
Greece's new interim prime minister, Lucas Papademos, was due to teach a class at Harvard this upcoming spring semester. The subject: "The global financial crisis: policy responses and challenges." For Greece's sake, let's hope its new professor-in-chief knows what he's talking about.
Papademos spent 25 years working as a central banker -- so he should be used to dealing with worrying statistics. But even this bespectacled, mild-mannered economist might be daunted by the numbers he has inherited -- and the mountains of red ink that will dominate his premiership. On Thursday, Nov. 10, a few hours before the 64-year-old economist accepted the invitation from an increasingly confused and desperate George Papandreou to succeed him as Greece's premier, the European Commission published a report on the Greek economy that made painful reading. Greece's public deficit is expected to reach 8.9 percent of GDP this year, while the economy is forecast to contract by 5.5 percent, capping off a third consecutive year of recession.
Most shockingly, public debt is predicted to soar to 198.3 percent of GDP -- almost double what it was in 2008 and by far the largest margin in Europe. In another ominous twist of fate, Greece also announced its August unemployment figures on Thursday. The jobless figure climbed to 907,953, or 18.4 percent, which means that about 1,000 jobs have been lost every day over the last year. Even Papademos won't be able to hold on to his job for very long -- early elections are due to be called toward the end of February. But is 100 days enough time to lay the foundations for an economic recovery?
"The country is at a crucial crossroads.... The course ahead will not be easy, but I am confident that the problems can be solved," said Papademos on Thursday. It was an attempt to provide some optimism at the end of almost two weeks of intense political bickering that culminated in his selection to head Greece's first coalition government since 1989. Greeks watched with interest, but the depressed state of the economy means that few will see the glass half-full until growth and employment figures improve. The interim administration has the reluctant backing of the previous ruling party, the PASOK socialists, plus the tepid support of the conservatives of New Democracy and the ultranationalists of the Popular Orthodox Rally (LAOS). Papademos retained PASOK officials in key ministries in a bid to provide some continuity for structural reforms, but New Democracy's concern that a strong presence in the transitional government would damage its popularity at next year's elections means that there are only six conservatives among the administration's 49 members.
Papademos's first task will be to assure his counterparts in the eurozone that Greece has regained political stability, which was undermined by PASOK's internal divisions, attacks on its policies from opposition parties, and growing anti-austerity protests. He will also have to convince them that Greece is committed to the euro and will work with its partners to implement the terms of two bailouts, worth a combined 240 billion euros. Greece's future in the eurozone was put in serious doubt by Papandreou's surprising decision two weeks ago to call a public referendum on the terms of the country's latest round of financial assistance. The initiative (which the prime minister eventually backed away from) enraged Germany and France, panicked markets, set Greek politicians against each other, and triggered Papandreou's downfall.
It is no coincidence that in his statement on Thursday, Papademos said he aims to set Greece on a course to ensure its continued membership with the single currency. "I am convinced that Greece's continued participation in the eurozone is a guarantee for its stability," said the former vice president of the European Central Bank. As governor of the Bank of Greece between 1994 and 2002, Papademos was one of the architects of the country's entry into the euro. Critics argue that Greece became part of the eurozone based on questionable economic policy -- and even more questionable economic statistics -- and that Papademos must share some of the blame for this. But it looks like that will be a debate for another time. For now, the man who helped take Greece into the euro wants to make sure he is not the one who has to take it out.
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