The Price of Failure

How much has the collapse of Somalia cost the world? $55 billion -- and here's where it went.

BY JOHN NORRIS, BRONWYN BRUTON | OCTOBER 5, 2011

On the morning of Oct. 4, a truck bomb exploded on a well-trafficked street outside the Ministry of Education in the Somali capital of Mogadishu, killing upwards of 80 bystanders, many of them university students. The attack brought an end to the relative lull that had held in Mogadishu since August, when fighters for the al-Shabab guerrilla forces withdrew from the city, and offered a stark reminder that the world's most notorious failed state remains just that.

Somalia's ruin can't simply be chalked up as a case of Western neglect. For decades, the United States and international organizations have poured money into Somalia despite its relative geopolitical insignificance -- first as a Cold War bulwark, then as a humanitarian emergency, and now as an effort to contain crime and terrorism. Just how much has Somalia cost us? To figure out the true financial burden that Somalia's conflict has imposed on the world since 1991, we used a variety of official and unofficial sources, combined with some educated guesswork, and came up with an estimate of $55 billion. That figure includes everything from aid supplied by the Red Cross and defaulted World Bank loans to naval patrols off Somalia's piracy-plagued coast and CIA-run detention facilities within the country.

$55 billion may be modest in comparison with the cost of the interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan -- which together are likely to end up costing the United States more than $1 trillion, according to the Congressional Budget Office -- but what's remarkable is how little we have to show for it. For all the treasure expended there, Somalia is no closer to stability than it has been at earlier points in its two-plus decades of chaos. The country is currently experiencing the worst famine the world has seen in two decades, with more than three-quarters of a million people at grave risk of starvation, and remains riven by civil conflict, piracy, and extremism.

The world's approach to Somalia has long been trapped in an unhappy middle: It has been insufficiently robust and well-designed to resolve the country's conflicts but far too heavy-handed and frequent to allow the country to resolve its own problems. An entire generation of Somalis now views the "state," whether it is the Transitional Federal Government or al-Shabab, as a largely predatory institution to be feared, not as a source of stability. Perhaps more than anything, the spending on Somalia demonstrates how the world -- and Washington in particular -- keeps groping for quick tactical fixes while failing to embrace the sensible diplomacy and the kinds of patient engagement that might help Somalia achieve peace.

Humanitarian and development aid: $13 billion

Somalia's tilt into chaos has been first and foremost an enormous human tragedy. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and relief agency data, between 450,000 and 1.5 million Somalis have died due to the turmoil since 1991, more than 800,000 have fled as refugees, and another 1.5 million are internally displaced. One in four Somalis is either displaced or a refugee. Humanitarian aid has thus constituted a sizable chunk of spending on Somalia, and this figure is sure to grow sharply given the horrifying famine now under way; the United States alone has offered up $500 million to stem the tide of starvation in the Horn of Africa this year, and the United Nations estimates that a worldwide contribution of at least $2 billion will be needed to address the situation in the horn this year alone.

But although $13 billion is a lot of money, aid experts note that Somali refugees and internally displaced persons receive far less aid per capita than their counterparts elsewhere in the world. The average annual cost of assisting a single refugee from Somalia is just over $300, and the average Somali internally displaced probably receives half that amount in aid, according to estimates prepared by Mercy Corps International for our report. The amount of aid reaching those displaced within southern Somalia remains strikingly low, in part because insecurity, al-Shabab obstructionism, and U.S. terrorism restrictions have made access to these populations incredibly difficult.

AFP/Getty Images

 

John Norris is the executive director of the Sustainable Security and Peacebuilding Initiative at the Center for American Progress. Bronwyn Bruton is Deputy Director of the Atlantic Council's Michael S. Ansari Africa Center and a fellow at One Earth Future Foundation. They are co-authors of the new report "Twenty Years of Collapse and Counting: The Cost of Failure in Somalia."

GOEDEL

11:34 PM ET

October 5, 2011

We're just not smart enough to run an empire!

In principal, I put moral considerations first. That is the opposite of realpolitik, but Henry Kissinger was never my mentor. Just look at where his behavior has led us!

In the present case, I am putting morality aside because there is a more effective argument against US policy-making exemplified in Somalia: our leaders are just not smart enough to run an empire.

One can look at the individuals who have led us in the past two decades, just to put an arbitrary time-frame on the study: WJC, GWB, BHO, and their underlings; or one can look at the agencies responsible for policy-making: State, Defence, CIA, NSC and their cohorts in the congress.

The CIA has been asleep at the switch since before the collapse of the USSR, which it failed to see ahead. In Afghanistan, it created the Taliban. In Somalia, it brought Al Shabab from a minor role in the Courts with only a few Al Quaeda in its ranks to being the rulers of the Somalian country-side. It did this when the CIA and Pentagon destroyed the Courts in favor of a few war-lords on the CIA payroll. Al Shabab became the only alternative to the corrupt and nefarious war-lords, our friends.

