The Persian Incursion

What I learned as the armchair general of a paper Israeli air force.

BY MICHAEL PECK | NOVEMBER 9, 2011

This weekend, I sat down on my dining room table and prepared to set the Middle East aflame. I was playing Persian Incursion, a board game of a hypothetical Israeli air campaign to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities. Or, at least so far it's hypothetical. On Tuesday, Nov. 8, the International Atomic Energy Agency released a report suggesting that Iran has continued to build up its nuclear weapons program. And with Israel making serious noises about dropping bombs before Iran develops The Bomb, fiction could soon become reality. I set about seeing which side would win.

Persian Incursion is a paper war game, one of those fascinating yet complex beasts that appeals to armchair generals -- it combines the fun of a strategy game like Risk with the intellectual stimulation of reading contemporary nonfiction. The game was co-designed by techno-thriller writer Larry Bond, best known for co-authoring Red Storm Rising with Tom Clancy. (Clancy actually tested the plot for another bestselling book, The Hunt for Red October, on Bond's Harpoon naval war game.) But Persian Incursion isn't a novel -- it's a reference library inside a game. The background information included is staggering. Besides the rules book, there is a target folder and a briefing booklet listing the precise dimensions of Iranian nuclear facilities down to the meter, as well as air defenses (all of which Bond swears he obtained from unclassified sources).

Persian Incursion is basically two games in one. There is a highly detailed military game of a seven-day Israeli air offensive in which Israel plans and executes its strikes while the Iranian air defenses try to stop them. But there is also a political game that unlocks the military aspect. Persian Incursion assumes that an Israeli attack is only possible if one of Iran's neighbors -- Saudi Arabia, Turkey, or a U.S.-influenced Iraq -- either publicly or tacitly allows Israeli entry into its airspace for the strike on Iran. (The rules state that though Israel could chance an initial airstrike without an agreement, it would need permission for follow-up attacks.) With that in mind, the game comes with various starting scenarios, such as a super-radical Iran that scares its neighbors into allowing Israeli access, or Turkish support for an Israeli strike (note that the game came out in 2010, before the current Israeli-Turkish spat). So I choose the "Saudi Connection" scenario, in which the Saudis permit Israel to do the dirty work of taking down their Shiite archnemesis. I play the Israeli side, while my good friend Colonel Noob plays the Iranians.

As U.S. history has demonstrated for the last 65 years, before you blunder into a war, it's best to figure out exactly how you're going to win. Although Persian Incursion is a war game, destroying or protecting Iran's nuclear sites is only a means to victory -- not victory itself. The real prize is political. If Israel or Iran can knock down the other's morale enough through military or political action, it wins. Part of the goal, then, is to score points on "political tracks," which measure public opinion and morale. But it's not just Israel and Iran that have political tracks; the game simulates the pressure and acquiescence of other countries that have a dog in this fight, including the United States, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, Russia, China, Jordan, and the United Nations (representing Europe and the rest of the world). Basically, the more supportive a country is toward Israel or Iran, the more political, intelligence, and military points it will provide to that belligerent. And these points are the currency of Persian Incursion; most every Israeli or Iranian action, from airstrikes to missile launches to terrorist attacks, requires them. Think of it as the Monopoly money you need to build your hotel empire.

To add to the unpredictability, Persian Incursion gives each player a chance before the game to purchase extra goodies. Iran's Colonel Noob buys GPS jammers to frustrate Israeli guided weapons, plus a couple of Chinese HQ-9 surface-to-air missile (SAM) batteries. And knowing that missiles will soon be headed Israel's way, I choose a third Arrow 2 anti-missile battalion, plus extra tanker aircraft for longer bombing sorties. The political tracks begin with Saudi Arabia somewhat supportive of my Israeli attack and with the United States, Turkey, and the United Nations offering lukewarm endorsement. On the other side, Russia is somewhat supportive of Iran, while China is a full-on ally. This situation is tenuous and fraught with danger for both players. If the Saudi political track shifts more toward Israel, Saudi aircraft could join in the fun. ("Oops, sorry Tehran! We were trying to attack the Jews' aircraft, but we accidentally bombed your reactor. Our king is most distraught.") On the other hand, China's support for Iran could mean an emergency airlift of Chinese weapons.

And so it begins. Colonel Noob sets up a potpourri of Soviet- and Chinese-made SAM batteries and stations the Iranians' jet-fighter interceptor squadrons on various air bases around Iran. I've got some tough decisions to make. I can knock down Iranian morale by destroying nuclear sites or battering its oil infrastructure (the premise being that either would induce Tehran to abandon its nuclear program). Oil sites are less heavily defended, and they're closer to the Israeli flight path over Saudi Arabia, which means my planes can carry more bombs and less fuel. But oil installations can absorb an awful lot of damage before going offline, and attacking the world's petrol supply could trigger an international backlash. Oh, hell, I finally decide: If I'm not going after Iranian nukes, what's the point? For starters, I pick the Natanz and Isfahan atomic sites, which are closer to the Saudi border.

I begin with a special-forces operation that puts spotters on the ground to improve the accuracy of my airstrikes. Iran responds with a "propaganda barrage" and dice roll to see if it can get Saudi support for Israel to decline -- fortunately, for me, the gods decree otherwise. Israel executes its first airstrike. Combat basically involves Israeli aircraft progressing through successive "nodes" of Iranian interceptors and anti-aircraft weapons. I get lucky again: Iranian interceptors, outdated and often short of spare parts, can't hit worth a damn, and Israeli radar-jamming prowess helps neutralize Iranian surface-to-air missiles. Then, one of my F-16s is shot down, which means a hit on Israeli public opinion. But I've heavily damaged the Isfahan uranium conversion facility, and Iranian morale takes a hit.

The first game turn continues as Iran responds with missile strikes on Israeli cities, designed to lower Israeli morale. But one missile blows up on the launch pad, and another is shot down by my Arrow missiles. Of the two remaining missiles, one hit is a dud, but the other inflicts "major damage," which hurts my political track. Colonel Noob's turn is done.

Clash of Arms Games

 

Michael Peck is an editor at Military Times.

MORANI YA SIMBA

2:58 AM ET

November 9, 2011

Why should we assume the game is realistic?

I design Axis and Allies based computer games to simulate global conflicts from World War One to a global conflict between China and the West 20 years from today. Since some of the software is "frozen" I fully agree that board games have important advantages in being easier to redesign without having to write or wait for new software. But a game is a model of reality and as such may be a very poor one. You say Iran has no chance of stopping an Israeli attack. How do we know that's really true? Also, you didn't mention how effective your attack was at destroying the nuclear facilities. That too would have been interesting.

Finally, given the nature of the mullah regime, why should we hope an airstrike on Iran "remains a game?" It MAY be the only responsible thing to do.

 

JEFF DOUGHERTY

10:16 AM ET

November 9, 2011

Realism in Wargames

Hi there,

Thought I'd weigh in on this, as co-designer of the game. You're right that any game can only be an approximation of reality and has to contain some level of guesswork, but the Harpoon system (which Persian Incursion uses as its combat engine) has been very carefully researched and refined over the last 30 years to be as accurate as possible. The U.S. Navy and Australian Ministry of Defense have used it to train their officers for the real thing, so we must be doing something right.

As far as Iran having no real chance of stopping an Israeli attack, the fact is that right now most of Iran's air defenses are equipped with 1960s and 70s vintage gear, with much of it in poor working order due to a lack of spare parts. The Israeli Air Force is, plane for plane, arguably the best equipped in the world with gear at least one generation more advanced than anything the Iranians have, and more like two for most of it. Barring massive new arms purchases or extranational reinforcements (which the game does allow for, but Mr. Peck didn't use in his particular playthrough), the Iranians can't do anything militarily to stop the Israelis- although as the article points out, downing even a few planes would have a propaganda value all out of proportion to its actual military effect.

