Trouble Down South

For Saudi Arabia, Yemen's implosion is a nightmare.

BY ELLEN KNICKMEYER | JULY 5, 2011

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia — Border buffer zone aside, it can be hard, in some ways, to figure out where the Saudi state ends and the Yemeni state begins. Ordinary Yemenis, for example, still make the journey north to the Saudi Red Sea city of Jeddah to attend the majalis, or councils, of King Abdullah. There the Yemenis petition the Saudi monarch for favors and cash handouts, with the blessings of Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh. "Go try your luck," Saleh, ever pragmatic, is quoted as once telling his people on their cross-border begging missions.

In many ways, Saleh and Saudi Arabia allowed the Yemeni state and its elites to go on the Saudi dole as well. Since the 1980s at least, wealthy Saudi Arabia, with its habit of dispensing largesse to soothe troubles and cement loyalties, has routinely dispensed up to several billion dollars annually to thousands of Yemeni tribal leaders, security officials, and other Yemeni elites, as well as to Yemen's government. But by all accounts, the flow of Saudi patronage has narrowed to far fewer tribal leaders amid Yemen's present upheaval.

These days, in a further blurring of frontiers, Saleh presides not from his outwardly nondescript walled compound in the Yemeni capital of Sanaa, but from a hospital bed in the Saudi capital of Riyadh. Saleh, medicated for pain, is recovering from a June 3 assassination attempt. Aides acting in his name issue birthday greetings to fellow world leaders to try to show the Yemeni president still feebly in charge. After five months of state collapse in Yemen and his own near death, however, the president is no longer politically capable of wielding power, but remains temperamentally incapable of yielding it. Saudis urge Saleh to quit while he still has "honor, rather than leave with danger and harassment," said Prince Turki bin Mohammed bin Saud al-Kabeer, the Foreign Ministry's undersecretary for multilateral relations, but the badly burned Yemeni leader still refuses to sign a Saudi-backed deal for his resignation.

For Yemenis, suffering under worsening shortages of food, water, gasoline, and electricity in a country adrift, the answer to the question of what comes next in the stalemate lies partly with Saleh, partly with themselves, and partly with Saudi Arabia.

Critics for decades have accused Saudi Arabia of purposefully fostering a Yemeni government too immature to ever pose a state threat to Saudis. "Keep Yemen weak," King Abdul Aziz is supposed to have told his sons on his deathbed, in one of two such warnings the founder of the modern Saudi state handed down to his sons and grandsons.

GAMAL NOMAN/AFP/Getty Images

 

Ellen Knickmeyer is a former Washington Post Middle East bureau chief and Associated Press Africa bureau chief. The Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting contributed to the costs of reporting this article.

DANIELSERWER

12:39 PM ET

July 5, 2011

All the King's horses

men, money and medical help can't keep Saleh out of Yemen or get him to resign in favor of his VP? As Barbara Bodine suggests, the Saudis don't seem to get much for what they give. Or is there something else going on here?

Daniel Serwer
www.peacefare.net

 

MARKVERMOUH

7:05 PM ET

July 11, 2011

Saudi Arabia & Kuwait Would Raise Moral Issues For West

It will get difficult for West if it is our closest allies in Middle East putting down democratic revolutions violently. So far that has not really happened in the Libyan sense (although SA involvement in Yemen getting a bit too close for comfort I think) . Really not sure what West would do if that event did happen though. Could we turn our back on Kuwait & SA and risk our oil supplies. What would West have done if it was Libya sending in support to Yemen - although to be fair SA seem to be brokering a peaceful resolution too. Hmmmmm.

 

TAVARES

9:12 AM ET

July 14, 2011

The "coalition of the

The "coalition of the interested" rally behind the Saudis to stamp out all opposition on the entire peninsula - Emirates, Oman, Jordan, Yemen. The U.S., Britain, France Tavares all have multiple military bases on the peninsula, and together with Germany "train" the repressive forces and equip the military with many billions of the best armaments.

 

DANNY41

2:07 PM ET

August 1, 2011

Trouble Down South

I don't think the Muslim Brotherhood can be trusted to limit themselves as they keep saying (and forgetting). The secular revolutionaries and those muslims who do not want an actual islamic state need to combine against this. Unfortunately the Brotherhood has always been allowed to wait in the wings by the regime just for this purpose, so the speed of the elections plus the military rule favours their pre-existent organisation.

If they win elections, in this way some in the west and the rightists can have their predictions proved - that the consequences of the Egyptian revolution, and by default any revolution, is bad, worse, evil, despotic, not worth to have psychic jobs for it, etc., but they would also get what they want politically, a return to a 'stable' authoritarian rule, another easily manipulable capitalist despotism.