The Long War's Long Tail

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross's new book, Bin Laden's Legacy, wonders which side actually is winning the war on terror.

BY J.M. BERGER | AUGUST 30, 2011

What if someone came up with a terrific approach to surviving the war on terror and nobody listened? That is the dilemma at the heart of Bin Laden's Legacy: Why We're Still Losing the War on Terror, the new book from counterterrorism expert Daveed Gartenstein-Ross.

That's not to say the book won't be read or talked about. Bin Laden's Legacy is a remarkable and laudable work. Gartenstein-Ross has created both a road map and a score card for the 10 years since the 9/11 attacks redefined America's sense of security. In a narrative that somehow manages to be both concise and comprehensive, the author lays out the multiple battlefields and competing strategies of both al Qaeda and the United States.

The American approach, as Gartenstein-Ross describes in unrelenting detail, is defined by extravagance, putting its emphasis on security at all costs -- with cost being the operative word. Because of a combination of missteps, hypervigilance, and political fear, virtually any program, policy, or plan that offers a shred of reassurance to the American public can get funded in this environment, whether it's sci-fi technology for airports or an intelligence community so big that no one knows how many people it employs. This results in vast expenditures for security benefits that are sometimes marginal, sometimes nonexistent.

Al Qaeda's strategy, unhappily, is exactly the same: provoke the United States into profligate spending and interminable military engagements, with a vision of the country's eventual economic collapse. Inspired by Osama bin Laden's romanticized view of the Soviet Union's back-breaking war against the mujahideen in Afghanistan, the terrorist network has defined its strategy as bleeding the United States to bankruptcy. This strategy does not require traditional tactical success. In recent years, al Qaeda has learned that even its most embarrassing operational failures can produce an expensive response.

Gartenstein-Ross is not the first person to point out this conundrum, but his book is the first comprehensive look at the evidence for al Qaeda's success, cutting across security disciplines and niche interests to paint on a broad canvas, while still providing plenty of specific examples. One of the most memorable concerns the October 2010 cargo-bomb plot executed by al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Two bombs were cleverly disguised as printer cartridges and shipped to the United States via UPS and FedEx. Both were intercepted before they could be detonated.

Approximately 20 days after the bombing was averted, AQAP published an issue of its English-language propaganda magazine Inspire that trumpeted the attack with a banner headline reading "$4,200" -- how much it cost to mount the attack. Inside, the magazine explained that the plot was called "Operation Hemorrhage" because its goal was to cost Western countries "billions of dollars to inspect each and every package in the world or you do nothing and we keep trying again." This, the issue explained, is "the strategy of a thousand cuts. The aim is to bleed the enemy to death."

Although it's obvious that AQAP would have preferred a successful attack, the strategy laid out in Inspire had already been articulated by al Qaeda leaders -- most prominently bin Laden -- in repeated communiqués over the course of multiple years.

Although some will surely quibble about the fine print, the conclusions of Bin Laden's Legacy are impossible to ignore or dismiss. Gartenstein-Ross is apolitical, unsentimental, and unsparing in his analysis of America's missteps, which start and to some degree end with a failure to listen as al Qaeda's leaders cheerfully outlined their "bleed-to-bankruptcy" plan, crowing over specific examples of how it was working.

Bin Laden's Legacy concludes with a series of smart policy recommendations for reducing the amount of money that the United States spends while mitigating the effect of those reductions on actual security. These include using behavioral profiling rather than exorbitant technologies for airport security, avoiding expensive overseas adventures, reducing U.S. dependence on foreign oil, and building resilience among Americans to face future attacks without overreacting. Most importantly, Gartenstein-Ross argues, is depoliticizing terrorism so that Republicans and Democrats are not locked into a race to see who can spend the most money as proof of their "seriousness" about terrorism.

Ulet Ifansasti/Getty Images

 

J.M. Berger is editor of Intelwire.com and author of Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam. Full disclosure: Daveed Gartenstein-Ross has written a review of Berger's book, Jihad Joe, to be published in September. Berger has not read it and did not make a copy of this review available to Gartenstein-Ross prior to publication.

DAVEMCLANE

9:04 PM ET

August 30, 2011

Nothing new here

This is not something new. It's spelled out on Al Jazeera which references the November, 2004 video where he not only lays out the Bleed Them Strategy, but gives reasonable reasons why they need to be bled, namely how the United States is putting it's muddy boots on sacred land in Saudi Arabia.