The only real hardened targets in the Iranian nuclear program are the underground uranium enrichment plants at Natanz and Fordow (which we called Qom in the game, since it was the nearest major city and the place name wasn't known when the game went to press). Everything else is out in the open and pretty vulnerable to precision-guided munitions.

 

INJUN_NC

2:52 PM ET

November 9, 2011

Is War Really a Game?

To reduce a disastrous (to the world) war between Israel and Iran to a computer game for the general public (and a biased one at that where Israel "Israel squeaks by with a victory") is an incredibly irresponsible exercise of a sick mind. Sure, it will make a few bucks for its designers and developers -- but is it the right thing to do? I don't believe so.

The game's hypothetical model based on assumptions and heresy glamorizes the odious and gives comfort to warmongers. It reinforces the belief that there can be victors and vanquished in a major conflict in our day and age. All our 'gaming' of our second invasion of Iraq didn't seem to lead us to victory. Does the fact that we removed Saddam Hussein with relative ease make us 'victorious'? Perhaps, at a tactical level. All sober analysis points to the fact that the opposite is true. That we did a major favor to Iran by removing its sworn enemy, and have harmed our interests in that part of the world in a myriad ways. Are we victorious in Afghanistan after ten years of blood-letting there? Surely, our planners (and GW) must have 'gamed' these wars using similar tools.

Regarding Israel's military superiority (as measured in this game in terms superior weaponry, etc.), may I remind the readers that when Nazi Germany invaded the Soviet Union in June of 1941, they too were deemed superior to the Soviets (on paper) in all known metrics of war. So much so that the Nazi 'gamers' assumed their campaign would be over within a few months -- definitely before the onset of the harsh Russian winter. History records how their bitter disappointment.

Perhaps, the biggest fallacy of such a game is to exclude the obvious from its 'modeling'. Like resources that feed the wars and logistics that keep them going. And questions like: does Israel have the oil and gas reserves of Iran? Can a nation of fractious seven million win a sustained conflict with an ancient nation of 90 million? And what would it cost Uncle Sam to wage this war (on behalf of Israel) 8000 miles from the comforts of our shores? Do we have the resources to do so?

Enuf said.

 

MEDOLOSS

3:03 PM ET

November 9, 2011

What will happen if?

Hi there,

Real life is not a game, in the game if we made something wrong we can go back to the saved game and correct what we have done, but in real life nothing can be gone the same way in the game.

So what if Israel started destroying nuclear facilities of Iran and Iran started raining Israel (small area) with all what it have may be they have finished even one nuclear bomb? I think this will be a disaster in the whole area.

In my opinion Israel will never do something like that, trust me. These people don't start a war except if they are 100 percent sure that they will win with the least number of soldiers killed from their side and I don't think that this will be the case if they started a war with Iran. This time America will not be able to support Israel as usual as they already have enough problems inside and outside the US.

Cheers,
Medo
Admin of How to lose belly fat and where to buy hydroxycut

 

INJUN_NC

3:38 PM ET

November 9, 2011

Difference between Devanagri and Nastaliq

Just noticed two more idiocies in this so called game!

1) To give the game an exotic look, the designers write 'Persian Incursion' using what seems like Devnagri script used to write Sanskrit and other Indian languages (with a line over it and dots). Devnagri has NOTHING to do with Iran!!

Don't they know that the script for written Farsi is Nastaliq?

2) The caption at the bottom of the game jacket/cover reads: "Israel Deals With The Iranian Nightmare"!!!

History will record which really is a bigger nightmare for us Americans and the world.

 

JEFF DOUGHERTY

3:48 PM ET

November 9, 2011

Just as a point of fact, I'm

Just as a point of fact, I'm not sure where the "Iranian nightmare" tag came from. The game's actual subtitle is "Israel and a Nuclear Iran".

 

MCGANNONMA

4:00 PM ET

November 9, 2011

Air Defense, Missile Forces

Did you distinguish between the regular forces and the IRGC forces? Because there is a difference among the air defense, air force and missile forces between the regular military and the IRGC.

While the IRIAF certainly is not going to be able to go head to head with the IAF in air to air combat, they do have a considerable amount of AAA and SAM sites. Not as dense as say north korea, but the IAF is not going to fly in and out scott free and not loose any aircraft not when the Iranians are expecting attacks agains their nuclear sites.

How about retaliation with all of their tactical missiles? If we're assuming Iran is going all out here with a counter attack, then wouldn't they launch everything they had towards Israeli?

 

INJUN_NC

4:46 PM ET

November 9, 2011

Thanks for the clarification Jeff....

which makes this write up even more ominous....

 

JEFF DOUGHERTY

4:51 PM ET

November 9, 2011

Iranian Air Defenses

We did differentiate between the IRIAF and the IRGC in the game, although Iran also has a national air defense organization to facilitate communications between the regular Air Force and IRGC elements. The IRGC contribution to air defense is mostly optically aimed AA guns and some short-ranged SAMs- they used to have their own F-7 fighters, but they've been transferred to the regular IRIAF.

The Israelis are going to be using GPS-guided glide bombs for the most part, which have a long enough range that they can be launched outside the reach of optically aimed AAA and MANPADS. A lot of Iran's SAMs are also old technology, but you're right that the IAF is definitely going to take losses. The distance involved is a big factor in that- even if an airplane is only damaged by a near miss, it's a loooooong way back to Israel.

Iranian IRBMs are indeed part of the game, both the Shahab-3 and a projected new weapon called the Sajjil-2. The Iranian player has the option to use them against Israel or not, as he thinks best for his particular strategy.

 

GURINGO

9:51 AM ET

November 10, 2011

MEDOLOSS

I found your 2-bit spam video quite amusing, anyone tell you you sound like Pedro from Napoleon Dynamite..? What's next, a "How To Increase Brain Cells" for morons on the go? Anyhoot, spammers and pill peddlers should be hung by their entrails, belly-fat problem solved.

 

RICHARD CARDULLA

12:04 PM ET

November 10, 2011

the real target

The game is defective because it assumes that Isreal will attack Iranian nuclear sites, whereas the real Isreali intent is to de-capitate the government and military of Iran and therefore bring about regime change. It is further expected by the Isrealis that the US will be drawn in to finish the job, thereby eliminating the need for a second Isreali strike. All Isreali attacks on Iran will be missiles, launched from Isreal or its submarines.
Isreali airforce will similtaniosly attack Lebanon with bunker buster bombs before invasion, occupation, settlement, and annexation up to the Latani River. (read the 1950's autobiagrahy of former Isreali PM M. Begin, "The Revolt".
Your game is fatally flawed because it assumes that the first Isreali attacks would be against nuclear sites and not Iranian military site and command and control. By attacking these sites Isreal limits, if not eliminates, any retalitory stikes by Iran or their allies.

Back to the drawing board.

 

MCGANNONMA

12:27 PM ET

November 10, 2011

I will have to pick up a copy

as an air/air defense analyst, I'm definetly interested in seeing a copy

 

JOHNBOY4546

7:29 AM ET

November 11, 2011

"most of Iran's air defenses are equipped with 1960s and 70s"

The Iranians don't actually need to have the "better dogfighter" to win this battle, do they?

The Israeli aim is to drop Big Bombs on Precision Targets
The Iranian aim is to prevent those bombs from landing on those targets.

