The Future Issue New World Disorder The Next Gen Internet So long, Saudi Arabia

Micromultinationals Will Run the World

And cheap robots will help them do it.

BY HAL VARIAN | SEPT/OCT 2011

We live in an age of combinatorial innovation. There have been other such periods before: In the 19th century, standardized mechanical parts -- wheels, pulleys, belts, and gears -- were combined and recombined to create new innovations. In the 20th century, the components were internal combustion engines, electricity, electronics, and (eventually) microelectronic chips.

Today, a substantial amount of software development on the web involves connecting standardized components in novel ways. The Linux operating system, the Apache web server, the MySQL database, and the Python programming language are prominent examples: the LAMP components that serve as basic building blocks for much of the web. Once your application is developed, the cloud computing model offered by Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and others changes fixed costs for data centers into variable costs for data services, lowering barriers to entry and increasing the pace of innovation.

Just as the mechanical innovations of the 19th century led to dramatic changes in our way of life, the still-evolving computing and communication innovations of the early 21st century will have a profound impact on the world's economy and culture. For example, even the smallest company can now afford a communications and computational infrastructure that would have been the envy of a large corporation 15 years ago. If the late 20th century was the age of the multinational company, the early 21st will be the age of the micromultinational: small companies that operate globally.

Silicon Valley today seems to be overflowing with these enterprises. They can already draw on email, chat, social networks, wikis, voice-over-Internet protocol, and cloud computing -- all available for free on the web -- to provide their communications and computational infrastructure. They can exploit comparative advantage due to global variation in knowledge, skills, and wage rates. They can work around the world and around the clock to develop software, applications, and web services by using standardized components. Innovation has always been stimulated by international trade, and now trade in knowledge and skills can take place far more easily than ever before.

You have never heard of most micromultinationals and likely never will; like other small firms, most will go out of business or be acquired by larger organizations. But some, like Skype (from Estonia) or Rovio, the maker of the popular mobile-device game Angry Birds (from Finland), have become household names. Even the software components themselves are global creations: Linux started in Finland, Apache in the United States, MySQL in Sweden, and Python in the Netherlands.

The technological advances that have created this sea change in the virtual world are in the process of transforming the physical world in similar ways. Industrial robots have been around for decades, but they have always been big and expensive, so much so that only large companies could afford them. But advances in information technology have changed all that. It is now possible to make far cheaper robotic devices, which in turn means that physical services provided by robotics will get substantially cheaper.

Chris Windsor/Getty Images

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Hal Varian is chief economist at Google.

ZUFADHLI

12:34 AM ET

August 15, 2011

Nobody knows what the future will look like!

Wow... I always imagine how the future will look like.. But it seems that many new things that come out to this world is unimaginable... I think that one day, people will not use cell phone anymore.. Other things like watch, spectacles etc will takeover cell phone and people will use another things to communicate with each other... Well, it's only my thoughts..

 

DAVIDOV

11:56 PM ET

September 7, 2011

Agreed

I think technology change and new findings are so fast. We can connect ear a small devide can be replaced by phone and special machine directly connected eyes etc. I think Facebook is a big finding where billion people can connect each others. And so future is full of suprises.

 

URGELT

9:46 AM ET

August 15, 2011

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs... and Automation

I think the author missed a key part of what's trending in automation. Not to say his insights aren't valuable. They are. But.

To fit it all into a coherent picture of the future, we need to consider the impact of all of this automation on jobs.

The manufacturing sector has already been hit hard. Every year there are fewer jobs in key manufacturing companies, and not just in the US. Foxconn (Taiwan) is planning to replace over a million workers with robotics over the next couple of years; and they're late to the party. American manufacturers are far along and will carry the trend further.

Offshoring of jobs to countries where wages are cheaper has slowed this trend of automating jobs over the past decade, but only temporarily. As India, Indonesia and others build up their standards of living and begin to consume more products themselves, their costs of living will rise, and with them, the living wage will rise, too. By contrast, the cost of automating jobs is dropping rapidly as better, cheaper, easier-to-use programming tools are created and integrated into the programmer's tool box. The pace of automating manufacturing sector jobs is already picking up again.

And not just in manufacturing. Driverless vehicles are around the corner. Taxi drivers and truckers will find their jobs dwindling out of existence within the next decade. Aircraft will probably take longer to automate, but it's coming. Even physicians can expect their numbers to be pared by automation in coming years. Health care costs are too high, and too much of what they do is amenable to cookbook solutions. It's automatable.

Even programmers are not immune to this job-killing effect. Adobe's next big push is an HTML product that will let noncoders create fully functional web pages. Higher level languages means better productivity and fewer errors, and that will gradually translate into fewer jobs, too.

