Is Syrian Civil War a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy?

A revolution that began peacefully is turning to weapons in self-defense. Can all-out bloodshed be stopped? 

BY ROBIN YASSIN-KASSAB | SEPTEMBER 29, 2011

From the start of the Syrian revolution, the Assad regime's media have portrayed the overwhelmingly peaceful grassroots protest movement as a foreign-backed military assault. Its preferred catchall term to describe the tens of thousands of patriots it has kidnapped and tortured, as well as the thousands it has murdered, is "armed gangs." Despite a series of televised "confessions," the regime has not provided any serious proof of the supposed American-French-Qaeda-Israeli-Saudi-Qatari plot against the homeland. Nor has it explained the evident contradictions between its narrative and the thousands of YouTube videos and eyewitness accounts of security forces shooting rifles and artillery straight into unarmed crowds.

Of course it hasn't. Yet its propaganda is taken seriously by Russian and Chinese state media, certain infantile leftists, and a vaguely prominent American academic.

Tragically, the propaganda is also taken seriously by members of Syria's minority sects -- not by all of them by any stretch, but perhaps by a majority. It's tragic because perceived minority support for this sadistic regime will inevitably tarnish intersectarian relations in Syria in the future.

Those Sunni Syrians who are (understandably) enraged by the minorities' siding with the dictatorship should remember first that many Alawis and Christians, as well as many more Druze and Ismailis, have joined the revolution and that many have paid the price. Second, Sunnis should remember that Alawis and Christians have good reason to fear change, if not to believe the propaganda.

Alawis have a complex, esoteric religion that throughout history has been savagely denounced, and its adherents savagely oppressed. Ultimately it's a matter of political interpretation whether or not Alawis are to be considered Muslims. The Ottoman Empire didn't even consider them "People of the Book," which meant that unlike Christians, Jews, and mainstream Shiites, Alawis didn't enjoy any legal rights. The ravings of the influential medieval scholar Ibn Taymiyya (who thought Alawis were "greater disbelievers than the Jews, Christians, and Indian idol-worshipping Brahmans") contributed to their oppression and justified the theft of their lands around Aleppo and their forced retreat into the mountains. Until the 1920s, the Alawis were stuck in those mountains. Antakya (Antioch) was the only city where Alawis lived with Sunnis, and Antakya was gifted by France to Turkey before the independence of the modern Syrian state.

Most Alawis today are not particularly religious. Far from pushing Alawi tenets on the general populace, the Assads discouraged the study of the faith and repressed the traditional Alawi clerics. As a result, if individual Alawis do turn to religion, most tend to practice Sunni or mainstream Shiite rituals.

Of course, as far as the business of state is concerned, it should be entirely irrelevant whether or not Alawis are Muslims or even People of the Book. As Syrian citizens they should be guaranteed the same rights and the same access to political office as anyone else. It would help a great deal if revolutionary leaders and Sunni clerics were to state this as clearly and as often as possible. The blatant anti-Alawi sectarianism of Sheikh Adnan al-Arour (given prominence by Saudi Arabia) and Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi (given prominence by Al Jazeera), both supposed friends of the revolution, does not help at all. Speaking to "those [Alawis] who stood against us," Arour recently promised, "I swear by God we will mince them in grinders and feed their flesh to the dogs."

The one thing the regime has done intelligently in the last six months is to play on minorities' fears. I know that prominent Alawis have been receiving threatening phone calls from unknown numbers, ostensibly from "Sunnis" but almost certainly from the mukhabarat. (How would street-level Sunnis get hold of the phone numbers, and why would they want to make such threats when the committees coordinating the protests are stressing the importance of avoiding sectarianism?)

The minorities -- and not only the minorities -- also fear the fate of Iraq and Lebanon. When Saddam Hussein fell in Iraq, the Sunni community as a whole was blamed for the crimes of the whiskey-quaffing dictator. The Sunnis then gave shelter to Wahhabi nihilists who bombed Shiite civilians and drove a large chunk of the Christian community into Syria. So will all Alawis be blamed for the Assads? Will they be returned to their pre-1920s status? Will Christians lose Syria, the one place in the Arab world where they have prospered and practiced their faith unmolested?