Now, don't get me wrong: an IDF F-16 or F-15 configured for dogfighting is obviously going to be a vastly superior air-to-air weapon than an F-4 Phantom.

But an F-16 toting four bunker-buster bombs is going to be about as manouverable as a Dump Truck, and if it has an F-4 on its tail then the Israeli pilot will have no option but to ditch those weapons so he can turn to face his opponent.

At which point, of course, the Iranian pilot may as well head for home because he has already won the encounter.

Correct?

After all, once that IDF hotshot has ditched his bombload he can't actually land in the Iranian desert to bolt 'em back onto the wings.......

 

JEFF DOUGHERTY

12:28 PM ET

November 11, 2011

The above is true, and it's

The above is true, and it's certainly something the Israelis have to deal with- whether by sending more F-16s loaded with AMRAAMs as escorts, launching diversionary strikes or decoys to draw off Iranian fighters, sending extra strikers so that they're not screwed if some have to abort, or all of the above. I didn't mean to say that the Israelis could completely ignore the Iranian air defenses, because they can't- but our experience in testing and playing the game has been that they can neutralize them pretty consistently by intelligently applying their technological advantages, at least enough that they can get in, hit what they want to hit, and get out with acceptable losses.

The political consequences, of course, are much harder to predict or contain for the Israelis, and that's where the real challenge comes in, IMO.

 

JOHNBOY4546

2:15 AM ET

November 12, 2011

"it's certainly something the Israelis have to deal with"

"whether by sending more F-16s loaded with AMRAAMs"

Send MORE F-16s?

Where does it get MORE F-16s from, exactly?

"launching diversionary strikes"

Again, that assumes that the IDF has an unlimited supply of F-16s, which is simply not true.

"sending extra strikers so that they're not screwed if some have to abort"

Again, you are assuming that Israel can maintain an infinite sortie rate, and if it needs to conjure up another couple of squadrons, well, that's gonna be As Easy As.

Every fighter escort is a plane taken away from the strike force.
Every diversionary sortie requires More Tanker Aircraft.
Every additional sortie is a s.t.r.a.i.n. on the IDF's resources, and those resources simply aren't inexhaustable.

Taking out the Iranian facilities isn't an easy task for the IDF, and all the Iranians have to do is Make It Harder; it doesn't have to Shoot Them All Done.

Heck, it can defeat the Israelis without downing a single plane: all it has to do is make that task so hard that it is beyond the IDF's combat capability.

 

JOHNBOY4546

7:27 AM ET

November 12, 2011

"whether by sending more F-16s loaded with AMRAAMs as escorts"

Not meaning to harp on this, but the NUMBER of F-16 "Sufa" fighters in the IDF order of battle is known, and it is finite.

101, to be precise.

The Israelis would love to pitch every single one of them into the bombing campaign against the Iranian facilities.

But each one that has to be assigned to "fighter escort" has to be subtracted from the bombing force: you can not simply conjure those escorts out of thin air.

And every single one of them that is assigned to a "diversionary operation" must be subtracted from the main bombing effort: you can not simply conjure more bombers out of thin air.

There must come a point when the number of those subtractions becomes so large that the task becomes unattainable with the planes that you have left for the BOMBING campaign, at which point the Iranians have won and the Israelis have lost.

That is all that the Iranian air defences have to do i.e. to pose enough of a threat that the IDF can't afford to deploy Every Single Plane They Have as a bomb-truck.

Because if the IDF can't do that then it simply doesn't have enough planes to do the job.

 

JEFF DOUGHERTY

12:16 PM ET

November 12, 2011

The Israelis do indeed have a

The Israelis do indeed have a finite number of aircraft they could commit to bombing Iran. As you noted, about four squadrons of F-16Is (Israeli squadrons are 24 a/c at full strength) and one of F-15Is. Thing is, it's simply not true that the Israelis have to have every one of those aircraft dropping bombs on target to knock out Iran's nuclear program. Not even close. Just to give one example, the full-strength F-15I squadron has a decent chance of knocking out Natanz by itself. Add in a dozen F-16s dropping bombs and it's a done deal. That leaves plenty left over for other duties like backup strike, SAM suppression, and decoy shooting.

You're right in that the Iranian air defenses can force the Israelis to operate in large strike packages, limiting them to one or two missions a day and increasing the time needed for the overall campaign. But right now they just don't have the technological moxie to stop the IDF.

 

JOHNBOY4546

6:57 PM ET

November 12, 2011

Time is not their friend.

"You're right in that the Iranian air defenses can force the Israelis to operate in large strike packages, limiting them to one or two missions a day and increasing the time needed for the overall campaign"

Can I just point out that there are a vast number of uninformed opinion-makers out there who are talking in terms of an Israeli STRIKE to take down these Iranian facilities, and not an Israeli CAMPAIGN.

If it gets down to an aerial CAMPAIGN then the clock starts ticking the moment the first Israeli planes drop the first bombs, because an Israeli attack that *doesn't* have a prior Green Light from the USA (and we are all making that assumption, no?) isn't going to last very long before the pressure to call a halt becomes irresistable.

The Israelis have to do this quickly, or not bother attempting to do it at all.

They simply can't do it quickly, and NOT doing it quickly is the difference between being "the plucky little country that could" and "the rogue state that is running amok".

It's nice to be the former, not so crash-hot being the latter.

 

JEFF DOUGHERTY

10:34 AM ET

November 14, 2011

Yep. We think they've got

Yep. We think they've got about a week, at the outside. It's why Persian Incursion ends after 21 8-hour turns, unless somebody else forces a sudden death before then.

The thing is, there are going to have to be multiple strikes. Talking about a single strike to end Iran's nuclear program is, as you pointed out, ignorant. There are too many targets, requiring too much ordnance dropped by bombers who need their own escorts, and only so many Israeli planes to go around. Once you accept that there need to be multiple strikes, which is just physical reality, you no longer need every single plane to be a bomb dropper, and you can reallocate your resources to neutralize Iran's air defenses.

There are still some constraints imposed on Israel. For example, one option we looked at was kicking the whole thing off with a Desert Storm style assault on Iran's air defense system itself, hitting early warning radars, SAM sites, and airbases until the defenses covering each nuclear site were basically gone. Our conclusion was that, while ideal from a purely military standpoint, this was a non-starter because doing it with the forces on hand would just take too much time.

 

A11328338

1:56 AM ET

November 16, 2011

The Israelis would love to

The Israelis would love to pitch every single one of them into the bombing campaign against the Iranian facilities.

But each one that has to be assigned to "fighter escort" has to be subtracted from the bombing force: you can not simply conjure those escorts out of thin air.SWF Converter Mac

 

AMERICAN JEWISH REALIST

7:06 AM ET

November 9, 2011

Does Win Make Israel Safer?

Seems the most important flaw in this "game" is that even if you win at this moment as you claim, what happens going forward for the decades to come? No doubt Israel would become more at risk with a larger pool of emboldened, as Bolton/McCain/Lieberman/Lindsay/Kristol/AIPAC+ would scream, enemies more enabled to cause significant damage to tiny Israel from every border via ground, sea and air.

 

GRANT

1:06 PM ET

November 9, 2011

They do mention that the real

They do mention that the real 'win' condition is to win politically. If Israel could (which is by no means certain) Iran might delay on new nuclear facilities and Iran might decide to increase supplies to anti-Israeli groups. It's really hard to say because we don't have a definite guide on the mentality of Iran's important groups and leaders.

 

ADANTIGUS

9:08 AM ET

November 9, 2011

The only winning move is not to play

Why do hits on the reactors or on Israeli civilian targets *lower* the morale of that side? Wasn't the lesson of strategic bombing that it actually strengthens the resolve of the people hit? I'm thinking of the Blitz, here.