"Why American Won't leave Afghanistan." Money Quote: "Surge, bribe and run? Or surge, bribe and stay? How US military bases and the energy war play out in Afghanistan."
http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/07/2011711121720939655.html

Here are others along the same lines:
"Some people are calling the follow up to 9/11 in Afghanistan is an updated version of The Great Game which began in 1807, just after the founding of the United States (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Game and http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/19/world/asia/19bases.html).

"We spoke of 9/11 as though it were somehow equivalent to Pearl Harbor, the beginning of a global war against enemies bent on, and at least theoretically capable of, destroying the American way of life (unlike al Qaeda, a ragtag band of extremists with limited punch). We spoke of cultural wars and a divided world. We reorganized our entire security establishment to go after a few thousand bad guys. We went mad."
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/29/the_black_hole_of_911

 

CLIVE HAMMOND

7:37 PM ET

September 14, 2011

I think this article makes a

I think this article makes a good point however. I would love to see an estimated ratio of costs expended per action of al Qaeda to the costs expended by the US in reaction. I'm sure most would be extremely lopsided to the degree of 1 to 1000 or perhaps more. it should be impossible for such a relatively small organization to even consider a proposition where they can "bleed america dry" but simply based on that criteria they have done a very good job. They have basically discovered how to "monetize" fear to their opponent's detriment.

 

MARTY MARTEL

3:54 AM ET

August 31, 2011

Book is missing forest for the trees

Gartenstein-Ross’s book on Bin Laden’s legacy misses forest for the woods since it mises the basic point of how did Bin Laden came to be able to wage this LONG WAR.

Let us examine some facts:

1. Nobody forced Pakistani government to facilitate relocation of Osama bin Laden from Sudan to Afghanistan in 1996. Benazir Bhutto’s democratic government of Pakistan chose to do so of its own free will.

2. As Sandy Berger, Clinton’s national security advisor told 9/11 Commission in 2004, Pakistani Army was the midwife of Taliban. UN report on Bhutto killing released on 4/15/10 confirmed this fact when it noted that "The PAKISTANI MILITARY ORGANIZED AND SUPPORTED THE TALIBAN TO TAKE CONTROL OF AFGHANISTAN IN 1996“. So in a way, Pakistani government was in charge of Afghanistan when 9/11 attacks were carried out and hence Pakistani government was responsible for those attacks.

3. Declassified DIA Washington D.C., "IIR (intelligence Information Report) Pakistan Involvement in Afghanistan," dated November 7, 1996 states how "Pakistan's ISI is heavily involved in Afghanistan," and also details different roles various ISI officers play in Afghanistan. Stating that Pakistan uses sizable numbers of its Pashtun-based Frontier Corps in Taliban-run operations in Afghanistan, the document clarifies that, "these Frontier Corps elements are utilized in command and control; training; and when necessary combat“.

4. Declassified U.S. Department of State, Cable "Pakistan Support for Taliban" from Islamabad dated Sept. 26, 2000 states that "while Pakistani support for the Taliban has been long-standing, the magnitude of recent support is unprecedented." In response Washington orders the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad to immediately confront Pakistani officials on the issue and to advise Islamabad that the U.S. has "seen reports that Pakistan is providing the Taliban with materiel, fuel, funding, technical assistance and military advisors. [The Department] also understand[s] that large numbers of Pakistani nationals have recently moved into Afghanistan to fight for the Taliban, apparently with the tacit acquiescence of the Pakistani government." Additional reports indicate that direct Pakistani involvement in Taliban military operations has increased.

5. Pakistani ISI Director General Mahmud Ahmad had asked Omar Sheikh (the kidnapper of Daniel Pearl) to send $100,000 from a Dubai bank account to Mohammed Atta (the lead 9/11 hijacker) one year before those attacks. Mohammad Atta used that $100,000 for flight training, living expenses and to purchase flight tickets on the day of 9/11 attacks in US and returned unspent $25,000 back to same Dubai account. Musharraf was forced to retire ISI director General Mahmud Ahmad after Wall Street Journal exposed General Ahmad as the chief financier of 9/11 attacks. Pakistani ISI was heavily involved in planning of 9/11 attacks as corroborated by former Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Bob Graham.