This is my vision for the future: increasingly, production of goods, services and even intellectual property will require fewer jobs. Corporations will own the means of production. Increasing numbers of humans will be left out of the productive economy to fend for themselves as best they can. The middle and upper-lower classes will shrink. Wealth will be further concentrated into fewer hands. As money is further concentrated, the economy will re-tool itself to meet the needs of those with money: luxury goods, services, and conveniences, churned out by ever-fewer workers and ever-more, ever-cleverer machines. The needs of those left out of the bounty, whose numbers will rise sharply, will be largely ignored, just as we largely ignore the needs of the homeless today. Only there will be many, many more of them.

None of this can happen without inspiring rage in growing numbers of people. It is, in fact, a recipe for violent revolution and the dissolution of social contracts which allow nations to exist.

We are approaching the end game in capitalism, I think; that's part of what the approaching "singularity" means to us - a moment in the near future beyond which we cannot imagine how humans will exist, what social structures will be invented, how people will survive and who among them will thrive. The old familiar structures will be uprooted by automation. It remains to be seen how we will cope with it.

 

JOSEQUIñONES

11:59 AM ET

August 15, 2011

Wow, that's a gloomy view on things

As ever-more clever machines take over jobs they can do, there will be ever more opportunity for clever people to capitalize on it.

I don't understand the line of thinking that says innovation is a bad thing. For example, on my street there is a huge Radisson hotel with a casino, a huge Marriot with a casino, a huge 4-store resort caled La Concha with a casino, and another 5-star that is about to open. These places are doing very well. They are generally full. They also have incredible fixed costs and must charge outrageous prices to keep going. Their rooms range from $350 on up per night, depending on the time of year. Which is fine. It works. However, they set the bar impossibly high for any but the most well-financed, deepest pocketed competitor, right? Right? Wrong. Turns out, I am competing with them very well.

I am a small property owner. My wife and I cannot compete with the big guys on my street. All we have is a small apartment in back of our house. But it is close to the same beach the hotels have, close to the same casinos, and close to the same fine restaurants. We don't have a swimming pool or lots of parking. So we innovated. I put up a nice website. I offered my room on innovative sites like Airbnb and others. And guess what? Our apartment is full every single night. There are lots of budget-conscious travellers who want to see the Caribbean but can't afford $350 per night in my neighborhood. So they come to me. I am already expanding to a second apartment, confident I will fill that one. And my third innovation will be to offer a campsite. That's right, a small campsite to camp in a tent in the middle of San Juan, Puerto Rico. That's something no 5-star hotel could afford to do because of their fixed costs and the way it would damage their image. But I can. And I will. And I'm sure it will be full as well. And future plans? How about personalized tours? What hotel can offer that?

See? The more specialized the economy becomes, the more big corporations run everything, the more opportunity there is for the little innovator. I'm just one example of many. So far, almost everyone who has stayed with us has said that they loved the home atmosphere, the chance to stay with "real people" instead of an impersonal hotel, and the special little amenities we offer.

 

FP_READER

1:16 PM ET

August 15, 2011

Not so fast.....

You forget about corruption in the system, and apparently you are not accounting for it.

In your scenario, as you expand and begin to compete to a noticeable degree, the casino/hotel begins to notice the competition. Well, they are sizeable campaign contributors and push for 'sanitation' regulations that you are unable to meet.

Even if you do squeek by somehow, well, the casino/hotel will no doubt be part of a larger cartel.....and accidents start to happen that never get investigated. The losses mount and you go out of business.

The last part you need to pay attention to is a government that is impartial. Even today, I would say that isn't the case.

 

JOSEQUIñONES

3:00 PM ET

August 15, 2011

Answer to FP_READER

What do you suggest I do then? Should I be afraid of things that "could" happen? That is a very silly way to run a life. If the hotels and their shadowy "cartels" you are convinced control them ever come against me, I'll worry about it then.

In the meantime, you should talk to a businessperson or two. I've never met one who was anything other than encouraging. The world is not a zero-plus game. There is room for big business and the little guy.

Your conspiracy theory mentality is mildly amusing, but silly.

 

WDSUNM

1:03 PM ET

August 16, 2011

missing the central point of future challenges

This is written from the point of view of naive technological optimism. The fundamental challenges in the next decades will be 1) the fact that we may NOT find a good substitute for oil; 2) the resulting climate change acceleration as we liquify fuels not already liquid so we can still get around; 3) general strain on planetary systems and resulting hardships. This kind of emphasis on gizmos and software seems rather beside the point given our failure to address fundamentals. Our entire civilization is based on exploiting unique, irreplaceable fossil sources of energy. Economists assume that because we replaced whale oil and guano with better substitutes, we will have a substitute for oil and coal. This is why economists should study some physics.

