Does Obama Have His Eye on the Right Economic Crisis?

The top ten economic worries to choose from -- and unemployment's only mid-pack.

BY DAVID ROTHKOPF | SEPTEMBER 8, 2011

In the United States this week, the focus of speeches and political debates will be jobs. It's not surprising. With almost 30 million Americans out of work, under-employed or so frustrated that they've stopped looking for a job, it's the issue that is widely considered to be the game-changer as far as next year's presidential election is concerned.

But as urgent as the jobs crisis is, it is only one of a stunning array of economic crises and potential flashpoints competing for the attention of top politicians and making investors extremely uneasy. You see, the main contagion problem confronting the global economy is not that one of these economic troubles will erupt in one place and spread to other countries -- but rather that there will be a domino effect among these crises, even as each spreads geographically.

Here are the top 10 in terms of their apparent relative urgency and potential global impact at this moment:

10. The U.S. Deficit

This is an issue that has virtually no urgency. That doesn't mean it is not important. It is. But right now, it is at the back of the line and if the U.S. punted on it (as we will) for the next 18 months, it would not be the end of the world -- provided it looks like we really have plans to address the problem and we are aggressively using the moment to produce deficit-reducing growth as best we can.

STAN HONDA/AFP/Getty Images

 SUBJECTS: CHINA, ECONOMICS, EUROPE
 

BRAUERR31

12:24 PM ET

September 8, 2011

You Can't Put This Off Anymore.

I really don't agree that the US debt can take the backseat to other issues. Ignoring the problem is what lead to this huge mess in the first place. As a country we need to stop "putting out fires" and focus on chipping away at things that could be serious problems in the next 5-10 years. The economy and budget/debt crisis are certainly a part of this group. The more we procrastinate issues like these, the more we risk having egg all over our face - again. While the politicians sit around I'm going to keep playing my flight simulator and worrying about online business ideas. Until then, we'll just have to sit by and watch our government shoot itself in the foot.

 

MOREOPTIONS

7:25 PM ET

September 8, 2011

Yes we can (put it off)

The national debt did not cause the financial meltdown. Financial deregulation allowed banks to create toxic assets and credit default swaps (remember all that?) that pushed the economy to the cliff. There are still over one trillion in toxic assets out there in the banking system. Washington is to blame because of deregulation. Financial houses just figured they could make a buck. That was the cause, not the US deficit.

Pretty much any responsible economist will acknowledge debt - while important in the long term - is not the patient lying on the table. Getting the economy functioning is the problem. If people don't have jobs (and can therefore spend money) the economy is going nowhere fast. Austerity at this point only makes the problem worse.

 

VR

8:57 AM ET

September 9, 2011

Yes we can...

...put it off. If you're saying that the current stagnation in the U.S. economy is due to our debt, then you need to reacquaint yourself with the lead-up to September 2008 and with simple economics. That being said, the U.S. SHOULD focus on jump starting job growth and then focus on revenue to fix the imbalance. It is a lot easier for the government to earn income by taxing individuals with jobs than by taxing those without.

 

DAVIDCEISEN

7:56 AM ET

September 11, 2011

[Citation Needed]

"Ignoring the problem is what lead to this huge mess in the first place."

Exactly how did government spending lead to the housing crises and financial bubble? Somehow George Bush's wars and Medicare handouts to big-Pharma led to banks bundeling sub-prime mortgages and selling them to other banks.

If the federal debt were such an important issue, why do 10 year treasury bond have such low interest rates?

If the federal debt is holding back the economy, why has job creation come grinding to a stop just when deficit reduction plans have been implemented? And why has a recession immediately followed every instance that the US government has balanced its budget?

 

PAUL HOPKINS

2:28 PM ET

September 8, 2011

I don't agree

@BRAUERR31: Why would you say so? The prospect of a one-term Obama presidency is bound to have important effects on foreign policy too. I'll bet other countries are already starting to think about the possibility, and starting to factor that into their calculations. The obvious implication is that any governments who have serious differences with the Obama administration are going to dig in their heels even more and hope for better 7 passenger vehicles after 2012. It's possible that some governments who fear a more hard-line U.S. response under the GOP might be tempted to cut deals while they can, but I don't think that's very likely because they would also have to wonder if a lame-duck administration could deliver on any deal it made.

 

CASSANDRAAA

5:48 PM ET

September 8, 2011

put Mexico on the list?

