The Calm Before the Storm

Cyberwar is already happening -- and it's about to get much, much worse. A veteran intelligence official explains how America can prepare itself.

BY JOEL BRENNER | SEPTEMBER 6, 2011

As the Stuxnet affair demonstrated, remotely engineered disruption of industrial control systems is now a reality. That episode involved the successful electronic attack on the centrifuges in the Iranian nuclear program. Only a first-class intelligence agency could have pulled that off, but the blueprint for doing it -- the code itself -- is now public. Many American industrial control systems run on the same kind of equipment the Iranians were using, but unlike the controls on the Iranian centrifuges, the controls on the U.S. grid are now being connected to the Internet, making them easier to disrupt. Stuxnet was a watershed; there will be copycats.

Other industrial control systems will also be targets. Some already are. Air traffic control, railroad switches, and water and sewage systems are all electronically controlled now, and many are vulnerable. If an intruder can break into the right server electronically, he can remotely shut down production, send your goods to the wrong destination, and even unlock your doors -- and delete your log entries so he leaves no record of ever having been there.

The United States does not lack enemies who would attack it this way. Seized al Qaeda computers contain details of U.S. industrial control systems. In 2003, a group affiliated with the Pakistani terrorist organization Lashkar-e-Taiba -- the same gang that engineered the 2008 terrorist assaults in Mumbai -- plotted to attack the Australian grid. Other groups conspired to attack the British grid in 2004, 2006, and 2009. Yet the owners and operators of the North American grid continue willy-nilly to expose their control systems to the Internet instead of isolating and hardening it. This is folly of a high order.

Important conclusions for public and corporate policy follow from this vulnerable state of affairs. First, cyber insecurity has operational consequences. In the current and foreseeable states of technology, a high degree of assurance against electronic penetration of anything connected to the Internet is not achievable. Large, efficient, electronically connected organizations and nations are therefore vulnerable to remotely engineered disruption as well as information theft.

Second, this risk cannot be eliminated -- but it can be reduced and managed. As a nation, the United States should start by isolating the grid's controls from the Internet. Undoubtedly, there are marginal efficiencies to be gained by seamless connectivity over a publicly accessible infrastructure, but these gains are usually exaggerated and the risk this connectivity creates is staggering. The government and the major telecommunications carriers must also make the investment required to re-create the massive redundancies that made the wired telephone network so robust. Resilience and swift recovery should be the goal. If the consequences of cyberattacks were reduced, penetration would cease to matter.

Third, companies that wait for the government to "solve" their own security problems do so at their peril. The government is broke and the IT backbone is 85 percent private, so the government doesn't control it. The government's role in altering the status quo will be limited to setting standards, using its purchasing power to move vendors toward better security, and getting its own house in order. The government can neither secure corporate intellectual property nor protect firms against operational disruption.

Fourth, in a world in which everything cannot be protected, companies must determine for themselves what intellectual property and physical assets to isolate and safeguard. Those that approach this task seriously will quickly learn that technology is only one aspect of their insecurity and, in many cases, the easiest to deal with. Unless technology is integrated with personnel practices and operational security, it opens vulnerabilities that its users rarely understand. This kind of integration requires the automated enforcement of reasonable security policies and systematic workforce training; and that occurs only when management, the lawyers, and the technologists work closely together. This is an old-fashioned management challenge -- not a technological one. For their part, corporate boards need to take IT security seriously and launch audits that examine how their systems are actually implemented and used, not merely how they are designed. Because as the techies like to put it, the weakest link in any system is not the silicon-based unit on the desk; it's the carbon-based unit in the chair.

Win McNamee/Getty Images

 SUBJECTS:
 

Joel Brenner is author of the forthcoming America the Vulnerable: Inside the New Threat Matrix of Digital Espionage, Crime, and Warfare. He has served as the inspector general of the National Security Agency, the national counterintelligence executive, and the NSA's senior counsel. He now practices law at Cooley LLP in Washington, D.C.

GUSS SILVA

12:31 PM ET

September 6, 2011

So does that mean that Die

So does that mean that Die Hard IV was right and makes sense? Bruce Willis was kind of a visionary?

OK, the latter comment is a joke. The former I mean it though.

 

PHUZZE

2:54 AM ET

September 9, 2011

Try Ghost in the Shell

If you think Die Hard IV was on the money...check out Ghost in the Shell:Stand Alone Complex. I see elements predicted by that show in all sorts of modern technological/cyberwar/transhumanist events.

 

ORMONDOTVOS

1:22 PM ET

September 6, 2011

So you're warning us the grid may fail?

I agree, since it does all the time, due to penny-foolish maintenance cost-cutting and brainless consumption of electricity.

The obvious solution is to have a few gallons of stabilized gasoline and a small efficient generator, and a small, efficient chest freezer and LED lighting in critical areas of the home. Finish up with stores of food, medicine and water. Solar water heating with a solar PV powered pump can make water hot enough to cook and or shower with.