Wouldn't each "successful" hit only make that side more eager to fight to the end?

Have "successful" terrorist attacks against the US made it less eager to fight wars abroad?

Seems like this game has that particular aspect of psychology backwards.

 

JEFF DOUGHERTY

10:29 AM ET

November 9, 2011

Bombing and Morale

As the guy responsible for that particular aspect of the design, I guess I can weigh in on this. :) The morale system in Persian Incursion represents a lot of things, such as public opinion, political will of a given country's leadership, and perception of how well the conflict is going.

Hits on Iranian reactors lower Iran's "morale" because if Israel can demonstrate to Iran's leadership that it can knock out Iranian nuclear targets whenever it chooses to and that it is willing to carry through that course of action, it helps convince Iran's leadership that they have no chance of carrying through their nuclear program in the face of Israeli opposition. It may also make the Iranian people question whether having their own nuclear program is worth the price they're paying. Of course, it may not, and that's why the effect of any given strike is uncertain in the game. The Israelis can't know ahead of time how far they're going to have to go in order to win. But we mapped all of those aspects onto a single "morale" value for the sake of keeping the game simple enough to play.

Hits on civilian targets are more problematic, but I look at it this way. Attacks on civilian targets can increase resolve, but they can also cause war-weariness and make people question whether the course of action their nation's leaders are pursuing is really in their best interests. This is particularly true if the military campaign is not going well in general- I'm thinking particularly of Israel's most recent adventure in Lebanon here. If Israel takes some hits from Iranian missiles but manages to achieve at least some of its objectives, it can still come out ahead on morale. If not, it can lose morale as its people see themselves suffering attacks for very little gain.

That's the logic, anyway. You may not agree with it, but I think it's at least defensible.

 

JACOB BLUES

11:51 AM ET

November 9, 2011

Jeff thanks for the additional insight into the game

But between Peck's article and your comments it seems like there should be a massive game of Diplomacy (TM) being played in real-time along side the kinetic actions in Persian Incursion.

 

JEFF DOUGHERTY

2:12 PM ET

November 9, 2011

Well...

...that is why we included the diplomatic/intelligence portion of the game. The idea was to give the Iranian and Israeli players the chance to sway various regional and world powers over to their side and to manage the political consequences of their actions, while not requiring a dozen "neutral" players to keep things going. :-) Did we succeed? You'll have to try it yourself and tell me.

 

SIDROCK23

12:44 PM ET

November 9, 2011

lolol..idiots

somethings just can't be inputed into a game or simulator. so it appears that you have forgotten the iran-iraq war in which iran did not think twice about letting 250 thousand of its boys die at the hands of the U.S backed sadaam hussein and his iraqi military. u are also forgetting that one of iran's main religious pillars is the concept of martydom so therefore they would not have a problem in recruitting thousands or maybe even a million or two men to rally around the flag and seek revenge on everyone involved whether its limited to U.S & baby israel or extends out to saudi arabia, turkey, iraq (and u stupidly leave out afghanistan) what makes u think iran won't change its current view of the kurds and arm, finance, and train them to carry out attacks in turkey. saudi arabia has always had a chicken shit military and is a laughing stock when it comes to military manuvers heck they can't even damage the rebels across the border in yemen, which by the way is another aspect u idiots and your gaming systems failed to address. and of course who can forget about the taliban that is currently giving an ass kicking to u white boys in afgahnistan. the loss of civilian life to 70 million iranians would not be as significant as it would be to 7.5 million israelis. u are also forgetting the fact that places like dubai n qatar where the iranians have assets would become hunting grounds for kidnappings and killing of white boys walking around. combine all these factors with weak and fragile economies of britian and U.S with the doubling of gas prices and u are asking for a hot mess. now ask urselves if satisfying baby israel, and making sure it doesn't crap in its diapers is worth all this. in reality, this isn't a game, think u idiots.

 

GRANT

1:42 PM ET

November 9, 2011

Wargames allow for theories

Wargames allow for theories to be tested. Obviously they can't predict everything nor can they go further than the assumptions of the people involved but they do have value, something made clear by the fact that virtually every nation uses them. Also please use proper grammar and punctuation, it's painful to try to read that.

 

RACQUIELLI

12:46 PM ET

November 9, 2011

What About Anti-Government Iranians?

What about the possibility of pro-democracy Iranians taking advantage of an Israeli attack to revolt against the government? Was this programmed into the game? The review didn't mention it. Or was it just assumed by the game designers that all Iranian citizens would support the government in the event of an attack? These massive protests against the regime started in mid-2009 and so predated the game's creation.

 

SIDROCK23

1:06 PM ET

November 9, 2011

n what happens when the

n what happens when the husband, wife, parent, brother, sister, etc of one of the so called "pro-democracy" iranian is killed by these attacks. what happens when bombs fall on their homes, schools, hospitals. don't give me that well we are going to use "smart bombs" because we see what happens with those daily in afghanistan and pakistan and what happened in iraq. bombing them would gurantee ahmedijidad a life long presidency.

 

GRANT

1:36 PM ET

November 9, 2011

The militant Iranian groups

The militant Iranian groups aren't very impressive, not even the ethnic ones like the Baloch nationalists or the Kurds. As for the 2009 protests, the Iranian government cracked down on them fairly well and the conservatives are in clear control. I don't consider an uprising likely unless the government suffers a clearly crushing defeat. Additionally it probably is safe to assume that the majority of citizens would either give support to the Iranian state or at least grudging acquiescence, going by historical reactions.

 

JEFF DOUGHERTY

2:05 PM ET

November 9, 2011

Anti-Government Iranians

We do indeed have an Iranian Domestic Opinion track, which can start the game at different positions depending on the scenario being played. One possible strategy is for Israel to try to push that track all the way to one side, at which point anti-government activity in Iran becomes so intense that the Iranian government is forced to seek a negotiated settlement. Of course, there's always the question of *how* to do that, but that's why you get paid the big bucks...

Our general approach to Persian Incursion was to "assume" as little as possible and allow people to test their own scenarios and assumptions. Depending on the scenario, Iran's populace can be foursquare behind their government's pursuit of nuclear armaments, or the country can be simmering on the verge of revolt.

 

JACOB BLUES

3:32 PM ET

November 9, 2011

In regards to civilian damage Sid

Unless Iran put its nuclear weapons capability in the middle of Qom or Tehran, its unlikely that civilians would be harmed in an attack on Iranian military facilities, which appears to be where the nuclear programs are based.

 

JEFF DOUGHERTY

5:49 PM ET

November 9, 2011

Iranian Nuclear Facilities...

...do tend to be pretty far from population centers. Security, I'd imagine, and the fact that I think NIMBY is probably alive and well even in Iran.

We also left facilities that appeared to be wholly or mostly civilian in nature off the target list, like the light-water power reactor at Bushehr and the research facility in Tehran.

 

GLORIAMORFIN

12:57 PM ET

November 9, 2011

Offer

my best friend's mom makes $77 an hour on the computer. She has been out of job for 9 months but last month her check was $7487 just working on the computer for a few hours.
Read about it here C A S H S H A R P . C O M

 

GRANT

1:40 PM ET

November 9, 2011

It might have been a mistake

It might have been a mistake to leave groups like Hamas and Hezbollah out, but we should not automatically presume that they would launch attacks on Israel. The two might dislike Israel and have a better opinion of Iran, but they also have their own domestic interests. After the U.S is overwhelmingly on the side of Israel compared to Iran but I doubt that the U.S would give Israel anything more than some political cover and logistical support (and even that might not last long).