These fears are understandable but misplaced. The French established Lebanon as a sectarian state with a sectarian constitution. In the Lebanese context, therefore, sectarian identity immediately and inevitably slides into political identity. And a massive influx of Palestinian refugees was the catalyst for its last civil war. In Iraq, where a third of marriages before 2003 were cross-sect, the catalyst was American occupation. The different communities responded differently to the U.S. presence and then regarded each other as traitors. Worse, the Americans sent Shiite and Kurdish militias to pacify restive Sunni areas, which brought a predictable response. In Syria, it's the regime that plays the American role, arming Alawi villagers to attack Sunni cities.

Those Christians and Alawis who still support Assad should have more faith in the Syrian people and Syria's future. They should recognize that this regime is finished, sooner or later, now that Europe, the Arabs, and Turkey are against it, now that even schoolchildren are rising. The one sure way to ensure minority rights is for minorities to enter the revolution and fight for their vision of the future. It is not dignified to support, actively or passively, a regime that commits massive and repeated atrocities -- such as the recent dismemberment of Zainab al-Hosni, a wanted activist's 18-year-old sister. It is possible to join the revolution, or at least to desist from slandering it, and at the same time express legitimate fears of what the future may hold.

Beyond fear, some oppose the revolution out of crude Islamophobia. It's a mistake to assume that only the majority community is guilty of prejudice. A medical student I know once rented a room from Christians in Aleppo -- until they discovered she was a Muslim. "We like you very much," they told her, "but what would the neighbors say?" Too many Syrians, like too many Westerners, assume a murderous agenda lurks behind every beard and headscarf. These people should get out of their privileged neighborhoods more often and talk to a wider circle.

Syrian sectarianism is not inevitable. The other pole of Syrian life is almost universal pride in the country's diversity and the ancient, urbane cosmopolitanism that is far more deeply rooted than current Salafi fashions. Alawis and Christians reached prominent positions long before anyone had ever heard of the Assads. And why have Arabs become so much more tribally religious in recent decades? One reason must be the general social stagnation and failure born of dictatorship. The revolution, so far at least, has set a different discourse in motion. The protesters chant, "The Syrian People Are One." At the demonstrations, religious Sunnis, secularists, Alawis, and leftists recognize themselves in each other's eyes. This is a new phenomenon, and one to be encouraged.

The two scenarios that most terrify the minorities (and almost everyone else) are, first, the rise of intolerant Islamism, and, second, sectarian civil war. Unfortunately, both scenarios become more likely with every moment the regime remains in power. The experience of being shot at, besieged, and tortured will inevitably drive some toward more extreme views. In addition, the military units slaughtering the people are overwhelmingly Alawi and commanded by Alawis. The regime's shabiha militias in Hama, Homs, and Latakia are Alawis recruited from the surrounding villages. These are the people torturing Sunni women and children to death, burning shops and cars, beating and humiliating old men. Their actions will have consequences. If the regime falls soon, the consequences will be legal and targeted solely at the guilty. If the regime doesn't fall soon, the consequences may be violent, generalized vigilante "justice." Then Iraq and Lebanon will become Syria's models.

Syria is now a pre-civil war environment. More defectors are joining the Free Syrian Army, which has announced several engagements with regime forces in defense of unarmed civilians. Armed groups like the Khaled bin al-Walid Battalion and the Ali bin Abi Taleb Battalion have declared their existence. These forces are relatively strong in Idlib province's Jabal al-Zawiya and in the towns around Homs.

The Syrian National Council, the Local Coordination Committees, and like-minded protest organizers are sticking to their nonviolent line. Their argument is logical: Violent resistance would offer the regime an excuse for greater massacres, and the opposition would be vastly outgunned. Yet after six months of suffering, the weaponization of the revolution begins to look unstoppable. Many have realized that the regime will refuse to abdicate unless it is physically forced to do so, even at the cost of destroying the country. In this context it seems wisest for principled democrats to cooperate with the Free Syrian Army to ensure that all armed men are under central, nonsectarian command. Otherwise the regime's "armed gangs" propaganda may become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Robin Yassin-Kassab is author of the novel The Road from Damascus. He co-edits the forthcoming quarterly magazine The Critical Muslim, as well as pulsemedia.org, and blogs at qunfuz.com.

