Bank Shot

The eurozone's banking crisis is on the verge of becoming a global economic catastrophe. But do the economic heavyweights meeting in Washington this week know what to do about it?

BY MOHAMED A. EL-ERIAN | SEPTEMBER 21, 2011

As policymakers from around the world gather in Washington this week for the International Monetary Fund/World Bank annual meetings, they would be well advised to remember a key lesson from the 2008 global financial crisis: In today's intricately interconnected world, a crisis is very hard to contain once it spreads beyond its epicenter. And with Italy and European banks once thought to be safe now looking decidedly shaky, Europe's crisis now poses a material threat to global stability and prosperity. This is why more dithering by policymakers is so costly and why the solution is no longer only in Europe's hand.

When Greece's debt crisis erupted almost two years ago, prompting rating downgrades and a stock market panic, too many European officials characterized the situation as "contained" -- not dissimilar from how many U.S. officials labeled the subprime crisis back in 2007. But Greece's crisis has now deeply infected a rapidly multiplying number of sectors.

It is no longer just about the "outer peripheral" economies such as Ireland and Greece, but also the "inner peripheral" ones like Italy and Spain, the banking sector, and balance sheets at the very core of the eurozone -- and worryingly at the European Central Bank (ECB).

Interest rates on Italian government debt are at alarming levels, despite visible buying by the ECB. Banks are having difficulties convincing other private institutions to lend them money. And the ECB's balance sheet is increasingly burdened, fueling internal divisions and turning this critical institution from being part of the solution to a part of the problem.

As in the fall of 2008, virtually no country will be spared if continued policy incoherence leads -- as it inevitably will -- to a recession in Europe, dysfunctional financial markets, and bank failures. When policymakers convened at the IMF/World Bank meetings three years ago to contend with this situation, they at least had a road map of sorts: a bold bank recapitalization plan that Britain brought to the meetings and that served as a catalyst for common analysis and joint policy actions.

This year, it seems that policymakers will have no such luck. The international community lacks an effective policy coordinator. Indeed, it does not even share a common analysis of what ails the global economy. And the sense of shared responsibility has fallen victim to bickering and finger-pointing.

LOUISA GOULIAMAKI/AFP/Getty Images

 

Mohamed A. El-Erian is CEO and co-chief investment officer of investment management firm Pimco and author of When Markets Collide.

MITTAL

10:06 PM ET

September 22, 2011

Don't Worry America India will save you

We Indians are all natural smart Techie gurus, of course.

We come to America to take all high tech jobs at 1/3 wages

We sell our hut in Bombay for one thousand ruppe, and trade one ruppe for one yankee dollar, before US dollar sunk even further

We buy foreclosed American house for one thousand dollars.

Say thank you all to India

We hired unemployeed American to clean house and yard work.

Say thank you all again to India

World economic problems solved.

 

JOHNDETLEFS

1:38 AM ET

September 23, 2011

It does affect everyone...

I'm in Australia, and it's true that this spreads like a contagion. Our money markets go crazy every time there is even a rumour that Europe and the US are going through tough times.

We're a small economy in comparison and we get hammered every time!

 

ZAOTAR

6:29 PM ET

September 23, 2011

Paying More Money Just Won't Work

The problem with El-Erian's ideas is that they require a source of money from ... from where? Give more money to the banks to shore up their capital reserves. Spend more to stimulate the economy. Where does that money come from? The banks and the sovereign governments have no money left. So where, again, does the money come from? The private sector? Does the private sector look like it's about to fill that need? And isn't the point of this article that we should have a coordinated public-sector response?

El-Erian does have two decent broad recommendations, to narrow the eurozone integration level and to reform state economies. But those are (a) easy to say, very hard to do; and (b) likely to have extremely limited effect, particularly in the short run. They are in no way crisis containment vehicles.

The only conceivable source of funding the expenditures he is talking about is for central banks to just print money. That may be what the US does. But Europe can't do it, unless the monetary unity is ended among the EU members. I think El-Erian hints at that, but he knows it is catastrophic, so he doesn't say so overtly.

Ultimately, these are pie-in-the-sky recommendations, and the fact that they are being made in serious form is a grim reminder that central economic authorities have simply run out of viable options. The economy is beyond rational control -- that's the simple truth, ugly as it may be.

 

URGELT

6:47 AM ET

September 28, 2011

Aburdities and Corruption

Let's face facts. The bank bailout was unprecedented in industrial times. The notion that taxpayers should recapitalize banks which have acted recklessly, encouraging moral hazard, flew through the industrialized nations like a wildfire and larded up national debts overnight. Without strings! Why?

Because these same banks are such aggressive contributors to political campaigns, that's why. Letting them fail, or even requiring serious reforms, was unthinkable; it would interrupt the gravy train.

American citizens overwhelmingly disapproved. It did not stop the bailout.

We have a legal mechanism to follow when a private banking institution fails: seize the bank, fire the managers, unwind bad investments, require investors to take a bath, stand up one or more smaller, solvent banks. We didn't follow it. We didn't even *talk* about following it. Why not?

Now the banking crisis has morphed into a national debt crisis, which has in turn morphed back into a banking crisis, and we still aren't permitted to discuss real solutions.

Investment banking (gambling) and commercial banking (where your deposits are managed) and brokerage operations can not be co-mingled without moral hazard. Yet we can't even *talk* about reinstating Glass-Steagall. It never even shows up in mainstream commentary like this article. Why not?

Collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) are insurance: if my investment fails, the insurer pays. There are laws on the books about how to run an insurance business, complete with capitalization and reserves rules. Yet we let CDOs avoid these rules - still! After bailing out AIG to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars of taxpayer money, we're still not requiring CDOs to be treated legally as insurance. Capitalization and reserves rules still aren't applied. Why not? And why don't we hear mainstream media talking about this?

You know what's shaking apart the world's financial infrastructure? I'll tell you. It's the disintegration of trust. Nobody can trust anyone, because the system has become completely corrupted to preserve the wealth and privileges of the few at the top. There's no honesty, there's no transparency. Now it's not just banks that are lurching along deep in the red. It's nations!

Mainstream media is losing trust, too, because it refuses to speak honestly about what went wrong. Where are the calls for criminal prosecution of bank managers who bundled subprime junk mortages as AAA securities? That's fraud, folks! But you have to go to Rolling Stone or other fringe outlets to hear the word spoken. Mainstream media won't bring that up.

Be ashamed, Slate and Washington Post Company. You are part of a very big problem, and your refusal to come to grips with reality is helping to drive us down into the dirt.

 

CORTES

6:52 PM ET

October 15, 2011

 

YARINSIZ

7:07 PM ET

October 18, 2011

The only conceivable source

The only conceivable source of funding the expenditures he is talking about is for central banks to just print money. seslichat That may be what the US does. But Europe can't do it, unless the monetary unity is ended among the EU members. I think El-Erian hints at that, but he knows it is catastrophic, so he doesn't say so overtly.