 

AMINAKIS

4:12 PM ET

November 9, 2011

So what if Israel started

So what if Israel started destroying nuclear facilities of Iran and Iran started raining Israel (small area) with all what it have may be they have finished even one nuclear bomb? I think this will be a disaster in the whole area.

In my opinion Israel will never do something like that, trust me. These people don't start a war except if they are adult movies 100 percent sure that they will win with the least number of soldiers killed from their side and I don't think that this will be the case if they started a war with Iran. porno day This time America will not be able to support Israel as usual as they already have enough problems inside and outside the US.

Cheers,

 

BAYONETBRANT

4:38 PM ET

November 9, 2011

It's easy to criticize

Tell you what folks...

Illusionaz, SidRock, Adantigus, Injun, and rest - it's pretty darn easy to sit back and sling rocks at someone who has actually created something, with a lot of thought, development, research, and testing.
It's a lot harder for you to bother to either (a) do your own research and analysis and development, or (b) try to understand the designers.
You're certainly welcome to take the lazy way out and call someone an idiot for something you disagree with. But don't expect anyone to take you seriously when you clearly have never played the game, are drawing conclusions from one review and a few pictures, have no idea of the actual content of the game, and the best you can come up with are "the designers are clearly stupid because they don't know what typeface they should've used."
Graphic designers create images for marketing purposes; game designers create games for entertainment/education. I'm pretty sure the game designers weren't dictating font choices for the packaging.

So while you sit in the comfort of your easy chair, maligning someone else's hard work, keep in mind the tiny world you live in - that of a critic. Try expanding your horizons by creating something that's been through the level of research, testing, and development of this game and then get back to us.

Can a game replicate reality? Nope. As the adage goes: "all models are wrong, but some models are useful." Keep it within the scope of the model - exploring possibilities within the conflict without actually spilling any blood - and it's a remarkable game. Some things are explicitly *in* the model; some were explicitly left *out*, often for reasons of game balance or elegance of design. That's part of creating a professional product. You should try it some time.

 

AMANAFRIDGE

5:03 PM ET

November 9, 2011

Grief

Greece was not alone in the ancient world. Egypt was flourishing. Other civilizations were developing around the Mediterranean. One of the largest and most powerful was the Persian Empire.

The Greek world was tiny. It covered a small area at the southern tip of the Greek peninsula. The Persian Empire was huge. It stretched from the Mediterranean Sea all the way to the Indus River Valley.

Remember all those towns the ancient Greeks built in early times? Some were still flourishing. The Greek towns located along the Turkish coast had fallen under Persian rule. The Greek colonists were unhappy about it.

Athens sent supplies to help them out. Those supplies included weapons. Persia would have noticed the Greeks sooner or later, but this activity most definitely caught their eye.

The Persian army had no doubt that the Greeks would be easy to conquer. The Greeks were outnumbered - what chance would they have? The Persians laughed at the thought of the battle ahead.

What the Persians forgot, or perhaps they just did not know, was that the Greeks were incredible warriors. Athens had a highly capable navy, with ships that were tiny and easy to maneuver. The Spartan army was terrifying.

The Persians came three times, and fought three huge battles - Marathon, Thermopylae, and Salamis. Each time the Persians were convinced they could easily conquer the Greeks. Each time, the Greeks drove them away.

Xerxes, the Persian King, was furious at the result of the first two battles with the now hated Greeks. For the third major battle, the Battle of Salamis, he sent an incredible number of Persian ships to wage war on Greece. He didn't want just to win. He wanted Greece to be totally destroyed.

Xerxes (nicknamed "Xerx the Jerk" by some of our students) was so confident of success that he had his slaves carry a golden throne from Persia, and set it up on a hillside overlooking the Greek harbor, so he could be comfortable while he watched the Greeks die.

But the Greeks did not die. Their small ships could maneuver better. The Greeks were able to toss burning wood aboard the Persian ships and get safely away. The Persians had to abandon their burning ships. Those Persian sailors who made it to land were greeted by the Spartan army. The Spartans killed them all.

When Xerxes saw how the battle was going, he ran away and left his army behind. While Athens burned the Persian ships, Sparta left some men on the beach to handle any Persians who made it to shore Cruise agency. The rest of the Sparta army marched north and defeated the Persian army coming in from that direction.

This is what the greek did and what the ameericans are doing ??

Think

Please think.

Thanks

 

MUSE

6:48 PM ET

November 9, 2011

Nukes for Iran are good for the middle east power balance

Russia has rejected as "unacceptable" EU calls for further sanctions against Iran in the wake of a UN report that Tehran had experimented with nuclear weapon designs, in effect guaranteeing that the international response would be muted.

Moscow's reaction to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report was delivered by the deputy foreign minister Gennady Gatilov, who spoke on Wednesdayduring a visit to Moscow by a senior Iranian official, Ali Baqeri.

"Any additional sanctions against Iran will be seen in the international community as an instrument for regime change in Tehran," the Interfax news agency quoted Gatilov as saying. "That approach is unacceptable to us, and the Russian side does not intend to consider such proposals."

Earlier in the day, France had called for a security council meeting on Iran and its foreign minister Alain Juppé said sanctions against Tehran should be raised to an "unprecedented scale" if Iran fails to cooperate with the investigations into past work on developing a nuclear warhead. In a report issued on Tuesday, the UN agency said it had found credible evidence that Iran had been carrying out experiments aimed at designing a bomb on a substantial scale until late 2003, and may have continued work on a lower level after that time.

Responding to the report for the first time on Wednesday, the Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, attacked the credibility of the IAEA. "Why are you ruining the prestige of the agency for absurd US claims?" he asked, in a speech to a crowd of several thousand people in the city of Shahr-e-Kord in central Iran.

Iran has always rejected allegations it had a nuclear weapons programme, insisting that its aims behind its uranium enrichment efforts and extensive atomic research work have been entirely peaceful, and within Iran's rights.

"This nation won't retreat one iota from the path it is going," Ahmadinejad said.

In a statement to the House of Commons, William Hague said: "The assertions of recent years by Iran that their nuclear programme is wholly for peaceful purposes are completely discredited by this report."

The foreign secretary said that if Iran failed to enter serious negotiations on its programme: "We must continue to increase the pressure and we are considering with our partners a range of additional measures to that effect."

Hague, however, did not go as far as his French counterpart in calling for a security council session, but noted that the IAEA member states would meet in a board session next week. The board could opt, by majority vote, to refer Iran once more to the security council, but UK diplomats believe such a referral would be pointless in the face of the continued threat of Russian and Chinese vetoes.

A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, Hong Lei, criticised Iran and the IAEA, calling on Tehran to be "serious and flexible" and to cooperate with inspections and adding pointedly that the UN agency should be "objective".

In Israel it was reported that prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu had ordered his cabinet ministers not to speak publicly about the report, letting other world capitals take the lead. In the run up to its publication, however, Israeli officials had described it as the world's last chance for a peaceful resolution of the Iranian nuclear crisis, while the Israeli military carried out high-profile missile tests and long-range aerial bombing drills.

Germany said it firmly rejected any military action, calling instead for "new, stronger sanctions". Its foreign minister, Guido Westerwelle, said talks were underway between EU member states and international partners on new sanctions, which he called "unavoidable".

Diplomats and observers said that in view of Russian and Chinese opposition, any new punitive measures are likely to be incremental, possibly including a tightening of EU financial and travel sanctions to match US sanctions, and addition of more targets to the UN financial sanctions list.

