Norway's Oklahoma City?

The real question is: Why are big terrorist attacks so rare?

BY DANIEL BYMAN | JULY 22, 2011

As the horrors of the bombing and shooting spree in Norway become clearer, Americans are both expressing their sympathy and asking whether it could happen here. As of writing, it's still unclear whether these gruesome attacks are the act of a lone domestic gunman, an international terrorist network, or some odd, imagined combination of both. This may yet turn out to be Norway's 9/11 or its Oklahoma City. But the scene of destruction in downtown Oslo does beg the question: why haven't there been more large-scale terrorist attacks on the U.S. homeland?

Yes, the United States remains vulnerable to violence, whether terrorist or not. School shootings at Columbine and Virginia Tech and the deaths that surrounded the attack on Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords are painful reminders of how easy it is for angry or deluded individuals to pick up a gun and kill large numbers of people. Indeed, with this reminder, the relative safety of the U.S. homeland from terrorists since 9/11 becomes all the more remarkable.

Let's remember, of course, that there have been some "successful" attacks and a few near-misses. Army Major Nidal Malik Hassan, who allegedly shot 13 people at Fort Hood in 2009, appears to have been inspired by a jihadist agenda. Richard Reid and Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the shoebomber and underwear bomber respectively, both came terrifyingly close to downing airplanes and killing hundreds of Americans. Also in 2009, Najibullah Zazi was arrested for planning suicide bombings of the New York subway system after being trained by al Qaeda in Pakistan. So without a little bad luck by terrorists, the courage of passengers on two airplanes, and the vigilance of U.S. security officials, the body count in the United States could be far worse.

Yet it is more than this mix of serendipity and skill that has, so far, spared us from the horrors that engulfed Oslo.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the FBI, and local police are far more vigilant in going after terrorism than was the U.S. government in the pre-9/11 era. Of course, there was no DHS before 9/11 -- its very creation underlines how terrorism became an important policy priority. These agencies, especially DHS, have a long ways to go, but simply by paying attention to suspect individuals coming into the country and trying to operate on U.S. soil they have been able to pick up many would-be terrorists who might have otherwise gone undetected. FBI surveillance and sting operations against suspects have also prevented plots from coming close to fruition. In fact, terrorists often now think the FBI and DHS are more capable than they are, making them more cautious about targeting America. Hence all the talk today of Norway being a "soft target" by comparison.

JON BREDO OVERAAS/AFP/Getty Images

 

Daniel Byman is a professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University and a Senior Fellow at the Saban Center at Brookings. His latest book is A High Price: The Triumphs and Failures of Israeli Counterterrorism.

MOSTINVOLVED

8:10 PM ET

July 22, 2011

American B.S.

I can not believe how the author turned this into some sort of 'poor America' story. I truly despise you for this. This catastrophe has nothing to do with the US, but you have somehow managed to portray this as an anti-US sentiment.
Eff you, you selfish American pig.

 

NORBOOSE

12:06 AM ET

July 23, 2011

What are you talking about?

How is this a poor America story? I simply have no idea what you are talking about. Calm down, and read it again from a fresh perspective.

 

STRIVER

9:40 AM ET

July 23, 2011

NORBOOSE

You can't read or you have a sinister perstective.

 

NORBOOSE

1:24 PM ET

July 23, 2011

Hmm...maybe

I know there are people who fear monger like that, but this doesnt seem to be one of those. It doesnt urge any drastic actions from the US. It doesnt dramatize the threat. It doesnt act like a single sucsessful terrorist attack would end America. If anything, it seems to be reassuring. I don't know the author, though.

 

ORGANICREASON

3:16 PM ET

July 24, 2011

Semi-related: The difference between Norway and the US

George W. Bush, 11/09/2001: "We're gonna hunt you down."

Stoltenberg, 22/7/2011: "We will retaliate with more democracy".

-organic blog

 

LIQUIANIO

5:03 AM ET

August 14, 2011

Well...

Well, i think those who give themselves over to hate can find constant support and rationalization in their beliefs, and immerse themselves in a morass of paranoia and self-victimization, like trouver une nounou dans le pas de calais, or something like that.

 

COUNTCHOCULA1011

9:54 PM ET

July 22, 2011

 

PHILIP FINN

11:40 PM ET

July 22, 2011

Why few attacks?

Perhaps the terrorist threat is not now nor has ever been what we were told...that we have more to fear from people who have been told that Labor and Liberals are the problem, as certainly seems the case in Oslo.

