Winning Back the Revolution

Most Egyptians want economic recovery, not more protests, according to national Gallup surveys conducted over the past eight months. Do activists have any chance of winning back the street?

BY DALIA MOGAHED | NOVEMBER 28, 2011

As Egyptians go to the polls for the first time since the fall of former President Hosni Mubarak, the country is deeply divided. The protests of recent weeks -- which began with a call for the military to relinquish its hold on power -- have descended into violent street clashes between angry youth and the police, with as many as 40 killed and hundreds injured in the fighting. Even now, thousands remain camped out in Tahrir Square and in front of the parliament building in downtown Cairo.

Most Egyptians have likely not welcomed the most recent round of protests with the same enthusiasm as the uprising that brought down Mubarak. According to nationally representative Gallup surveys conducted across the country in four rounds between late March and September, most Egyptians long for a return to normalcy, and see the country's biggest problems as economic, not political. Among the wider public, the military is popular, while continued demonstrations that are viewed as crippling the economy and prolonging instability are not. But by responding to the protesters with brute force, Egypt's ruling generals may have squandered that good will. While Egyptians oppose continued sit-ins, they reject attacks on civilians with even greater fervor.

Following are some of the most notable highlights from this groundbreaking survey.

Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images

 

Dalia Mogahed is director and senior analyst at the Abu Dhabi Gallup Center.

 

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JAKE STRICKLAND

1:01 AM ET

November 29, 2011

The shift in power

Now that the people of Eygpt are not feeling repressed day in day out. They grow tired of unending protests and only want to return to some sence of normalcy. The next leader to take power will most likely use this to sway the people. fast cash commissions review

 

AWAISAMIN

11:04 AM ET

November 29, 2011

Revoloution roxx

Yes revoloution is always the time when some body needs change in thier place..!!
The biggest potential losers in the still-roiling revolutions of the Middle East and North Africa are the people themselves. Many are democrats at high risk of being overwhelmed over time by new dictators and organized religious extremists. But the uncontested winners are already quite clear: those who own, sell, and bet on oil. In the last month alone, oil prices have leaped almost 10 percent, even with only tiny dips in supply.

While these revolutions have produced daily thunderclaps worldwide about a new democratic future for the Middle East, power structures remain largely intact. Almost every country in the region looks as if it’s marking time, waiting. So far, those who took to the streets succeeded only in ousting their unwanted masters—Hosni Mubarak in Egypt and Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia—and not in really changing the power status quo ante. In Yemen, the established leadership does look shaky. In Libya, where the media proclaimed the rebels as victors last week, it seems like a standoff with Col. Muammar Gaddafi.

In Tunisia, where it all began, the revolutionaries are awaiting elections. The once banned Islamist party Al-Nahda has just been legalized. In Egypt, the protesters still find themselves in the strong grip of the military. Elections are set for September, and the military, as well as the Muslim Brotherhood, can be expected to top the parliamentary polls. In Bahrain, the huge Shiite majority took to the squares and made the Sunni autocracy tremble—only a causeway away from the Saudi Arabian oil jackpot. To date, the revolutions have generated far more drama and hope than real change.

The fighting in Libya has understandably monopolized attention, though its international importance is modest. Its normal output of oil sits at only 1 percent of daily global consumption. But watch out: legions of neoconservatives are demanding military action against Gaddafi, though his Arab neighbors say “stay out.”

Israel is the biggest strategic loser. The Jewish state has relied on Arab autocracies to subdue the anti-Zionist sentiments of their peoples. And Israel can’t do anything to fix its plight. Times are not at all conducive for new talks with Palestinians.

The United States is also a loser, but it need not be a big one. Washington’s power depends on whether the revolutions peter out or launch new anti-American rulers. Whatever happens, Washington will confront greater anti-Americanism. The fact is that Arabs generally see the United States as the protector of the corrupt autocrats who long ruled them and the savior of the hated Israel. Counterterrorism operations and anti-Iran diplomacy will suffer.

Turkey will be a model for Arab nations lucky enough to democratize. Its foreign policy balances between the United States and the states of Islam and is also now somewhat anti-Israel. Internally, Turkey balances between an Islamic and a secular state. The country has internal stability and a promising economy.

Conventional wisdom holds that Iran has won the lottery. But don’t bet on it. Iranians are Shiites and Persians; the revolutionaries are mostly Sunnis and Arabs. These groups don’t particularly care for one another. Most important, Arab revolutionaries must surely despise Iranian leaders who beat and slaughtered Iran’s freedom fighters a mere two years ago. Iran will gain only if regimes like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, strongly anti-Tehran, weaken and fall.

It’s quite possible that the revolutionary fervor will tire amid economic shortages and other burdens, and fade. Or the revolutions could erupt once again, suddenly, and wipe out all the dynasties in their path by agenda software , forcing profound recalculations of U.S. policy. But two things are certain: the oil barons and traders will get richer, and most people worldwide will scramble against higher oil and food prices and declining economies.

Gelb is president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations.

 

VERYINTERESTED

1:05 PM ET

November 30, 2011

Winning Back The Revolution

This article's title belies the shifting moral undercurrents and the strong undertow of the forces pushing for timely elections and those pulling for delayed elections. Why win back the revolution? To what purpose and end? Much in Egypt was worse off before and during the uprisings. Few things are improving more than the average Egyptian's outlook on their future and their country's future. The survey indicates that clearly.

That said, westerners distrust such surveys in middle eastern countries because, in part, what they often indicate and suggest is trending will not always, and invariably will not, look anything like the elections results.

If the MB wins a majority of seats and/or high-office positions, Egyptian voters will have voted back into power the troubles they knew before the revolution, and thus won back their past at the expense of their future.

 

ANGELIE

11:00 AM ET

December 2, 2011

Anger doesn't win back anything

Instead of violently clashing on the streets why don't these people gather together at a gym, work out their anger on a treadmill and maybe then they could come up with amicable solutions.

 

MARGPROPERTIES

1:39 AM ET

December 12, 2011

Anger doesn't win back anything

Hi ANGELIE, just love your comments. lol !!! Builders in chennai

 

YARINSIZ

4:18 PM ET

December 24, 2011

The United States is also a

The United States is also a loser, but it need not be a big one. Washington’s power depends on whether the revolutions peter out or launch new anti-American rulers. Whatever happens, Washington will confront greater anti-Americanism. seslichat The fact is that Arabs generally see the United States as the protector of the corrupt autocrats who long ruled them and the savior of the hated Israel. Counterterrorism operations and anti-Iran diplomacy will suffer.

 

EDDYTHOMAS

12:42 AM ET

December 25, 2011

The biggest problem is economic, not political

In Egypt, where everything began, the actual revolutionaries are waiting for elections. The as soon as banned Islamist celebration Al-Nahda has just already been legalized. In The red sea, the demonstrators still finish up in the powerful grip from the military. Elections are positioned for Sept, and the army, as well as the Islamic Brotherhood, can be expected in order to top the actual parliamentary polls. Within Bahrain, the huge Shiite vast majority took to the actual squares making the Sunni autocracy tremble-only the causeway away from the somanabolic muscle maximizer essential oil jackpot. Up to now, the cycles have produced far more crisis and wish than actual change.

 

LOCOROCO

8:36 AM ET

December 28, 2011

The muslim brotherhood is

The muslim brotherhood is financed by the west, so the muslims need to find another alternative if they don't want to be slaves of the world bank. Oron Search

My view is that we leave the middle east alone and stop meddling in their affairs.