Reports from Washington on Wednesday night said that new unilateral US sanctions were expected next week, enlarging the list of Iranian individuals and organisations subject to restrictive financial and travel measures. Anything stronger is likely to be vetoed by Russia and China, they said. The response of the Obama administration appears to have been muted for similar reasons, and Washington is close to exhausting its options for applying unilateral pressure.

The deep international divide over how to deal with Iran's nuclear programme is increasingly threatening to undermine the IAEA's standing as an independent arbiter, and politicise its work. Both Russia and China had taken the unusual step of asking the agency's director general, Yukiya Amano, not to publish the annex in Tuesday's report on the possible military dimensions to the nuclear programme. Mark Fitzpatrick, a nuclear proliferation expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, said that IAEA Non-Aligned Movement states had also considered asking Amano not to include information received from western intelligence agencies, but the report was issued before they made a formal demand.

Fitzpatrick wrote that despite Ahmadinejad's defiant response: "At least some powerful figures in Iran realise that the Islamic Republic needs to do something to relieve the increasing pressure it is under over the nuclear file." He argued that it was still possible for international negotiations on Iran's nuclear programme to resume, possibly over a proposal raised by Ahmadinejad in September to stop making 20% enriched uranium in return for foreign-made fuel for a research reactor in Tehran. He said: "Those who want to stem the talk of war should encourage Tehran to pursue such confidence-building measures."

 

THIRDWORLDCHARLIE

10:29 PM ET

November 9, 2011

 

AGE OF REASON

4:03 AM ET

November 10, 2011

But what happens after the game?

The game simulates a military conflict (and perhaps its immediate aftermath). But the important question is "What happens after the game is over?" Has Israel managed to destroy every spinning centrifuge? Evey nuclear scientist or the knowledge to build the necessary equipment?

It would be smarter (and a lot cheaper) for Iranians to set up centrifuges hidden away in unknown locations, that to try and improve their air defense systems to protect known locations such as natanz or qum. Once the conflict is over, Iran would have a great excuse to throw out the IAEA inspectors and resume its work on building a bomb.

Will military superiority or even a victory in a conflict, gurantee that Iran will never again attempt to build a bomb? Or will it do the opposite? And now with no inspectors and iran no longer bound by any obligation and moving ahead at full speed, what is the west to do? Another simulation perhaps?

 

JEFF DOUGHERTY

2:54 PM ET

November 10, 2011

One of the things we discuss

One of the things we discuss in the game is that it's impossible for a military campaign to guarantee Iran will never, ever develop a nuclear weapon. You can't kill every scientist and guarantee the destruction of every centrifuge. What we think it *could* do is convince Iran's leaders that they can't carry through a successful nuclear weapons program against Israeli opposition.

Of course, to do that, bombing out the nuclear sites isn't enough. Israel has to do it rapidly enough and at an acceptable enough political cost that the Iranians are convinced that they could do it again if need be. That's what really makes it a challenge for Israel.

 

URGELT

9:33 AM ET

November 10, 2011

Gaming Conflict

Games like this one fulfill a purpose, but it's not a predictive purpose.

This is what you learn from war gaming simulations:

- What variables the game designers think are significant and how they should be weighted. This is good to know, since game designers have usually spent a lot more time than you or me thinking about these variables and pinning them down based on real world information.

- How even minor changes in variables can produce major deviations in outcomes. This is pretty much a truism in complex systems. War games generally qualify.

- How bad judgment or poor timing on a player's part can damage outcomes. (Harpoon, which I've played off and on for about twenty-five years, is a particularly good game for demonstrating this principle.)

And if it's a really good simulation, you'll learn:

- In war, everyone loses. Winners are just losers who lost less, and that's only certain in the short run.

The game described by the author demonstrates this principle: the primary goodie you can win is less damage to public opinion than the other guy sustains. (Public opinion is definitely a short-term, fickle thing to win. The game designers are clever to make this a feature of their game.)

So there are lots of reasons to play. But none of those reasons is that the game will predict the outcome of a real war.

It might. But confidence is low. Reality has much more complexity than the best war game, and the people playing for real stakes are not always rational actors and do not always limit themselves as rational people might.

Logical outcomes are assured in a rules-bound war game. In real life, things can get a whole lot messier, and not every effect can be traced to a cause.

 

A11328338

2:00 AM ET

November 16, 2011

Our general approach to

Our general approach to Persian Incursion was to "assume" as little as possible and allow people to test their own scenarios and assumptions. Depending on the scenario, Iran's populace can be foursquare behind their government's pursuit of nuclear armaments, or the country can be simmering on the verge of revolt.YouTube To MP4 Converter

 

KXB

1:23 PM ET

November 10, 2011

Why bother with a game?

We already have a real life instance of Israeli airstrikes failing to achieve a goal - the 2006 war with Hezbollah. Arab government support for Israeli's strikes lasted 3 days, and when it was clear that Israeli airstrikes were not putting a dent in Hezbollah's ability to fire missiles into Israel, that Arab support evaporated. Once Israel began a ground campaign (under American pressure), the poor performance of Israeli troops, used to dealing Palestinians throwing stones, shocked the Israeli public. All Israeli airstrikes achieved was dead civilians and a bunch of shattered buildings.

So in 2007, when Israel approached the Bush White House to assist them in preparing a strike on Iran, Israel's failure was still fresh, and Bush turned them down. Why should Americans believe that Israel is any more capable of striking dozens of targets hundreds of miles away, when they could not deal with Hezbollah, which had no air defenses or outside assistance?

 

JEFF DOUGHERTY

2:49 PM ET

November 10, 2011

We did consider...

...the failed Lebanon campaign while designing Persian Incursion, but the big difference between it and the campaign we posit is that there are many fewer targets for Israel to hit this time around and they're much easier to find. Hezbollah had dozens if not hundreds of unguided rocket launch sites in Lebanon, placed as close as possible to civilian targets and set up for "shoot and scoot" firing to make counterstrikes as difficult as possible. There are, at best, four really important Iranian nuclear sites (Natanz, Qom, Arak, and Isfahan), all of which have known locations, are completely immobile, and are located several miles away from any defense civilian areas. That makes striking them with conventional munitions orders of magnitude easier than the task the Israelis set themselves in Lebanon.

You're right that there are compounding factors- distance, and the Iranian air defenses. Distance is the big one- Iran's air defenses can't be ignored, but with a modicum of effort the Israelis should be able to neutralize them. Staging a strike all the way to Iran will be hard for Israel, requiring pretty much all of their tanker assets and at least the passive support of *somebody* along the way, but I don't think that's insurmountable either.

 

JEFF DOUGHERTY

2:49 PM ET

November 10, 2011

Aargh

"defense civilian areas" = "dense civilian areas", above.

 

JGARBUZ

6:34 PM ET

November 10, 2011

Any attack by Israel on Iran will have to be nuclear, or fail.

There is no way that Israel can attack Iran with conventional weapons and win. Iran is a powerful country, conventionally speaking. Only a nuclear attack with a few dozen Jericho ballistic missiles armed with nuclear warheads can do the job. The Israelis themselves know well enough that a conventional attack will fail, and Israel will lose. It's either nuclear, or nothing.

Maybe the US can do it, but even for the US a conventional war with Iran would be very hard to win.

If we are convinced that Iran is illegally developing nuclear weapons, we should give them an ultimatum, and if they fail to surrender, hit them with a devastating nuclear attack. Otherwise, anything else will be simply be not be winnable and very dangerous.

 

KEITHKDODSON

4:34 AM ET

November 11, 2011

WW3 is coming

I think the next wae with Iran will start the WW3, also heard that Israel will attack Iran by Christmas. I think also that only a nuclear attack will do that USA and Israel wants. I hope Eastern Europe will not enter the war. All the soldiers here are on steroids.

