Mogadishu on the Mediterranean?

While fireworks light up the skies of Tripoli and Libyans dance in the street, a note of caution is now in order. Simply removing a dictator is not an automatic cure-all for a society long terrorized. Yes, toppling a tyrant can pave the way toward viable democracy; and there are many examples -- from Chile to the Philippines.

But there are also less inspiring ones. In 1991, the man who had ruled Somalia in brutal style for 22 years -- Mohammed Siad Barre -- fell from power. He died four years later in exile in Kenya, by then completely irrelevant to the fate of his country.

Somalis took little consolation in his departure. The collapse of Barre's highly personalized tyranny gave way to a power vacuum that continues to this day. Long-suppressed rivalries of clan and tribe broke into the open and tore the place apart.

Mogadishu is a good distance from Tripoli, of course. But that hasn't stopped some people from worrying about possible parallels. "One of our biggest concerns is Libya descending into chaos and becoming a giant Somalia," Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee back in early March -- a note struck by Director of National Intelligence James Clapper in his own Capitol Hill testimony a few days later, when he worried aloud about a "Somalia-like situation" ensuing in place of Qaddafi's rule.

It is understandable why the comparison presents itself. Libya has existed as a modern, unified state only since 1951. Tribal divisions persist. (The defection early in the rebellion of the one-million-strong Warfalla tribe, a mainstay of the old regime, was viewed as a near-fatal blow to Qaddafi; its members now play a prominent role in the opposition.) The rebellion against Qaddafi's rule has been very much a localized and fragmented affair, breeding a new class of powerful militia commanders like Abd al-Hakim Belhaj, the ex-Islamist leader who led the assault on Qaddafi's Tripoli compound in August, or Fawzi Bukatif, who publicly refused to integrate his powerful February 17 Brigade into a national army.

The members of the National Transitional Council (NTC), Libya's government-in-waiting, have been saying for months that the war against Qaddafi had to be completely won before there the country could move on to the difficult task of building a new one, based on democratic norms.

"Now the clock starts ticking," says Stanford political science professor James Fearon. And this is where it gets tricky. Libya's new leaders no longer have their hatred of Qaddafi to unify them; from here on out they'll have to focus on building solid political institutions that can resolve the tensions within society.

12NEXT

Save big when you subscribe to FP.

THE-INTERN

3:48 AM ET

October 21, 2011

What about the economic factor?

Off the top of my head, this prediction is unlikely to hold for one simple reason:

Libya is one of the wealthiest countries in North Africa.

This wealth is concentrated in a middle class that will favour stability above all, and Libya is likely to want to strengthen links to the international arena now that Qaddafi is gone. Somalia is an incredibly poor, isolated country with a fragmented power structure.

In 2010, Libyan GDP per capita was $14,000, more than twice that of Egypt ($6,200). Somalia's GDP pc was $600.

(Source: CIA Factbook)
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/so.html
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ly.html
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/eg.html

GUIDOLANG

10:42 AM ET

November 8, 2011

Thanks for posting this information. Nes on Youtube.

KOMAL21

5:59 AM ET

November 16, 2011

Good

The list you provide for best doctors is really awesome!Thanks for taking the time to discuss this, I feel strongly about it and love learning more on this topic. Heathrow Taxi

MEDYAZOR

3:37 PM ET

November 18, 2011

yes

Indeed, the list of the best doctors kanal d oyunları Excellent article! I’ve bookmarked your webpage.

ABDIBIDHAAN

8:22 AM ET

The Other Horn of Africa

The Other Horn of Africa
By Ahmed M. Mohamoud "Silanyo"*
October 20, 2011

HARGEISA – Drought, famine, refugees, piracy, and the violence and terrorism endemic to the shattered city of Mogadishu, a capital ruined by civil war: these are the images that flash through peoples’ minds nowadays when they think of the Horn of Africa. Such perceptions, however, are not only tragically one-sided; they are short-sighted and dangerous.
Behind the stock images of a region trapped in chaos and despair, economies are growing, reform is increasingly embraced, and governance is improving. Moreover, with Yemen’s government imploding across the Red Sea, the Horn of Africa’s strategic significance for maritime oil transport has become a primary global security concern. In short, the Horn of Africa is too important to ignore or to misunderstand.