As General McChrystal so clearly noted in his August, 2009 assessment to the President, Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan is mostly directed from Pakistan-based Afghan Taliban leaders. Following is General’s verbatim assessment for the doubters:

1. Most insurgent fighters in Afghanistan are directed by a small number of Afghan senior leaders based in Pakistan that work through an alternative political infrastructure in Afghanistan.
2. The Quetta Shura Taliban (QST) based in Quetta, the provincial capital of Baluchistan, is the No. 1 threat to US/NATO mission in Afghanistan. At the operational level, the Quetta Shura conducts a formal campaign review each winter, after which Mullah Mohammed Omar (Afghan Taliban Chief) announces his guidance and intent for the coming year.
3. Afghanistan's insurgency is clearly supported from Pakistan. Senior leaders of the major Afghan insurgent groups (QST, HQN and HiG) are based in Pakistan, are linked with al Qaeda and other violent extremist groups, and are reportedly aided by some elements of Pakistan's lSI. Al Qaeda and associated movements (AQAM) based in Pakistan channel foreign fighters, suicide bombers, and technical assistance into Afghanistan, and offer ideological motivation, training, and financial support.

Previous US ambassador Anne Patterson to Pakistan, wrote in a secret review in 2009 that ‘Pakistan's Army and ISI are covertly sponsoring four militant groups - Haqqani‘s HQN, Mullah Omar‘s QST, Al Qaeda and LeT - and will not abandon them for any amount of US money‘, as diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks show.

Ambassador Patterson had NO reason to mislead her own State Department and U. S. government.

Following are verbatim quotes from what Gen (rtd) Jack Keane said at a discussion on Afghanistan organized by the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think-tank on June 30, 2011:

1. "The truth is, the ISI aids and abets the sanctuaries in Pakistan that the Afghan (Taliban) operate out of. They (ISI) provide training for them, they provide resources for them and they provide intelligence for them. From those sanctuaries, every single day Afghan fighters come into Afghanistan and kill and maim us".

2. "There's a direct relationship of ISI's complicity and the deaths of American soldiers and the catastrophic wounding of those soldiers. The chief of staff of the Pakistani military is complicit. He used to be the director of ISI. He put the guy in there who is in charge now and he has full knowledge of what I'm just describing".

3. "This partnership has got to be based on that harsh reality. There are two ammonium nitrate factories in Pakistan. 80 per cent of the explosive devices that are used to kill our soldiers, kill Afghan security forces and kill Afghan people come from Pakistan."

4. "All of what I just said to you, when we confront them with this, they lie to us“.

The Pakistani parliament’s joint session convened on 5/13/11 after Osama’s killing and ended after adopting a unanimous resolution condemning the American raid on the Abbottabad compound in which al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden was killed.

Pakistani parliamentarians did not appear to be bothered about Osama living in Abbottabad for the past five years and in other parts of the country since 9/11.

9/11 attacks was Pakistan’s revenge for U. S. refusing to deliver F-16 fighter jets after Pakistan had already paid for them in early 1990s. That is why one of the demands of the kidnappers of journalist Daniel Pearl was to U. S. to deliver F-16s to Pakistan for the release of Daniel Pearl.

But U. S. has deliberately ignored Pakistani government’s terrorist connections all these years and hence deserves to be duped by Pakistan for billions of dollars.

 

KASEMAN

11:39 AM ET

August 31, 2011

Get your facts right

There is no Pakistan nation in the American context..Its a collection of basically 5 nations, not tribes, totalling 160 million, dominated by the 90 million Punjabis and misruled by a Punjabi (85%) army.. Encased within two boundaries drawn by just 2 Brits. Hence all the problems. Neighbors fight neighbors. Read European history, especially 1913-47. Bunch of fragile states Civilized white Christians to boot!

Taleban is all Pushtoon ..45 milion of them who do not recognize the Britis imposed border. 30 million are east of this faux border. The Punjabi army has no influence in Pushtoon lands; its the opposite. They have never been conquered; on the contray they have always been the conquerors, most recently as the army of the Babar, the Moghul conqueror of India.

The Talebs' want to throw the hated American out of their country. Number less than 25,000 but supported by many for patriotic reasons. And as Gerstenstein- Ross implies, they are winning, thanks to the unbelievable incompetence and outright stupidity of the US brass. On that read Rory Stewart's recent book

The bloated Pentagon bureaucrats (faux warriors) still think that the USSR is around and a treat to the US. Hence wrong people, wrong toys, wrong training. Aided and abetted by Congress, the military-industrial-security complex. All together soley interested in just one objective:plundering ..plundering the Treasury..our US Treasury.

