to know what's going on with this.

 

AN OUTSIDER

4:41 PM ET

June 2, 2011

Last Words?

Although luckily I saved some of my previous posts (was I prescient?) and could re-post them, I certainly do not wish to break any editorial rules on FP by being too truthful and informative, as indeed that troll from before was certainly too false and 'disinformative' not to warrant getting purged. One often wonders at the 'freedom of speech' we supposedly have in the US. That one is surely one of our 'best' jokes.

Anyhow, I still like FP and offer it the benefit of doubt, even if I do rescind my previous offer of patronage (I know, you'll live, as indeed I wish you good fortune :>). I will put what I can of those deleted posts on my website (www.betterinfos.com), although I am missing the very last of my post(s) so maybe others with a copy can email me what I find missing (contact info at my website, if you are so inclined).

Beyond that, here is a post I was working on when the board reset happened:
---------
RE: Brenda: Israel's summer war
---
http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/opinion/obama-s-new-security-staff-may-approve-attack-on-iran-1.365251
I'm not so sure that Haaretz article has anything that supports the weight of it's inflammatory conclusion ("the danger that Netanyahu and Barak will aim at a surprise in Iran is especially great"). None of the appointments themselves are particularly pro-Israeli, and Petraeus is the guy who in the past made comments critical of our Israeli foreign policy, to some brouhaha. Becoming head of the CIA seems like a real promotion, after all, and it is even a position of significance in all this. All that looks quite good to me, with all of them seeming unlikely to do a WMD routine on Iran anytime soon :P

Thus, the article seems like more newspaper-type stuff - the kind that gets pageviews and interest from readership that is riveted by such talk. Regardless, I agree that reading Haaretz in general (I have seen far better pieces from them) is like a breath of fresh air compared to 99% of what you'll find in the US on Israel.

Anyhow, I do not expect Israel would ever take unilateral action against Iran without our express support: compromises would need to be made, no matter what, and jumping in without knowing what those compromises is too risky (you don't want to ask for help after jumping into the water, as the jumper no longer can say 'no' to the helper: AIPAC would risk having to call in all favors and then some). Indeed, I would say that none of the appointments by Obama are remotely AIPAC, as far as I can see, hence making such a war unlikely.

In general, I do not see major conflict escalations elsewhere being purposefully exacerbated to extreme heights, simply because every single country out there is destabilized by this: the old secrets are coming out. You can't hide the Special Pork in an indexed database having billions of interested parties interested in discovering said Special Pork... Our indices and tables may not be much good yet, but they are improving and are under our control, effectively. Those fat cats are hopeless: a good computer programmer can build his stack on any network (it doesn't even need to be wired), so even their best stratagems are quickly surmountable.

But back to the geopolitics: all the bad folk are spooked, none of them are prepared for this, and none of their old tricks are working, in particular because the fear is going or gone, and other such knock-off effects. The driving factor for all these people is self-centered, first and foremost, so precipitating themselves towards greater unpredictability and chaos does not make sense, especially at a time when they feel insecure (normally you attack only from a position of strength). Where in the past someone might have counted on an external war to help divert attention, now that media control is lost it would only add to the list of complaints...

From the Israeli perspective, there is too much to lose from taking big risks like these. I would expect mostly covert stuff, to little effect. Luckily, they are limited in what they can do, although their only significant advantage in this is that there are many other despots and manipulators who also wish for a continuance of the status quo, so they are not alone in making small actions. That being said, the internet-type developments are bulldozing past all these machinations, and indeed the internet is perfectly suited for highlighting (and keeping highlighted) each and every transgression. As such, the covert stuff is far more risky than ever before and once more is much more likely to cause harm than to help the manipulators.

--------

Anyhow, that's it. I guess I'll be back to putting my writing on my own website. Quite frankly, I dislike seeing my freedom of speech (maybe) impinged like this, but even more, I hate seeing my work and time wasted, as indeed I put some effort into the post(s) I lost - posts I created for my own personal enjoyment, if for no other reason. I am a truth-seeker like none I've met or read (other than a certain N., whom I love dearly), and as such I have accumulated quite a beneficial trove. I always offer things freely and (unsurprisingly) I get relatively little traction. Nobody ever comes for me until it's too late. I guess truth is like that for most human beings.

 

SEADOG1946

8:02 PM ET

June 2, 2011

The troll/fake Israeli "marine" will always

be eventually deleted/purged/flushed... FP can recognize the difference between individuals and professional/state-sponsored hasbara/propoganda purveyors.

Be patient, ignore the face slaps... it's a game to deflect you onto their court/game-rules.

 

BRENDA1183

6:39 AM ET

June 3, 2011

you are right, seadog...

...it is a maneuver to try to get you to play on their court, and they will try to frame the discussion in the same old tired way, their way. but it is a wearing game and I think I'll opt out. I hate getting my buttons pushed first thing in the morning.

someone did a great job of cleaning up this thread, I don't mind if anything of mine disappeared along with that bullying faux marine. the persona he (or she!) projected put me in mind of that little shop of horrors plant, the one that fed on blood.

Outsider, thanks for the feedback on the Ha'aretz piece, it settled me down considerably. I'll be visiting you on your website, maybe it will be quieter there and more opportunity for grown-up discussion without faux marines roaring through knocking away everyone's cocktail glasses.

 

KASEMAN

5:44 PM ET

June 3, 2011

Overseas of Obama-BiBi-Congress comedy

Almost 100% think the show was confirmation that Jews control America.

 

HENRYMORGAN

3:00 AM ET

June 6, 2011

If the U.S. was surrounded by

If the U.S. was surrounded by neighbors like those Israel has you bet we would think twice about making a deal. The Pals have never lived up to any agreement they have made. When Israelis moved out of Gaza they were attacked almost daily with thousands of rockets on a daily basis karmaloop promo codes 2011. When the Israelis pulled out of Lebanon same thing. Shooting rocket artillery at civilians is not acceptable. If our neighbors pulled that kind of thing on us what do youn think we would do? The Pals could have had peace 60 years ago or any time since.
Don't waste your Crocodile tears on these savages. Support the only democracy in the entire middle east

 

QUICK NICK

8:22 AM ET

June 29, 2011

It's not like he needs any

It's not like he needs any more money to get re-elected, so what leverage could a special interest hold on him? As far as debts to his past investors: things are tough in the world of paid influence, and the main idea is to have a president who sázkové kanceláre represents the people, anyway. There is no doubt that the US needs to stop the 3 Billion $ in direct transfers to Israel and all that jazz - let's not forget that part of the equation, so a general re-alignment should be an option as well, IMO. All this stuff is inevitable: he can be last or first to call for it, and history will remember the order in which it all comes to pass.I do not see major conflict escalations elsewhere being purposefully exacerbated to extreme heights, simply because every single country out there sázkové kanceláre is destabilized by this: the old secrets are coming out. You can't hide the Special Pork in an indexed database having billions of interested parties interested in discovering said Special Pork... Our indices and tables may not be much good yet, but they are improving and are under our control, effectively. Those fat cats are hopeless: a good computer programmer can build his stack on any network (it doesn't even need to be wired), so even their best stratagems are quickly surmountable.