Plausible Culpability

Incredulity has been the most common response to reports that Iran plotted with Mexican drug traffickers to kill the Saudi ambassador to the United States, Adel al-Jubeir, at a Washington, D.C. restaurant. Given past U.S. intelligence failures, the opacity of the Iranian regime, and the seemingly clumsy nature of the operation, it is easy to dismiss the Obama administration's allegations that Iran planned such a risky attack. But there are plenty of reasons to think that the Islamic Republic's senior leadership was responsible for the plot.

The incredulity takes three forms: the Iranians would never conduct such an operation because it goes against their interests; the Iranians are too competent for such a cartoonish plot; and if Iran did do such a thing, it must have been a rogue operation by junior intelligence officers. All these arguments are plausible -- and all are probably wrong.

The suspected Iranian agent, Mansour Arbabsiar, allegedly met with a Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) source whom he tried to hire for murder. "They want that guy done," he reportedly told the agent, referring to the Saudi ambassador. "If the hundred [of collateral victims] go with him, [expletive] them," according to the U.S. government complaint. Arbabsiar also "met several times in Iran" with Ali Gholam Shakuri, a senior member of Iran's paramilitary Quds Force, a special unit of the country's Revolutionary Guards that has carried out many terrorist attacks. Shakuri in turn informed the head of the Quds Force, who reports directly to Iran's Supreme Leader. There are also intercepted phone calls between Arbabsiar and Shakuri, which is hard evidence to dismiss. And then there is the money -- $100,000 -- transferred for the plot. Together this is pretty damning evidence.

But why would Iran do such a thing? Even FBI Director Robert Muller noted that the allegations seemed like "a Hollywood script." The blowback from the operation could be considerable, particularly if, as Arbabsiar anticipated, a hundred bystanders were killed along with the Saudi ambassador.

Tehran may have felt it still needed to act despite these risks. Iran has suffered serious recent setbacks in the Middle East. Its Syrian ally is under siege. Closer to home, Saudi troops led a crackdown in March in Bahrain, Iran's Gulf neighbor; the Sunni government there brutally repressed fellow Iran's Shiites, and the United States seemed to give tacit approval. Indeed, Saudi officials claim that Shakuri helped to plan Quds Force operations in Bahrain giving him a personal motive to lash out against the Saudis and the United States.

Revenge may also have been a motive, since several Iranian nuclear scientists have been assassinated in recent years -- killings that are widely thought to be the handiwork of Israel intelligence, with U.S. approval. At a minimum, Iran would certainly believe that the "Little Satan" would not take such actions without the support of the "Big Satan." So payback and setbacks may have led Iran to lash out.

But even if Iran had a compelling motive, why would it use a bumbler like Arbabsiar and then allow him to use drug traffickers as allies?

123NEXT

Save big when you subscribe to FP.

CHARLESFRITH

4:42 PM ET

October 28, 2011

Approved At The Highest Levels.

Of course it was. The State Department.

DIEED

8:30 PM ET

Bang on

Couldn't have said it any better myself.

DMOLONEY

8:23 AM ET

October 30, 2011

No doubt you are going to

No doubt you are going to provide some ground breaking evidence for this claim

SPOOD

3:14 PM ET

October 31, 2011

You are mistaking a criminal compliant with evidence

"In the complaint, the closest to a semblance of evidence that Arbabsiar sought help during that first meeting to assassinate the Saudi ambassador is the allegation, attributed to the DEA informant, that Arbabsiar said he was “interested in, among other things, attacking an embassy of Saudi Arabia”."

The complaint of a criminal charge isn't evidence of anything. Just the allegations from which they base the charges on. The author of the "counter-punch" article has no clue what they are talking about. Nothing but armchair detective/lawyer work. Like watching CSI and claiming to know how criminal forensics works.

AARKY

4:01 PM ET

The phony Plot to kill someone

Smuggling heroin from Iran to Mexico is like shipping wheat to Kansas or coal to Kentucky. Mexico produces a rough Black tar heroin for internal use and export to the US. The drug laws of Iran are very harsh and the only heroin they would have has been seized from smugglers on the Afghan-Iran border. Any member of the Quds force would probably not be a part of the Border guards, so how would they steal the heroin? The whole theory smells. If $100,000 was wired to a secret FBI account, what was the real intent? Why don't we hear anything from the CIA or NSA as back-up corroboration to the FBI claims?
This whole article has been prepared by the FBI spinmiesters, State Department, or AIPAC. They really have to stop smoking that non-existent heroin; it's fogging their brains.