The Pentagon is planning to withdraw. But not like curs with their with tails between their legs. As The Economist characterized the Brits exit from Iraq. .

 

GRANT

1:15 PM ET

August 31, 2011

Completely missing the point

I think this is missing one important fact*. Al Qaeda's ultimate goal is not to ruin the United States. That would be nice but it isn't what Al Qaeda exists for. Al Qaeda exists to attempt to reestablish an Islamic (Sunni of course) Caliphate and I would say that not only have they not succeeded, they are actually much further from success than they have ever been. Let's look at a list of nations either important to Al Qaeda, geopolitically important or that have similar groups.

The effort set up in Afghanistan was a horrible failure which actually managed to make the country even worse than it already was. Indeed, if it wasn't for the support of the Pakistani intelligence they probably would have crashed.

Areas of the Pakistani government might support the Taliban but they certainly aren't interested in setting up an Islamic government and they see Afghanistan as a nation that should be greatly influenced by Pakistan, not the other way around.

Iraq wasn't just a failure, it was such a great failure that the nationalist Sunni groups they were working with actually turned against them. Additionally the ultimate outcome was to strengthen Iran (a Shia state) in the Persian Gulf.

Egypt not only has constantly rejected Al Qaeda's calls for revolt, but the recent revolution involved secular groups and peaceful tactics. Additionally the most powerful Muslim group in Egypt (the Muslim Brotherhood) calls for peaceful change through democracy, something Al Qaeda considers anathema (indeed they have openly criticized the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood).

In Palestine even Hamas has shown itself willing to have temporary ceasefires with Israel, something Al Qaeda would never consider. Besides that none of the Palestinian groups are considering anything other than nationalist resistance to Israel and certainly not international attacks.

In Turkey a Muslim party came to power through peaceful democratic efforts and have successfully curbed the power of a coup-prone military without resorting to violence. Not only that, but Turkey is something of a star to the Muslim world for its stability and success. Again, this is unacceptable to Al Qaeda.

Libya's Qaddafi regime was forced out not by extremist Muslim groups but by a widespread rebellion supported by Western air power. Not the most resounding support for Al Qaeda's tactics.

In Nigeria the most dangerous extremist group (Boko Haram) might have some views that coincide with Al Qaeda but they are a local group dedicated to resisting the Nigerian south and not to establishing any kind of Caliphate.

In Somalia Al Shabab has been widely blamed for making the famine even worse and they have been forced to leave Mogadishu. The federal government might not be very impressive but it seems clear that the people aren't happy with Al Shabab.

In Indonesia there is a terrorist group with links to Al Qaeda, but it is hardly popular and has become rather weak in recent years. Ironically it might have made the U.S and Indonesia closer.

All in all I'd say that Al Qaeda's efforts have resulted in general failure across the Muslim world. It's been years since they have launched an international attack of note and are increasingly relying on other groups who don't have the same goals and individuals who don't necessarily have the necessary skills. The U.S might have suffered from the past decade but that's not even close to equaling success for Al Qaeda.

 

SREEKANTH

2:49 PM ET

August 31, 2011

Completely agree with Grant's

Completely agree with Grant's analysis. The costs to the US have been high, as we know everytime we take off our shoes in the airport checkin lines. But AQ has been defeated at a strategic level.

Apart from the facts on the ground that Grant mentioned, the other fact is that AQ was completely irrelevant in the whole Arab spring phenomenon. History is basically passing them by, and they've become yesterday's story. But there are still occasional brush-fires and trailing edge fights that need to be won.

I have a lot of respect for Daveed GR as an analyst, and the points he makes are valid. If the American public was completely rational, we could have achieved our victory at a lower cost. But the comforting thought is that AQ's target audience, the Muslim public, is not completely rational either. It must be hard for AQ to sell them on the story that indeed we're winning even though it doesn't look that way, even though our #1 has been shot in the head and dumped in the ocean, but you can tell we're winning because we're creating a 1 or 2 % tax on the US economy ...

 

GRANT

5:02 PM ET

August 31, 2011

Thanks, but I do have to make

Thanks, but I do have to make one clarification. The U.S did not destroy the Al Qaeda brand. The greatest success of the U.S was to kill and capture so many Al Qaeda leaders. Obviously Al Qaeda as an organization still exists but in terms of operational capability they don't seem at all as capable as they were five years ago. I don't want to dismiss the obvious success the U.S has had in destroying Al Qaeda's abilities* but we also should recognize the clear rejection of Al Qaeda's ideology throughout the Muslim world. I'm of the opinion that Al Qaeda is facing the same fate as far-left groups did from the 1950s through 1980s. The ones that fought under a nationalist theme of opposing foreign domination tended to enjoy far more success than the ones that were completely unable to find support at home and focused on international acts that didn't obtain any results**.

