Plausible Culpability

Don't be so quick to dismiss Iran's bumbling assassination plot -- it's likely that it was green-lighted at the highest levels. And not responding forcefully is an invitation for more attacks.

BY DANIEL BYMAN | OCTOBER 28, 2011

Incredulity has been the most common response to reports that Iran plotted with Mexican drug traffickers to kill the Saudi ambassador to the United States, Adel al-Jubeir, at a Washington, D.C. restaurant. Given past U.S. intelligence failures, the opacity of the Iranian regime, and the seemingly clumsy nature of the operation, it is easy to dismiss the Obama administration's allegations that Iran planned such a risky attack. But there are plenty of reasons to think that the Islamic Republic's senior leadership was responsible for the plot.

The incredulity takes three forms:  the Iranians would never conduct such an operation because it goes against their interests; the Iranians are too competent for such a cartoonish plot; and if Iran did do such a thing, it must have been a rogue operation by junior intelligence officers. All these arguments are plausible -- and all are probably wrong.

The suspected Iranian agent, Mansour Arbabsiar, allegedly met with a Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) source whom he tried to hire for murder. "They want that guy done," he reportedly told the agent, referring to the Saudi ambassador. "If the hundred [of collateral victims] go with him, [expletive] them," according to the U.S. government complaint. Arbabsiar also "met several times in Iran" with Ali Gholam Shakuri, a senior member of Iran's paramilitary Quds Force, a special unit of the country's Revolutionary Guards that has carried out many terrorist attacks. Shakuri in turn informed the head of the Quds Force, who reports directly to Iran's Supreme Leader. There are also intercepted phone calls between Arbabsiar and Shakuri, which is hard evidence to dismiss. And then there is the money -- $100,000 -- transferred for the plot. Together this is pretty damning evidence.

But why would Iran do such a thing? Even FBI Director Robert Muller noted that the allegations seemed like "a Hollywood script." The blowback from the operation could be considerable, particularly if, as Arbabsiar anticipated, a hundred bystanders were killed along with the Saudi ambassador.

Tehran may have felt it still needed to act despite these risks. Iran has suffered serious recent setbacks in the Middle East. Its Syrian ally is under siege. Closer to home, Saudi troops led a crackdown in March in Bahrain, Iran's Gulf neighbor; the Sunni government there brutally repressed fellow Iran's Shiites, and the United States seemed to give tacit approval. Indeed, Saudi officials claim that Shakuri helped to plan Quds Force operations in Bahrain giving him a personal motive to lash out against the Saudis and the United States.

Revenge may also have been a motive, since several Iranian nuclear scientists have been assassinated in recent years -- killings that are widely thought to be the handiwork of Israel intelligence, with U.S. approval. At a minimum, Iran would certainly believe that the "Little Satan" would not take such actions without the support of the "Big Satan." So payback and setbacks may have led Iran to lash out.

But even if Iran had a compelling motive, why would it use a bumbler like Arbabsiar and then allow him to use drug traffickers as allies?

JEWEL SAMAD/AFP/Getty Images

 SUBJECTS: IRAN
 

Daniel Byman is a professor in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University and a senior fellow with the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. His most recent book is A High Price: The Triumphs and Failures of Israeli Counterterrorism.

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CHARLESFRITH

4:42 PM ET

October 28, 2011

Approved At The Highest Levels.

Of course it was. The State Department.

 

DIEED

8:30 PM ET

October 28, 2011

Bang on

Couldn't have said it any better myself.

 

DMOLONEY

8:23 AM ET

October 30, 2011

No doubt you are going to

No doubt you are going to provide some ground breaking evidence for this claim

 

REDACTED

12:21 PM ET

October 31, 2011

No plot -- just entrapment

See:

http://www.counterpunch.org/2011/10/14/more-sting-than-plot/

On May 24, when Arbabsiar first met with the DEA informant he thought was part of a Mexican drug cartel, it was not to hire a hit squad to kill the ambassador. Rather, there is reason to believe that the main purpose was to arrange a deal to sell large amounts of opium from Afghanistan.

In the complaint, the closest to a semblance of evidence that Arbabsiar sought help during that first meeting to assassinate the Saudi ambassador is the allegation, attributed to the DEA informant, that Arbabsiar said he was “interested in, among other things, attacking an embassy of Saudi Arabia”.