SALEM9001

12:43 AM ET

October 29, 2011

Reaction From US

U.S. President Barack Obama will make efforts made ??to increase the pressure on Iran and isolate it, in a report posted on its website that Obama urges nuclear inspectors at the United Nations to restore the pressure on Iran by shedding light on the nuclear program.

GRANT

1:23 AM ET

Apparently the author missed

Apparently the author missed the rather unusual (if relatively mild) criticism Iran gave to Syria only days ago.
Also I have to wonder about the demand for stronger responses (without ever mentioning what those should be) when the author just mentioned (on page 2) the serious blowback experienced by leaders when they felt a political need to do something like this.

GONZOV

4:29 AM ET

Flase flag

I don't want to sound like a conspiracy theorist but one does get an erie feeling. The Saudis have practically been begging for a US led invasion/intervention.

The wars of today are coming to an end and the wars of tomorrow needs to fill their place, the situation demands it. The war economy demands it.

And hey, there's no more effective way to win an election then the act of war!

3:21 PM ET

Name one successful false flag operation!

Can you name one "false flag" operation from history which actually credible or successful?

Probably not. You see it more in the work of spy fiction writers, conspiracy theorists and nutballs than reality suggests

"The wars of today are coming to an end and the wars of tomorrow needs to fill their place, the situation demands it. The war economy demands it."

The 60's are calling, they want your rant back. Due to the high cost of maintaining a military, the lack of enthusiasm towards creating new expensive weapons systems the old "military industrial complex" screed is total fiction. Military spending as a % of our GDP is at a 50 year low.

War economy? What war economy? You are an ignorant fool! We are fighting our wars on the cheap with cheap toys replacing expensive aircraft and pilots. Using long enlistment periods and outsourcing instead of sheer numbers through conscription. Our most expensive forces are the ones least utilized here. We are fighting our current wars on the cheap.

HASS

4:43 PM ET

Successful false flags

Lets see, one false flag operation.
OK how about The Lavon Affair, in which Israeli agents placed bombs in UK and US offices in Egypt in an attempt to blame the resultant deaths on the Egyptians? The operation was only foiled because one of the bombs went off prematurely.

And then there's the whole "second attack" on the USS Maddox in the Gulf of Tonkin, which we know now (recently, in fact) was deliberately exaggerated despite the existence of significant doubts, in order to justify a pre-planned policy of entering Vietnam.

5:14 PM ET

False Flag Attacks

Spood- That's a strange title for an AIPAC troll. It's not so much false flag attacks as creating a small incident or taking advantage of a small incident and then blowing it all out of proportion. The sinking of the Lusitania and the Zimerman note was used to get the US into WWI on the side of the Brits. The Gulf of Tonkin incident lead the US into an extended war in Viet Nam that killed 58,000 men and millions of Viet and Cambodians. The out and out lies that got us into the Attack against Iraq in early 2003 is the best example of how lies are willingly used to get the US into wars. Too much of the FBI claims don't pass the smell test, especially after all the sting/entrapment cases the FBI has brayed about as saving the nation from non-existent terrorists.

JOHNBOY4546

5:29 AM ET

Putting a finger on the basic flaw in this case.

It's right here:
"Arbabsiar also 'met several times in Iran' with Ali Gholam Shakuri, a senior member of Iran's paramilitary Quds Force"

That Arbabsiar met with Shakuri is not something I dispute.

That Shakuri is a co-conspirator with Arababsiar appears to be obvious.

But the assertion that Shakuri is "a senior member of Iran's paramilitary Quds Force" is presented here as a self-evident truth, when it is nothing of the sort; it is an accusation, and therefore needs to be substantiated.

Consider....
Q: Who says Shakuri is a member of Quds Force?
A: Arbabsiar says so.

Q: Is Arbabsiar a reliable judge of such things?
A: Welllllll, he is a man who is incapable of telling a DEA undercover agent from a Mexican hitman.......

BALROGGE

6:09 AM ET

And America is the shiny beacon of goodness?

I don't believe this plot for one minute.
The iranians might be many things but they are not stupid.

Even if it's all true, so what? Are you gonna call for a military intervention in Iran? that's what you all want isn't it? The contracts in Iraq is drying up? ammo sales are down? what?

If we should judge all countries equally, we should have an article every time America kills someone illegally on foreign soil. And calls for stricter sanctions to make the american government behave. Heck with all the cases perhaps a military intervention by the UN is in order to make the US comply with international law. Equality? fairness? yeah it all sounds so good when you preach to other countries. Get your own shit together and realize the age of imperialism is over.

