BY DANIEL BLUMENTHAL | OCTOBER 3, 2011

Unicorns are beautiful, make-believe creatures. But despite overwhelming evidence of their fantastical nature, many people still believe in them. Much of America's China policy is also underpinned by belief in the fantastical: in this case, soothing but logically inconsistent ideas. But unlike with unicorns, the United States' China-policy excursions into the realm of make-believe could be dangerous. Crafting a better China policy requires us to identify what is imaginary in U.S. thinking about China. Author James Mann captures some in his book, The China Fantasy.

Here are my own top 10 China-policy unicorns:

1. The self-fulfilling prophecy. This is the argument that has the most purchase over the United States' China policy. Treat China like an enemy, the belief goes, and it will become an enemy. Conversely, treat China like a friend, and it will become a friend. But three decades of U.S.-China relations should at least cast doubt on this belief. Since the normalization of relations with China, the aim of U.S. policy has been to bring China "into the family of nations." Other than China itself, no nation has done more than the United States to improve the lot of the Chinese people and welcome China's rise peacefully. And, rather than increase its deterrence of China -- a natural move given the uncertainty attendant to the rise of any great power -- the United States has let its Pacific forces erode and will do so further. The United States may soon go through its third round of defense cuts in as many years. Here is just one example of how unserious the United States is about China: As China continues to build up its strategic forces, the United States has signed a deal with Russia to cap its strategic forces without so much as mentioning China. Unless Beijing was insulted by this neglect, surely it could take great comfort in an anachronistic U.S. focus on arms control with Russia. But despite U.S. demonstrations of benevolence, China still views the United States as its enemy or, on better days, its rival. Its military programs are designed to fight the United States. The self-fulfilling prophecy is far and away the most fantastical claim about China policy and thus the No. 1 unicorn.

YangShiZhonh -China Daily/AFP/Getty Images

 

Daniel Blumenthal is a current commissioner and former vice chairman of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. He writes for Foreign Policy's Shadow Government blog.

MYSTIKIEL

9:17 PM ET

October 3, 2011

My favourite part was this tidbit

"The United States also has big problems. But Americans are debating them vigorously, know what they are, and are now looking to elect the leaders to fix them."

Hardy har har.

Man, that China is seriously screwed if its got a public debt to GDP ratio of 80%. Imagine having a debt that high. Which reminds me, how high is US public debt again?

 

MIDDLE EAST WATCHER

6:58 PM ET

October 4, 2011

har har indeed

but, you left out the real gem:

"The United States also has big problems. But Americans are debating them vigorously, know what they are, and are now looking to elect the leaders to fix them."

this is the clincher:

"China's political structure does not yet allow for fixing big problems."

Taken a look at Capitol Hill recently? Congress scuppering govt policy, fiscal policy, and creating foreign policy on the fly?

That cracked me up. Really it did.

 

GODFREE

9:32 PM ET

October 3, 2011

TOP TEN DUMBEST ARTICLES ABOUT CHINA

This one certainly belongs in the pantheon of lazy, dim-witted lists. The moreso because it appears in a prestigious journal, FP.
The unproven, negative assertions and outdated stereotypes pretty much summarize the past 60 years of Western nonsense about China.
Hell, they go back further than that! In the author's sequel we'll no doubt hear about "Johnny Chinaman" and the well-known "Yellow Peril".
Mr. Blumenthal is paid to create threats that our foreign policy (I.e., defense-industrial complex) can respond to with cries for more funds. This is a long-honored profession which is contributing to our national bankruptcy and utter ruin. Let us eschew such nonsense before we as a ntion disappear down history's drain hole.

 

DANADAMS

2:06 PM ET

October 4, 2011

Agree. I don't know where to

Agree. I don't know where to start but if I wanted to write a book I suppose I have to come up with a slight but very polemic book. Only #8 and #9 are ok.

 

MANDREWSF

12:09 AM ET

October 4, 2011

Yawn

Because I can't find a better way to express my indifference.
Remeber Yogi Berra's words: "Its hard to make predictions, especially about the future."

 

NICOLAS19

1:48 AM ET

October 4, 2011

new lows

Wow, and I hoped that these idiotic, self-serving lists have come to and end. Old stereotypes, big lies, hypocrisy and hate-mongering, you are no better than any Chinese censor-officer. Money quote:
"But despite U.S. demonstrations of benevolence, China still views the United States as its enemy or, on better days, its rival" - excuse me? You are writing, portraying China as an evil empire, yet talk about your own benevolence for those sorry Chinese? Ahem.