Among the “other things” was almost certainly a deal on heroin controlled by officers in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Three Bloomberg reporters, citing a “federal law enforcement official”, wrote that Arbabsiar told the DEA informant he represented Iranians who “controlled drug smuggling and could provide tons of opium”.

Because of opium entering Iran from Afghanistan, Iranian authorities hold 85 percent of the world’s opium seizures, according to Iran’s Fars News Agency. Iranian security personnel, including those in the IRGC and its Quds Force, then have the opportunity to sell the opium to traffickers in the Middle East, Europe and now Mexico.

Mexican drug cartels have begun connecting with Middle Eastern drug traffickers, in many cases stationing operatives in Middle East locations to facilitate heroin production and sales, according to a report last January in Borderland Beat.

But the FBI account of the contacts between Arbabsiar and the DEA informant does not reference any discussions of drugs.

The criminal complaint refers to an unspecified number of meetings between Arbabsiar and the DEA informant in late June and the first two weeks of July.

What transpired in those meetings remains the central mystery surrounding the case.

The official account of the investigation cites the testimony of the informant (referred to in the document as “CS-1?) in stating, “Over the course of a series of meetings, ARBABSIAR explained to CS-1 that his associates in Iran had discussed a number of violent missions for CS-1 and CIS-1?s purported criminal associates to perform.”

The account claims that the mission discussed included murdering the ambassador. But no specific statement proposing or agreeing to the act is attributed to Arbabsiar. “Prior to the July 14 meeting, CS- 1 had reported that he and Arbabsiar had discussed the possibility of attacks on a number of other targets,” the account states.

The targets are described as involving “foreign government facilities associated with Saudi Arabia and with another country…located either in or outside the United States”, without mentioning any discussion of the Saudi ambassador.

 

SPOOD

3:14 PM ET

October 31, 2011

You are mistaking a criminal compliant with evidence

"In the complaint, the closest to a semblance of evidence that Arbabsiar sought help during that first meeting to assassinate the Saudi ambassador is the allegation, attributed to the DEA informant, that Arbabsiar said he was “interested in, among other things, attacking an embassy of Saudi Arabia”."

The complaint of a criminal charge isn't evidence of anything. Just the allegations from which they base the charges on. The author of the "counter-punch" article has no clue what they are talking about. Nothing but armchair detective/lawyer work. Like watching CSI and claiming to know how criminal forensics works.

 

AARKY

4:01 PM ET

October 31, 2011

The phony Plot to kill someone

Smuggling heroin from Iran to Mexico is like shipping wheat to Kansas or coal to Kentucky. Mexico produces a rough Black tar heroin for internal use and export to the US. The drug laws of Iran are very harsh and the only heroin they would have has been seized from smugglers on the Afghan-Iran border. Any member of the Quds force would probably not be a part of the Border guards, so how would they steal the heroin? The whole theory smells. If $100,000 was wired to a secret FBI account, what was the real intent? Why don't we hear anything from the CIA or NSA as back-up corroboration to the FBI claims?
This whole article has been prepared by the FBI spinmiesters, State Department, or AIPAC. They really have to stop smoking that non-existent heroin; it's fogging their brains.

 

SALEM9001

12:43 AM ET

October 29, 2011

Reaction From US

U.S. President Barack Obama will make efforts made ??to increase the pressure on Iran and isolate it, in a report posted on its website that Obama urges nuclear inspectors at the United Nations to restore the pressure on Iran by shedding light on the nuclear program.

 

GRANT

1:23 AM ET

October 29, 2011

Apparently the author missed

Apparently the author missed the rather unusual (if relatively mild) criticism Iran gave to Syria only days ago.
Also I have to wonder about the demand for stronger responses (without ever mentioning what those should be) when the author just mentioned (on page 2) the serious blowback experienced by leaders when they felt a political need to do something like this.

 

GONZOV

4:29 AM ET

October 29, 2011

Flase flag

I don't want to sound like a conspiracy theorist but one does get an erie feeling. The Saudis have practically been begging for a US led invasion/intervention.