ANDREI PUNGOVSCHI/AFP/Getty Images

 SUBJECTS:
 

Robin Yassin-Kassab is the author of  The Road from Damascus

KAREEM SHARAF

5:02 PM ET

September 29, 2011

But

But what do you do with the traumas the Alawites are causing right now? Obviously, not all of the minority group is participating in removing Sunni's skins but the ones doing so are invariably Alawites. No one can help seeing these videos and the way they are humiliating these people, mocking their rituals, violating their women, tearing down their houses, setting alight their cattle, and forcing them to sat that "There is no God but Bashar" "There is no God but Maher", and not explode with anger. Visit some of their websites and you take a look for yourself at the racial slurs and obscenities they are using against Sunnis. The Alawites have thrown their support behind Assad and they will have to accept the consequences.

Because my property is not damaged, my family is safe, and that the regime has not been able to get to me, I can think strategically and say that there would need to be a transitional justice process in place to ensure that these beasts are brought to justice for their heinous crimes. Sunnis will need to show an unprecedented level of mercy and forgiveness toward the Alawites once this is over. Retaliating with violence will plunge the country into chaos. But the challenge of a "Truth and Reconciliation Committee" will be formidable. I might have different opinions if my sister were decapitated and my child's sexual organs were chopped off for taking part in a peaceful protest. Although Alawites had been marginalized throughout the history of Syria and despite the 'structural violence' no organized violence has ever taken place against them. There is not a single instance in our history when their villages were assaulted and destroyed. They have been in power for four decades and loot at what they have done. We were better off when they were in the mountains. As for Arour, I never heard him but urge protesters to be peaceful. If he really had said such a thing, I am sure he would be referring to the ones responsible for the crackdown; the diehard Assad loyalists of the Fourth Division that are bringing mosques down in Rastan as I am typing these words. About those, I have exactly the same opinion.

 

CANADIANSYRIAN

9:44 PM ET

September 29, 2011

Thank you , you saved me from

Thank you , you saved me from writing what i was going to write .
thanks to FP for putting the Syrian revolution on the map.

 

CANADIANSYRIAN

8:50 PM ET

September 29, 2011

what else.

The biggest thug , butcher Family Al Assads used the poor Alawis minority ( 11% ) for 40 years to do their dirty work and enrich themselfs while the poor Alawi go kills sunnis , That was for 40 YEARS , so you know how many Alawis have blood on their hands .
A civil war ? It all depends on a military / NATO intervention , if there is intervention , the majority of the Alawis would not fight and would give up on the Assads and the 1000 Alawis or so who have and had committed crimes against the majority sunnis.
after the intervention and when the dust is settled the Alawis would have to accept the new reality on the ground and not fight , unlike the minority Iraqi sunnis the Alawis lives at the coast surrounded by the Sunnis .
If there is no intervention the Sunnis and Alawis will go after eachother`s throats and at the end there will be an intervention to stop the slaughter.
so , stay toned.

 

SAM90

10:02 AM ET

September 30, 2011

Ignorant propaganda

This 'article' actually me cringe after the first few lines, I feel slightly sick having read it in it's entirety.

The opposition does contain armed elements. that was always the case. The regime is not lying when it claims there are armed gangs, in accepting that the regime has used extreme violence one has to acknowledge that the oppositon are no better. There have been videos of rabid 'peaceful demonstrators' throwing dead bodies into rivers while they chant 'Allah hu Akbar.' Their actions are obviously motivated by reglion and the desire to purge Syria of Alawites and Christians. They don't want democracy, they want Sunni supremacy.

