MOSCOW — The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum -- Russia's Davos -- opened with a speech by President Dmitry Medvedev. It was a frank speech, a tough speech. "It is incorrect to focus on calm, slow growth. It is a mistake," he said. "This infamous stability can hide another period of stagnation.... This is why we must quickly and deliberately change everything that hampers breakthrough development." After listing some of Russia's achievements since the collapse of the Soviet Union, he laid out his vision: privatizing government assets, overhauling the legal system, lifting visa restrictions, lowering taxes, and fighting corruption. Or, as Medvedev so kindly put it, "The squeeze of the noose on the neck of corruptioneers must be constant and merciless."
The praise from Western writers was instant. It was "a blueprint for changing Russia," Medvedev's were "bold comments," he had "Set a Goal to Reform, Modernize and Decentralize Russia as Quickly as Possible," he had left investors "inspired" and "enthusiastic."
I bet he had. Such tough-love speeches are common and often heard at economic conferences from other high-ranking Kremlin liberals. They work because they're delivered by very smart, very persuasive people, people like First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov or privatization legend Anatoly Chubais, people who sound like they get it. And they do.
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Here's the thing, though: It's hard to differentiate between all those speeches, and not just among those delivered by various ministers. How does Medvedev's St. Petersburg speech, for example, differ from the speech he delivered to the Russian political elite in November 2009? And how does that, in turn, differ from its precursor, the "Forward, Russia!" editorial he penned in the oppositional newspaper Gazeta.ru? In all three, Medvedev talked about the stifling corruption in Russia, about its dangerous dependence on extraction, about the need to get some air into the Kremlin-controlled political system.
Here's the other thing: I'm not the only one who can't tell these speeches apart. Boris Makarenko is a well-known and intelligent political scientist at a think tank called the Institute of Contemporary Development that serves as Medvedev's brain trust. I asked him if there were any differences between this speech and past speeches Medvedev had made. Makarenko argued that Medvedev offered something "more concrete" this time around, that he spoke of lowering the vote threshold -- now set at 7 percent -- for entering the Parliament. (In other words, to get even a single seat, a party needs to get at least 7.01% of the vote. If it doesn't, the votes are split among all the other parties proportionally. This keeps smaller, often opposition parties out of Parliament.)
But Medvedev didn't mention that in his St. Petersburg speech. He didn't mention electoral politics at all. He did, however, mention it in Sunday's interview with the Financial Times:
For instance, once we raised the State Duma admittance threshold for political parties up to 7 percent I think this might be the right thing to do to achieve the organization of the political forces.... However, one day we will have to revise the decision and lower the barrier so that political competition improves and those unable to clear the 7 percent barrier can scrape together at least 5 percent or even 3 percent to get to the State Duma.
In fact, Medvedev first broached the issue in his November 2009 state of the union. "Didn't he mention this in November 2009?" I asked Makarenko.
"No, no he didn't," Makarenko said. Then he thought a minute and said, "Oh, yes, you're right. He did."
The real issue, of course, is why Medvedev continues to talk about the same things using the same words. No doubt, Medvedev and his crew know exactly what's going wrong in Russia and have some ideas about how to fix it. But even if they actually wanted to fix it -- and, given the interests at stake, that's a big if -- the real question is whether the people below them, the implementers, want to. And unfortunately, we have a pretty good idea of the answer to that question: They don't.
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