The wars of today are coming to an end and the wars of tomorrow needs to fill their place, the situation demands it. The war economy demands it.

And hey, there's no more effective way to win an election then the act of war!

 

SPOOD

3:21 PM ET

October 31, 2011

Name one successful false flag operation!

Can you name one "false flag" operation from history which actually credible or successful?

Probably not. You see it more in the work of spy fiction writers, conspiracy theorists and nutballs than reality suggests

"The wars of today are coming to an end and the wars of tomorrow needs to fill their place, the situation demands it. The war economy demands it."

The 60's are calling, they want your rant back. Due to the high cost of maintaining a military, the lack of enthusiasm towards creating new expensive weapons systems the old "military industrial complex" screed is total fiction. Military spending as a % of our GDP is at a 50 year low.

War economy? What war economy? You are an ignorant fool! We are fighting our wars on the cheap with cheap toys replacing expensive aircraft and pilots. Using long enlistment periods and outsourcing instead of sheer numbers through conscription. Our most expensive forces are the ones least utilized here. We are fighting our current wars on the cheap.

 

HASS

4:43 PM ET

October 31, 2011

Successful false flags

Lets see, one false flag operation.
OK how about The Lavon Affair, in which Israeli agents placed bombs in UK and US offices in Egypt in an attempt to blame the resultant deaths on the Egyptians? The operation was only foiled because one of the bombs went off prematurely.

And then there's the whole "second attack" on the USS Maddox in the Gulf of Tonkin, which we know now (recently, in fact) was deliberately exaggerated despite the existence of significant doubts, in order to justify a pre-planned policy of entering Vietnam.

 

AARKY

5:14 PM ET

October 31, 2011

False Flag Attacks

Spood- That's a strange title for an AIPAC troll. It's not so much false flag attacks as creating a small incident or taking advantage of a small incident and then blowing it all out of proportion. The sinking of the Lusitania and the Zimerman note was used to get the US into WWI on the side of the Brits. The Gulf of Tonkin incident lead the US into an extended war in Viet Nam that killed 58,000 men and millions of Viet and Cambodians. The out and out lies that got us into the Attack against Iraq in early 2003 is the best example of how lies are willingly used to get the US into wars. Too much of the FBI claims don't pass the smell test, especially after all the sting/entrapment cases the FBI has brayed about as saving the nation from non-existent terrorists.

 

JOHNBOY4546

5:29 AM ET

October 29, 2011

Putting a finger on the basic flaw in this case.

It's right here:
"Arbabsiar also 'met several times in Iran' with Ali Gholam Shakuri, a senior member of Iran's paramilitary Quds Force"

That Arbabsiar met with Shakuri is not something I dispute.

That Shakuri is a co-conspirator with Arababsiar appears to be obvious.

But the assertion that Shakuri is "a senior member of Iran's paramilitary Quds Force" is presented here as a self-evident truth, when it is nothing of the sort; it is an accusation, and therefore needs to be substantiated.

Consider....
Q: Who says Shakuri is a member of Quds Force?
A: Arbabsiar says so.

Q: Is Arbabsiar a reliable judge of such things?
A: Welllllll, he is a man who is incapable of telling a DEA undercover agent from a Mexican hitman.......

 

JAMSB3

4:56 PM ET

October 29, 2011

America is Undeniably Plausible

Mutual understanding, lovely. Iran thinks assassination is a legitimate state tool, too. Bang boom Bynum!

Meanwhile back on Planet America. Somewhere in the hinterlands, "Plausible deniability plus parallels; good guys and bad guys: If I blow your brains out from here is that different from you homogenizing my skill set from there?" I didn't think so.

Hollywood on the Persian Gulf; the lost hero, Mossadeq 1953, vs. whomever America shot last week. Let's enter: intrepid democratic pioneers, Bahrainis? Syrianians? Palestinians? What's the right haircut?

What would George, Clooney Washington, do? Darn.

 

BALROGGE

6:09 AM ET

October 30, 2011

And America is the shiny beacon of goodness?

I don't believe this plot for one minute.
The iranians might be many things but they are not stupid.

Even if it's all true, so what? Are you gonna call for a military intervention in Iran? that's what you all want isn't it? The contracts in Iraq is drying up? ammo sales are down? what?

