Egypt's Identity Crisis

The mood in Tahrir Square may be gloomy, but Egypt is right where it should be.

BY STEVEN A. COOK | SEPTEMBER 19, 2011

It may be hard to believe -- with the weekly Friday protests, last week's teachers strike, student sit-ins, and the Sept. 9 storming of the Israeli embassy -- but there is something languid about Cairo these days. Perhaps it was the long, hot, and very tense summer, but the creativity and positive energy that marked Egypt between January and June seems sapped. Whatever is going on in the streets, and recently at the campus of the American University in Cairo, seems forced -- a strained effort to do something, anything, to once again capture the lightning in a bottle that was those 18 days in Tahrir Square. It is not working, though. Last Friday's protest (dubbed, "No to Emergency Law") only drew only hundreds to the square.

It is not so much that one group is ascendant at the expense of others. Everyone seems to be struggling with the complexities of the present moment. Egyptian liberals are despondent over what they fear will be a Muslim Brotherhood rout in the November elections; revolutionary groups are having trouble gaining traction with a fatigued population; Islamists are confident, but have flailed tactically in an unfamiliar political environment; Prime Minister Essam Sharaf's government is a non-factor; and the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces seems to be staggering under the pressure of a political role for which they were never trained. This bleak atmosphere is a stunning turnaround from the post-uprising mantra of "Anything has got to be better than the Mubarak regime."

So, is the revolution over? It is tempting to throw one's hands up and declare that the combined weight of a persistent counter-revolution, economic realities, revolutionary narcissism, and incompetence thwarted the chance to build a new Egypt. Beyond the "hopes dashed" narrative, however, Egypt's seemingly tortured present actually reveals something relatively healthy -- the normalization of politics.

Egyptians have long conducted an intense national debate about what Egypt is, what it stands for, and its place in the world. However, this conversation was always conducted within the circumscribed contours of an authoritarian political system. Former Presidents Gamal Abdel Nasser, Anwar Sadat, and Hosni Mubarak plugged narratives that they hoped would elicit the loyalties of large numbers of Egyptians. Egypt has thus lurched from a vaguely socialist standard-bearer of the Third World, to late Cold War strategic partner of the United States, to emerging market darling of Wall Street -- all in the pursuit of national power, prosperity, and peace.

None of these narratives, however, managed to bridge the gap between what Egyptians were being told about their lives and how they actually experienced them. How many Egyptians actually internalized Mubarak's "stability for the sake of development," because they personally felt wealthier, healthier, and more eductated as a result of his neo-liberal reforms? Not too many.

But for over a half century, those who publicly objected to Nasser's vaguely socialist drift, questioned Sadat's embrace of the United States on nationalist grounds, and decried the economic reforms of the late Mubarak period did so at great personal risk. It was not until the Jan. 25 protests, when demonstrators declared that they were no longer afraid, were these critiques potent enough to bring down the regime.

Now, for all the problems and complexities of the new political order, Egyptians are getting an opportunity to debate the central questions of their national life in a free and unfettered manner. There has been an explosion of new magazines, newspapers, and television channels devoted almost exclusively to exploring the important political issues of the day. The intense discussion of a bill of rights, supra-constitutional principles, and the meaning of a "civil state"  are positive developments. To be sure, there are excesses. The student strike at the American University in Cairo (AUC), with its contradictory demands and calls to "storm Lisa's [Anderson, the president of AUC] palace" seemed like a vainglorious effort to remain relevant seven months after Tahrir, rather than a genuine effort to address whatever concerns the strikers believe exist at the  university.

Even with the self-indulgence of some revolutionary groups, the cacophony of the press, half-developed party platforms, the preening of certain politicians, and the emergence of dozens of new political parties and coalitions, the ferocious debates of the last months will be critical in helping shape Egypt's political trajectory. These fundamental "identity" questions are, in fact, more important than the execution and outcome of the country's upcoming election to the People's Assembly, which are now scheduled for November.