Doesn't every Mormon already do this? Good people to cultivate...

 

HECTORBD

10:47 PM ET

September 6, 2011

Disturbing

I thought these events only happen
in the movies. Yeah, Die Hard 4.0 comes to mind with these scenarios.

 

BEDAVAO

2:38 AM ET

September 7, 2011

merchants of chaos

I think anti-virus and firewall aoftware companies who benefits most by expanding cyber teror fear. It's also true we need to educate every webmaster and visitor not to be hooked by cyber terorrism.

 

EZONLINEATM

5:19 AM ET

September 7, 2011

This is disturbing!

I am sure the US powers that be have got that covered! Hopefully our US programmers and IT specialists know how to stop enemies of the USA from plundering or sabotaging the electronic intellectual property of the Americans.

I would hate to see another "online" 9-11 which means our networks should not ALL be protected closely. Keep our networks healthyandstrong.

God Bless the USA!

 

DAVU91

12:32 PM ET

September 7, 2011

Good people to cultivate.

Thanks good article, it was very interesting to read.

 

SCREWED AND TATTOOED

1:39 PM ET

September 7, 2011

Agreed

Good article about something most don't think about very much.

 

URGELT

4:37 PM ET

September 7, 2011

I do not think that there

I do not think that there ever was an age when national security and economic security lacked convergence.

With respect to intellectual property, China has long been a Bad Actor. Which is one reason why offshoring production to China makes short-term sense for American companies, but portends a long-term danger to American economic security.

In addition to securing our electrical grid and information networks, I think we should also reorient our trade policy. China, with its refusal to let markets set its currency value, its import barriers which far outstrip those of its trade partners, and its ruthless piracy of intellectual property, has established an uneven playing field that puts America at a severe economic disadvantage. That disadvantage is playing into our chronic economic weakness that seems only to get worse with every passing year. (No, I'm not arguing it's a sole cause. But it's a factor.)

 

GARRYBARRY

1:39 PM ET

September 8, 2011

Interesting

An interesting read I must say, I read the article whist listening to some MP3 songs music. I'll definitely be visiting again soon to read more of your great articles. Thanks for sharing, regards, Garry.

 

GESWEB

3:34 PM ET

September 8, 2011

Why?

I have to ask, what purpose does the grid's control systems being connected to the Internet serve?

All I can think of is to allow remote access, which raises the question 'is it really necessary?'.

I think your point about weighing up the benefits with the risks is absolutely right.

If the potential outcome of a cyber-attack can result in devastation or if you have any doubt whatsoever about your Internet security, keep it offline!

Danny

 

DARIOUS

10:19 PM ET

September 8, 2011

Security standards ala GAAP

And let's not forget the current headline grabbers of cyber-criminals (mostly Eastern European) who penetrate a SMB's, or even municipalities's, network, install spyware to obtain the online banking credentials (payroll is popular), and proceed to transfer out hundreds of thousands of dollars over a weekend.

Two of the core problems are:
A) Network security is often seen as an expense on the business, reducing management buy-in and limiting the vital investment in preventative technologies and skilled labor.
and
B) The overwhelming complexity of the job requirement. There are so many vectors of attack nowdays that professionals speak in terms of risk reduction and reduced exposure rather than threat elimination.

Mix the above with the fact that with each security person likely has their own areas of specialty (which leads to a corresponding weakness in other areas), the various and differing philosphies towards securing the IT environment, and the fact that skill levels among professionals are varied to say the least, as well as the economies of scale involved and you have a situation where only the larger companies can afford the costs on their margins to be able to supply the skills, technology and infrastructure to build an adequately secure environment.

The currents situation reminds me of what I read about the history of accounting in the pre-GAAP days. People making their best attempts, various mehodologies imployed, and no method to adequately compare one company's financial situation with another, leading to an inability to see the true state of affairs.

And I suspect that like accountingfield, IT security is likely to start to require a more standardized and methological approach to it's discipline, especially with the vaguer data retention requirements of Sarbanes-Oxley.

Cobit, ITIL and other methodologies do currently exist and are gaining steam, but the bit thing I'll be looking for is when the government starts requiring that businesses comply with some minimal set of standards and offers some advantage to those businesses that have already adopted a framework. (subject to independent audits, of course)

 

TRACK23

4:44 AM ET

October 6, 2011

I thought these events only

I thought these events only happen
in the movies. Yeah, Die Hard 4.0 comes to mind with these scenarios
türk sikis
sikisgizlesene
türk porno

 

OMAHAALEX

3:55 PM ET

September 9, 2011

It is such a pain when you get hacked!

I can relate a lot to this article. Recently my OmahaRealEstate website got hacked and shut down my business for several days. My real estate business doesn't compare to the federal government, however if one little hack on an insignificant website can cause as much disruption as it did, I can only imagine if a website with any level of importance gets hacked.

