Lights Out

By targeting Syria's energy sector, the United States can hit President Bashar al-Assad where it really hurts -- his pocketbook.

BY ANDREW TABLER | JULY 19, 2011

Four months into Syria's uprising, the violence wracking the country is bad and getting worse. The restive city of Homs witnessed sectarian clashes over the weekend that reportedly left dozens dead, while forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad converged on the eastern town of Abu Kamal. As the Assad regime's iron-fist-in-a-velvet-glove approach to the uprising continues to fail, all eyes are focused on the Aug. 1 start of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, when the minority Alawite regime's killing of predominately Sunni protesters could transform the uprising into a sectarian bloodbath.

This bloodshed, which is tragic in its own right, is also causing the sputtering Syrian economy to grind to a halt. Such a development would be particularly dangerous for Assad, as it could cause the business elite in the commercial hubs of Damascus and Aleppo to finally break ties with the regime and join ranks with the opposition. Iran, Assad's staunch ally, is no doubt aware of the threat; Tehran is reportedly mulling a $5.8 billion aid package to Syria, as well as providing a daily supply of 290,000 barrels of oil for the next month. Fortunately, cash-strapped Iran does not have the resources to indefinitely bail out Assad if the United States organizes a Western effort to hit Syria in its Achilles' heel -- namely, its energy revenues.

The longer the Assad regime teeters, the more violent and bloody Syria is likely to become. The Syrian people, the United States, and the international community, therefore, share a common interest in having as short a transition as possible. To help end the bloodshed and bring about a quicker demise of the Assad regime, Washington should now be more ruthless with the Assad regime as well.

Syria produces around 390,000 barrels per day (BPD), down from a high of 600,000 BDP in 1996, and about 6 billion cubic meters of gas annually. Of that, Syria exports around 148,000 BDP of heavy and sour "Souedie" crude, with revenues accruing directly to the state; all gas is used domestically. According to the International Monetary Fund and U.S. government estimates, oil sales account for around one-third of state revenue, with the remainder increasingly made up through corporate and public-sector employee taxes.

But the protests have hit the Syrian economy and currency hard, a fact that is expected to substantially decrease tax receipts. Damascus, therefore, is likely to become increasingly reliant on oil revenue. This in turn would constrain the regime's ability to fund the security services and the army (the primary bodies responsible for the brutal crackdown), maintain market subsidies (e.g., for diesel fuel and gasoline), and pay off vital regime patronage networks.

Declining revenue will also force the regime to resort to more deficit spending. It could borrow against the $17 billion in reserves at the Central Bank of Syria, but this would essentially be printing money, causing inflation that would undermine the Syrian pound and confidence in the banking system. The regime could borrow more from state-owned and private-sector banks, where the Damascene and Aleppine business elite put their savings. But as the protests continue to grow and the cost of doing business with the Assad regime dramatically increases, Syrian merchants and businessmen are likely to pull their deposits. Either scenario would undermine the regime's economic lifeline and help spur elite defections -- a key element to developing a new political order.

Beyond the targeted sanctions on Syrian officials already imposed by President Barack Obama's administration, Washington has tools for leveraging Syrian energy and depriving the Assad regime of critical foreign exchange earnings. Here are six ways to up the pressure:

HASSAN AMMAR/AFP/Getty Images

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Andrew Tabler is the Next Generation fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and author of the forthcoming book In the Lion's Den: An Eyewitness Account of Washington's Battle with Syria.

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ZORRO

3:46 AM ET

July 20, 2011

Sanctions Never Work

Israel on the other hand would benefit by a weakened Syria and European countries being in a permanent conflict with Syria.
WINEP is transparent as usual.

 

MINISTRY OF PROPAGANDA D.R.G.

12:10 PM ET

July 20, 2011

Cui bono, Tabler?