Of course, no one should gainsay the importance of combating famine, piracy, and terrorist groups like the radical and murderous Al-Shabaab. But, at the same time, we have seen my homeland, Somaliland, witness its third consecutive free, fair, and contested presidential election. And Ethiopia has emerged as one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, with GDP up 10.9% year on year in 2010-2011, rivaling China and leading Africa. Indeed, Ethiopia is one of the few countries in the world poised to meet the United Nations’ Millennium Development Goals on time and in full in 2015.

In the wider region, too, things are looking up. South Sudan gained its independence this July at the ballot box. And Uganda has discovered large new deposits of oil and gas that will help to lift its economy.

All of these changes reflect the fact that the Horn of Africa’s peoples are no longer willing to be passive victims of fate and their harsh physical environment. On the contrary, they are determined to shape their destinies through modernization, investment, and improved governance.

After decades of stable enmities, the peoples and nations of the Horn of Africa are learning how to cooperate and align their interests. For example, Somaliland and Ethiopia are collaborating on the construction of a gas-export pipeline from Ethiopia’s Ogaden region, promising new jobs and income for people in one of the poorest and least developed parts of the world.

Although there is much that we can and will do to help ourselves, the Horn of Africa can still benefit from international assistance. But the international community needs to do more than provide food and medicine to victims of famine and drought. Necessary as that is, we need pro-growth investments that will help provide jobs for our peoples and products and resources for the world. That means focusing on promoting market economies and stable government, rather than subsidizing failure and failed states.

Unfortunately, at least with respect to Somaliland, this is not the case. For 20 years, ever since we re-established our independence – we had voluntarily joined with Italian Somaliland to form Somalia in 1960 – the international community has closed its eyes to the successful democracy that we have built. Even more perverse, it appears to be demanding that we abandon the peaceful, tolerant society that we have established and submit to the control of whatever government – if there even is one – rules (or misrules) the remainder of Somalia from the rubble of Mogadishu.

Our successful democratic experiment is being ignored in part because of a hoary ruling a half-century ago by the Organization of African Unity, the precursor to today’s African Union. Back then, with the recent demise of the colonial empires stoking fears of tribal rivalries and countless civil wars, the OAU ruled that the frontiers drawn up by the imperial powers should be respected in perpetuity.

That taboo still claims routine support from many African leaders. And yet Eritrea’s secession from Ethiopia did not lead to other breakaway movements in Africa. Likewise, South Sudan’s peaceful, and internationally supported, separation from Sudan has not led to new calls for Africa’s borders to be redrawn.

A 2005 report by Patrick Mazimhaka, a former AU deputy chairman, cast heavy doubt on the application of this rule in Somaliland. As Mazimhaka pointed out, the union in 1960 between Somaliland and Somalia, following the withdrawal of the British and Italian colonial powers, was never formally ratified. But his report has been left in a drawer ever since.

So when should a people be able to declare their independence and gain international recognition? The Palestinians’ decision to take their case to the UN has put this issue on the front burner. International law is of no help here; indeed, the World Court has offered only scant guidance.

·
Secession should not result from foreign intervention, and the barriers for recognizing secession must be high;
·
Independence should be recognized only if a clear majority (well over 50%-plus-one of the voters) have freely chosen it, ideally in an unbiased referendum;
·
All minorities must be guaranteed decent treatment.
The basic principles that I believe should prevail, and which Somaliland meets, are the following:

All three of Somaliland’s parties adamantly support independence, confirmed overwhelmingly by a referendum in 2001. So there is no question of one clan or faction imposing independence on the others. Yet, although Somaliland is deepening its democracy each day, our people are paying a high price because of the lack of international recognition.

World Bank and European Union development money, for example, pours into the black hole that is Somalia, simply because it is the recognized government. Somalilanders, who are almost as numerous as the people of Somalia, are short-changed, getting only a fraction of the money invariably wasted by Somalia.