Unless the antecedent questions about Egypt's identity are answered in a way that makes sense to the vast majority of Egyptians, the quality of the upcoming poll matters less than many believe. The eye-rolling clichés of American expert analysis during those heady days in January and February -- "now the hard work begins," "we are only in the first inning," and "the situation is fluid" -- are no less annoying today, but they happen to have a ring of truth.

There is no doubt that the next People's Assembly, which will be responsible for choosing a committee of 100 to draft a new constitution, will have an important influence on Egyptian politics. But there seem to be two misconceptions about the process: First, that the assembly will take place in a vacuum, free of the conflict and debates that are currently roiling the Egyptian political arena. Second, that this group will come up with an acceptable document in a few months. These exepectations defy both historical precedent and the political realities of present-day Egypt. The danger is not so much that the constitution writing will take a long time or that the Muslim Brotherhood may dominate the process, but rather that the new constitution will be rushed and, as a result, will not adequately address what Egypt is, what it stands for, and its place in the world.

Egyptians and outside observers have been preaching patience, but they are are not exhibiting any. Without the development of a set of positive myths about Egypt's future, any group, party, or leader will be politically vulnerable, heralding instability and the potential return of authoritarian politics. Uncertainty and contestation are precisely what political transitions are all about. They may be hard to accept, given all the challenges Egypt now confronts, but Egyptians are exactly where they should be.

KHALED DESOUKI/AFP/Getty Images

 SUBJECTS: MIDDLE EAST
 

Steven A. Cook is the Hasib J. Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. He is the author of The Struggle for Egypt: From Nasser to Tahrir Square.

HUNTER14

1:27 AM ET

September 20, 2011

The problem

It's not PC to say so but the problem is Islam. Can anyone show me one successful Islamic democracy in the middle east?

 

KOMASA

9:57 AM ET

September 20, 2011

yes i can

I think Turkey is very successful on this area and can be good sample. But i dont see turkey is going right direction islamic regime will come there soon and then we can forget about democracy...
oyun

 

AHMED EL ZEKI

9:51 AM ET

September 21, 2011

YOU ARE WRONG

turkey

 

AHMED EL ZEKI

10:13 AM ET

September 21, 2011

the truth is this

The problem is not in Islam but is in the ability of people to seek to progress. And if the retreat of the state because of Islam, how would you back civil wars in the United States or the fall of France with Napoleon, even after the French Revolution ?.. all people go through periods of weakness, but be back soon in particular Egyptians and also succeeded at a time throughout the 7000 years would not be strange to get up to implement the dream because dreams can be a reality .......that is what martin louther king believed in

 

VUPROXY

3:29 AM ET

September 20, 2011

Remarks on Egypt's Identity Crisis

I fond this post very informative report

 

RUSUDANIELAM

4:03 AM ET

September 20, 2011

Egypt's Identity Crisis

I think that Prime Minister Essam Sharaf's government is a non-factor. Reading these news I feel real sad...

 

MSMII

7:55 AM ET

September 20, 2011

Obama's idea of foreign

Obama's idea of foreign policy is amateur, at best. Everyone experiencing the Middle East now can Thank Obama
http://msmignoresit.blogspot.com/2011/08/thank-obama.html

 

RUSUDANIELAM

9:16 AM ET

September 20, 2011

Everyone seems to be struggling with the complexities

Everyone seems to be struggling with the complexities of the present moment. Everybody want expensive cars, but nobody speaks about the real problems.

 

THORSTENM

4:31 PM ET

September 20, 2011

But what they are?

What you consider to be the real problems ? I think in this case you can't blame the government
Thorsten

 

LHLY34

9:52 AM ET

September 20, 2011

 

COMETLINEAR

10:55 AM ET

September 20, 2011

Hey ForeignPolicy.com, here's a novel idea...

