
You probably didn't notice the most recent debate among the républicains. It was spirited but courteous; it focused relentlessly on the economy; it clarified differences -- and it further consolidated the apparently invincible lead of François Hollande.
Monsieur Hollande is, of course, the front-runner in the race among France's Socialists to challenge Nicolas Sarkozy in the presidential race next year. Among Hollande's chief rivals is Ségolène Royal, whom Sarkozy trounced last time around, and who soon thereafter separated from Hollande, her partner -- though not spouse -- of 30 years. French politics are more solemn than the American version, but also sexier.
But the most remarkable thing about the debate, held on Wednesday, Sept. 28, is that it occurred at all. French parties have traditionally chosen presidential candidates through ballots among activists, making nomination an essentially private affair. No longer: This year, anyone who claims to subscribe to the principles of the Parti Socialiste can vote; and for the first time ever, the candidates have put themselves on public parade. Although Sarko has always advertised himself as the Disney-loving, American-style candidate, it is the Socialists who, despite their horror of capitalist vulgarity, have adopted the American system, complete with debate coaches, polls, and spin. And it has proved to be a brilliant move on their part.
The other day, Le Monde ran a post-debate analysis that any close reader of American political news would have found bewildering. The point of the piece was that the magisterial contempt with which leaders in the UMP, Sarko's party, had been treating this innovation had collapsed in the face of reality. That was interesting; but what was amazing was that UMP officials were quoted by name admitting that they had been bested. "It was a lovely democratic exercise," said one UMP deputy. "It gives a good image. We would do well to be inspired by it ourselves." Another noted that because each of the six candidates offered slightly different policy prescriptions, voters on the left could all find something to identify with -- "and this risks staying in their head even when there's only one remaining candidate." Haven't those UMP officials ever heard of "off the record"?
For those of us who have already gotten bored with the interminable GOP debates, it's touching to be reminded of the merits that others, with their fresher eyes, see in the process. The French seem slightly dazzled by their brave new populist world. I listened to a TV interview show that urgently asked, "Who are the men of the shadows?" -- the gurus, the advisors, the coaches. In the United States, of course, these figures are celebrities in their own right; the Sunday talk shows couldn't exist without them. And polls! Hollande's rivals have objected to the polls, which find him securely in the lead, because it's almost impossible to determine in advance if any given respondent will actually participate in the party ballot.
This was a race that Dominique Strauss-Kahn was, of course, supposed to win in a cakewalk. I always believed that a chief reason for the left's outrage at the sexual-assault accusations lodged against DSK, as well as at his alleged manhandling by the Manhattan district attorney, was that the party's hopes of winning in 2012 so completely hinged on him. But that's already a memory. It is Sarko now who is being sunk by scandal (see Eric Pape's "Is Sarkozy Fini?"), while the left has been buoyed by its embrace of openness. "There is a mood of hope in the left, and I think we're really post-DSK now," says Justin Vaïsse, a Brookings Institution analyst. A senior diplomat and scholar says that the debates have proved "quite refreshing and have been perceived in that way by observers, and it makes UMP, divided by infighting but compelled to support one candidate, look a bit old-fashioned."
This project of refurbishment also has an amusing François-Ségo subtext. Royal ran in 2007 on the premise that French voters had grown disgusted with the pomposities of the grand discours -- the high-flown policy declamations that define French politics at the national level -- and instead craved a politics of family values and home truths. She wound up sounding slightly weird, and not altogether real, and Sarko ate her lunch in the debates. The erudite, articulate Hollande is a traditional politician of the left -- so much so that he was having an affair with a political journalist, which is why Royal kicked him out of the house -- and now he has thoroughly supplanted his ex-partner. Hollande is the future, Royal the past. I'm told that so far they have kept a careful distance from one another.
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