How about putting Mexico high on the list? With all the worries about exotic places, there is Mexico with whom we share a border, in danger of becoming a failed narco-state. And an even more impoverished one, as their Gulf oil fields rapidly decline, likely to continue as a conduit for hordes of desperately poor people who want to enter Los Estados Unidos.

 

MJKOCH

5:57 PM ET

September 8, 2011

Turkey is about to set the Middle East aflame

Unfortunately you forgot to list what everyone hopes will not be a major conflagration that the Middle East seems to be heading towards: The Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan's insane insistence in creating a military confrontation with Israel.

Turkey refused to accept the findings of the U.N. panel that Israel had a right to patrol the waters into Gaza to prevent arms from reaching Islamic militants. Each day Turkey's leader seems to be taking leave of his senses and makes more and more threats, the latest of which is to send Turkish warships to escort ships to Gaza (in contravention of the U.N.) and patrol the waters Israels navy does to prevent arms from reaching Gaza. Turkey seems to be doing more than baiting Israel and seems intent on actually starting a mini war with Israel. If this were to happen it is inevitable that Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria would join with the Turks and the region could become an inferno with thousands on both sides killed.

Obama does not seem to have made any headway with Turkey's increasingly bizarre leader and it's time the leaders of NATO including the British, French, and Germans inform the Turks that they risk being removed from NATO if they institute armed aggression against the State of Israel and could suffer penalties involving trade with Europe. The price of oil will skyrocket if Erdogan is allowed to cause this potential conflict to erupt into full scale war. His behaviour is so erratic and so dangerous that one almost wishes the Turkish military would step in and if not stage a coup inform Erdogan that they are not going to war with the State of Israel, especially since Israel has expressed regret for the loss of life on the flotilla and agreed to pay the families of the deceased compensation.

If cooler heads do not prevail and the Middle East erupts into flames all bets are off for an economic recovery in America and Europe.

 

KARENYKARL

8:43 AM ET

September 9, 2011

So, you're saying

that Israel is now encouraging a military coup in Turkey?

 

CORTES

12:56 PM ET

October 8, 2011

Really?

I have to disagree with your assessment. Erdogan has been the Turkish PM since 2003 so if he was haywire as you claim him to be, why would he set the Middle East on fire now in 2011? Turkey is trying to make Israel pay for failing to apologize over the Mavi Mar saga.

 

SAULPAULUS

8:00 AM ET

September 9, 2011

Faulty Logic

This would be an arguable list if the author were ordering threats to the US economy by their significance. His premise, however, was that the President should pay more attention various overseas troubles than to unemployment at home.

Even if we accept the author's ordering of these troubles, however, the fact remains that the President can do little, if anything, about the economic problems of Greece, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Brazil or really any other sovereign nation. His focus needs to be on domestic issues.

I agree that the deficit, while important, is a much less immediate priority than employment and housing. The President is doing what he can to push through resolution of the foreclosure logjam that is plaguing the housing market, but it will take time. The most immediate concern is to stimulate the economy and help create jobs and that is what he is attempting to do.

 

SAULPAULUS

8:00 AM ET

September 9, 2011

Faulty Logic

This would be an arguable list if the author were ordering threats to the US economy by their significance. His premise, however, was that the President should pay more attention various overseas troubles than to unemployment at home.

Even if we accept the author's ordering of these troubles, however, the fact remains that the President can do little, if anything, about the economic problems of Greece, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Brazil or really any other sovereign nation. His focus needs to be on domestic issues.

I agree that the deficit, while important, is a much less immediate priority than employment and housing. The President is doing what he can to push through resolution of the foreclosure logjam that is plaguing the housing market, but it will take time. The most immediate concern is to stimulate the economy and help create jobs and that is what he is attempting to do.

 

KARENYKARL

8:38 AM ET

September 9, 2011

David Rothkopf is as usual, brilliant!

Many foreign policy wonks emphasize only two or three, but Rothkopf has ten, very close to what I believe is in the right order.

Why hasn't anyone talked about the fact that at the current time, the European Union appears to be suffering some of the same problems the United States had when it was a confederation and not a republic. Instead of competing currencies, we have competing government bonds.

It is a dream, but some day I'd like to see a government that spanned nations and languages globally.