FORBID POSTS WHICH CONTAIN THE STRING "lovetoshopping.org"

 

DAVID IN CAIRO

4:24 PM ET

September 20, 2011

Dr. Cook - I think your

Dr. Cook - I think your argument that Egypt has entered a phase of 'normalization of politics' is a difficult pill to swallow. It's certainly true that since the Islamist demonstration in Tahrir on July 29 and then the demolition of the tent-city a few days later Cairo hasn't seen a mass protest to rival those of earlier this summer and spring. However, we did see the Israeli Embassy debacle, which I believe was a step in the wrong direction for Egypt's democrats - the emergency law is back, there was a renewed crackdown on the press, and the incident was rightly seen as an act of hooliganism worldwide (not to mention 1000+ injured and several killed). Although the break-in was probably led by soccer fanatics, I think you'd agree that the demonstration itself it was an expression of the revolutionary youth's feeling that they have no voice in the transition process, of which Egypt's Israel policy is one of the more glaring signs. Many believed they had to do something bold and violent to remind the SCAF that they still mattered. In the absence of any visible developments from the Sharaf government or SCAF we may see more violence.

Another very real possibility is what your colleague Prof. Lynch suggested in his article about young liberals intention to boycott the coming elections. That would be a disaster for the democracy movement in Egypt, as Prof. Lynch points out. In addition, the new election law has been condemned by just about everyone (here's a good summary from AhramOnline: http://bit.ly/obhw0W), and critics say it hurts new parties and preserves the individual-candidate ballots. I'm not a elections specialist so I don't know if these claims are valid, but I do worry about anything that challenges the legitimacy of the elections. I'm sure they'll face enough criticism as it is. The worst-case scenario, of course, is a situation like Algeria, where the Islamist victory led to the military cancelling elections and a bloody civil war. That's not likely to happen here, but one understands the concern.

So perhaps your right and Egypt is on the long, slow, *correct* path to democracy. But seeing, among other things, the increase in crime, the violent demonstrations, the frustration, the growing animosity towards foreigners, and pessimism about the elections, I remain unconvinced.

Thank you for a very interesting article.

 

MARCUS_HOLCOM

5:12 AM ET

September 21, 2011

Egyptian Revolution.

It is not at all clear what will happen in the Egyptian revolution. It is not a surprise that this is happening. Hosni Mubarak has been president for more than a quarter of a century, ever since the assassination of Anwar Sadat. He is old and has been ill. No one expected him to live much longer, and his apparent plan, which was that he would be replaced by his son Gamal, was not going to happen even though it was a possibility a year ago, They can also make use of Affiliate Programs to get benefits for their social awareness programs.

There was no one, save his closest business associates, who wanted to see Mubarak’s succession plans happen. As his father weakened, Gamal’s succession became even less likely. Mubarak’s failure to design a credible succession plan guaranteed instability on his death. Since everyone knew that there would be instability on his death, there were obviously those who saw little advantage to acting before he died. Who these people were and what they wanted is the issue.

 

AHMED EL ZEKI

10:02 AM ET

September 21, 2011

IT IS NOT WHAT WE DESERVE

Egyptians, deserve more. As we have built a civilization inspired the world capable of making a complete revolution of the pillars .... and if we were going through difficult circumstances, you will not be the most difficult of circumstances experienced by France, Germany and Japan by us. And whatever way we are able to push our country forward, to have its place among the world's real first ......... it's really a matter of time

 

ANTIE

7:41 AM ET

October 10, 2011

Egypt waits for a new dawn

Egypt is having a tough time in preserving their hard-won freedom from the dictatorial rule of Mubarak. Battling the fears of failure of democracy, it is intending to create an identity that will not be torn down by the dominance of Muslims or thwarted by the hasty drafting of Egyptian constitution. The impending elections and the subsequent results will turn out to be good provided that the country is ready to exercise patience, and is willing to learn from its mistakes. It should ensure that its future constitution should be able to stand for all the democratic notions, ideologies of peace and even the impact of systemic enzymes factor that the revolution of Tahrir square has stood for.

 

YARINSIZ

7:03 PM ET

October 14, 2011

It is not at all clear what

It is not at all clear what will happen in the Egyptian revolution. It is not a surprise that this is happening. Hosni Mubarak has been president for more than a quarter of a century, ever since the assassination of Anwar Sadat. He is old and has been ill. seslichat No one expected him to live much longer, and his apparent plan, which was that he would be replaced by his son Gamal, was not going to happen even though it was a possibility a year ago, They can also make use of Affiliate Programs to get benefits for their social awareness programs.