If we should judge all countries equally, we should have an article every time America kills someone illegally on foreign soil. And calls for stricter sanctions to make the american government behave. Heck with all the cases perhaps a military intervention by the UN is in order to make the US comply with international law. Equality? fairness? yeah it all sounds so good when you preach to other countries. Get your own shit together and realize the age of imperialism is over.

 

MUSICMASTER

8:22 AM ET

October 30, 2011

The first step

Iran has offered to cooperate in the investigation. Take them on their words and ask to interrogate Shakuri.

 

HASS

4:44 PM ET

October 31, 2011

What if there is no

What if there is no "Shakuri"??

 

FRESH22

11:27 AM ET

October 30, 2011

Good Analysis BUT

the author didn't present evidence that this operation was in fact ordered by the Iranian regime. It's just more ideas of what may have happened based on past events. The tag-line on the front page made it seem like it was undeniable that Iran did it, but the article didn't back it up.

 

REDACTED

9:52 AM ET

October 31, 2011

It was a government STING, not an Iranian PLOT

Any evidence?

As Gareth Porter -- an actual journalist -- not a pro-Zionist shill reports, the "plot" was likely a "sting": i.e. the government gave the idea of the assassination to the used car dealer, who himself was looking to make some $ from a drug deal. Is this complicated?

See:

http://www.counterpunch.org/2011/10/14/more-sting-than-plot/

On May 24, when Arbabsiar first met with the DEA informant he thought was part of a Mexican drug cartel, it was not to hire a hit squad to kill the ambassador. Rather, there is reason to believe that the main purpose was to arrange a deal to sell large amounts of opium from Afghanistan.

In the complaint, the closest to a semblance of evidence that Arbabsiar sought help during that first meeting to assassinate the Saudi ambassador is the allegation, attributed to the DEA informant, that Arbabsiar said he was “interested in, among other things, attacking an embassy of Saudi Arabia”.

Among the “other things” was almost certainly a deal on heroin controlled by officers in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Three Bloomberg reporters, citing a “federal law enforcement official”, wrote that Arbabsiar told the DEA informant he represented Iranians who “controlled drug smuggling and could provide tons of opium”.

Because of opium entering Iran from Afghanistan, Iranian authorities hold 85 percent of the world’s opium seizures, according to Iran’s Fars News Agency. Iranian security personnel, including those in the IRGC and its Quds Force, then have the opportunity to sell the opium to traffickers in the Middle East, Europe and now Mexico.

Mexican drug cartels have begun connecting with Middle Eastern drug traffickers, in many cases stationing operatives in Middle East locations to facilitate heroin production and sales, according to a report last January in Borderland Beat.

But the FBI account of the contacts between Arbabsiar and the DEA informant does not reference any discussions of drugs.

The criminal complaint refers to an unspecified number of meetings between Arbabsiar and the DEA informant in late June and the first two weeks of July.

What transpired in those meetings remains the central mystery surrounding the case.

The official account of the investigation cites the testimony of the informant (referred to in the document as “CS-1?) in stating, “Over the course of a series of meetings, ARBABSIAR explained to CS-1 that his associates in Iran had discussed a number of violent missions for CS-1 and CIS-1?s purported criminal associates to perform.”

The account claims that the mission discussed included murdering the ambassador. But no specific statement proposing or agreeing to the act is attributed to Arbabsiar. “Prior to the July 14 meeting, CS- 1 had reported that he and Arbabsiar had discussed the possibility of attacks on a number of other targets,” the account states.

The targets are described as involving “foreign government facilities associated with Saudi Arabia and with another country…located either in or outside the United States”, without mentioning any discussion of the Saudi ambassador.

Both that language and the absence of any statement attributed to Arbabsiar imply that the Iranian- American said nothing about assassinating the Saudi ambassador except in response to suggestions by the informant, who was already part of an FBI undercover operation.

The DEA informant, as the FBI account acknowledges in a footnote, had previously been charged with a narcotics offence by a state in the U.S. and had been cooperating in narcotics investigations – apparently posing as a drug cartel operative – in return for dropping the charges. The document is notably silent on whether the conversation was recorded.