Justice demands that this change. The national interest of most of the world’s powers requires a Somaliland willing and able to provide security along its borders and in the seas off our coasts. Our people are willing. But, to paraphrase Winston Churchill, give us the tools, and the international recognition, so that we can finish the job.

_____

* Ahmed Mohamed Mohamoud "Silanyo" is the President of Somaliland.

SARAAYE

5:21 PM ET

MR SIILAANYO, Forget Tribalism and Make the History

Dear Ahmed M. Mohamoud "Silanyo", the president of the so-called Somaliland, I understand you are campaigning for the recognition of Somaliland but there are so many, many lies (or may be errors) in your letter that need be corrected, for the sake of decency and justice:
• You said, “...there is no question of one clan or faction imposing independence on the others”. That is totally the opposite. The glaring fact is that non-Isaq clans, who comprise around 50% of the Somaliland population, oppose secession and even some of them are currently fighting Somaliland for that purpose like Dhulbahante SSC front, whose Chairman declared hundred times that they are fighting for independence from ISAQ CLAN, while others (Warsengeli and Gedabursi) decided to remain calm for their security for the time being until a viable Somalia government is formed or things change. To prove this, ask the diaspora of these non-Isaq clans who are outside of Somaliland about their positions of the secession issue, they will say no because they are safe abroad while those in the country disguise themselves as Somaliland loyalists, for safety grounds. Moreover, there are some Isaq clans who also oppose seccession like Garhajis as well as most of the intellectual elite.

After all, the country is half and half for those who want secession and for those who want to remain part of Somalia. There are 12 administrative regions in Somaliland: 5 are ISAQ (Hargaisa, Burao, Berbera, Oodweyne, Ainabo/Saraar); 5 are NON-ISAQ: Las’anod, Borama, Zaila’, Buhotleh, Badhan); while 2 are mixed (Erigavo and Gebiley)

• The international community is not “short-sighted and dangerous”, as you put it, but they know their interests and they cannot not accept injustice and domination of people by other people.

• Be fair and treat people the way you want to be treated. You know you fought and toppled down Siyad Barre’s government simply because (other things being equal) he did not belong to your clan (Isaq). He was a Daarood. And now you are trying to divide the country and take part of the Daaroods and rule them by force!

FINALLY WE WELCOME YOU, AS A RECOGNIZED STATESMAN, TO BE THE PRESIDENT OF SOMALIA AS A WHOLE + THE RIGHT TO CHANGE CAPITAL IF YOU WISH. WELCOME SILANYO. FORGET CLAN FIEFDOMS AND MAKE THE HISTORY!

MAIGARI

3:51 PM ET

October 23, 2011

Libya turning into another Somalia.?

IN all probabilit NO. NO not because of the OIL wealth Libya has, but because we hope that the U.S has learned her lesson from the ouster of the Union of Islamic Courts in Somalia. Has the U.S not been so obsessed with Islam, the al Shabab militia would have remained irrelevant. Now the Libyans have declared the Sharia as their source of Legislation and IF only IF the U.S keepsd out can the Libyans sort themselves out and bring the disparate militias under control and from the re build a National Army that can support civil Instituitions that hitherto do not exist really.

MATTAH84

8:52 PM ET

False Information

Thats false reporting. The Warfallah Tribe did not defect. They were one of the reasons it was so hard to enter Ban Walid. Get your facts straight.

Ghadafi had and still has a crazy amount of loyalists. NATO commited Genocide. 9500 bombing missions by 3 out of the 5 World Superpowers. Horrible.