This is a poorly-reasoned article, but, lamentably, is what passes for serious discourse argument among the intellectual leadership in Washington who do not have to be held accountable for or deal with the consequences of their foreign policy recommendations. Let’s take a close look at Tabler’s article…
In the first paragraph, Tabler sets the scene: there is emerging sectarian violence in Syria (immediately we should be reminding ourselves of the sectarian civil war that occurred as a result of U.S.-led regime change in Iraq and the fall of the secular Iraqi Ba’ath Party) and the government is responding to challenges to its authority and sovereignty. Tabler then warns the reader that there could be a “bloodbath” come Ramadan, presumably because that’s when Muslims are most fervent.
In the second paragraph, we’re informed that this mess is slowing down the Syrian economy. Though this is certainly bad news for the Syrian people who make, on average, only $4,800 a year, Tabler sees a silver lining. A weakened economy would be “particularly” bad for the “regime.” One would think it would be particularly bad for those who make up the country’s lower economic strata and not so bad for the political elite who, as history has shown, are pretty good at clinging onto power even while swimming in dire economic straits . (If you don’t believe me, ask the denizens of Burma, Cuba, Iran, Iraq, North Korea, and Zimbabwe; they’ll tell you). At this point in the article, we should take a moment to notice Tabler’s modern Newspeak. Potential “bloodbaths,” as opposed to “maintaining law and order,” demand foreign interference; “regimes,” as opposed to “governments,” are just begging to be overthrown; and “protesters,” as opposed to “rebels,” are hapless and peaceful.
In the third paragraph, Tabler makes his case. Because violence in Syria is, by his reasoning, likely to increase (remember, at this point we’re still talking about what is essentially a domestic issue), the Syrian people (read: the rebels, er, protestors), the U.S., and the “international community” (notice Israel’s CONSPICUOUS absence despite still being at war with Syria and being the major beneficiary of a weakened Syrian government and military) should work ruthlessly to overthrow a secular Arab government that is not actively targeting American strategic interests. Don’t bother checking your calendar. It’s 2011; not 2002. I know, déjà vu, right?
After making his case, Tabler lists six ways to hurt the Syrian economy by targeting its oil sector, something few states would likely do given the rising demand for oil.
Tabler undermines his thesis toward the end of the article by stating that this strategy could hurt the Syrian population as a whole if it wasn’t applied precisely (and how does one do that exactly?). He also mentions that our usual European sanction partners are suffering from “sanction fatigue” (i.e. the United States could not expect them to reliably cooperate) and that sanctions brought against Iran (a Syrian ally) have had “mixed results” (read: FAILED to achieve their objective of halting Iran’s uranium enrichment program).
To get the Europeans on board, Tabler suggests beginning with “pinpointed” sanction measures, but how does one “pinpoint” sanctions targeted at an industry that is the lifeblood of an economy? He doesn’t say because the details don’t matter. What matters to Tabler and the other Very Serious People in Washington (and Tel Aviv) is regime change.
The article ends warmly by hoping for a “transition to a more humane government for the Syrian people.” Awww.
Typical of Beltway thinking regarding foreign policy, Tabler spends an inordinate amount of attention on the “how” and very little on the “why.” If your political loyalty is to the United States as opposed to, say, Israel, then you might ask, “How does working to topple the Syrian government, and in so doing, sew chaos among its security forces; bring the economy to its knees; inflame sectarian tensions; and tear apart the country’s delicate social fabric, enhance the United States’ position strategically in the world?” I have seen first-hand how doing all of the above has done the OPPOSITE next door in Iraq, so I am loath to see a repeat.
I wish the people of Syria the best, but whatever happens, it is their fight. From a security standpoint, the last thing the United States needs to do is be seen trying to orchestrate (another) regime change in a majority-Muslim, majority-Arab country and create conditions that when violated (and they most certainly would be violated) would have to be either ignored or enforced, the latter of which could pave the road to future hostilities in Syria involving U.S. forces.

 

JAYDEE001

3:03 PM ET

July 20, 2011

ADMIRE YOUR NAME, MINISTRY

You have done an excellent job of skewering Tabler's arguments in favor of another intervention in a middle-eastern nation.

I wonder what it is about the character of advocates for interventionist US-based "analysts" that makes them want to impose economic sanctions on any country and leadership we suddenly don't like any longer? Then there is always the argument that if sanctions don't bring about the change we are seeking, lets launch a few cruise missiles, send in the drones, conduct selected bombing, or maybe send in some CIA operatives to destabilize the offending regime.

If none of that works, we can always send in troops, or perhaps achieve regime change by assassination (as some have suggested in other comments here). Of course, none of this will guarantee a government that will improve the lot of the Syrian people, or respect their human rights. It is just as likely they would get an even more oppressive regime. Our track record with regime change in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya looks pretty abysmal so far.

When did the US become the world's cop? Don't we have enough to do at home? Given our haphazard foreign policy, polarized Congressional mechanism, politicized courts, and weakening economy, would it not be better to tackle some of our own long-standing issues before trying to remedy the problems of every second-rate country on the planet?

 

MACCHIAVELLI

5:59 PM ET

July 20, 2011

the US needs to wait a little

the US needs to wait a little bit longer to see where the silent majority in syria comes through on Assad. the middle class is loyal to themselves in syria, not the protestors or the elites.

everyone wants status quo in the middle east...including the US.

 

POLITICALANIMAL

3:56 PM ET

August 9, 2011

Who will replace Assad?

I suspect that America's and the West's reticence generally to really up the pressure and make Assad and his government face the music is the question of who will replace him? There are number of active Islamic groups in Syria including the Muslim Brotherhood in Hama. It is difficult to see why we should want to help them given they have been singing the praises of Jihad for many years and threw street parties after 9/11. This of course contrasts with Libya where the rebels are primarily secular. Lets sit this one out.

 

DEREK TAMIYA

11:09 PM ET

August 14, 2011

light outs

An aging, former world heavyweight champion, Patrick "Lights" Leary is an extremely proud, good-hearted, Irish American who is struggling to find his identity after retiring from his beloved boxing. After years of wear and tear in the ring, he is diagnosed with pugilistic dementia (a neurological disorder that affects boxers who suffered too many hits to the head, gradually causing memory loss and constant headaches). Now, Lights is struggling to support his family (a wife and three daughters) and their comfortably secure lifestyle in Bayonne, jenny mccarthy, after his amoral and incompetent brother/business manager squanders Lights' life savings.Running out of ways—and time—to earn enough money to re-secure his family's future, Leary must decide whether to either: accept the brutal and demeaning job of debt collector for a local racketeer; or, launch a long shot, health-risking, comeback for the huge payday that would result from becoming "the champ" once again.

 

CHANGS

12:28 PM ET

August 16, 2011

Takes the entire world

It takes the entire world for sanctions to work. It does not do much good if London, Europe or the U.S impose sanctions if China and Middle East countries such as Saudi Arabia violate the sanctions for their political gain.

ChangS