If you want to determine who is responsible (which is not at all the same thing as proving guilt) then you look at these three things: motive, motive, motive.

There is no motive for Iran to enlist a used-car salesman to hire a Mexican drug cartel to kill a Saudi ambassador in a Washington restaurant.

No. Motive. Whatsoever.

And if there is no motive then you can cross them off the list of suspects.

I find it very hard to believe that Tehran would make such a radical break from its own set course, particularly with so little to gain and so much to lose, and with such uncharacteristic incompetence. The sensationalist in me wants to imply the possibility of a false flag operation where another actor set Iran up, given the common knowledge that cartels are full of DEA moles, and the fact that the person caught has a passport in the country blamed.

However, said person, Manssor Arbabsiar has a reputation in his community as an absent minded drunk, and the DEA informant who caught him was just that, a paid informant, not an trained official. The most likely scenario in my mind is entrapment; the restaurant they planned to blow up doesn't even exist, it was made up, as a suggestion by the agent to Arbabsiar of where to strike. Arbabsiar even had the private means to pay the $100,000 down-payment, and god knows what was going on in his head. He could well have thought he was a secret agent, but this bears all the hallmarks of one of the many cases that have plagued US counter-terrorist efforts where a malleable suspect is coaxed into provoking his own arrest.

The only question then: Why is the White House pursuing such an antagonistic stance towards Iran with so little evidence?

No matter how you look at it, this alleged plot yields no gain for Iran, and maximum gain for US, Saudi and Israel:

1- US Government distracts attention from domestic issues, such as Op Fast & Furious, Wall Street, dire economy... by establishing an imminent threat. Indeed, the "fear factor" can do wonders.

2- More arm sales to Saudi to confront "dangerous Iran." More profit, more backdoor deals.

3- While Israeli embassy was also mentioned, the main player is Saudi, a Muslim country. There will be no anti-American, anti-Israeli sentiment in the ME. After all, US is saving a Muslim country.

4- Saudi can silence its growing domestic uprising. The new generation of Saudis are tired with the monarchy and want reform. Perception of an imminent foreign threat to nation can secure the monarchy for a few more years.

5- Arab nations will rally around Saudi, which will undermine Iran's influence in the region.

So by this alleged plot, where not a single shot has been fired, above objectives can be attained. No matter how much I try to put Iran on the hot seat, it just doesn't add up: a shady car salesman, Mexican druglords, in US territory (which happens to have tightest securities)...

I think it perfectly adress this article, but ignore the fact that i try to dismantle shadow govt's article.

"Ok, IRAN is working with MEXICAN drug dealers ?! I get it. They can no longer cooperate with Taliban's poppy smugling, since the US has taken over their part of the job, now they were obliged to go overseas and work with mexican drug dealers. Anyhow, i do think the international community will not take this seriously, America's credibility is over, only Israel will support.

Now lets get this article right:

"Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, for one, remarked, "The idea that [Iran] would attempt to go to a Mexican drug cartel to solicit murder-for-hire to kill the Saudi ambassador, nobody could make that up, right?"

For sure. If i were a "plotmaker" at the MISIRI, i would not choose US soil to kill a Saudi Ambassador, i would obviously act under my area of influence. They sure can get someone to do this job in the ME, i could work with my anti-american partners and "jihadists". No need for articulating overseas.

"But as outlandish as it may seem, it can also be seen as the fruits of Iran's steady expansion into Latin America and attempts to make common cause with transnational criminal operations in its global conflict with the United States."

Oh, ok. Yes, of course. They must work with Venezuela's smuggling scheme. I am a latin american, there's no increase of ties with Iran. South America's most powerful country (BRAZIL) is backing down it's relations with Iran. Argentina is doing the same.

"Moreover, Iran and Hezbollah's ties to Mexican drug cartels are nothing new. For years, they have been involved in drug smuggling and people smuggling in Mexico and across the U.S. border."

Hezbollah ? are you serious ? In this case, "For Years.." seems like "Some Say.." on fox news to represent it's sources. Hezbollah has other things to do, so does Iran.

"What experts say is new, however, and indicative of a deepening relationship, is Mexican drug traffickers' increasing use of small improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and car bombs in waging their mayhem in Mexico, an expertise for which Hezbollah is particularly known; and, secondly, the ongoing discovery of increasingly sophisticated narco-tunnels along the U.S.-Mexico border, which experts say ­resemble the type used by Hezbollah in Lebanon."