INDAYMANDRAXX

9:48 PM ET

November 7, 2011

i don't think so

Well i don't really agree with what you just said above. How can you call it false reporting when the information shared are actually true. Maybe you just missed something when you read it so please double check it to see it watch pacquiao vs mayweather online because we all make mistakes and it's alright to make mistakes. watch mayweather vs pacquiao online i have made the same mistake on other posts too that is why it is important to check it out first ok? castleville cheats But i am still glad that you found time to post comments on this post. I still thank you for it! castleville energy cheats

DOMINOES

1:29 AM ET

November 10, 2011

Better to be with the devil you know

Than the devil your don't know. This is a good point, and something to think about. While a dictator is a bad thing and causes a lot of pain, they bring order and keep things flowing in terms of the country running on track and on time. Just because a dictator is taken down, does not mean that things will get better by any means and it often means that things will get worse before they get better. In these countries where there is little order outside of the dictatorship, when the confines of the ruling party is removed, then there is opportunity for things to go awry. Case and point look at Nicaragua when the Sandinistas came to power. There was a lot of brutality and poverty...so the best thing to do is to hire a Florida collection agency and get things back on track for the country. I would not want to be in Libya right now. There have been reports that things are worse now than they were under Gaddafi. God's speed Libya and all of those under a dictator or recently freed by one.

MARIOSILVABR

4:37 PM ET

legal, gostei muito do

legal, gostei muito do tópico, parabéns pelo site
calcinhas uniformes profissionais uniformes

KSUBAHAGIA

4:32 AM ET

November 13, 2011

stopping Libya from changing into another Somalia

Muammar al-Qaddafi is dead. At this point comes the challenging part. stopping Libya from changing into another Somalia. Even though fireworks jump to the skies of Tripoli and Libyans party all the time, some warning is currently needed. Only taking away a dictator is not an instant remedy-all for a culture extensive terrorized. Sure, falling a tyrant can lead just how toward good democracy; and there are lots of good examples, from Chile to the Philippines.

BROWNJENNY

2:08 AM ET

November 15, 2011

Republicans and Democrats a like

Republicans and Democrats a like are focused on one major issue: jobs. But inventor and entrepreneur Dean Kamen argues they're missing the bigger picture. To bolster the economy, he says, requires passion, innovation and risk.
Security Jobs

DANISHKHAN001

3:19 AM ET

Good Content

I am happy to find your distinguished way of writing the post. Now you make it easy for me to understand and implement the concept. Thank you for the post.
Methoxetamine

6:04 AM ET

Great Post

Really i am impressed from this post. The person who created this post is a genius and knows how to keep the readers connected.Thanks for sharing this with us. I found it informative and interesting. Looking forward for more updates.driving schools birmingham

SHANWARN

5:40 AM ET

November 17, 2011

I would like to thank you for the efforts you have made in writing this post. I am hoping the same best work from you in the future as well. In fact your creative writing abilities has inspired me to start my own blog now. Spirituosen Shop

JANE SIMMS

12:31 PM ET

Excellent content

I am really impressed by the shear genius the author who wrote such a beautiful article. Not only was it informative but I learnt a tremendous amount from it. I have already made a not of the authors name. Now that the famous gaddafi is dead and buried I really hope that Libya can move on and not end up like another somalia.

12:32 PM ET

Abb Smart Grid

MISHSTISEN

1:19 AM ET

I am happy to find your distinguished way of writing the post

I am happy to find your distinguished way of writing the post. Now you make it easy for me to understand and implement the concept. Thank you for the post.
Mailing List

DODODONG

6:32 AM ET

November 19, 2011

I think so

I likethis post very much. Thanks for good article Buy Laptop Online USA

ALEX123

1:51 AM ET

November 27, 2011

All of these changes reflect

After decades of stable enmities, the peoples and nations of the Horn of Africa are learning how to cooperate and align their interests. For example, Somaliland and Ethiopia are collaborating on the construction of a gas-export generator reviews pipeline from Ethiopia’s Ogaden region, promising new jobs and income for people in one of the poorest and least developed parts of the world.

KUMAR01

2:49 AM ET

Interesting Blog

Thanks for such an interesting article here. I must say that I have never heard about anything like that before. It is really amazing.
carpet cleaners london

ROSHANI

7:58 AM ET

Nice Blog

I study a lot of blogs just lately and yours is 1 from the best. I enjoy studying your posts – clear and well written.
Free Credit Report

SERAFINNUNEZ101

9:58 AM ET

Another one?

it's really uninteresting to see another "war"... when can we have peace? When I was checking for portable printers for netbooks, i realized that it seems like we'll have unending wars all over the world. this is really sad to know.