* Which is how most terrorist groups end up, destroyed by vigilant police action and special ops resulting in their best leaders dead or in prison.
**Yes, I am fully aware that Palestine became an international issue after the Olympic hostage debacle, but groups that are unable to realize that their people don't want them and make excuses about 'far enemies' will rarely see any kind of triumph.

 

VISIONTUNNEL

10:43 PM ET

September 4, 2011

It will be nice if Islamist do not hijack Arab Spring

The much awaited goals of Democracy and Secularism are tormentingly slow and tedious. That too in a region so long been under suppressive regimes with or with out Islamist agenda. Those who suffered deep wounds are impatient lot with scores to settle with their tormentors.

It is yet to be seen how strong the supporters of democracy and secularism are in a region teeming with tribal rivalries and acute antagonism.

Absence of democratic-secular ethos, mechanism, spirit of peaceful negotiation and give and take make the process uncertain.

Any mistake and resulting peoples anger can be exploited by highly organized Islamist who offer very simple solutions of basic problems.

 

ROCKING

6:12 PM ET

September 6, 2011

Dream on

Dream on they are very successful see all the security measures at airfields the technological equipment for a fake security. The terrorist are running on the tarmac packing your suitcases in the plains. Journalist in NL had no problems to place a backpack in the cargo hold of a plain.
Disguise as luggage handler he had a fake ID and no body questioned him or look in his backpack .
Last year passengers complained about missing items in there suitcases authoreties put survialance cameras up and more the 20 people where identified stealing from suitcases electronics and designer close even tried it on if it fit. They have to leave that place with these goods no problem apparently BUT IS IT SAFETY You go to a body scanner while the terrorist can walk around underneath your airplane ???
Plenty Muslims working on the airfields as cleaners and Baggage handlers in fact the most there are Muslims place a backpack in the plane is as it is proofed no problem get a terrorist on the plane with a Mobil phone and he can blow the dammed thing up any time he want. Security is only possible when deporting every single Muslim back to there home country and our domistic Muslims must be prefented from getting these jobs Do you see it happen?? I don't we will never be willing to do that . So we have to keep spending billions,on fake security so yes they bleed our economy to the brink of collapse face it. They are successful,bleeding us to oblivion, we have let us blackmail in to immigration issue from these country's in 1972 the treaty you can find on internet open your borders to Islamic immigrants, we had a far more essential commodities then oil. All we had to do was stop all export of food Medicines and technology. I am sure we would have seen this oil embargo disappear as snow for the sun. But no we are human and political correct,we can not let people suffer hunger, or the sick there medicine, so better let us self blackmail. So dream on we have lost. It all started in 1972

 

VISIONTUNNEL

6:42 AM ET

September 1, 2011

Al Qaeda, Marxists and Cocaine Cowboys

The often talked about Moderate Muslim is so far invisible against the fanatic cacophony and covert war efforts channeled through various Mosques the world over. The Saudi funded fanatic strain of Islam has long over showed the concerns of silent Muslim majority. There is no Muslim religious, political or social figure to counter Jihad of Osama Bin Laden. Many observers now opine that the concept of Moderate Muslim is a myth created to mask and obfuscate the sinister realities of only the blood thirsty hotheads calling the shot in the Muslim world.

This most disheartening aspect of the developments between fanatic strain of Islam and other sworn enemy of the democracy and individual freedom has not been given the due attention. Over the course of the last decade, largely as a consequence of the Western intervention in Afghanistan and Iraq, there has been the emergence of a grotesque alliance between militant Islamist, part of the Marxists and drug merchants. The devout followers of political Islam and excitable disciples of Marx have joined together to attack and destroy the common enemy. This covert process has gone furthest in some of the most culturally diverse regions of Britain.