We are too short-sighted, badly informed and unintelligent to run an empire. We really ought to give it up and see if we can manage to run our own country. At present, BHO and Congress are doing a very poor job of that and offer little hope of improvement. Maybe we need a radical change, doing away with corporate personhood - a real scam on the 14th amendment. Or maybe we ought to have a Constitutional Convention. BHO has shredded the Constitution. Let's redo it!

 

THOMASBERRY

7:20 AM ET

October 6, 2011

You could hardly say that US

You could hardly say that US foreign policy created the Taliban. While the arguments surrounding Soviet withdrawl from Afghanistan are myriad, the most America can claim (in this regard) is to have contributed to creating a the power vacuum after the Soviets left. Regarding Al Shabab you are spot on, I'd go as far as to say that Islamaphobia played a huge part in this. The fear of supporting any hardline Islamic group lead them to back warlords, leading to the schism of the courts and the creation of Shabab. As mentioned in an article published last week on FP Somalia has never truly been homogenous, tribal divides are the way of life, a failure to admit this in Somalia and in Afghanistan has caused no end of problems. Shortsightedness is the bain of foreign policy and military campaigns alike. I don't follow your republican/anti-obama rhetoric but then I'm not American so what do I know.

 

PHILBEST

9:18 PM ET

October 7, 2011

Kissinger vindicated?

What was wrong with Kissingerian realism? This and Bush-ist "nation-building" cannot both be right.
Kissinger was right that some cultures simply never will settle down peacefully under democratically elected government. This has been true for most of history, for most of humanity, anyway. It is us who are the exceptions.
No modern "liberal" would have expected "7 years war" era Europeans to settle down and stop killing each other over religious differences. Some cultures in the world today are merely stuck back in that era. Therefore, nation-building is a waste of blood and treasure, and Henry Kissinger was right.
If "they" become a threat to the peace, whack the ruling regime and support their opposition. The best we can wish for, is brutal dictatorships that respect us, even if they do not "love" us.

 

ARCONDICIONADO11

5:18 PM ET

October 6, 2011

Field of Saviors

i Agree in franchised independence, the friendly 800 lb. gorilla, five hundred years ago. Modernity ruined it for America and Somalia. Now we torment each other. ..Thanks for sharing!
ArCondicionado Imovel Acompanhante Massagem Ar Automotivo

 

DR. SARDONICUS

9:05 PM ET

October 6, 2011

Somalia is a disaster capitalism poster child

The full boat invoice for Somali piracy should be faxed to the corporations who (since they’re “people” now) financed the floating fish processing factories that dredged up and sterilized the entire fisheries ecology off the Somali coast: the fisheries equivalent of the BP Gulf Coast petroleum disaster. They laughed all the way to the bank and got off scot free thanks to total media anonymity.

Now, everything’s the demonized Somali pirates’ fault. Today’s pirate was yesterday’s fisherman and likely the son of a 1980’s inland refugee evacuated to the coast during a quite successful humanitarian program back in the day. Now ruined for the profit of thugs in suits.

The World Court should arraign their board of directors for crimes against humanity, try them and fine them for everything they’re worth, the proceeds to go directly back into the Somali coastal economy. That would serve as an example for the next wolf pack of disaster capitalists and ecocide specialists.

Otherwise, these continental rip-offs and their sociopath experts will continue at our expense, until everyone except billionaires is turned into a gutted-economy “Somali pirate” ripe for globalized, preferably privatized, paramilitary repression.

 

DR. SARDONICUS

9:24 PM ET

October 6, 2011

Who shipped in all those AKs?

Then we can line up the same treatment for whoever just happened to ship so many military assault weapons into one of the poorest countries on Earth, enough to re-equip the North Korean Army with small arms.

And what role CENTCOM and State played (whether passively or actively) in that travesty. There seems to be more than enough incompetence and criminality to go around.

And as usual with our global sociopathocracy, no-one is to blame but the victims.

 

VDELMONTE

5:39 AM ET

October 30, 2011

Most Likely..

...The US government. The ATF (US government agency) was recently caught red handed shipping guns into Mexico, giving the guns to BOTH drug cartels! Research operation fast and furious to find out more.

- Vince Delmonte

 

MYSTIKIEL

1:24 AM ET

October 7, 2011

The US should have let the Islamic Courts Union get on

with the job of running Somalia. Whatever they might have thought of the US, at least they were the only people capable of governing the country and maintaining it as something other than a haven of piracy.

Now they have an open sore on their hands and a purported government that is capable of exercising authority over an area about the size of two basketball courts during the daytime. Of course, its also worth noting the warlords in that purported government were the same ones firing RPGs at American soldiers in the incident portrayed in the movie "Black Hawk Down".

You really have to wonder what kind of idiots are running American foreign policy.

 

DAVIDJONES23

2:25 AM ET

October 8, 2011

somalia

slow