12:38 AM ET

Good One...

Very good post. Something which is very close to our heart. You always have a way of making it so easy to follow your thoughts and what you’re sharing with us.
taxi soelden

RUDDERMANN

11:50 AM ET

Cain suggests Taliban running Libya

Herman Cain suggested Friday the Taliban were playing a job in Libya's new government. The comment initially was viewed as another foreign policy misstep in the Republican presidential candidate, but aides later pointed to some one-time Libyan rebel leader who fought in Afghanistan to support Cain's claims.

Cain has spent a few days attempting to calm jitters about his foreign policy after he struggled to reply to whether he supported President Barack Obama's method of Libya. He ended a few days attempting to blame girl reporters for now, that was captured on video and quickly spread round the Internet.

CORTES

2:22 PM ET

Omar adverts that the NTC

Omar adverts that the NTC certainly not genuinely delivered on that promise of an inspection, an omission that has threatening implications. She agonizes that the NTC isn't taking the tribal factor into sufficient interest. The old pieces can re-assert themselves with a counteraction, she says, if people have the sense that the key authorities aren't willing to be alert for their expectations.

1:15 AM ET

November 21, 2011

Nice One

This is really a awesome article and I really do appreciate everything and I really love this site. This site has been so very helpful and a real assest. Free annual Credit score

2:20 AM ET

Excellent Article..

Hi i am a daily visitor to this site and like to read such kinds of article here daily i am seeking articles on Muammar al-Qaddafi ang getting lots of information related to him.
Business Finder Directory

KAMIL12

12:06 AM ET

November 22, 2011

NICE

The post is written in very a good manner and it entails many useful information for me. I am happy to find your distinguished way of writing the post. Now you make it easy for me to understand and implement the concept. Thank you for the post. contractor accountants

2:02 AM ET

nice one..

Interesting post and thanks for sharing. Some things in here I have not thought about before.Thanks for making such a cool post which is really very well written.will be referring a lot of friends about this.Keep blogging... Freshersworld || IT jobs || Sarkari Naukri || bank jobs

TONNY72

3:01 AM ET

nice learning..

Awesome blog. I enjoyed reading your articles. This is truly a great read for me. I have bookmarked it and I am looking forward to reading new articles. Keep up the good work! psd to html || Personal Injury Attorney

4:18 AM ET

Good steps have been used in this article. By giving these type of examples we can easily understand what the writter is saying in this article. philadelphia car accident || Dui lawyers || California Dui Lawyer

5:07 AM ET

I agree with your point

I agree with your point, please share with us more good articles.Window Shutters

LUCIFA

6:44 AM ET

Since this article, thank you, of course, I mean boys who are a pair of shorts or short at least a hairstyle that fits this too.
used cars for sale

SOFIA MIKKELSENDP

2:23 PM ET

Thank you so much

Hey, I’ve been here quite a few times now. Thought I would leave a comment. Thanks for your posts. best teeth whitening

GORDIANO

11:59 PM ET

Some commentators have voiced

Some commentators have voiced the notion that the outcome might head towards a federal Pan-Arab entity of some kind. Were that to be the direction then the cohesive authority of Islam might echo Banner em Salvador earlier periods of Arab power, or even of the role of Christianity in the evolution of Western culture. It is all very well separating Church and State but they can also have a fruitful symbiosis.

5:12 AM ET

November 23, 2011

nice blog....

