Faulty Intelligence

David Petraeus will be the next CIA chief. But is he the right man for the job?

BY JOSHUA ROVNER | JUNE 22, 2011

This week, the U.S. Senate will hold confirmation hearings for Gen. David Petraeus's nomination to take the helm at the Central Intelligence Agency. Petraeus is widely praised on Capitol Hill, and no one seriously believes his confirmation is in jeopardy. But it will be unfortunate if the hearing turns into a pro forma exercise, because there are reasons to doubt that he is right for the job.

In addition to espionage and covert action, the CIA director is responsible for the agency's analytical wing. He is also the official voice of the CIA at the White House, charged with delivering the agency's views to the president and the National Security Council. This requires satisfying legitimate policy requests while simultaneously protecting analysts from policy biases. Intelligence chiefs -- from Allen Dulles to George Tenet to everyone in between -- have long struggled to remain relevant to the policy process without losing their ability to remain objective. It is not an easy job.

Petraeus clearly has the political acumen to stay in the administration's good graces, but senators should ask how he can remain objective about current U.S. foreign policy, given that he is deeply vested in the current strategies in Iraq and Afghanistan. Petraeus has been the champion of a doctrinal transformation in the military, arguing that the key to success in counterinsurgency is the ability to make the government legitimate in the eyes of the people. This is an increasingly controversial position, not least because it requires an enormous long-term investment in the political and economic development of war-torn countries.

Petraeus is also deeply involved in the ongoing policy debate about the upcoming troop drawdown in Afghanistan. According to news reports, he has sided with Defense Secretary Robert Gates in trying to slow the pace of the withdrawal. Petraeus recently described success in the war as "fragile and reversible," which suggests that some kind of victory is still possible but that it will require much more time, money, and manpower. (News releases from Petraeus's command have supported his public statements, though critics have charged that these announcements seem allergic to bad news about the Taliban.)

If confirmed as CIA director, Petraeus will be in charge of the same analysts who will implicitly judge the results of his strategy. Suppose they judge it is failing. Will he faithfully transmit their conclusions to the president, or will he stifle dissent? Will he create an environment at the agency that is open to debate and disagreement, or will he pressure analysts to toe the line?

These are serious questions because history shows that the quality of analysis suffers when intelligence leaders become key players in policy debates. At the height of the Vietnam war, President Lyndon B. Johnson's administration enlisted intelligence officials to help justify its strategy to a skeptical public. It wanted to present evidence that the Viet Cong was withering under U.S. firepower, and it needed the imprimatur of the intelligence community to make its claims sound credible. Not all analysts agreed, however, and throughout the summer of 1967 a controversy raged within the intelligence community about the size and resilience of the enemy. To placate the White House, Director of Central Intelligence Richard Helms ultimately ordered his deputies to sign off on an estimate that offered clear support for the war. The estimate conveyed a false sense of consensus among analysts, causing readers to conclude that the intelligence community was fully on board with the administration's strategy.

Brendan Smialowski/Getty Images

 

Joshua Rovner is assistant professor of strategy and policy at the U.S. Naval War College and the author of Fixing the Facts: National Security and the Politics of Intelligence. The views here do not necessarily represent the Naval War College, the U.S. Navy, or the Department of Defense.

MUTT3003

2:42 PM ET

June 22, 2011

Another unfunny joke

Is there anybody in Washington that really cares about the American people. As if there are not 1000 better qualified people to head up the CIA. Tell these jokes of presidents we have been electing what they want to hear and you get a top job, regardless of qualifications. I understand that the postmaster general is in line to head up the wars in AFPAK - hey.. he's a general right!

 

BEINGTHERE

9:59 PM ET

June 22, 2011

Petraeus Never Asked Tough Questions by D.C. Insiders, Media

Isn't Petraeus getting the CIA post because Obama owes him for taking the demotion to the Afghan War command? The general wanted the Joint Chiefs job but did himself in with his constant self-promotion. Yes, the guy is smart. But the public is smarter and has begun to see his urging Obama to extend the war as a career builder (for Petraeus), this on the backs of the soldiers he "supported" and blowing billions on his nation-building pipe dream. The slick general has fooled the D.C. insiders, media and some military wonks, but his relentless, flashy image-building is undignified and obvious.The People are tired of him and sick of his war(s).Once again, David Petraeus will get a pass from his admirers, though - the old boys' club in Washington. Hopefully, we will see and hear less of this annoying little show-off when he is engaged in the "secret" work of the CIA.

 

AARKY

8:12 PM ET

June 23, 2011

Petraeous for the CIA

Beingthere-Your's is the best post so far. Petraeous was such a sychophant that he was willing to blatantly lie on behalf of the Bush/Cheney attempts to instigate an attack against Iran. We should all be deeply afraid that he will be nothing more than a new George Tenant; the good ole boy who gives the boss what they want to hear, rather than the hard facts.

