
A few months ago, I clicked a Facebook "like" for the band Fleetwood Mac. Ever since, my Facebook sidebar has been tempting me with advertisements about albums and T-shirts of a similar hue. Advertisers, having picked up my musical taste, are able to target me with personalized ads based on my online behavior and demographic. Annoyingly, they are usually right.
But the effectiveness of the targeting gave me an idea. Over the summer, half a million individuals across Europe were similarly targeted, this time by my organization, the think tank Demos. They were not soft-rock aficionados, but Facebook fans of populist right-wing parties that are sweeping the continent. Over the course of three months, 13,000 of them clicked on my link and filled in a survey, providing the most detailed understanding of this new breed of populist politics to date.
(Of course, there are a number of strengths and weaknesses with this method of survey recruitment, such as the "self-selection problem" -- for example, the most vocal were also the most likely to click our link. The results are all caveated by this novel approach, but even so, the findings are surprising and are available for download here.)
In Europe, populist parties are defined by their opposition to immigration and concern for protecting national and European culture, especially against a perceived threat of Islam. Over the last decade their growth has been remarkable. Once on the political fringes, these parties now command significant support in Austria, Belgium, France, Italy, the Netherlands, and even (or especially) the socialist bastions of Scandinavia. In some countries, they are the second- or third-largest party and are seen as necessary members of many conservative coalition governments.
There has been a flurry of research papers and monographs about who supports these parties. But until our report, no one had looked online, even though the Facebook membership (if that is the right word) for these groups dwarfs their formal membership lists. This combination of virtual and real-world political activity is the way millions of people -- especially young people -- relate to politics in the 21st century.
Our results suggest there is a new generation of populists that are not the racist, xenophobic reactionaries they are sometimes portrayed as. They are young, angry, and disillusioned with the current crop of automaton political elites, who they do not think are responding to the concerns and worries they face in their lives.
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