 

DARREN ROGERS

2:54 AM ET

October 4, 2011

Simply Crazy

I thought China and the neocon were friends now. What has happened?

if online help would be the way, I don't thing it is doing anything, although my chinese friends site is not helping yet in any way.

 

PUBLICUS

4:36 AM ET

October 4, 2011

China hates the United States

Do you who make your pro-Beijing posts know the fenqing? (Google "fenqing" which are China's 21st century KKK)

Apparently you don't know that domestically the CCP propagandizes the Chinese sheeple every day against the United States. The Chinese sheeple from birth are propagandized to hate the United States. The Chinese get it in school, on TV, in books - from everywhere.

The Chinese blame the United States for everything from earthquakes (weather warfare) to inflation to the Falun Gong and anything else that comes along in China. To the Chinese sheeple, there's nothing wrong with China per se, or in China per se. All problems in China are caused by the United States. The Chinese never tire of their thousands year old thesis that the Chinese are innocent victims of the world of hostile outside foreign devils.

Simultaneously, the Chinese are the Middle Kingdom and presently are arming themselves to prove it. Beijing believes it can defeat the United States while avoiding any nuclear explosions. Beijing believes it can destroy all US satellites whether government or privately owned, cripple the US by cyber attacks and destroy the US Navy on the high seas. These people believe with absolute certainty they deserve to rule the world simply because they are the Chinese.

Grow up and learn something about China and the Chinese, the people behind the Great Wall.

 

BRAVEHEARTNJU

1:24 PM ET

October 4, 2011

Dear Publicus

you mentioned ' To the Chinese sheeple, there's nothing wrong with China per se, or in China per se. All problems in China are caused by the United States. '

this makes me laugh, you are far beyond the writer of this article. Yes, you are right (only partly), in China, only a very small portion of Chinese people that blamed US caused the problems in China, and I think more US politicians do the same thing. However, most of Chinese people discuss domestic problems and they make comparisons between China and US and learn US as a good example and find how to improve China herself. If you live in China, you will find many people praise US as a very good example(despite some tensions between the two).

Only a loser's mind tries to depict his competitor (in some ways) as evil as possible. So, please be a man and strength your mind.

 

BILL888

1:32 PM ET

October 6, 2011

China is friend with US

Did you copy and paste your comments from other columns?

 

PUBLICUS

6:08 AM ET

October 12, 2011

@BRAVEHEARTNJU

You make a typical post. You tell me I don't know everyday life in China and to learn something of it. You presume wrongly.

I've been living and working in the CCP-PRC since January 2008. I know the Chinese blame the United States for everything from the weather to inflation to Facebook. Facebook is blocked in China because, according to the CCP Boyz in Beijing, "[T]he United States uses Facebook to cause trouble in China." They're damned right we would if we could, and deservingly so to the CCP, but we can't because when one tries to access Facebook the word "PROHIBITED" appears in capitalized bold face type on an otherwise blank page. There's just nothing sublte about fascist dictators.

Yet even without FB which is "PROHIBITED" in the PRC, the Boyz in Beijing manage to blame the United States every day for everything wrong with China, in China. The Chinese sheeple believe Beijing's lies. Read Orwell's 1984 to get the flavor of the PRC.

The PRC is a dull and lifeless place which is barren of culture or civilization. This is typical and predictable of communist dictatorships. I'm happy to be on my way out of the place after almost 4 years. Just ask any of the more than 1 billion 'innocent' victims among the ever so 'innocent' and 'persecuted' Chinese sheeple: There's nothing wrong with China that getting rid of the United States (and Japan) wouldn't fix.

Ha ha, you make me laugh.

 

FRISBEETARIAN

8:34 AM ET

October 4, 2011

ROFL this guy actually thinks

ROFL this guy actually thinks that the United States is out for the betterment of the world.

 

AUSSIEVIEWSNEWS

9:46 AM ET

October 4, 2011

Top 10 Unicorns

If this is comedy its good.
If this is reality its a unicorn.
If this is a unicorn its imaginary.

 

BRAVEHEARTNJU

12:11 PM ET

October 4, 2011

very sad

I see more unicorn fantasies in this article :P, so many predictions in this article with so much assertory, however, any realistic policy researcher would not speak in this way.

 

CLAYMC

4:07 PM ET

October 4, 2011

China and Manufacturing

This is the argument that has the most purchase over the United States' China policy. Treat China like an enemy, the belief goes, and it will become an enemy. Conversely, treat China like a friend, and it will become a friend. They create a lot of prom dress and evening gowns for a lot of US companies

 

DRENAGEM11

4:39 PM ET

October 4, 2011

Simply Crazy

yea, i Agree in I thought China and the neocon were friends now. What has happened...if online help would be the way, I don't thing it is doing anything, although my chinese friends site is not helping yet in any way. Thanks !
Ar Condicionado Imoveis Acompanhante Massagistas Curso Ar Condicionado

 

TC1

5:02 PM ET

October 4, 2011

U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission

The writer of this article works for a committee funded by, and reporting to, the Congress.