 

BEINGTHERE

10:12 PM ET

June 22, 2011

Petraeus Wife to Keep Her Job? Help Him Prepare for 2016 Run?

Petraeus has always been on the public dole - probably one more reason his war efforts could suck up the taxpayers' billions and he didn't blink - but what about his wife's Federal job? Is this a conflict of interest, or just the Feds doing biz as usual to let Mrs. P. retain her federally funded position? Is their son still on the government (Army) payroll, too.

Would not be wise for Gen. P. to run for president in 2016. He may be the savvy keeper of secrets, but many of his will spill forth if he runs in '16. Apparently, some of them would be humiliating to a man who had carefully crafted his image as a compassionate commander, super patriot and family man.

 

JNORDLANDER

4:19 PM ET

June 23, 2011

?

First prize for being the first person to conflate commanding troops in combat and the public dole. Congrats

 

AATAYYAB

12:48 PM ET

June 23, 2011

pls. STOP wars

USA is gaining nothing but ridicule all across the world by following such war-mongering, neocon and zionist policies. pls end these wars already to save USA from any further embarrassment.

 

JNORDLANDER

4:17 PM ET

June 23, 2011

I must disagree

"arguing that the key to success in counterinsurgency is the ability to make the government legitimate in the eyes of the people. This is an increasingly controversial position, not least because it requires an enormous long-term investment in the political and economic development of war-torn countries".

I don't think that making "government legitimate in the eyes of the people" is a controversial position of counterinsurgency. That may be a controversial fact because of the enormous long-term investment, but not because its centrality in successful counterinsurgency operations is in question. In this sense, the question is not whether we want to build legitimate governments while practicing counterinsurgency but rather whether we want to practice counterinsurgency at all.

"Petraeus will be in charge of the same analysts who will implicitly judge the results of his strategy. Suppose they judge it is failing. Will he faithfully transmit their conclusions to the president, or will he stifle dissent? Will he create an environment at the agency that is open to debate and disagreement, or will he pressure analysts to toe the line?"

I also think this is off base. Now Petraeus has proven himself to be the consumate poltical general. Yet I doubt this will preclude him from being an effective CIA Director. Personal characteristics aside, Petraeus does not need Afghanistan or Iraq to succeed to maintain his standing. Petraeus's fame, deservedly so, stems from pulling Iraq back from the brink post 2006.

 

PKOULIEV

4:50 PM ET

June 23, 2011

Gen. Petraeus

“The key to success in counterinsurgency is the ability to make the government legitimate in the eyes of the people.” - Gen. David Petraeus

Even Gen. Petraeus realizes that any ‘government’ taken over power of a country by force and falsifying elections would not be able to stop strikes of militant groups without working civil institutions and participating citizens.

 

KUNINO

5:56 PM ET

June 23, 2011

Still not clear to me

Is David Petraeus an exceptionally successful military executive, or one who was lucky to get a near-free ride from flattering brief mentions in a book read at the White House and written by Tom Ricks of CNAS?

Is skill at military leadership an indicator of success at leading the CIA? There have been many former military officers in that position, and those do not seem to stick out as the Agency's golden years.

 

MARRIOND

11:42 AM ET

July 18, 2011

The problem that exists (and

The problem that exists (and will exists probably forever, or at least until there is a major change in the system) is that there are political pressures on almost anyone. There can be political pressure on a bank employee who can give or not give a loan to someone who has used a house payment calculator at home and figured out what he can get from the bank. If he is "our guy" there will be no problem. If he is not, well, there may be some difficulties. And don't laugh, I've seen it with my own eyes.
Then there are local levels of politics, where someone gets a building permit and someone else does not.
And if there is political pressure at such low levels, just imagine how much pressure is there at the top.
So yes, there is a whole lot of pressure and if gen. Petraeus (or anyone else) wants to keep a job, he has to cope with it. Let's just hope the pressure (or the politics) won't ruin everything there is still standing.

 

AUKPERSPECTIVE

3:34 PM ET

July 18, 2011

Petraeus has an outstanding international reputation

Petraeus is very well regarded internationally and these contacts are likely to be helpful in his new role surely?. He also was in effect a customer of the CIA so has a very good perspective on the quality of their work without being an insider with all the baggage that might bring. Conflicts of interest? Yes but I suspect less than would exist for a CIA or or Washington insider - past favours, skeletons and all that. So he has sharp elbows - so what I suspect you need them there? Let review at Christmas . One thing is for sure and that is he is first rate and does not mind rocking the boat that cannot be bad.