A former FBI official familiar with procedures in such cases, who spoke to IPS anonymously, said the FBI would normally have recorded all such conversations touching on the possibility of terrorism.

The absence of quotes from any of those meetings suggests that they do not support the case being made by the FBI and the Obama administration.

The account is quite explicit, on the other hand, that the Jul. 14 and Jul. 17 meetings were recorded at FBI direction. Statements quoted from those transcripts show the DEA informant trying to induce Arbabsiar to indicate agreement to assassinating the Saudi ambassador.

The informant is quoted as saying he would need “at least four guys” and would “take the one point five for the Saudi Arabia”. He declared that he “go ahead and work on the Saudi Arabia, get all the information we can”.

At one point the informant says, “You just want the, the main guy.” And at the end of the meeting, he declares, “[W]e’re gonna start doing the guy”.

The fact that not a single quote from Arbabsiar shows that he agreed to assassinating the ambassador, much less proposed it, suggests that he was either non-committal or linking the issue to something else, such as the prospect of a major drug deal with the cartel.

Arbabsiar’s quotes from a Sep. 2 phone conversation referring to the cartel as “having the number for the safe” and “once you open the door that’s it” could refer to a drug transaction that had been discussed, while the FBI account suggest those quotes refer to the assassination and “other projects” with the Iranian group.

At the Jul. 17 meeting, the DEA informant presented a plan to blow up a restaurant to kill the ambassador, with the possible deaths of 100-150 people, eliciting a lack of concern on the part of Arbabsiar about such deaths.

During a visit to Iran in August, Arbabsiar wired two equal payments totalling $100,000 to a bank account in New York. But he was still under the impression that he was about to cash in on a deal with the cartel.

The Washington Post reported Thursday that Arbabsiar had told an Iranian-American friend from Corpus Christie, Texas, “I’m going to make good money.”

There is also circumstantial evidence that Arbabsiar may have even been brought into the sting operation to help further implicate his cousin Gholam Shakuri in the terrorist plot.

Arbabsiar met with his cousin Shakuri in late September and told him that the cartel was demanding that he, Arbabsiar, go to Mexico personally to guarantee payment. That demand from the DEA was an obvious device by the FBI to get Shakuri and his associates in Tehran to demonstrate their commitment to the assassination.

The FBI account indicates that Shakuri told Arbabsiar that he was responsible for himself if he went to Mexico. That statement would have been a warning sign for Arbabsiar, if he still believed he was dealing with one of the most murderous drug cartels in Mexico, that he would be risking his own life for a group that was no longer taking responsibility for him.

Yet Arbabsiar flew to Mexico as if unconcerned about that risk.

After his arrest on Sep. 29 Arbabsiar waived the right to a lawyer and proceeded to provide a complete confession. A few days later, he placed a phone call to Shakuri which was recorded “at the direction of federal enforcement agents”, according to the FBI.

GARETH PORTER is an investigative historian and journalist with Inter-Press Service specialising in U.S. national security policy. The paperback edition of his latest book, “Perils of Dominance: Imbalance of Power and the Road to War in Vietnam“, was published in 2006.

 

MARJEPI61

9:56 AM ET

October 31, 2011

iran foes

Of course iranians are involved. It's quiet easy to do so from Venezuela through Mexico. Los Zetas are in the two countries and have connexions with gangs on U.S territory. The more you find intermediates the safer you are. it seems that the Zetas may have been operating in mid-western and southeast U.S. states since 2007, and have been linked to incidents of kidnapping, drug trafficking and extortion in the region. The brief cites an unnamed intelligence source who claims that a Zeta leader known as Gaspar Gonzales Alcantar used a network of enforcers to extort money from victims in both Tennessee and Oklahoma.

The memo also refers to another source with “excellent access” who speaks of a prisoner in South Carolina’s Bennettsville Federal Correctional Institution who has been dealing cocaine and marijuana to other inmates from within the prison since early 2008. According to the source, the individual has ties to the Zetas, and claims they are his sole supplier.

If these accounts are as credible as the FBI claims, it would mean that in 2008 the Zetas were poised to extend their reach into the Midwestern U.S., making their influence in this country much higher than is conventionally known. While alarming, this fits with much of the available information on the Zetas, which indicates that the group is working on deepening its criminal reach not just in the United States, but throughout the entire hemisphere.