 

ROB DAVIDEUR

9:20 AM ET

September 9, 2011

A point of view from Paris, france

Hello,
My name is Rob and I live in Paris, France.
From here, we have the impression that Mr Obama give the country the meabs to overcome this worldwide crisis, by focusing on job creation and tax reduction for companies.
We hope our government in France would do the same. I understand that Mr Obama also wants to develop green jobs which would be great for the growth of the country, promising for the future and good for the health of the planet.
I run myself a web site dedicated to the construction and price of wooden houses in france but we do not get much help to develop our activity and create jobs. If you are interested or if you have some good ideas to propose, please visit our site : http://www.prix-maison-en-bois.fr.
We wish good luck to president Obama and hope that this big plan will be adopted and implemented.
Rob

 

CASAMASSAGEM

2:13 PM ET

September 9, 2011

Interesting

yea, in the banking system. Washington is to blame because of deregulation. facebook fans buy Financial houses just figured they could make a buck. Thanks!
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NICHOLAS WIBBERLEY

8:57 PM ET

September 9, 2011

Economic crisis

The global financial system is unravelling and efforts to arrest the process long-term are like eating soup with a fork. Rather than tuck krugerands into your undies, I would suggest buy a bit of land and learn how to grow stuff. Interestingly, older Greeks are beginning to look wistfully at the farms they abandoned and some are even going back and rolling up their sleeves.

 

DAVIDCEISEN

7:58 AM ET

September 11, 2011

11. Increasing occurrence of 'natural' disasters

Droughts, floods, hurricanes, typhoons, wildfires, ect will have a serious destabilizing effect on the global economy and will be occurring at increasing rates.

 

KENNETHC

4:32 PM ET

September 12, 2011

Jobs isn't the top of the list...

But it sure is close to it, and perhaps more tangibly for Obama, the one over which he has the most power over, to the extent he has any power to effect any changes on anything on the list.

Items 1-3 are Euro matters, for which Obama can spend a lot of time worrying but ultimately is unable to either force Greece to get its act together or make the Germans pick up everyone's tab. Item 4 has components that are within the US and the SEC definitely requires a large overhaul, but it's going to require both resolving the above Euro issues, as well as international coordination so that banks don't pack up and find a more amenable regulatory climate.

So, having eliminated those options in which Obama is most hamstrung, we are left with...Jobs in America, a largely domestic problem for which rightly or wrongly he'll be blamed (or credited if he does fix it) when 2012 elections roll around.

From the point of view of where to spend your efforts and political capital, what makes sense then? A dilemma over which you have zero authority and little say, or the one where the office of the Presidency has significantly greater influence and de jure power? Right.

 

MARCUS_HOLCOM

11:41 AM ET

September 14, 2011

Economic Crisis of 2011.

Many describe 2011 as a period of “heightened uncertainty” for the global economy because there are so many things than can go seriously wrong.
On the financial markets and government policy side, the world just emerged from the worst post-WWII economic crisis and conditions are still extremely fragile – some even think the recovery is fake and a new crisis is just waiting to unfold Affiliate Programs Review. Moreover, extraordinary and unprecedented policies were implemented to combat the 2008 financial crisis. Now, many are worried about the potentially damaging impact of these extreme policies.On the geopolitical side, the world is the most unstable it’s been in years in key regions. Below are 10 looming risks that can derail the global economy in this period of “heightened uncertainty.”

 

ANAN

6:02 AM ET

September 16, 2011

Treat the Crisis!

The on-going debate about the escalating unemployment and the need to create jobs for millions of its citizens has been keeping U.S on the tenter-hooks for long. Although Obama’s next tenure in the President’s office very much depends on his job-creating potential, there are too many economic crises going on in the world that require his attention like political crises in the Middle East, emerging powers like Brazil and China etc. Ridden with internal problems like deficit, debt and inflation, U.S. needs something like natural anti inflammatories to save it from the economic doom the country is apparently plunging into. Multi-pronged action is the need of the day.

 

TAYFA34

2:51 AM ET

October 2, 2011

No Comment

And Palestinian land will shrink, suicide bombers will respond, rockets will be launched and Israelis killed. Now Hezbollah and Sunnis have started up again in Lebanon. And Iran is powering up its nuclear capacity. Israel may feel impelled to react at some point if it calculates either Lebanon or Iran needs to be nipped in the bud. Add Syria to the toxic mix in Lebanon; and if things boil over there then Palestine will be left to sit and stew on the perennial international back burner. Hope, at this point, is not even a diamond in the rough. porno porno porno porno web tasarım

 

YARINSIZ

1:58 PM ET

October 6, 2011

The national debt did not

The national debt did not cause the financial meltdown. Financial deregulation allowed banks to create toxic assets and credit default swaps (remember all that?) that pushed the economy to the cliff. seslichat There are still over one trillion in toxic assets out there in the banking system. Washington is to blame because of deregulation. Financial houses just figured they could make a buck. That was the cause, not the US deficit..