This is good site to spent time on .I just stumbled upon your informative blog and wanted to say that I have really enjoyed reading your very well written blog posts. Buy high pagerank backlinks I will be your frequent visitor, that’s for sure. Personal Injury Attorney || Philadelphia slip and fall lawyer ||| psd to html || California Dui Lawyers || drunk driving attorney || banks jobs || Freshersworld || Sarkari Naukri || IT jobs

2:11 AM ET

November 24, 2011

awesome article

Always good to see, this was obvious a excellent post. In theory would like to be such a good writer too. You need time to create that brilliant and in addition real effort to create a excellent article. kindergeld 2012r

DELLACARR

9:07 AM ET

Given the option I wouldn't choice mogadishu

Given the option I wouldn't choice mogadishu, that is for sure. Lets hope for the sake of the libyian people they can prevent Libya from turning into another Somalia. edu backlinks | buy edu backlinks

JUHI

5:03 AM ET

November 25, 2011

Yes, toppling a tyrant can

Yes, toppling a tyrant can pave the way toward viable democracy; and there are many examples -- from Chile to the Philippines. But there are also less inspiring ones.Job advertising

3:56 AM ET

November 26, 2011

Good coverage

Its a good story has been shared with us,i am a daily visitor of this site and find daily such kind of news.all the articles and blogs are written in very well manner.
Annual Free Credit Reports

FIONACHARGE

4:00 AM ET

Libya: Mogadishu on

Libya: Mogadishu on the Mediterranean? Muammar al-Qaddafi is dead. Now comes the hard part. preventing Libya from turning into another Somalia. While fireworks light up the skies of Tripoli and Libyans dance in the street, a note of caution is now in order.
Boat Storage

11:37 PM ET

Great coverage

I don't usually reply to posts but I will in this case. My God, i thought you were going to chip in with some decisive insght at the end there, not leave it with 'we leave it to you to decide'. Persoonlijke lening

It sounds like you're creating problems

It sounds like you're creating problems yourself by trying to solve this issue instead of looking at why their is a problem in the first place.
Energieleveranciers vergelijken

1:45 AM ET

November 28, 2011

The website is brilliant. I was shown and told about you in meditation/dream state and then searched for you online.I extend much gratitude to you for receiving and spreading this gift. contractor accountants

5:20 AM ET

You have some useful pointers here

You have a few useful pointers on this site. This is a well written article that I have bookmarked for future reference. Have a great day
Motorcycle Accident Attorneys

5:24 AM ET

The situation can only get worse

Having been just browsing for useful blog posts intended for the project research when I happened to stumble on yours. Thanks for this useful material!
booklet printing

7:23 AM ET

I am glad to found such useful post. I really increased my knowledge after read your post which will be beneficial for me. roasted garlic cloves

JAINNAYER

7:03 AM ET

November 29, 2011

Awesome post! Keep this fantastic stuff coming. Sometime I want to be a blog site writer like you…anyway you could email me some tips? Thanks! Bodybuilding

SENUKEVPS

5:41 PM ET

I agree with your point.

I agree with your point. Thanks for your post. Senuke VPS

11:55 PM ET

December 1, 2011

I couldn't agree more

Hi, I’ve been a lurker around your blog for a few months. I love this article and your entire site! Looking forward to reading more!
cross channel mojo

RIYANSHI01

5:28 AM ET

December 3, 2011

nice blog

Good one! 3dcad

ASIMALI

5:26 PM ET

pompe chaleur

I appreciate the work of all people who share information with others. Great to read about it. Brilliant post with useful information. pompe chaleur

12:15 AM ET

December 6, 2011

A recent male college

A recent male college graduate sought Michel Martin's advice about navigating through economic troubles that have disproportionately affected his generation. In her weekly commentary, Martin discusses his letter and asks listeners what advice they would give.
iPhone 5

11:53 PM ET

Thanks it was just another

Thanks it was just another motivation to devote some more of time and effort to my startp! Regards.i really like admire your information sharing.Luxushotels

6:27 AM ET

December 7, 2011

Now the clock starts ticking

"Now the clock starts ticking," says Stanford political science professor James Fearon. And this is where it gets tricky. Libya's new leaders no longer have their hatred of Gadhafi to unify them; from here on out they'll have to focus on building solid political institutions that can resolve the tensions within society.
lehti

Foreign Policy Magazine

Inside National Security

Muammar al-Qaddafi is dead. Now comes the hard part -- preventing Libya from turning into another Somalia.

BY CHRISTIAN CARYL | OCTOBER 20, 2011

(57)