The Taiba mosque in Hamburg had played a defining role as the recruitment and indoctrination center for 9/11 attackers. A friend of Mohammad Atta, who attended the same mosque, has emerged behind the series of events culminating in grave fears of multiple terror strike across Europe; a dreadful replica of Mumbai like bloodbath scenario .The mosque has since been closed down. About three hundred youth from Europe, believed to have attended terror camps in lawless region of Pakistan-Afghanistan border, and third of them have returned, perhaps giving final touches to various strikes, when least expected. The possibility of several sleeper cells, independent and unconnected to each others, must be a greater source of worry. Another important issue is failure or most probably active compliance of the Mosque authorities towards such activities after 9/11.
Increasing radicalism due to sustained indoctrination, inherent failure of integration, due to built in obscurantism and ghettoizing is the main reason for some descendants of European Muslims taking up jihad against the West. The sustained efforts by radicals set process in motion, which is now entering a defining and more sinister phase.

These youth are believed to very dangerous and fanatically committed -- and can enter the United States without a visa. Sleeper cell networks covers Europe from Portugal to Poland, from smoke filled coffeehouses in Rotterdam, side walks in Copenhagen, prayer halls in Hamburg and Brussels, bustling markets, shops in Birmingham and London and even the prisons in Europe. Al Qaeda being short of resources the new recruits make own funds to further their contribution to jihad. Educated young men from Middle class and rich families are targeted, recruited and indoctrinated in a slow and tedious process to fill the gaps created by exposures and arrests continuously. It’s an ongoing process with needed resources being self generated by these highly motivated sleeper cells.

Since 1970’s,the fanatically strict code of Islamic law interpreted, debated and taught at Cairo's Al-Azhar University has slowly spread amongst the Muslims, the world over. It runs counter to very concept of pluralism, democracy, secularism, individual freedom and separation of religion from the statecraft. The initial role played by Hassan al-Banna's of Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Syed Abul Ala Maududi's Jamaat Islami in Pakistan, laid the foundation stone of what Osama Bin Laden is fighting for.

Both these Islamic thinkers sought to restore the Islamic ideal of the union of religion and state. They were sure that the decadent western idea of the separation of religion and politics for the decline of Muslim societies.

During 1950s Sayed Qutb, a member of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, took the arguments of Al-Banna and Maududi a stage further and declared that all non-Muslims were infidels and predicted an eventual clash between Islam and the west. They began advocating a return to the original ways of Islam, among other things; a repudiation of the West; no education of women; abolition of television and expulsion of non-Muslims from Muslim lands.

The ideals of al-Banna, Qutb and Maududi eventuall become the main sources of inspiration and reference for the fighters joining the Afghan mujahideen. Al Azhar scholar, Abdullah Azzam, fought with the PLO in the 1970s but felt disillusioned with the Palestinian leadership, mainly because of their secular outlook. He went on to teach in Saudi Arabia and joined as lecturer at King Abdul Aziz University in Jeddah, where one of his students was Osama Bin Laden.

 

GRANT

4:37 PM ET

September 1, 2011

Really? And the fact that

Really? And the fact that protesters in Egypt, Tunisia, Bahrain and Syria stayed peaceful and didn't use Islamist revolutionary arguments means nothing? Or the fact that Al Qaeda had effectively no impact or influence on the revolutions? Interesting how vast protests across northern Africa and the Middle East involving millions of people can be so easily brushed aside by saying 'Al Qaeda is the only part of the Muslim world involved in politics'.

 

VISIONTUNNEL

9:55 PM ET

September 4, 2011

Islamist s have made their presence felt

We wish it was that way towards a peaceful, democratic-secular Middle East. Which can make make a fundamental difference to the world.

During last week of July, 2011, For the first time Islamist groups have dominated a rally in Cairo, forcing some liberal groups to pack up and leave.

Many hardliners who were seeing the earlier seemingly pro-democracy-secular demonstrations with distaste are now coming out of shadows and pushing for Egyptians to install an Islamic government, even Sharia law.
That has caused much horror of secularists and the large Christian minority, not only in Egypt but elsewhere in Middle East too.

It is yet to be seen how strong the pro-democracy-secularist groups are and how long they can sustain and promote long and slow path to democratic ethos and practices. The absence of peaceful-give and take negotiation along with tribal rivalry, antagonisms and impatience might lead to the well entrenched Islamist gradually take over and go their way of Sharia laws.

 

JAYDEE001

3:15 PM ET

September 1, 2011

Simple truth - yet all but ignored in our strategic effort

A brilliant comment: "Inspired by Osama bin Laden's romanticized view of the Soviet Union's back-breaking war against the mujahideen in Afghanistan, the terrorist network has defined its strategy as bleeding the United States to bankruptcy. This strategy does not require traditional tactical success. In recent years, al Qaeda has learned that even its most embarrassing operational failures can produce an expensive response."