If this is what they report then there seems to be a problem ...

 

MICHAELTURTON

7:35 PM ET

October 4, 2011

The writer of this article....

....knows exactly what he is talking about. The only real error here is his remarks on Afghanistan. And he is also correct in his assertions about China's growth -- if China had not been given access to the US market and to US-allied investment and export opportunities from Taiwan, it would still be impoverished, backward craphole.

It would be great if the criticisms of some here were backed by actual history. One only needs to look around China to see how it will behave -- territorial claims on all its neighbors, a constant flow of military threats, the ramping up of the military threat facing Taiwan even though the government there serves Beijing's interests and relations are good -- some of you should read what China's military and political publications say in Chinese (i.e. when they think nobody is listening). But I ask too much -- that requires the ability to think and read and draw conclusions.

Michael Turton
The View from Taiwan

 

PHILBEST

9:41 PM ET

October 7, 2011

HEAR, HEAR

You SURE said it, and so did this guy below:

ALEXBC

1:19 AM ET

October 5, 2011

"One Of FP's Best"

"You can tell that this article is well-reasoned and intelligently written simply by the sheer number of idiotic, foaming-at-the-mouth responses that it has inspired from FP's reliable brigade of Netizens. They always react to rational criticism of China, no matter how detailed, by resorting to the following rhetorical non-starters:

1) "If China's bad, just look at the US!" - a papered-over form of the age-old, puerile "I know you are, but what I am?!"

2) "This guy is just a racist" - in recent entries on his FP blog, Clyde Prestowitz has eloquently dismantled the pro-China crowd's insistence that all "China-bashing" (and, furthermore, the very term "China-bashing") is just a form of Western arrogance and racial intolerance. This knee-jerk reaction does nothing to engage the argument in logical terms, nor does it account for, say, the highly multicultural and increasingly non-white character of the West, which in terms of diversity is far beyond anything that exists in China.

Keep up the good work, Mr. Blumenthal."

HEAR, HEAR, Alex BC and Michael Turton

 

FLOATINGPOINT

8:04 PM ET

October 4, 2011

At least get your pictures right

What does the picture (on page 5) of Biden striding with Mongolian president have anything to do with America's engaging with China?

On the territorial claims, China has never made new claims besides the heritage it got from the before-1949 KMT government. As a matter of fact, it abandoned a bunch of claims, for instance, Mongolia, and that's why Biden could be seen in a picture with lines of proud Mongolian soldiers behind.

 

PUBLICUS

6:27 AM ET

October 12, 2011

Biden, Beijing & Mongolia

Veep Joe Biden went to Mongolia because it's a thriving democracy and market system which shares a border with the People's Republic of China, which in stark contrast to Mongolia is a fascist one party State-Corporate-Military monstrosity.

Beijing has hundreds of missles across the Taiwan Strait along with cruise missles and amphibious military craft. Beijing refuses to renounce the (capricious) use of force to destroy democracy on Taiwan. The CCP Boyz in Beijing can't stand being surrounded by democracy, what with Mongolia to the North, S Korea and Japan to the East, Taiwan a stone's throw from the Southeast and the Philippines almost directly South. The Chinese hate those dark skinned Indians the other side of the mountains who have their own democracy and traces of British influence (along with Hong Kong).

The CCP in Beijing is in a neighborhood it increasingly dislikes. It's feeling pretty isolated. These facts are true because China is the most reactionary force in the world today.

 

ALEXBC

12:19 AM ET

October 5, 2011

One Of FP's Best

You can tell that this article is well-reasoned and intelligently written simply by the sheer number of idiotic, foaming-at-the-mouth responses that it has inspired from FP's reliable brigade of Netizens. They always react to rational criticism of China, no matter how detailed, by resorting to the following rhetorical non-starters:

1) "If China's bad, just look at the US!" - a papered-over form of the age-old, puerile "I know you are, but what I am?!"

2) "This guy is just a racist" - in recent entries on his FP blog, Clyde Prestowitz has eloquently dismantled the pro-China crowd's insistence that all "China-bashing" (and, furthermore, the very term "China-bashing") is just a form of Western arrogance and racial intolerance. This knee-jerk reaction does nothing to engage the argument in logical terms, nor does it account for, say, the highly multicultural and increasingly non-white character of the West, which in terms of diversity is far beyond anything that exists in China.