 

AMBOYCHARLIE

1:16 AM ET

July 23, 2011

You're Looking Pretty Silly

With your interview pinning the blame reflexively on Al Qaida, and now trying to say its anti-American. Just goes to show you what the experts know. They know their area of expertise and want to see it as belonging to same, so of course they indulge in such speculation. This article is just a face saving, following the earlier knee jerk reaction.

When is going to occur to you guys to start asking yourselves, who benefits? In the case of 9-11 it was the national security elites (otherwise known as the neocons.) The very same elites that, a few months before, had said in a public document that a Pearl Harbor type incident would be necessary to justify a war against the Islamic Fundamentalists they'd been talking about as an emerging threat ever since Glasnost appeared on the scene. Many of that documents signatories were members of the notorious Team B, that made the wrong assessment of the Soviet threat, but somehow got it accepted as the basis of our foreign policy during the Reagan/Bush years, when we watched the Soviet Union collapse.

 

MARTY MARTEL

5:04 AM ET

July 23, 2011

Only solution - Offer more aid to Pakistan

Only solution for Norway is to do what US did in 2001 - open the aid spigots to Pakistan and again attack Taliban bases in Afghanistan while totally ignoring Taliban/Al Qaeda‘s Pakistani roots.

Nobody forced Pakistani government to facilitate relocation of Osama bin Laden from Sudan to Afghanistan in 1996. Democratic government of Pakistan chose to do so of its own free will.

As Sandy Berger, Clinton’s national security advisor told 9/11 Commission in 2004, Pakistani Army was the midwife of Taliban. UN report on Bhutto killing released on 4/15/10 confirmed this fact when it noted that "The PAKISTANI MILITARY ORGANIZED AND SUPPORTED THE TALIBAN TO TAKE CONTROL OF AFGHANISTAN IN 1996“.

 

VODKA

1:59 PM ET

July 24, 2011

welcome to CHRISTIAN TERRORISM............

cry Marty Martel BABY CRY....................

 

ROCK1111

9:43 AM ET

July 23, 2011

Proper English, please

"But the scene of destruction in downtown Oslo does beg the question"

This is not what "to beg the question" means. "Begging the question" is a type of logical fallacy with a proper meaning entirely unrelated to "posing the question" or "leading to the question.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Begging_the_question

 

KEBEC1

7:02 PM ET

July 23, 2011

Begs the question

I was going to say the same, but I'm afraid we're fighting a losing battle on the use of this phrase.

 

STRIVER

9:57 AM ET

July 23, 2011

Emergence of radicalised euprean youth

FP's interviewer seems to be obssessed with Al-Qaida.

What it fails to look at is how the US lies about the Muslims is affecting the mind of the European youth. It is being radicalised.

The next 5 years are crticial as the US pulls out of Afghanistan and State Departmetn's works overtime spreading more lies about Muslims. What will that mean for the young in Europe. More radicalisation? I hope not.

 

STRIVER

10:00 AM ET

July 23, 2011

...............European youth

tying skills rusty....

 

STRIVER

10:02 AM ET

July 23, 2011

 

NSC LOS ANGELES

4:50 PM ET

July 25, 2011

You're so right

Islam is all sunshine and roses. Nothing to see here folks.

 

BILLSRIGHT

11:39 AM ET

July 23, 2011

Scary

When I heard that a bombing and shooting happened concurrently I thought it would be a native or native convert because jihadis are not normally that competent.

My bet is still on him being a convert because lone killers don’t normally use car bombs. That sort of thing is almost always political and with the nature of the second target I think that much is all but confirmed. The most active political terrorist group is currently Islam so that is still where the money is.

 

CAMILLAM

10:10 PM ET

July 27, 2011

Well, this guy is a CHRISTIAN

Well, this guy is a CHRISTIAN extremist, they do exist, you know...Lone killers don't use car bombs? How about Oklahoma?
It was political and religious, aimed at the most liberal party in Norway.
You can still go on believing it was the muslims, though...Some people never lister to reason.

 

STEERPIKE

7:48 PM ET

July 23, 2011

This looks like the work of an Islam hater

A Norwegian islamophobic terrorist murders young members of an liberal party. One might expect a discussion on growing intolerance towards religious minorities, how extremist views on Muslims can poison a young man's mind, the mainstreaming of far right politics and how those who tout such views bear some responsibility for the loss of innocent lives.

Instead we get a list of all the attacks carried out by Muslim extremist groups. That makes about as much sense as following an attack by alqueda in the US by listing every neo-nazi group in Europe.

