The 2012 Horse Whisperers

Who's giving foreign-policy advice to the crop of GOP front-runners?

BY JOSH ROGIN | JULY 5, 2011

It's officially summer, and the GOP presidential campaign is heating up. Tim Pawlenty is planning more stumping in Iowa, Michele Bachmann has now officially entered the race, and multiple potential candidates are waiting in the wings -- preparing to enter the fray if the leading contenders stumble. And though all the pundits have proclaimed that this election will be dominated by talk of the economy and jobs, there has been a surprising amount of foreign-policy chatter in the first few months -- even though the major Republican candidates are still forming their brain trusts and their foreign-policy identities.

So who's whispering in the ear of the front-runners? Who's advising them of the sound position to take for an electorate both war weary and yet concerned about national security? Of the four main candidates right now, only Jon Huntsman can creditably claim to be a foreign-policy expert -- and he's looking like a realist. Mitt Romney is trying to balance his talk of renewed American primacy with his realization that the country is both tired of unlimited interventions and cash-strapped. Pawlenty is staking out his ground as a hawk but doesn't want to be tagged with the neoconservative label. Bachmann is also sounding a hawkish note, taking the mantle from Sarah Palin in pushing the Tea Party's isolationist impulses toward an aggressive national security agenda.

Complicating the candidates' mission, the Republican Party has been deeply split or at least seriously confused about its national security identity in recent weeks. There's no consensus on how to proceed in Afghanistan, other than to say that politics should not trump national security considerations. There's no agreement on what to do in Libya, other than to blame President Barack Obama for mishandling the situation there. GOP leadership is contemplating supporting defense budget cuts, to the chagrin of the party's military hawks.

Meanwhile, the vast majority of the Republican and conservative foreign-policy professionals and think-tankers in Washington have yet to pick a horse. "What's really struck me is how everybody has stayed away from being identified with a particular candidate," said Danielle Pletka, vice president of the American Enterprise Institute. "Four years ago at this time, everybody was lined up in one place or the other. Now, everybody is certainly providing counsel to lots of the candidates, but people aren't climbing into bed with anyone."

That may be true, but the candidates are quietly getting their ducks in a row, consulting a wide range of experts, and lining up Washington's foreign-policy elite. And, with a bit of digging, we found some surprises. So, at slight risk of jumping in a bit early, here's Foreign Policy's look at who's on board with the front-runners and what it might mean for Campaign 2012.

EMMANUEL DUNAND/AFP/Getty Images

 

Josh Rogin writes The Cable blog for ForeignPolicy.com.

ROMAN TILES

8:53 PM ET

July 5, 2011

First Two Comments

What is with the advertising comments? It isn't even political or news related! Unless it's where Michelle Bachmann and Sarah Palin shop lol C:

 

ROMAN TILES

10:28 PM ET

July 5, 2011

?

Where did their comments go? I am confused now...

 

WHATGREATIS

1:49 AM ET

July 6, 2011

Huntsman

I really hope he becomes the GOP candidate.

 

PAPICEK

10:16 AM ET

July 7, 2011

this is rich...

"three main candidates who are all advocating increased military spending"

When we already spend as much as the rest of the world put together.

I'm rather sorry that I read this article, as I expect no more than political positioning, and I wasn't disappointed. Bacevich is right. I've been right all along. A sane, realistic discussion on policy isn't possible.

 

MLABRECHE

10:17 AM ET

July 7, 2011

What about Ron Paul?

Ron Paul, the only real conservative Republican in the race who advocates a humble foreign policy. Isn't that worth talking about?!

 

ITONLYSTANDSTOREASON

2:22 PM ET

July 7, 2011

Stuck in the Past

Other than Huntsman, these candidates all are stuck in the mindset of good guys vs bad guys, finding an enemy and fighting, rather than finding a competitor or opponent and figuring out how to modify their behavior in support of our national interests.

A problem they face is that Obama is pretty hawkish himself. The only way to get to his right is to promise the contradictory (boosting the economy while diverting more wealth to an over-extended military) and the foolish (enabling more bad behavior by Israel).

I hope someone will call these warriors for democracy on their pretensions. What would they have done about Mubarak? Should the Saudi monarchy come or go? How many years more should we be willing to fight in Afghanistan?

 

AUKPERSPECTIVE

3:11 PM ET

July 7, 2011

What is it with Republican / Tea Party women candidates

I am coming from this from a UK perspective so please forgive my lack of knowledge on US current affairs.

The impression we get in the UK is that you have these very grey Republican men but these amazingly spunky Republican women each with more personality than all the male candidates put together. Plus they do really risky things like drive across the States with bikers. I mean that just could not happen in the UK.

We also do not have a grass roots movement like the Tea Party if fact no European country has. All the folksy religous stuff seems strange too. But most strange of all is that they actually sem to really believe what they are saying which is sort of invigorating.

Of course in could just be a PR trick you coud learn at any marketing corporate event of the Mr(s) Smith Goes to Washington sort of but if so it comes across really convincingly at least in the UK.

Might be different upclose

 

BENJAMINFRANKLIN

4:14 PM ET

July 7, 2011

Political pandering

Republican candidates' foreign policy consists of deciding what the voters want, and then pandering to it. Their problem is figuring out what the voters want. You can be sure that if one of them ends up in power, Israel and the military industrial complex, described by President Eisenhower, will be well taken care of, no matter what the candidate campaigned on.