If the regime falls now the minorities would be doomed, if it had fallen two months ago the case would have been the same. Pathetic lies and propaganda don't change that fact. Sunni Arabs will never tolerate minorities, that has been proven, invariably, all over the Arab world. They are backward, violent and there is no low to which they cannot stoop. The Assad regime allowed Chirstians and other demographics to practice their faith and exist free from harrassment and humiliation. If the Sunnis take over that situation will come to an abrupt end.

It's very unpleasant to see a lying propagandist portraying the stone age Jihadsists seeking to topple Assad as pluralistic democrats with a philosophy of non violence. They are the opposite and every with any knowledge oif the situation knows that.

It's great to see the Alawis standing up for themselves.

 

CANADIANSYRIAN

4:02 PM ET

September 30, 2011

LOL , LOL , LOL .

" it`s great to see the Alawis standing up for themselves".
As we see , here on FP you would write that, but , I`m sure what you really meant is :
Lets ( we Alawis ) kill 5 million Syrian Sunnis so we would stand for ourselves for another 40 years of persecuting the 80% Sunnis.
as any minority in power , they would say all the thing you wrote , what else can you say ?
Love It when Shabbih (media branch) like you comment the way you all do , you forgot to say like the rest of the Alawis , that Assad is loved by 95% , what happend to the 98% ?
Keep the good work .
ps , isnt Assad`s Alawi friends with the Terorist Hizballa and the ISLAMIC state of Iran ? both Muslems shiaa jihadist ?.

 

CANADIANSYRIAN

8:22 PM ET

October 1, 2011

ignorant propaganda

why dont you and Assad let the MEDIA in ?
or you and Assad are scared ?
oh I forgot , you only trust Hizballa`s Manar and Iran`s tv press ( they are both say ALLA HU AKBER TOO ), hah,,,

 

MODERATEWINGER

3:14 PM ET

September 30, 2011

Getting rid of Assad by any

Getting rid of Assad by any means necessary, short of actual US troop involvement should be a top priority. This thug, (yes I am being kind), butchers his own people for the fun of it. The piece of vermin will crack as soon as pressure is asserted on his allies and his power base, just like Mubarak. It's way past time to get rid of this dictator once and for good!!

 

SAM90

5:28 AM ET

October 1, 2011

LOL

There is nothing moderate about your ignorance. You whinge about Assad like a jaunted little girl but you make no mention of what would replace him. Do you think a Sunni Islamist regime wouldf be better? No, it would be ten times worse and it would certainly be antithetical to US interests, not to mention those of sane Syrians.

Comparing Assad to Mubarak is like comparing chalk and cheese, such an amateurish comparison to make. The similarities between the two situations are non-existent.

 

CANADIANSYRIAN

1:59 PM ET

October 1, 2011

sam99 or 90

your calling him ignorant eh ?
Mubarak was an angle when comparing him to the Butcher ( and i`m being nice ) Assad.
I think Satan himself would be insulted if you call Assad , Satan.
40 flipping years of one thug Family , 40 years of one sect (11%).
if it were not for the majority Syrian Sunni`s tolorance towards minorities , your Assad`s Alawis minority would have never ruled Syria , the Sunnis leave anybody out side power.
where were the Alawis " protecting " the minority before Assad ?
All Syrians would rather have SATAN himself rule instead of your APARTHEID NUSAYRI rule.
Bring Satan the blue or Satan the red and the Syrian would be Glad .
Do me a favor and read the UN report about Syria under 40 years of the Assads.
Syria always 160 or 165 of all countries of the world.
Pathatic....

 

TOBI1

1:35 PM ET

October 18, 2011

I'm absolutly with you on

I'm absolutly with you on this one. It is time to get rid of Assad, but question is, what are we facing next? who's gonna take charge? How would that affect the middle east?

