Papa's Got a Brand-New Bag

Hold the celebrations. Greece's new interim prime minister, Lucas Papademos, has his work cut out for him. First on the list: save the country from imploding.

BY NICK MALKOUTZIS | NOVEMBER 11, 2011

Greece's new interim prime minister, Lucas Papademos, was due to teach a class at Harvard this upcoming spring semester. The subject: "The global financial crisis: policy responses and challenges." For Greece's sake, let's hope its new professor-in-chief knows what he's talking about.

Papademos spent 25 years working as a central banker -- so he should be used to dealing with worrying statistics. But even this bespectacled, mild-mannered economist might be daunted by the numbers he has inherited -- and the mountains of red ink that will dominate his premiership. On Thursday, Nov. 10, a few hours before the 64-year-old economist accepted the invitation from an increasingly confused and desperate George Papandreou to succeed him as Greece's premier, the European Commission published a report on the Greek economy that made painful reading. Greece's public deficit is expected to reach 8.9 percent of GDP this year, while the economy is forecast to contract by 5.5 percent, capping off a third consecutive year of recession.

Most shockingly, public debt is predicted to soar to 198.3 percent of GDP -- almost double what it was in 2008 and by far the largest margin in Europe. In another ominous twist of fate, Greece also announced its August unemployment figures on Thursday. The jobless figure climbed to 907,953, or 18.4 percent, which means that about 1,000 jobs have been lost every day over the last year. Even Papademos won't be able to hold on to his job for very long -- early elections are due to be called toward the end of February. But is 100 days enough time to lay the foundations for an economic recovery?

"The country is at a crucial crossroads.... The course ahead will not be easy, but I am confident that the problems can be solved," said Papademos on Thursday. It was an attempt to provide some optimism at the end of almost two weeks of intense political bickering that culminated in his selection to head Greece's first coalition government since 1989. Greeks watched with interest, but the depressed state of the economy means that few will see the glass half-full until growth and employment figures improve. The interim administration has the reluctant backing of the previous ruling party, the PASOK socialists, plus the tepid support of the conservatives of New Democracy and the ultranationalists of the Popular Orthodox Rally (LAOS). Papademos retained PASOK officials in key ministries in a bid to provide some continuity for structural reforms, but New Democracy's concern that a strong presence in the transitional government would damage its popularity at next year's elections means that there are only six conservatives among the administration's 49 members.

Papademos's first task will be to assure his counterparts in the eurozone that Greece has regained political stability, which was undermined by PASOK's internal divisions, attacks on its policies from opposition parties, and growing anti-austerity protests. He will also have to convince them that Greece is committed to the euro and will work with its partners to implement the terms of two bailouts, worth a combined 240 billion euros. Greece's future in the eurozone was put in serious doubt by Papandreou's surprising decision two weeks ago to call a public referendum on the terms of the country's latest round of financial assistance. The initiative (which the prime minister eventually backed away from) enraged Germany and France, panicked markets, set Greek politicians against each other, and triggered Papandreou's downfall.

It is no coincidence that in his statement on Thursday, Papademos said he aims to set Greece on a course to ensure its continued membership with the single currency. "I am convinced that Greece's continued participation in the eurozone is a guarantee for its stability," said the former vice president of the European Central Bank. As governor of the Bank of Greece between 1994 and 2002, Papademos was one of the architects of the country's entry into the euro. Critics argue that Greece became part of the eurozone based on questionable economic policy -- and even more questionable economic statistics -- and that Papademos must share some of the blame for this. But it looks like that will be a debate for another time. For now, the man who helped take Greece into the euro wants to make sure he is not the one who has to take it out.

LOUISA GOULIAMAKI/AFP/Getty Images

 SUBJECTS: POLITICS, ECONOMICS, EUROPE
 

Nick Malkoutzis is the deputy editor of the Kathimerini English Edition daily and blogs at Inside Greece

NIKOS_RETSOS

12:05 AM ET

November 12, 2011

Papa's Got a Brand-New Bag

The new Greek government won't be able to do anything until the February 19, 2012 elections when its mandate ends. Lucas Papademos government is called "transitional," or "epiresiaki" in Greek, and it is a "short term" government assigned to a limited task. Papademos tasks are: a) Enforce the EU austerity mandate on Greece, b) Receive the next bailout of funds from EU and keep Greece afloat, and C) prepare the country for the elections on February 19. His mandate ends there.

Papademas, therefore, won't be a quick fixer; he is just a neutral middleman accepted as a plug-in by the competing Greek political parties to run the country until the agreed elections. Many Greeks may foster a false hope that their hardship brought by the Greek austerity measures will be over soon! But that would certainly be a wishful thinking as personified by the Greek adage: "The day-dreaming and the miracles are not compatible!" There would certainly be no miracles or quick fixes, and I honestly don't see anything getting better until at least the year 2015 for both the protesters and for those whose lifestyles have been degraded by cuts and reductions in their salaries, benefits, and pensions.