 

JOHNBOY4546

7:15 AM ET

November 11, 2011

Can I point out where the game is outdated?

It assumes that the Iranian army can't actually come to grips with the ground forces of the IDF i.e. this will be entirely a modern-day version Battle of Britain, albeit F-16s and missiles instead of Spitfires and Me109s.

That thinking will soon become outmoded, because the country that separates those two armies (i.e. Iraq) will soon be rendered defenceless when the US army withdraws.

Think about it..... think about it......

Israel will be irresistably tempted to violate Iraqi "neutrality" by using it as an air corridor (Iraqi Cessnas are unlikely to pose much of a threat), and while that may be superficially appealing it also gives the Iranians the excuse they need to march A Whoppin' Big Army across northern Iraq to link up with Syria.

Heck, it's not impossible that they would get the PERMISSION of the Iraqi govt for such a move.

And once you've got a Whoppin' Big Iranian Army inside Syria, well, Wheel South Gentlemen, because yonder lies Tel Aviv.....

 

GYPSYSNIPE

3:01 PM ET

November 11, 2011

bombs away

They won't make it past Kirkuk. They will be utterly destroyed by airpower.

 

JOHNBOY4546

5:16 PM ET

November 11, 2011

"They will be utterly destroyed by airpower."

May I suggest you look at a map?

If Iran moved troops through the northernmost part of Iraq then the majority of the IDF's airpower simply won't be able to reach them, and those that do possess the range
a) will be within range of Syrian AA missiles and
b) won't have the reserves to loiter.

And there is one fixed law of warfare: if you are going to destroy ground forces with airpower then your planes have to be able to l.o.i.t.e.r.

You overestimate the IDF's capabilities, and big time.

 

KXB

9:39 AM ET

November 11, 2011

Asymettric response

Why should Iran retaliate in the way Israel expects it to? Israel is a small, easily defensible country from conventional attack. But the U.S. has assets all over the world, and not all of them can be defended. For Tehran, it would be just as easy to attack U.S. assets, whether it is ships in the Persian Gulf, or a couple of suicide bombers on the NY subway, with the message that for every Israeli attack, Americans will pay the price.

For most countries, that would be enough to bring pressure on Israel to calm down. But, in the U.S., we already know that American lives can be sacrificed in the interests of a hard-right Israeli policy. Ask the men of the USS Liberty, Rachel Corrie, and Furkan Dogan.

 

CHRIS CARLSON

12:25 PM ET

November 11, 2011

Hezbollah

Jeff has been doing yeoman's work explaining some of the design ideas we dealt with when building Persian Incursion, so I thought I would jump in and help. In one area, the issue of Hezbollah, Mr. Peck noted in his review.

"But there's also the glaring omission of Iran's proxy force, Hezbollah. Bond, the game's creator, told me that the Lebanese organization
would not have time to react to an Israeli air campaign. This seems a bizarre oversight: Clearly, Hezbollah would have military as well as
political roles in the conflict. Ten minutes after the first bombs fell on Iran and well before Israel launched any follow-up strikes, southern
Lebanese skies would be milky with Katyusha rocket trails, and the swarm of Israeli Air Force drones on the border would fill the air with
the buzz of propellers."

While we don't mention either Hezbollah or Hamas explicitly in the rules themselves, both are discussed in the Briefing Package Booklet, we do
state on page 17 in the Rules Booklet that "...Iran will strike through its network of client terror groups." (3.5 Special Warfare/Terror Attacks).
Furthermore, the presumed primary method of attack by either Hamas or Hezbollah would be with rockets. That is why we included the Iron Dome
defense system as an Israeli upgrade. Iron Dome has only recently been deployed, it made its first battlefield intercept in April of this year, and its
specific purpose is to intercept Katyusha-like rockets in flight.

We don't deal a lot with Hamas or Hezbollah because there is little they can do militarily to stop Israel from carrying out their air campaign. A point
we make explicitly on page 16 of the Briefing Package Booklet. Both airbases that support the striking squadrons are no where near the Lebanon boarder and are unreachable by any known or rumored ballistic missile Hezbollah's inventory. They can affect Israeli morale, i.e. the Opinion Track, and this is discussed in section
3.5.1 Civil/Economic Targets (Rules Booklet). There was some debate on whether or not we should include military targets for the terrorist groups, but
for the most part there is little that they could do. Neither group would likely risk a ground campaign where they had to be on the offensive. Hezbollah
faired well against Israel in 2006 because they were on the defensive, in prepared position, against Israeli units in the open. The tables would be turned
if either Hamas or Hezbollah tried to take the fight to Israel. And as we've seen in both Iraq and Afghanistan, when insurgent/terror groups tried to fight a
more traditional force-on-force battle, they usually lost, and badly. Now, could we have included a MANPAD attack against one of the Israeli airbases as a
strike group leaves? Or more importantly against one of the aerial tankers? Certainly, and these can be added without a lot of effort.

My point is that while we do not deal with the terrorist threat to Israel in detail in Persian Incursion, neither do we ignore it. I will lay the cause of the confusion,
however, at our doorstep. We could have referenced both Hamas and Hezbollah directly in the rules, and provided a more explicit description of the nature of the
terror attacks and the Israeli counter in the Iron Dome system.

 

CHRIS CARLSON

12:51 PM ET

November 11, 2011

Response to Mr. Cardulla

Richard, you noted in your comment:

"The game is defective because it assumes that Isreal will attack Iranian nuclear sites, whereas the real Isreali intent is to de-capitate the government and military of Iran and therefore bring about regime change. It is further expected by the Isrealis that the US will be drawn in to finish the job, thereby eliminating the need for a second Isreali strike. All Isreali attacks on Iran will be missiles, launched from Isreal or its submarines."

We do provide the necessary information to wage a military strategy. That is for Israel to attack Iranian military installations, and in particular, air defense assets. The reason we don't focus on it is that it would take Israel more time, cost more to execute, and leave them open to additional losses by taking out the air defense system first. With the significant technological disparity between the Israeli and Iranian forces, we didn't see a compelling advantage to go that route - but we did leave it open for others to investigate if they wish. The bottom line is that eventually the Israeli player would have to choose between attacking the nuclear or oil infrastructure. We didn't include de-capitating the government as it doesn't solve the problem. Even the "moderates" in Iran support the nuclear program.

As for Israeli missile strikes, we looked hard at this and came to the following conclusions. First, Israel doesn't have enough ballistic missiles to wage a conventional campaign. Second, many of Israel's ballistic missiles don't have sufficient range to hit Iranian nuclear targets. And third, nothing in the Israeli missile inventory is going to penetrate the buried halls at Natanz. Now, if you argue the Israelis will use nuclear warheads, that pretty much ends the game and I'm fairly sure this would be the case of cutting off one's nose to spite one's face. It would be hard to claim an Israeli victory at this point.

As for submarines, the modified Harpoons with a land-attack capability can't reach any of the Iranian targets and it has a very small warhead. And its unlikely a heavily modified submarine-launched Turbo-Popeye, there is still debate as to whether or not it exists, would have a large enough warhead to cause any significant damage, and once again the halls at Natanz are untargetable. Yes, there is still the nuke option - but we've already gone down that road.

 

GYPSYSNIPE

3:05 PM ET

November 11, 2011

The Sky

You own the air, you own ur enemy. ANY armored column would be totally destroyed. It happened in Iraq, it will happen again. Cluster bombs dropped from 30,000 ft. stopped an Iraqi armored column in its tracks. The first third was destroyed, the rest ran from their tanks. Airpower is key.