 

ASTRO77

9:09 PM ET

September 27, 2011

Having a small business

Having a small business website hacked is one thing which probably could have been prevented if the right security measures were taken. Data and information networks can be made totally secure, it is the human element of error that causes the weaknesses. You could just disconnect the network cabling for example and that would totally secure a network. Once you connect a private network to a public network you are exposed to vulnerabilities in the code which was written by a human, many times with holes which can be exploited.

Perhaps the answer is to design computer programs which design our online security, literally unable to miss a venerability.

 

VERNICE

9:16 AM ET

September 10, 2011

CyberCrime

Health industry payers as well as providers help to make appealing targets for identity theft and also certain other cyber criminals since they acquire and maintain significant amounts of protected information as well as other sensitive personal and financial data and conduct many transactions electronically. Therefore, it is not surprising that they are targets of identity thieves and other cyber criminals.

 

ZYBHJK

9:19 PM ET

September 10, 2011

Hooray for polemics!

I know FP traffics in absurd polemics (and let my subscription lapse accordingly several years ago), but I hardly think this frantic fear-mongering ("...and it's about to get much, much worse"!) is the best way to find solutions to the huge set of problems lazily lumped together under "cyber warfare". Personal data privacy (including financial matters) can be secured by existing techniques in better IT management, individual/corporate education, and even judicious use of cryptography. Resultant fraud (Eastern European mobsters or otherwise), and failure to protect private information can be treated as such through law.

And really, all this handwringing about Chinese IP law? That has little to no connection to the security of critical communications networks ("but it's all COMPUTERS!"), not to mention, as I am sure you are aware, the US was a similar offender in industrial espionage (with England as the protesting party) in the late 19th-century. That is a legal and policy question which can be addressed as such.

Your comments on critical infrastructure networks are quite reasonable, and fall under the category of existing best-practice IT policies. It seems the problem is with insufficient adherence to good IT security. Even stuxnet only could jump the air gap by employees bringing infected removable media into the nuclear facility. Thank you for pointing towards these shortcomings as the primary culprit, rather than taking poorly understood threats as justification for continued "national security" overreach and cold-war style "weapons build-up" as many other "cyber experts" are prone to do.

 

HIBERN

9:46 PM ET

September 10, 2011

20 Terabytes was stolen remotely in the year 2001?

This "remote attack" used the internet as it existed in 2001 and moved 20 Terabytes? Plus Joel says nobody noticed 20 TB zipping along....

I reckon the 50-mile-long convoy of moving vans would have been easier, given the bandwidth back then.

 

LOE

8:16 PM ET

September 14, 2011

Ward-off the cyber threats!

Living in an automated world can be fast, easy, satisfying and luxuriant like using wobenzym n; but, the threat of being led astray by a bunch of cyber goons rakes fears in us all making us vulnerable and leaving us at the mercy of these goons who might or might not disrupt our lives and make our whole world stop. With the threat of cyber insecurity looming large, connecting the departments of utilities like electricity, air control to the internet will be an insane thing to do. Ideally, companies should detach these resources from the public view and make them as inaccessible as possible to the intruders.

 

ALEXWORK

4:44 AM ET

September 16, 2011

Same old story

The analysts and experts have been saying it was going to get much, much worse for years. Since before the 2000 freak-out. Goal Setting

But I guess if they said that we were in a state of relative peace on the net, they would probably be out on the street looking for something else to peddle besides fear.

 

EDDYTHOMAS

1:58 PM ET

September 29, 2011

When technology is disadvantaged

Two with the most talked about problems are almost certainly China and also the cyber war. In relation to each these problems, there appears to become creating some type of the powerful link in between the 2 with China's quickly advancement and progress in all locations. Richard Clarke, who served like a counterterrorism to Presidents Invoice Clinton and George W. Bush, turned his interest to a brand new prospective safety disaster that is terrorism via computer systems.

Financial drawbacks can frequently be transformed into military benefits as inside the situation of North Korea along with other nations which have minimum pc primarily based infrastructure. Following the Gulf war, China arrived up having a guide describing how this kind of nations might have an higher hand within the situation of cyber war. Therefore, within the instance of North Korea, it proves the way it might have the higher hand simply because it does not have pc infrastructure that could possibly be turned off.

 

TAYFA34

3:12 AM ET

September 30, 2011

Same story

And Palestinian land will shrink, suicide bombers will respond, rockets will be launched and Israelis killed. Now Hezbollah and Sunnis have started up again in Lebanon. And Iran is powering up its nuclear capacity. Israel may feel impelled to react at some point if it calculates either Lebanon or Iran needs to be nipped in the bud. Add Syria to the toxic mix in Lebanon; and if things boil over there then Palestine will be left to sit and stew on the perennial international back burner. Hope, at this point, is not even a diamond in the rough. porno porno porno porno web tasarım