 

BAHER

4:46 PM ET

October 3, 2011

Bas

Well the writer says that there is no evidence of (American-French-Qaeda-Israeli-Saudi-Qatari ) conspiracy on Syria forgetting the American interfering in Syrian interior problems through its ambassador and other officials plus the economical and political sanctions applied on Syria, the same to speak about France and its hysteric persist to get a resolution in the UNSC against Syria and prepare the way to repeat the scenario of Libya
As for Qaeda I believe that Al-zawahre appeared on its exclusive TV Aljazeera to threaten Syria and Syrians and to announce that Assad is not a legitimate president!!!well identical position between secretary of state and head of Al Qaeda impressive!!
Aljazeera TV is using all allowed and not allowed weapons against Syrian state, army and leadership and this TV is owned by Hamad who does not have even the a trace of political life in its island
Alarabiya is the second to Aljazeera to spread videos of 10 seconds demonstrations unknown places and faces shows the unbelievable about Syrian army and security forces on which any tow armatures with a mobile phone can make hundreds of them daily on the proper price and lets not forget Alarabiya is Saudi where women are lashed for driving a car!!
Finally Israel who had almost lost Mubarak and wants balance its situation by pressing on Syria to move away from the resistance and forget about occupied Golan and leave the Palestinians alone no problem if they said noting about the situation in Syria its up to there (American-French-Qaeda--Saudi-Qatari ) allies to speak.
The problem in Syria is between secular state and theocratic state the Baath Party rule is not the best and we suffered a lot from the dominance of one party over the political life in Syria but at least we and our children and women moved fearlessly all around Syria.
As for the so called Alawites control or the matter that the president is from the Alawites is just nonsense because there no difference between the towns and cities where Alawites are majority and those where they are not I mean by the development and prosperity of these cities and besides prime minister, most of the ministers, directors…. Are non Alawites
I did not hear about any threatening phone calls but I had heard about the killing of innocent people and security forces and national army members by gangs and terrorists and extremists.
By the way the Sunnis in Syria are much more moderate than the other Sunnis , I live in Lattakia all kind of good relations exist in the city between the inhabitants of all groups no matter Sunni, Alawites or Christian, Turk, Armenian, Kurd… so stop using the religion as a fuel for a war you want to ignite.
Anyway some silly full of hatred creature around the place consider that anyone who does not believe the lies and video garbage of Aljazeera and its distribution of ignorance and extremism, this creature consider the other one as a " Shabbih (media branch)" very clever is not it!?

 

DEBTDUE

5:47 PM ET

October 16, 2011

Down with Assad

This family is made up of a bunch of thugs...they are no good and corrupt and I am glad that the majority are rising up against him and his brutality. Regardless of who or what you support, the brutality that he has set upon the innocent civilians in his country is downright horrendous and he should be punished for his crimes against humanity. My hear goes out to the people in Syria who are living in constant fear and still peacefully protesting against this monster. It is time for a change and although it may not be an easy transition, it is a necessary one. Assad has run this country corruptly and kept the spoils to himself and his family. Thankfully in the digital age he cannot hide anymore and the people are rising up against it....keep up the faith and let the Assad family crumble into debt collection and never again kill an innocent person. These types of brutal dictatorships are on their last legs and it is time that the world lives free from the terrors that Assad has committed.

 

YARINSIZ

3:16 PM ET

October 25, 2011

If the regime falls now the

If the regime falls now the minorities would be doomed, if it had fallen two months ago the case would have been the same. Pathetic lies and propaganda don't change that fact. Sunni Arabs will never tolerate minorities, that has been proven, invariably, all over the Arab world. They are backward, violent and there is no low to seslichat which they cannot stoop. The Assad regime allowed Chirstians and other demographics to practice their faith and exist free from harrassment and humiliation. If the Sunnis take over that situation will come to an abrupt end.

 

SARAHZ

7:09 AM ET

October 26, 2011

its pay time

There is no doubt that this person should pay for his horrible crimes. Crimes that involved many lives of innocent people who lived in fear all his reign. It is about time that he and his accomplices (his family) who have lived in greed for power, money and manipulating what is wrong to be right, should pay for every single life that they spoiled. Syrians, although in fear, should take this as a good starting transition, and hope for the betterment of the country. Let the Assad family pay for every single coin and fly that they corrupted, and live in fear, just like how they did to the people of Syria.