FRESH22

11:27 AM ET

Good Analysis BUT

the author didn't present evidence that this operation was in fact ordered by the Iranian regime. It's just more ideas of what may have happened based on past events. The tag-line on the front page made it seem like it was undeniable that Iran did it, but the article didn't back it up.

MARJEPI61

9:56 AM ET

iran foes

Of course iranians are involved. It's quiet easy to do so from Venezuela through Mexico. Los Zetas are in the two countries and have connexions with gangs on U.S territory. The more you find intermediates the safer you are. it seems that the Zetas may have been operating in mid-western and southeast U.S. states since 2007, and have been linked to incidents of kidnapping, drug trafficking and extortion in the region. The brief cites an unnamed intelligence source who claims that a Zeta leader known as Gaspar Gonzales Alcantar used a network of enforcers to extort money from victims in both Tennessee and Oklahoma.

The memo also refers to another source with “excellent access” who speaks of a prisoner in South Carolina’s Bennettsville Federal Correctional Institution who has been dealing cocaine and marijuana to other inmates from within the prison since early 2008. According to the source, the individual has ties to the Zetas, and claims they are his sole supplier.

If these accounts are as credible as the FBI claims, it would mean that in 2008 the Zetas were poised to extend their reach into the Midwestern U.S., making their influence in this country much higher than is conventionally known. While alarming, this fits with much of the available information on the Zetas, which indicates that the group is working on deepening its criminal reach not just in the United States, but throughout the entire hemisphere.

5:28 PM ET

The Plot smells too much

The US would be better served if the FBI would be directed to investigate all the US businesses being bought up by the Mexicans. How much of this is recycled drug money from the cartels. They learned something from the US Mafia. Think Sarah Lee Bakeries and Oro Wheat Bakeries, now owned by Bimbo Bakeries. This is just a small part of the list.

ARVAY

12:25 PM ET

the fact that

. . aside from insisting that this absurd comedy is real, the US government has remained largely silent -- suggests that the administration has been sucker-punched by persons and agencies unknown or un-revealed at this time.

5:34 PM ET

The plot doesn't Pass the Smell test

Arvay- You missed Hillary's braying like a Jack Ass about those evil Iranians. When the Iranians offered to do an investigation, that probably shut them up.

MIKEHAAS

10:03 PM ET

another plot

Just Google "mohammad reza sadeghnia" to find out about another assassination plot involving an Iranian hired to kill an Iranian in California.
The FBI was aware of Arbabsiar in connection with that plot, which was uncovered two years ago but for some reason downplayed by the press despite being the first example of Iran's efforts to assassinate inside the United States. The 2009 plot apparently led the FBI to hunt for Arbabsiar in the recent sting operation.

KDCARRIONVIVAR

4:41 PM ET

November 3, 2011

Why we need to understand the counterpart

The United States is overlooking the fact that Islam is way too linked to politics in Muslim countries. The lack of understanding this fact has and will cost them a lot in terms of its Foreign Policy in the Middle East.
Islam is very strict in behavior codes, especially when it comes to drinking and drugs. It is very unlikely that Iran, having the record of being a fundamentalist state where they want to follow the exact words of Koran, not any interpretations, would be interested of doing business with Mexican drug cartels that morally and behaviorally are the opposite extreme to Muslims: they drink, they do drugs, they have vices, women, etc. So the allegation needs to be revised and most of all, we should try to understand how they think in order to have a coherent policy that will indeed keep the American interest safe in the region.

SERAFINNUNEZ101

3:26 AM ET

November 10, 2011

Really interesting.

This is really interesting...but why would Iran do such thing? I was scanning some portable printers review when i realized what FBI Director Robert Muller noted about the allegations to seem like scripted. Oh my..

SOFIA MIKKELSENDP

2:23 PM ET

November 22, 2011

Thanks

best teeth whitening I have learn several just right stuff here. Definitely price bookmarking for revisiting. I surprise how a lot attempt you put to make one of these excellent informative web site.

HB209

2:51 PM ET

November 26, 2011

Man, the US is really on the

Man, the US is really on the p's and q's when it comes to thwarting these attacks. I think our intel is really good. Seems like we thwart an attack every other month. pajama jeans review
7 sylvania netbook

Foreign Policy Magazine

Inside National Security

Don't be so quick to dismiss Iran's bumbling assassination plot -- it's likely that it was green-lighted at the highest levels. And not responding forcefully is an invitation for more attacks.

BY DANIEL BYMAN | OCTOBER 28, 2011

(23)