 

NEOPOLITICS

11:12 AM ET

August 18, 2011

LAMP's om Lights Out

I read the first two paragraphs and I have spotted a flaw / mistake / oversight or plain lack of knowledge.

The P in LAMP represents PHP and not Python so therefore although one could argue a minor oversight it clearly shows the a lack of basic and simple knowledge.

This carries on throughout the article , I love how in the depths of recession and America (the home of Silicon Valley ) failing to pay its bills the romantic capitalists still dream of technological utopia.

Any future developments for the mass market are based not only upon the industries flourishing but also the basic level consumer being able to afford these things. If one could simply predict the future by "what the mega rich have now , the minions will have in X years" the world would be a simpler place.

The whole basis of the latter argument is that trickle down works, it clearly does not. The in Capitalism the meek shall never inherit the earth, the bankers shall and they will be damned before they give anyone else a piece of the pie.

Add to this the ultra-arrogant view that American global hegemony will go unchecked forever it is quite easy to live in a bubble of "this is how it will always be". If anything the collapse of the global markets and the uprisings in the Middle East show the future is no longer a one way street of American dominance.

Then to this you add the quite comical argument "with great innovation comes great responsibility" , so we must all advance technologically but beware of the Terrorists.

Thousands of James Bondesque villains sat in the Tora Bora caves in Bin Laden suits stroking their miniature camels. Using the newly created robotic cars which act as Taxi's to run cheap fare rackets all across New York.

 

KEITH MCDONALD

5:18 PM ET

August 19, 2011

Multinationals already

Multinationals already dominate their fields. Hopefully the Micros can make up some ground on them. Smaller is better in business.

 

IRISHSILVER

8:28 AM ET

September 2, 2011

There is a charm and beauty

There is a charm and beauty to small businesses, as well as a flexibility and responsiveness that large corporations can never match. Large companies can always be outflanked by a more nimble, agile and smaller competitor. Christies and Sothebys are leading auction houses, but there are many smaller competitors snapping at their heels. Only in some industries, such as automobiles, which require massive upfront capital investment, do the big players rule the roost.

Large businesses do bring a great economy of scale, but i would be wary of ignoring the value that SMEs being to an economy. Josequinones comment above is a perfect example of this. Well done, Jose!

 

RIDGE

8:16 PM ET

September 6, 2011

ironic

It's ironic how the chief economist of google, itself a monopoly and strongly opposed to any competition, talks about micromultinationals

It's like Allianz talking about getting the best insurance from one of its competitiors

But then again...Google does know its stuff

 

WORLDAFFAIR

2:00 AM ET

September 8, 2011

food chain

Reading this article it almost seems like the explanantion of some food chain or some highly disciplined business society. There will always be micromultinationals who will sell their services (and in effect) rely on multinationals for the majority of their profit and survival. Just like thousands of small time importers who sell to larger firms, just like small town beauticians who sell acne treatments secrets to larger beauty firms and skin care companies...

Just like small time football agents inevitably end up working for the biggest football companies.

The only question is which of the micromultinationals are doing so at a fair rate instead of working like slave labour

 

JOEKING

4:04 AM ET

September 9, 2011

Travesty of Technology!

Micromultinationals like Python, Linux etc have made it possible for small entrepreneurs from the isolated pockets of the world not only to dream big but also to make it big. Automated devices and robots are just a tip of the iceberg called technology. Albeit, it’s true that terrorism has borrowed its faster and most effective means of destruction from the very same technology; it can also be said that, the same technology is being used like antiinflammatory foods to build safer means of combating this terrorism. Newer trends in innovation are bringing the world together by placing more emphasis on the developing nations from where these trends seem to be emerging.

 

LIAMREGLER

9:35 PM ET

September 11, 2011

How Will Business Adapt Over the Coming 15 yrs?

Undoubtedly we reside in probably the most exciting business times because the Industrial Revolution. The web has established an unstoppable tide that will sweep over the business community transforming the way in which we live and work forever.

For many people who've been focusing on creating services and products which allow this revolution it's clear and irrefutable however for many business people it's a minefield along with a duration of worry and concern. Most business people knows the terms 'Cloud Computing' many will often hear 'Social Media', 'Digital Age' as well as 'Digital marketing', but few traditional business people will yet know very well what they mean for their business. Being unsure of what these terms connect with and just how they may be applied will leave many vulnerable and behind within the race for competitiveness.