The premise? The new government of Lucas Papademos won't be able to change or improve anything in Greece because it will be like a new driver in a sputtering old car. In short, nothing will change until that old car, Greece, be overhauled and start to run smoothly. And the austerity measures passed by the Papandreou government are the parts and the accessories that will do that but in the long term, not on short order! Lucas Papademos, therefore, will just preside over the overhaul of those Greek fixes, while the European Union inspectors will be watching him to make sure that the fixes are done according to the signed agreements before the European loans to pay for are disbursed. Even then, life in Greece won't go back to the past times of plenty because Greeks would have to pay then for the accrued "overhaul loans" which would be massive - even after the 50% haircut loss on Greek bonds by European banks.

Unfortunately, Greeks also need to overhaul their culture too. They have lived on the hog -borrowed money- for too long, and their current misery shall give them pause and thinking not to fall again into a similar trap again. But I doubt if they will learn anything, because living on the hog has become a "badge of honor and ingenuity" that is deeply ingrained in their culture. Greeks pride themselves as Europeans, and they try to support that notion with a flashy and upgraded lifestyle that the Greek Domestic Product output cannot support. Worse yet, the Greeks cannot get out of some bad social habits that were inherited from the Turks during the 368 years of Greek occupation by the Ottoman Empire - like loafing on the job and bragging socially about to promote their intelligence level and social status.

Let's hope that the current crisis in Greece, and the ordeal and sacrifices that will be made to re-float the country, will also serve as a re-education of the people on how they live and on how they select their leaders. In short, Greeks have to learn to live conservatively; rely only on the output of Greek products and services, and vote for politicians that promise them "stability and growth." Politics is "who gets what and how," and I am sure many of them have bragged to their friends and in their social circles on "what they had gotten and how" from their politicians on borrowed money until Greece started sinking! Now their bragging has been replaced by misery, and they had better think twice before they ask their politicians for an encore. The adage "Be careful what you wish; You may get it" must guide their decisions from now on. Otherwise, history would certainly repeat itself! Nikos Retsos, retired professor

 

BALKAN_FALCON

1:17 PM ET

November 12, 2011

So what happened to democracy??

In a situation like this, with Greece facing major policy changes that may affect its economy for decades, shouldn't the leadership organize elections ASAP?

They won't because the Eurocrats in Greece and Brussels are afraid of the outcome and instead wants to manage the process and impose policy on the Greek population.

This is the same Eurocracy that criticizes elites in other places (Russia in particular) for manipulating democracy.

But I guess what is good for the goose isn't for the gander...

What hypocrisy!

 

DAVID EDENDEN

7:56 PM ET

November 12, 2011

Papademos and Greece's Entry into the EURO

Greece's entry inti the EURO based on "cooked books".

As governor of the Bank of Greece between 1994 and 2002, Papademos was one of the architects of the country's entry into the euro.

What role did Papademos play in "cooking the books".

 

BALKAN_FALCON

3:49 PM ET

November 14, 2011

Who really benefitted form Greece's profligacy?

Many of the commentators above put much of the blame the Greeks for the mess they now find themselves in. An this is probably true.

But was this really a case of ordinary Greek people living high on the hog for all those years? Or was it (as is always the case) well connected business and political insiders that reaped the benefits of Greece's fiscal profligacy?

And if the latter is true, then is it fair to ask them to pay for it now? I'm sure the rich and powerful won't be the ones bearing the brunt of fiscal austerity.

 

A11242408

5:39 AM ET

November 15, 2011

Greeks pride themselves as

Greeks pride themselves as Europeans, and they try to support that notion with a flashy and upgraded lifestyle that the Greek Domestic Product output cannot support. Worse yet, the Greeks cannot get out of some bad social habits that were inherited from the Turks during the 368 years of Greek occupation by the Ottoman Empire - like loafing on the job and bragging socially about to promote their intelligence level and social status.YouTube Converter Mac

 

XTIANGODLOKI

5:15 PM ET

November 14, 2011

Bottom line: People want to work less and get paid more

When the opposite happens, people will revolt.

The sad truth is that there is no magical bullet to solve the situation. Regardless what happens next, a large group of people will suffer regardless from disappearing social services to lower pay checks. The wealthy will see a substantial drop in their networth as well, but that's only temporary they have enough capital to make profits during the inevitable economic uptick.

I think the lesson to be learned for all is that if you think your life is too easy you might as well enjoy it while you can, because nothing good lasts forever.

 

LISAJANE64

9:58 AM ET

November 26, 2011

No banker can save the collapse

One way or another, the lazyness and excessive lifestyle of the general Greek populace will take its toll. No bailout or change of premier will save the country from its imminent and long-expected economic collapse, unless of course the Greeks correct their lazyness, their priorities and lavish personal lifestyles. And also cut away from the Euro Zone.

Much love folks,
Lisa O.

 

MAQIMUBA

10:12 PM ET

December 10, 2011

RE: So what happened to democracy??

Let's hope the current crisis in Greece, and also the ordeal and sacrifices that'll be designed to re-float the nation, will even function as a re-education of those how they live as well as on the way they select their leaders. The sad the fact is that there's no magical bullet to resolve the problem. Regardless what goes on next, a sizable group are affected regardless from disappearing social services to reduce pay checks. The wealthy will discover a substantial drop within their net-worth too, but that is temporary they've enough exercise to create profits throughout the inevitable economic uptick.