 

AARKY

5:28 PM ET

October 31, 2011

The Plot smells too much

The US would be better served if the FBI would be directed to investigate all the US businesses being bought up by the Mexicans. How much of this is recycled drug money from the cartels. They learned something from the US Mafia. Think Sarah Lee Bakeries and Oro Wheat Bakeries, now owned by Bimbo Bakeries. This is just a small part of the list.

 

REDACTED

10:11 AM ET

October 31, 2011

Wow -- lot of pro-MEK types

Wow -- lot of pro-MEK types on this site.

Even Barbara Slavin said the Saudis or Israelis may be behind it.

I think it was a simple government sting: they got a guy who wanted a drug deal the idea of killing the ambassador.

 

ARVAY

12:25 PM ET

October 31, 2011

the fact that

. . aside from insisting that this absurd comedy is real, the US government has remained largely silent -- suggests that the administration has been sucker-punched by persons and agencies unknown or un-revealed at this time.

 

REDACTED

12:56 PM ET

October 31, 2011

Barbara Slavin is fairly

Barbara Slavin is fairly respected western reporter on Iran -- her take:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/11/iran-terrot-plot-saudi-arabia-ambassador-us-assassination_n_1005861.html

"Despite an alleged confession in this latest case with the Saudi ambassador, Slavin is among experts who are not convinced the plot was hatched at the highest levels of the Iranian regime.

"Given the power struggle between Iran and Saudi Arabia in the Middle East, this could be a case of deception perpetrated by the Saudis to discredit Iran," Slavin said, adding that based on the facts released "it appears that the DEA entrapped the defendants. I would want to see more of the evidence before giving credence to the charges."

In a later email to HuffPost after reading the indictment, Slavin added, "If Iran was really responsible, then it has certainly gone downhill in terms of tradecraft," Slavin noted. "Also, how was Iran able to transfer funds at a time when Iranians can barely send money home to their folks because of U.S. banking sanctions? How could the Iranians have believed that this would have been blamed on a Mexican drug cartel? It doesn't add up."

 

AARKY

5:34 PM ET

October 31, 2011

The plot doesn't Pass the Smell test

Arvay- You missed Hillary's braying like a Jack Ass about those evil Iranians. When the Iranians offered to do an investigation, that probably shut them up.

 

MIKEHAAS

10:03 PM ET

October 31, 2011

another plot

Just Google "mohammad reza sadeghnia" to find out about another assassination plot involving an Iranian hired to kill an Iranian in California.
The FBI was aware of Arbabsiar in connection with that plot, which was uncovered two years ago but for some reason downplayed by the press despite being the first example of Iran's efforts to assassinate inside the United States. The 2009 plot apparently led the FBI to hunt for Arbabsiar in the recent sting operation.

 

KDCARRIONVIVAR

4:41 PM ET

November 3, 2011

Why we need to understand the counterpart

The United States is overlooking the fact that Islam is way too linked to politics in Muslim countries. The lack of understanding this fact has and will cost them a lot in terms of its Foreign Policy in the Middle East.
Islam is very strict in behavior codes, especially when it comes to drinking and drugs. It is very unlikely that Iran, having the record of being a fundamentalist state where they want to follow the exact words of Koran, not any interpretations, would be interested of doing business with Mexican drug cartels that morally and behaviorally are the opposite extreme to Muslims: they drink, they do drugs, they have vices, women, etc. So the allegation needs to be revised and most of all, we should try to understand how they think in order to have a coherent policy that will indeed keep the American interest safe in the region.

 

SERAFINNUNEZ101

3:26 AM ET

November 10, 2011

Really interesting.

This is really interesting...but why would Iran do such thing? I was scanning some portable printers review when i realized what FBI Director Robert Muller noted about the allegations to seem like scripted. Oh my..

 

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2:23 PM ET

November 22, 2011

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HB209

2:51 PM ET

November 26, 2011

Man, the US is really on the

Man, the US is really on the p's and q's when it comes to thwarting these attacks. I think our intel is really good. Seems like we thwart an attack every other month. pajama jeans review
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