 

JOHNBOY4546

5:25 PM ET

November 11, 2011

"You own the air, you own ur enemy."

Look at a map.

Note the distance between Israel and the northern-most point of Iraq.

Note that an Iranian army could indeed traverse the nothern-most point of Iraq and enter the safety of northern Syria.

Now, remind me again how Israeli airpower can "own" that airspace with the resources at its disposal while ALSO attacking Iranian missile sites and ALSO hunting down rumours of hidden nuclear sites with those very same resources.

"ANY armored column would be totally destroyed. It happened in Iraq, it will happen again"

Look at a map.

Note the distance between southern Iraq and the USA airbases in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

Now, take your notes on the distance between US airbases and southern Iraq, and compare them with your notes on the distance between IDF airbases and northern Iraq.

Note the extra zero at the end of the latter figure.

Now, as a final exercise: note the difference between the power-projection capabilities of the USAF and the IDF.

You. Give. The. Israelis. Far. To. Much. Credit.

 

JOHNBOY4546

7:09 PM ET

November 11, 2011

"Airpower is key"

Indeed, just as "Airpower is key" to destroying Iran's nuclear facilities.

Which would leave the Israelis with quite a dilemma, because however good those flyboys might be, one thing they CAN'T do is to be in two places at once.

All talk of an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear programme assumes a 110% effort: maximum sortie rates, every plane they got, no rest for the wicked, etc. etc. etc.

Soooooo, where does it get the *other* airpower to do as you suggest?

Put in a 220% effort, maybe?
Invent 48 hours in a day, perhaps?
Pull some more planes out of its back pocket, and more pilots out of thin air?

I'll note that the author made this comment:
"Militarily, the game demonstrates that Iran has as much chance of stopping an Israeli strike as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does of becoming an ayatollah"

Well, so sorry, but if Iran does as I suggest then that might not be the case i.e. Israel will be faced with either:
1) Allowing an Iranian army to pass unmolested into Syria, or
2) Halving the sortie rate against Iran so it can attack that expeditionary force.

Not much of a choice, is it?

 

CHRIS CARLSON

12:50 PM ET

November 12, 2011

"Airpower is key"

JOHNBOY4546, you made the following point:

"Which would leave the Israelis with quite a dilemma, because however good those flyboys might be, one thing they CAN'T do is to be in two places at once."

They don'y have to be. Only five Israeli squadrons have the necessary range to get to Iran and back - and these aircraft still require inflight refueling. This leaves another nine squadrons (seven F-16 and two F-15) to handle the issue you have raised. Also, please realize that Israeli squadrons are extraordinarily large - basically double the size of an equivalent US squadron - with 24 aircraft each. And this doesn't include any of the UAV/UCAV assets.

I agree that Iranian army units could traverse northern Iraq, it is feasible. But to do so quickly and enable them to get across on one tank of fuel they would have to use the road network. Where they would be quite vulnerable to attack. Particularly as they can expect limited to no air cover. The majority of Iranian tanks have an un-refueled range of 250 - 300 miles. Some can go a bit further, those of Russian design (T-62s/T-72s) with extra external fuel tanks, but even then its only about 380 - 400 miles. But this is road range, cross country range is approximately 25% to 30% lower. Regardless of the route, it would require a significant logistics train to get such a force to Syria. And logistics is a major Iranian weakness. The Artesh and Pasdaran armies are defensively oriented and lack the logistics to support a long-range offensive operation. This came to haunt them during the Iran-Iraq War when they were only going into southern Iraq.

 

JOHNBOY4546

5:23 PM ET

November 12, 2011

"This leaves another nine squadrons "

The combat radius of the F-16C is 300miles.

The distance from Israel to the northermost area of Iraq (where the Iranians could cross) is over 500 miles.

Soooooo, you were saying?

 

JOHNBOY4546

6:44 PM ET

November 12, 2011

"Particularly as they can expect limited to no air cover."

Ahem. Syria does have an airforce, remember?

 

CHRIS CARLSON

10:50 PM ET

November 12, 2011

Check out the F-16C/D Characteristics Summary Sheet

JOHNBOY4546 - According to the F-16C/D official characteristics summary sheet, the combat radius with an air-to-ground load out, two AMRAAMs and two 370 gal drop tanks is 649 nm. The F-15C radius is greater, but that is just air superiority. If necessary, a tanker can be on standby to provide additional fuel as required. So range isn't a big problem here. They can easily reach northern Iraq with a decent fuel reserve.

As for the Syrian Air Force, their past performance against the IAF doesn't say much about their abilities. Recall that the IAF decisively defeated Syria's air force during the Bekaa Valley incident in the summer of 1982. Israeli aircraft destroyed 87 Syrian planes, while suffering less than a handful of losses - including helicopters. And this was with early model F-16s and F-15s carrying AIM-7F Sparrows and AIM-9L Sidewinders. While the Syrians have recently formed three squadrons of MiG-29M (approx 68 a/c), the bulk of the fighter inventory is MiG-21/23/25 (approx 219/146/40 respectively). And even with the MiG-29Ms carrying AA-10 and AA-11 missiles, they will still be outranged and out classed by Israel's fighters carrying AIM-120 C-5 active radar homing missiles and Python 5s.

Also recall that Israel completely shut down the Syrian air defense system in September 2007 when they attacked the nuclear reactor facility in the Deir ez-Zor region in northern Syria during Operation Orchard. The Syrians were unable to detect and localize the Israeli fighter-bombers and they didn't get a single fighter into position to intercept, nor did any SAM system fire at the Israelis. Command and control is a particular weakness of the Syrian air force and they have not shown any real improvement. Syria may send fighters to help a traversing Iranian armor column, but the odds are very much against them being sent to the right locations, or even surviving an encounter with the IAF.

 

JOHNBOY4546

4:44 AM ET

November 13, 2011

"the combat radius with an air-to-ground load out"

"the combat radius with an air-to-ground load out, two AMRAAMs and two 370 gal drop tanks is 649 nm."

No, according to the stats I have seen a Block 50 with four 2,000-lb bombs, 2 AIM-9 and 340 US gal external tanks has a combat radius of 340 nm, which simply does not get them where they want to go.

"If necessary, a tanker can be on standby to provide additional fuel as required."

*sigh* Yet another analyst who assumes that if the IDF needs extra tankers then it can simply pluck them out of thin air....

Those tanker planes will be busy topping up the strike packages heading towards the Iranian nuclear facilities, remember?

"Recall that the IAF decisively defeated Syria's air force during the Bekaa Valley incident in the summer of 1982."

Recall that
a) 1982 is 29 years ago, and
b) The Syrians will be fighting from their home bases, while the Israelis will be fighting at the very limit of their combat range.

 

JOHN KANTOR

4:53 PM ET

November 14, 2011

Winning

"As U.S. history has demonstrated for the last 65 years, before you blunder into a war, it's best to figure out exactly how you're going to win. "

One of the stupidest comments of all time. I guess being an editor at FP is a lot like being a junior high school history buff.

Every "war" we've been in for the past 65 years we have lost (at least politically) because we have demonstrated to the enemy and the myriad despots, dictators, terrorists, and fanatics who were watching in the wings, that we didn't have the guts to finish what we started. And that, of course, is also why we had to fight the majority of them.

 

STEVEY0178

7:55 PM ET

December 8, 2011

The Best Air Force Today

Israel has the best trained air force in the world as for today. If they will decide to destroy the nuclear in Iran they will accomplish the mission. It has been proven also that the Israeli air force has taken on incredible odds when it comes to air force battle or any other for that matter.