Asia's New Great Game

China and India are both hungry for Burma's vast natural riches. But will Burma's people pay the price or can this Southeast Asian backwater finally enter the 21st century?

BY THANT MYINT-U | SEPTEMBER 12, 2011

Slide Show: Asia's New Silk Road

When geography changes -- as when the Suez Canal joined Europe to the Indian Ocean, or when the railroads transformed the American West and the Russian East -- old patterns of contact disappear and new ones take hold, turning strangers into neighbors and transforming backwaters into zones of new strategic significance. Entire groups decline or vanish; others rise in importance.

Over these next few years, Asia's geography will see a fundamental reorientation, bringing China and India together as never before across what was once a vast and neglected frontier stretching over a thousand miles from Kolkata to the Yangtze River basin. And Burma, long seen in Western policy circles as little more than an intractable human rights conundrum, may soon sit astride one of the world's newest and most strategically significant crossroads. Mammoth infrastructure projects are taming a once inhospitable landscape. More importantly, Burma and adjacent areas, which had long acted as a barrier between the two ancient civilizations, are reaching demographic and environmental as well as political watersheds. Ancient barriers are being broken, and the map of Asia is being redone.

For millennia, India and China have been separated by near impenetrable jungle, deadly malaria, and fearsome animals, as well as the Himalayas and the high wastelands of the Tibetan plateau. They have taken shape as entirely distinct civilizations, strikingly dissimilar in race, language, and customs. To reach India from China or vice versa, monks, missionaries, traders, and diplomats had to travel by camel and horse thousands of miles across the oasis towns and deserts of Central Asia and Afghanistan, or by ship over the Bay of Bengal and then through the Strait of Malacca to the South China Sea.  

But as global economic power shifts to the East, the configuration of the East is changing, too. The continent's last great frontier is disappearing, and Asia will soon be woven together as never before.

At the heart of the changes is Burma. Burma is not a small country; it is as big in size as France and Britain combined, but its population of 60 million is tiny compared with the 2.5 billion combined populations of its two massive neighbors. It is the missing link between China and India.

It is an unlikely 21st-century nexus. Burma is one of the world's poorest countries, wracked by a series of seemingly unending armed conflicts, and ruled for nearly five decades by one military or military-dominated regime after another. In 1988, following the brutal suppression of a pro-democracy uprising, a new junta took power, agreeing to cease fires with former communist and ethnic insurgents and seeking to unwind years of self-imposed isolation. But its repressive policies soon led to Western sanctions and this, together with growing corruption and continued mismanagement, meant that any hope of even economic improvement quickly dimmed.

By the mid-1990s the view of Burma in the West became fairly set -- a timeless backwater, brutal and bankrupt, the realm of juntas and drug lords, as well as courageous pro-democracy activists, led by Aung San Suu Kyi. A place worthy of humanitarian attention, but unconnected to the much bigger story of Asia's global rise. China, however, viewed things differently. Where the West saw a problem and offered mainly platitudes and a little aid, China recognized an opportunity and began changing facts on the ground.  

Drn/Getty Images

 

Thant Myint-U has served on three U.N. peacekeeping operations, as well as with the U.N. Department of Political Affairs, and is a former fellow at Cambridge University, where he taught history. He is the author of Where China Meets India: Burma and the New Crossroads of Asia, from which this essay is adapted.

ARYABHAT

5:04 AM ET

September 13, 2011

Interesting and thoughtful article

Thank you FP for this article - very well thought out and incisive.

With all respect to Democracy and human rights, I think it is time for USA and India to realise that more immidiate task is to contain Chinese controlling Burma completely. In such a scenario, China will not only have "Two Oceans" but also siphone off Burmese Gas (one of the biggest reserve), grow even more capable and so more thratening, perhaps sooner then world thought. And no chance for Democracy in Burma for a long long time to come.

Rather, if US and India engage Burma openly and remove sanctions, Burma can get richer by better technology on Oil & Gas, so can USA and India too, and limit chinese influence in long run. It also increases long run chance of improving human rights in Burma.

IF we can live with Saudis and Bahrain, why no Burma?

 

CELOND

11:44 PM ET

September 13, 2011

Agreet it's a game

Burma is certainly big factor on world political balance. At this game Burma will become everyday more important.

 

XTIANGODLOKI

10:14 AM ET

September 13, 2011

It's Myanmar, not Burma

You figured that the author who used to work for UN would recognize this, since UN is among the first to endorse the name change .