I guess any guy who has watched discovery channel and other networks (internet and so on) can make IEDs. And building a car bomb it is not a hard task. Actually, they possibly could get help from someone in the US, since you have a lot of unemployed veterans who would love get some american dollars in mexico and get a house on the beach. Not a moralistic Islamist. As for the tunnels.. you, sr, compare their tunnels with hezbollah's ones as if they were sophisticated.

"To be sure, trying to arrange the assassination of a foreign diplomat on U.S. soil represents an ominous turn in Iranian strategy against the United States. In any case, the stakes are clear. In a May 2011 visit to Bolivia, Iranian Defense Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi proclaimed that in the event of any military confrontation between Iran and the United States, "The strong Iran is ready for enemy-crushing and tough response in case of any illogical and violent behavior by the U.S." It seems we now have a pretty good idea on how Iran will rely on its new-found friends in the Western Hemisphere to carry out that threat."

Of course Iran must be ready, it's national security is at risk, they are surrounded by the USA. We can also see another contreversie on this article. you allege Iran has found new friends, but you say it is not a new relationship. And Iranian defense brigadier general says that everywhere he goes. But putting in your article he said that specifically in Bolivia would have a greater impact, right ?

THIS is absurd. There's no logical sense on this allegations. A new enemy, a new lie. Reminds me of Saddam's story. Any person who has it's criticism working, history knowledge and logical thinking can dismiss this article and this allegations."

Here is another nice article: http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2011/10/11/iranian-terror-plot-fake-fake-fake/

Smart criminal always hire a moron to do his killing contracts.
Iran is panicing that Assad is losing and for the Mullas it means no more dreaming of the Shiaa kingdom from Iran to the Med .
they wanted to send a message to the Saudis not to back the revolution in Syria.
that`s it , no more , no less.

The whole "plot" is a hypothesis, there is no hard evidence on its details, extent, implications. Yet you readily draw the usual conclusions from it: "We are winning as the [insert random enemy] is on the run, their [insert random adjective] is greatly weakened, due to our magnificent efforts."

Let us help you out with a similar story: I have just caught a travelling salesman [insert a foreign-sounding name] who claims to be working for the Chinese government with the goal of stealing money and transferring it back to China! Now what does it tell us? 1. The Chinese government is broke and desperate. 2. They are really stupid to try such a plot. 3. Because it happened in America, to is certainly due to our good policies!

See? I've just made up a story like the that of the "plot" above, drew some fake but plausible conclusions from it, so now I have something to congratulate myself for! Obama does the same, scoring political points with the heroic feat of foiling the made-up plot and also providing justification for the never-ending war effort at the same time. Isn't media just sweet?

Who would gain by a bloody assasination attempt on a Saudi diplomat by an Iranian agent in the USA? Perhaps I've been reading too much Freddie Forsyth and John le Carre. But then again, who sank the USS Liberty, machine gunned the survivors and go away scot free?

For what it is worth

All would be terrorists tend to be funny losers, until they succeed. The 9/11 terrorists would have been comical had they not been successful.

I do think in the end, this will be more about drugs than anything else.

"...such an act would...would assuredly provoke a harsh response by the United States..."

What evidence is there ofr this statement? The US has been extremely tokerant fo Iran's past actions including the murder of US soldiers in Lebanon and proxy attacks thriughout the Muslim world.
It is difficult to imagine what it aould take to get the US torespond directly to Iranian provocation.

For me, things look pretty clear. Americans need another war to get involved to support the economy of America. We just need a good reason to start. If Iran does not offer this reason, we Americans produce one.

At this point the best outcome we can expect from Obama is that he will organize a Reagan-Libya style attack against a military target, and that this act will not lead to war. But I would also expect some sort of counter-attack against US forces in Iraq and/or Afghanistan.

This plot is very suspicious. Has Israel infiltrated the Quds force, the infiltrators perpetuating this bizarre scenario?

Israel and Saudi Arabia have been trying to get the US to attack Iran. So now they have succeeded?

Perhaps Obama thinks attacking Iran will be a way to get some Republican support for his jobs bill.