Bin Laden's strategy from the beginning was to bleed the US dry in an AfPak conflict we could not hope to win. Then, we gave him Iraq as a gift and got rid of Saddam Hussein, a man who bin Laden detested. Now, even after his death, we keep stepping into traps he might only have wished he could have set -Yemen, Somalia, Libya. We are mired in a futile and costly effort in Iraq, still trying after ten years to prop up a corrupt and unreliable Afghanistan leadership, still kissing the behinds of a Pakistani government that has lied and disrespected us at every turn.

Bin Laden's legacy will be the diminished footprint of the US on the world stage. We will be a musclebound militarized security state that sacrified our moral standing in the world and our economic strength on the altar of national defense, but we will be unable to stamp out the small brushfires that may be set by those who wish us ill. But, bin Laden did not do it alone. He had a lot of help from our clueless leaders, who were dumb enough to take his bait at every opportunity.

 

KUNINO

5:01 PM ET

September 1, 2011

The 97-year -- and counting -- war

Whether or not the book under review misses or refers to the evident idea that the current war on terror is a natural flare-up of World War I -- when the victorious British and French carved up parts of the former Ottoman empire to create today's battlefields -- this evidently is not an idea that has stirred J M Berger much.

There's no conundrum about the reality that the US since 2001 has done almost exactly what al Qaeda wanted to achieve with 9/11. Current understandings in Washington seem extraordinarily helpful to the dreams and hopes of the late Mr bin Laden. America's going broke? Must be president Obama's fault. Clinging to that crackpot belief smothers any opportunity to ponder just how much blood and gold should be spent in response to the 9/11 provocation -- and any others.

It also smothers any consideration of the correct balance between police and military responses to 9/11. Instead of a coherent international police response, the world sees, as Berger picks up from the book under review, some sort of fabulous security empire in the US that employs an unknown number of public servants and, we get reminders from time to time, doesn't seem to offer world's-best security practice. Vide the panytbomber attack, surely the ideal opportunity for the new and fabulously expensive US security to strut its stuff.

Instead, even though they knew a likely terrorist was aboard that flight, Customs allowed his plane to overfly several population centers and land in Detroit, ready to pounce after the plane landed and the passengers had debarked. As evident a case of Customs vanity or simple incompetence as we could ever expect to see. US security didn't beat that attack. It failed because the pantybomber either couldn't get his undies to explode, or else was too cowardly to trigger it. It is of course a gross and

Harkingt back to how the victorious French and British set up the current map of the middle east, and how well that worked out, take note of what seems the evident reality that (a) the US intervention to Iraq does not seem to haver brough peace to that nation (rather, it took it away); and (b) the US seems to have little or no idea how to get effective and honest government established in Afghanistan.

European reports suggest the US military wants to stay in Afghanistan until 2024, and it is known that Washington is trying hard to get Baghdad to permit lots of US troops to stay there past the present agreed departure date. The expense of both continuing military arrangements, for a nation apparently losing money hand over fist, would be fabulous.

And it seems a naked indictment of the famed and often boasted-about nation of laws that now nearly two years have passed since Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab allegedly boarded a plane with intent to kill everybody on it -- a clear criminal offense -- and the authorities still don't seem able to offer a trial date. Security trumps legal process, doubtless at great expense.

Somewhere, bin Laden smiles.

 

DR. SARDONICUS

7:53 PM ET

September 1, 2011

Can’t see the Brontosaurus for its long tail and neck.

Your basic premise seems to be that America’s profligacy is based on a push-me, pull-you combination of homespun politicians throwing money at problems they are afraid of failing to resolve, and super-enemies intent of bankrupting us. How very neat and tidy.

You fail to note the American Congressional-military-industrial complex in between, whose money grubbing goal has always been to magnify the fears and mercenary qualities of the former; and never, ever find a cure for the latter, but just scarier substitutes.

First it was the Soviets. Than the NKoreans, the Iranians and sundry small fry of no consequence to American security. Then it was Saddam Hussein and his invisible WMDs. Now, it’s the World Caliphate of Islam run amuck. The face of our fantasy boogeyman may change over time, but never the very real Congressional-military-industrial horror story you so elaborately ignore.

Might I suggest you live hip-deep in a mighty Egyptian river?

 

DAVEMCLANE

9:23 PM ET

September 1, 2011

American Congressional-military-industrial-mainstream-media

I think it's time to add one more to the complex: American Congressional-military-industrial-mainstream-media.