 

BOB JACOBSON

8:56 AM ET

July 25, 2011

This article was absurd. It

This article was absurd. It dealt almost not at all with the rise of nativist, armed, reactionary elements in the USA -- the type of people among whom Brevik would be at home -- and instead meandered off in pursuit of Al Qaeda and overseas assassins. This is in keeping with the august professor's profession as advisor to our national official anti-terrorist organizations, DHS, FBI, CIA, etc., which have focused on the overseas threat to the exclusion of the threat at home. I guess when you're a hammer, every threat is a nail.

The Southern Poverty Law Center's annual census of right-wing militia reports enormous growth among militias in the USA and an abundance of high-powered arms to keep them happy during their war games in which we, the American people, are the Bad Guys.

You can read about and download the SPLC report,
_Rage on the Right_ (2010), here:
http://www.splcenter.org/get-informed/news/splc-report-number-of-patriot-groups-militias-surges-by-244-in-past-year

Ever since Obama quailed before Republican protests and the DHS was forced to recant its 2009 report on the threat of violence from the right-wing, the government has gone soft on this immanent threat which prolonged economic distress could bring to the surface at any time.

You can download a copy of DHS' _Rightwing Extremism_
here: http://www.fas.org/irp/eprint/rightwing.pdf

That the right-wing is the greatest political source of violence in America has been the rule consistently, from lynchings and riots to J. Edgar Hoover's abuses, from McVeigh to the murders of gays and abortion providers, from violence against immigrants to torchings of synagogues and mosques, and so on. The notable exception (so far as we know) has been 9/11.

Our government, however, persists on focusing on the exception and not the rule, perhaps because of a too-close sharing of authoritarian sympathies. All Americans live in peril all the time. Just remember the last time a car with Stars & Strips flying from every window stopped next to you at a red light. If you're like me, you trembled just a bit. With sad but good reason.

 

RAPIDIAN

10:58 AM ET

July 25, 2011

Right on

Absolutely right, the primary terror threat facing America is of the same nature as the recent tragic attacks in Norway. Radicalized individuals from the far right are often ignored or overlooked as a legitimate source of danger, but the reports from groups such as the SPLC detail just how many attempts have been prevented by law enforcement. It's just so much easier for people to blame Muslims for acts of terrorism than it is for them to recognize violent and extremist elements within the accepted culture of their own state as being a legitimate problem. The article completely fails to address anything relevant to the recent events in Norway, and displays Americans' own Islamophobia, since the article was written before the nature of the terrorist acts was ascertained.

 

SIEGGY

9:11 AM ET

July 25, 2011

Hate is hate is hate . . .

One of the biggest problems here is that everyone is trying to blame someone else and see more than there is here. The person to blame is this fanatic, who felt he was justified in mass murder to make his point. This is nothing new, there have been 'mad bombers' for hundreds of yeas now. However, with the advances of technology and immediate information on pretty much everything, what used to be a bundle of dynamite, a mine, or a grenade is now a truck bomb or a suicide vest, and what use to be a pistol is now a full auto rifle. The arms race is to the bottom as well . . .

Those who give themselves over to hate can find constant support and rationalization in their beliefs, and immerse themselves in a morass of paranoia and self-victimization. They go to websites that reinforce their views, tell them that everything they believe is absolutely right, and that anyone disagreeing with them is somehow inferior thus making them a legitimate target. They watch news that tells them what they want to hear, that they're not only right, but things are worse than they thought because of "THOSE" people. They read papers and magazines that agree with their worldview totally and place the blame for all their woes on some other group. Whether it's on the right or left, you can literally surround yourself with voices who agree with you and none who disagree.

And in that positive feedback loop where so many compete to see who can take the most extreme stands, you're inevitably going to have those whose fears and frustrations make them go beyond mere fuming, blogging, and ranting to murderous action. Brevik is but another in a long line of "True Believers" who feel justified in whatever horror they inflict, the worse the better. Timothy MacVeigh was one, Charles Manson another.

While I think that his enablers bear some share of the blame, what it boils down to is that this evil person committed mass murder because of his own, personal hate pure and simple. No conspiracy, no global threat, just another deranged madman who feels sane and justified because he knows that he's right and everyone else is wrong. There's nothing new here, and sadly there will be more like him in the future.

 

TEAMMATE

11:12 AM ET

July 25, 2011

Must condemn such attacks

I agree that after 9/11, the US has taken many secure steps and increasing security check up is one of them. Norway is a peaceful country where poeple can freely mnove around and keeping this in mind the recent attcks seems to have been planned. samsung tablet

 

COFFEPARTY

6:26 PM ET

August 7, 2011

It is not one or the other it is both!