Keep up the good work, Mr. Blumenthal.

 

ALEXANDER SCHMIDT

3:29 AM ET

October 5, 2011

china buying the world :D

From a german perspective I would add that the fear about technological and patent "transfer" is the highest one, when it comes to China. I was working in a smaller german biotech company which has manufactured resveratrol and other stuff. After beeing bought by a friendly chinese company the technological leech started very soon.

 

MUSNAUHT

6:10 AM ET

October 5, 2011

The variations that Myths Unicorn...

The variations that Myths Unicorn following through their own policies that an old society turned a man becomes a ghost and then new society turned a devil becomes a human form

 

NJCHIASSON

7:24 PM ET

October 5, 2011

Living in China

I tried to show my girlfriend some web sites about a certain 'artist' and 'tax dodger'. But my web browser kept giving me 404 page not found. So I tried to show her something about a famous tibetan terrorist and also got 404 not found. She asked 'Why do foreigners want to know bad things about China?" The US will come to regret the day we threw Taiwan under the bus....

 

CANUTE

11:02 AM ET

October 7, 2011

Run Away!

My 10 year marriage to a woman who grew up in China just ended. I had some pretty serious issues with her culture. If she is this blind I would run away. Quickly. Before the pain of doing so (or not doing so) gets too great.

 

PUBLICUS

6:32 AM ET

October 12, 2011

Sheeple

It's the sheeple syndrome.

Agreed, the best thing is to get away from it, fast.

 

ORMONDOTVOS

3:05 PM ET

October 7, 2011

Top Unicorn?

T^hat we don't have to worry about the influence of armament makers, the infamous nihilitary-industrial complex, which exists world wide, is destroying our work to improve the world economy and social relations, and for whom the writer obviously works.

I applaud this writer instead:

"Mr. Blumenthal is paid to create threats that our foreign policy (I.e., defense-industrial complex) can respond to with cries for more funds. This is a long-honored profession which is contributing to our national bankruptcy and utter ruin. Let us eschew such nonsense before we as a nation disappear down history's drain hole."

 

ARIELW74

3:27 PM ET

October 7, 2011

wrong picture on Page 5

FP,

Page 5 has a picture of Joe Biden's visit to Mongolia... You'd think FP would realize, especially in an article like this one, how insutling it is to Mongolia to have a picture like this in an article about China -- a completely separate nation with a totally different culture, people, language, etc.

FP -- get it right!!

A concerned reader,

Mr. Ariel Wyckoff

 

JLEMIEN

10:24 AM ET

October 8, 2011

Another opinion

How about an opinion from somebody that has studied and understands China specifically, rather than international relations at a whole: http://www.chinahearsay.com/the-top-ten-unicorns-of-china-policy-my-two-cents/

Anybody that has not lived in China and who cannot use Mandarin Chinese to communicate should be very hesitant and cautious about making any kind of opinions. In the same way that a Kremlinologist would be in a better position than any international relations generalist to understand and to make claims about the U.S.S.R., one can not get a real understanding of China from reading the New York Times and a couple of China-focused books.

 

SASS

8:38 PM ET

October 17, 2011

China VS US

It is so funny to believe that China hated US that much. Too much, that it even banned one social networking site to make use of the Chinese community. Anyway, China may have grinding teeth towards the US and maybe they are really up to something in the future. Nevertheless, haven’t anyone thought of the idea, that most countries that envies the US must be thinking the same way too? One thing that can be certain from the list is that the United States may not need China to solve certain problems. I think the United States wants China to act like fly zapper, to be more helpful, rather than being less helpful.

 

YARINSIZ

8:37 PM ET

October 28, 2011

The Chinese blame the United

The Chinese blame the United States for everything from earthquakes (weather warfare) to inflation to the Falun Gong and anything else that comes along in China. To the Chinese sheeple, there's nothing wrong with China per se, or in China per se. seslichat All problems in China are caused by the United States. The Chinese never tire of their thousands year old thesis that the Chinese are innocent victims of the world of hostile outside foreign devils.

 

PRELIOCIVEDE

3:26 AM ET

November 2, 2011

About 40 years ago my mom

About 40 years ago my mom told me she was having repeated dreams of Red Chinese soldiers invading America. Russia? No worries. My mom is no dummy. I’ve never forgotten what she told me.
Our drones are infected by a virus probably because of the use of microchips imported from China.
Idaho, and other states, are willing to let the Chicoms build independent “economic” zones on OUR LAND?
I’m a large enough person I could throw one of the little bastards a fair piece. But I wouldn’t trust them that far.