Just think of how much money is going to be thrown at the main-stream-media for the next election of whoever-it-doesn't matter which will continue fanning the current fears or find new ones.

 

JOHN DAVID SPENCER

2:00 AM ET

September 2, 2011

To Disagree Is A Right

Well, I want to disagree about this notion of economic profligacy. I believe America has done quite well in the north african agenda, and it seems carefully thought out and well executed.

Now, if I could just say the same about the Gartenstein-Ross's text, because while the theory may sound good, it is practical implementation that will drive the future of this world, and I, like anyone, like a good discordant voice among the converted...but still, I wonder if Gartenstein-Ross's ideas are like taking a paleontology class to understand why Europe still has such a dependence on north african oil.

But wait...holy jeepers, this note just passed to me about nanofossils is putting it all together for me. Yes, indeed! Maybe Gartenstein-Ross is a voice worth listening to!

 

CRIACAOSITES

1:45 PM ET

September 2, 2011

bin lade say good bye

I think that with death of Osama the problems with Al Qaeda don't stop, is necessary strong the relashiochip with islan countries for garantee that USA don't have a new 11th Setembers episodes. leilão online | leilão online

 

CRIACAOSITES

1:46 PM ET

September 2, 2011

bin lade say good bye

I think that with death of Osama the problems with Al Qaeda don't stop, is necessary strong the relashiochip with islan countries for garantee that USA don't have a new 11th Setembers episodes. leilão online | criação de lojas virtuais

 

LALACURACHAXX

9:42 PM ET

September 22, 2011

finally an end

well it's really high time to say goodbye to everything that has happened to that country. We really are glad that the people are now free and for the first time, has total control over their lives. I do agree with what you just said above and i know that it will soon be over for their leader. the sims social bot He really doesn't deserve his post and he should have been removed from it forcefully months ago. there are a few things in your post the sims social hack that I can't really agree too you know but most of it hits right on the jackpot. Some of the comments above are very impressive. I wonder how they were able to think about those comments. the sims social cheats Thank you for sharing your thoughts on this matter though. I do hope I could read more of your comments in the future.

 

LIZAHAMONXX

4:14 AM ET

September 26, 2011

curious

i do agree with what you said there but does it really matter? What matters is that you got the right opinion there and it's way better than the others. pacquiao vs marquez live streaming pacquiao vs marquez online My friends all feel that same as you and I really don't get it. Why? Why now? Could you please explain a bit further? buy pacquiao vs marquez tickets online pacquiao vs marquez 3 tickets for sale

 

JOHNPETE

1:06 AM ET

September 4, 2011

Bin Laden Taleb

The Talebs' want to throw the hated American out of their country. Number less than 25,000 but supported by many for patriotic reasons. And as Gerstenstein- Ross implies, they are winning, thanks to the unbelievable incompetence and outright stupidity of the US brass. On that read Rory Stewart's recent book.

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KEITH MCDONALD

4:09 PM ET

September 10, 2011

It sounds like a sound idea,

It sounds like a sound idea, even an effective a href="http://www.canadian-online-prescription-guide.com/">prescription. But agreed, how to convince America to take it? That will not be easy or simple as long as popular sentiment reigns.

 

LOE

10:17 AM ET

September 13, 2011

Bleed no more!

Gartenstein –Ross has indeed initiated an in-depth enquiry into the much-mulled over debate of bleed-to-bankruptcy. Now that the America’s credit rating has gone down, it should start thinking rationally and focus its resources on saving the tumbling economy rather than interfering with the political turmoil of the other nations. Political parties should realize that the media hype and unnecessary security fears of the U.S people are costing the economy a fortune. They should refrain from acting irresponsibly and think of a means of spending less on surveillance and defense; simultaneously taking care like wobenzym n and not to compromise the security of its people.

 

TAYFA34

5:29 AM ET

September 26, 2011

Usame Bin Lad?n He is like Islam

And Palestinian land will shrink, suicide bombers will respond, rockets will be launched and Israelis killed. Now Hezbollah and Sunnis have started up again in Lebanon. And Iran is powering up its nuclear capacity. Israel may feel impelled to react at some point if it calculates either Lebanon or Iran needs to be nipped in the bud. Add Syria to the toxic mix in Lebanon; and if things boil over there then Palestine will be left to sit and stew on the perennial international back burner. Hope, at this point, is not even a diamond in the rough. porno porno porno porno web tasarım