 

TC1

11:32 PM ET

September 13, 2011

Myanmar

I think all the talk above about India and the various states in and on its border area say enough to show that Myanmar can be the 'foil' between India and China.

And for now that a 'foil' is needed!

 

TROY C

9:54 AM ET

September 14, 2011

I think as China and India

I think as China and India become closer politically and economically, it will be in the best interests of both of them to help Burma become stable and to prosper. At the moment, both China and India are focussing on work from home so that they can take advantage of their rapid growth and improving quality of life. The closer China and India become, the more willing and motivated they will be to steer their troubled common neighbour in the right direction.

 

MALKHAZ

5:18 PM ET

September 16, 2011

Great game, but China has an advantage

China and India are indeed the future economies to play a huge role in world development trends, however China has an advantage and is about few decades ahead to India and can accumulate more resources and get better control then India in shorter period. so it is the Greater Game for China then for India I believe.

 

JENS8912

12:35 PM ET

September 14, 2011

great game

I think we are all understand game that is power. we should leave all game and help each other for prevent poverty and prosperous. As a inhabitant of asia we have able to doing good any for human.

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MADCLIVE

2:04 PM ET

September 14, 2011

Great game indeed

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SITEPECAS

8:17 PM ET

September 14, 2011

Betwixt Civilizations.

Nepal is another one though geography is not on its side. So is the case with Sikkim and Nathu la. Or for that matter, Laddakh, HP, Uttarakhand, Assam and Arunachal Pradesh. Burma can be host the Silk route if it remains under a strong military junta.... This is the only way to avoid another Nepal between the civilizations.
Thanks !!!
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ARYABHAT

6:05 AM ET

September 15, 2011

Renamed YHWH?

Interesting to note that SITEPECAS is repeating verbatim what YHWH wrote.

I am afraid truth wasn't clear to him in my first response, so I repeat it here.

Please do not compare Ladakh or HP or Uttarakhand or Sikkim or Assam or Arunachal Pradesh with Myanmmar.

Ladakh or HP or Uttarakhand or Sikkim or Assam or Arunachal Pradesh are integral parts of India. Each one except Ladakh being a state of Union of India. Nathu La is a PASS - a transit point - a location, NOT even a state or region!

Interesting to notice that you forgot Tibet, while remembering all Himalayan states of India! Do I smell a Chinese trap here?

Myanmmar can host silk route irrespective of it is a Democracy or Military rule, as long as economics of trade route work out ! Am I paranoid when I see a subtle Chinese influence in suggestion that Myanmmar must be Military ruled to host Silk route?

BTW, your title should have been spelled as "Between Civilisations", not Betwixt! Time and again I have suggested that Chinese schools should teach better English, but no results yet! :-)

 

GEORGE1

11:52 PM ET

September 25, 2011

Will Burma be a cause for tussle?

Things have started changing in Burma, from it’s hitherto status of neglected and forgotten land to a resource-rich country with advantageous geographical location that has the goodness of antiinflammatory herbs

 

CORTES

6:22 PM ET

October 11, 2011

If Burma indeed consumes a

If Burma indeed consumes a turn for the more desirable as well as we meet a dregs to decades of armed conflict, a lifting of Western sanctions, democratic government, and broad-based monetary development, the impact might be simply dramatic.

 

GEORGE1

12:15 AM ET

September 26, 2011

Will Burma be a cause for tussle?

Things have started changing in Burma, from it’s hitherto status of neglected and forgotten land to a resource-rich country with advantageous geographical location that has the goodness of anti inflammatory herbs. It has gained the interest of its neighbors in the recent years and the countries like India and China have slowly started making foray into this poverty-ridden country for their selfish motives. Each of these countries has been eyeing Burma to extend their mercantile operations and this is likely to create a rift between China and India in the near future. Whatever the consequence of this rivalry might be, one thing is for sure it’s time to redraw the Asian map!

 

TAYFA34

5:42 AM ET

October 6, 2011

Interesting

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RESZKA

3:52 AM ET

October 12, 2011

Let us in no way fail to

Let us in no way fail to remember that this geographic shift amounts on a pretty special moment in Asia's history. A moment of growing unity as well as prosperity on the conclusion of a century of tremendous violence and armed conflict as well as centuries more of Western colonial domination.