From an intelligence standpoint, the operation fails the smell test. If the Quds force is similar in its operations to Mossad, why would they entrust such a job to such uncontrollable elements as members of the Zetas when there should surely be trained professionals to do the job in the Iranian intelligence agencies?

The operation also fails the smell test from a foreign policy standpoint. Why should Iran (a fifth rate power) go out of its way to piss off Uncle Sam by doing such a thing? The Saudi ambassador to the USA is no more of a target to Iran than thousands of other people much closer to Iranian soil. If the Iranians wanted relations between the two countries to deteriorate more between themselves and the US, there are scads of options easier to do than a wet job in DC, any of which would have greater immediacy and visibility than this.

To read an extended analysis of what I see as really going on, read the Open Salon blog of old new lefty entitled "Obama's Wag the Dog?"

Robert Baer seems to think it unlikely and he should know.

That said, what if it's not an assassination plot but a plot to discredit the United States by creating a fake plot that blows up in the US government's fact after they've announced they've found a plot?

Could the wile Mullahs be so devious? Let's ask Bob.

"If Iran really is behind a plan to kill the Saudi ambassador to Washington, its capabilities and strategic acumen are far less impressive than anything we've seen thus far."
--Used car salesman Afshon Ostovar--

If the United States really expects the anyone but the usual suspects (Joe Liberman, Joe Biden, John Kerry, Rick Perry, AIPAC and the Fox News Fairy) to believe this B.S. Plot then; "its capabilities and strategic acumen are far less impressive than anything we've seen thus far."

Spooks come up with bizarre ideas, sometimes. The CIA made several famously boneheaded attempts to assassinate Fidel Castro. That does not mean that they are always incompetent. It does mean that low-level spies are implementing policy, or think they are, made by higher-ups. Further, Iran does not do terrorism per se; it sponsors proxy terrorists such as Hamas and Hezbollah. But Iran does have a history of assassinating regime opponents in England and other countries. The failure here does in no way make the attempt unbelievable.

I recall reading an article on this site about how FBI found folks connected to Israel were trying to plant stories about Iran in media. they did not get the Quds guy and have taken the word of the other guy that the person was from Quds. What if he was not?

We have a pretty good idea about who was behind Stuxnet virus (which incidentally did not just infect Iran, it also was found in India). What if the same forces were behind this?

For those that think Iran is an actual threat, then you need to think again. There is no way that they can build a nuclear bomb if they can't even get this done right. There is no need to worry about the d800 or any other weapon for that matter from Iran. They have officially humiliated themselves, again.

First, the United States' pressure around the Middle East is backfiring. After our support from the so-called Arab Spring, countries like Saudi Arabia happen to bemuscle building tipsbullied into adopting more liberal policies in your own home. It has made a situation by which countries like Iran sense danger and try to break pressure. Observe that they tried to kill a Saudi official in the usa, not just one in Saudi Arabia. The aim, because it appears to be, would be to disrupt communicationhow to build musclebetween your US and Saudi Arabia. Not just would other Saudis hesitate to volunteer to exchange the would-be dead ambassador, but Saudi Arabia would blame the united states for lax security round the embassy.

Second, America has tolerated an unsuccessful state just south from the border. Rather than concentrating on developing a strategic order within the Western Hemisphere, the American government has stood by while unrest spreads across Latin America. The weakness, volatility, and (in certain factions) hostility from the forces towards the south give a cheap opening for enemies abroad. The critical indicate American defense is definitely an orderly Western Hemisphere. America should be aware and exploit its role being an offshorevisual impact muscle buildingif it's to stay secure. Most countries need to bother about being invaded with a neighbor. Not too using the Usa; since expanding to pay for the continent, the Unite States has already established full hegemony within the Western Hemisphere. The only real concern it faces from neighbors happens when they become too friendly with opponents.

Something is definitely fishy here. A careful analysis on this lame terror plot will clearly show us that this is just another manufactured television sketch. Why would Iran want to kill the Saudi ambassador when they have bigger fishes to fry? Why would Iran hire Mexican drug cartels to perform assassinations?

The plot gets more absurd. Could this be another US-NATO-Israel's absurd attempts to launch a war against Iran and increase the drug war against Mexico? Lame.

Stop to think, folks. Much love!
Lisa O.

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