Both right wing groups and Islamic groups are capable of terrorist attacks and need to be heavily monitored by security services. It is not one or the other they are both a threat. The whole debate over which group poses the most potential threat is to a large degree irrelevant.

In Europe we got over complacent re our right wing groups who many of thought were just too incompetent to be able to launch a big attack - Norway shows how much damage even a lone wolf can cause. That view has clearly now changed. We are facing the music for that mistake. Expect a lot more scrutiny of right wing groups from European intelligence services

Why are there so few successful major terrorist attacks in Europe and US . Good and well financed security services plus populations who do not support their aims.

 

CARRY DARDENNE

12:52 AM ET

August 16, 2011

Norway's Oklahoma City?

we should not mention that he’s Christian, because, after all, no religious group would ever condone violence of any kind.But it might be a good idea to start profiling all WoW players.Also, what exactly are “conservative right-wing extremist tendencies”? Either he’s a conservative, or he’s an extremist? Which is it?A tragedy and a nightmare in this country that is not at all used to violence remotely close to this, where weapons practically are banned and murders are a rarity. This slaughter is nothing but the work of a nut ball psychopath. Reviewing media, this has obviously been planned by the perp for a long time. The guy had even set up an organic farm to be able to get hold fertilizer to make the car bomb. Ammonium-nitrate is not sold freely and only for those with certified needs.

 

ALYCE CHAU

9:41 PM ET

August 16, 2011

Norway's Oklahoma City?

Ok, my first knee-jerk reaction: we should not mention that he’s Christian, because, after all, no religious group would ever condone violence of any kind.But it might be a good idea to start profiling all WoW players.Also, what exactly are “conservative right-wing extremist tendencies”? Either he’s a conservative, or he’s an extremist? Which is it?A tragedy and a nightmare in this country that is not at all used to violence remotely close to this, where weapons practically are banned and murders are a rarity. This slaughter is nothing but the work of a nut ball psychopath. Reviewing media, this has obviously been planned by the perp for a long time. The guy had even set up an organic farm to be able to get hold fertilizer to make the car bomb. Ammonium-nitrate is not sold freely and only for those with certified needs. Conservative right wing in this country mean neo-nazi.The more appropriate translation of AUF is the ‘Labour Party Youth Federation’, of the social-democratic Labour Party – the incumbents.

 

CHARLIE TULLIER

9:46 PM ET

August 16, 2011

Norway's Oklahoma City?

Ok, my first knee-jerk reaction: we should not mention that he’s Christian, because, after all, no religious group would ever condone violence of any kind.But it might be a good idea to start profiling all WoW players.Also, what exactly are “conservative right-wing extremist tendencies”? Either he’s a conservative, or he’s an extremist? Which is it?A tragedy and a nightmare in this country that is not at all used to violence remotely close to this, where weapons practically are banned and murders are a rarity. This slaughter is nothing but the work of a nut ball psychopath. Reviewing media, this has obviously been planned by the perp for a long time. The guy had even set up an organic farm to be able to get hold fertilizer to make the car bomb. Ammonium-nitrate is not sold freely and only for those with certified needs. Conservative right wing in this country meanjenna jameson
.The more appropriate translation of AUF is the ‘Labour Party Youth Federation’, of the social-democratic Labour Party – the incumbents.

 

AXELBROOK

2:27 PM ET

August 18, 2011

I think it's funny how Palin

I think it's funny how Palin still thinks it's worth something that she can see Russia. I lived in a small town larger than Wasilla and I bet half the county didn't know who any of the elected officials were because they don't do ANYTHING. code rio A city that small runs itself..

 

MEDA169

9:08 AM ET

August 20, 2011

Norway's Oklahoma City?

The real question is: Why are big terrorist attacks so rare? Only solution for Norway is to do what US did in 2001 - open the aid spigots to Pakistan and again attack Taliban bases in Afghanistan while totally ignoring Taliban/Al Qaeda‘s Pakistani roots. Nobody forced Pakistani government to facilitate relocation of Osama bin Laden from Sudan to Afghanistan in 1996. Democratic government of Pakistan chose to do so of its own free will. As Sandy Berger, Clin take a look here A Norwegian islamophobic terrorist murders young members of an liberal party. One might expect a discussion on growing intolerance towards religious minorities, how extremist views on Muslims can poison a young man's mind, the mainstreaming of far right politics and how those who tout such views bear some responsibility for the loss of innocent lives. Instead we get a list of all the attacks carri