Realpolitik and the Myanmar Spring

Wondering why Hillary Clinton is in Myanmar right now? Hint: it's all about China.

BY BERTIL LINTNER | NOVEMBER 30, 2011

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is in Myanmar, on a trip that is being hailed as a stunning breakthrough in bilateral relations and a sign that the Southeast Asian pariah state may finally be ready to rejoin the international community after two decades of isolation. It is a victory, analysts say, for the long-suffering forces of good and democracy over a brutal and self-serving military junta. But the truth is far more complicated.

According to the conventional wisdom in the Western media, Myanmar's Nov. 2010 elections may have been rigged and flawed, but nevertheless led to unprecedented policy changes and new initiatives. The new president, Thein Sein, has even been dubbed "Myanmar's Gorbachev" for his seemingly daring moves toward openness and respect for (at least some) democratic values. He has held talks with pro-democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, political prisoners have been released, and censorship of the media has been relaxed. Consequently, Clinton has said that the time is right to visit the country to "promote further reform."

But the secretary's visit has as much to do with Myanmar's relations with China and North Korea as with its tentative progress on democracy and human rights.

If Western observers are to be believed, recent developments in Myanmar reflect a power struggle between "reform-minded moderates" and "hardliners" within the government and the military that still controls it.

The political reality is far more convoluted.

In August and September of 1988, Myanmar saw the most massive and widespread pro-democracy demonstrations in recent Asian history. Strikes and protests were held in virtually every city, town, and major village throughout the country against a stifling military dictatorship that has held Myanmar in an irongrip since the army seized power in 1962 and abolished the country's democratic constitution. Suu Kyi, the daughter of Myanmar's independence hero Aung San, happened to be in the country at that time (she then lived in England) and people turned to her for leadership. She then emerged as the main leader of the country's pro-democracy movement.

SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images

 

Bertil Lintner lives in Thailand and is a former correspondent with the Far Eastern Economic Review and author of several books on Myanmar, including the forthcoming Great Game East: India, China and the Struggle for Asia's Most Volatile Frontier.

CHARLESFRITH

7:28 PM ET

November 30, 2011

Reptilian Diplomacy

Awful woman.

 

RMALI

10:37 AM ET

December 1, 2011

A truly insightful and

A truly insightful and compelling comment, indeed.

 

NAVANAVONMILITA

3:46 AM ET

December 3, 2011

China Baiting

Alan Christopher did an excellent job on this article. I feel glad. Foreign Policy magazine has been found catering to the conservatives of America. No matter how I slice and dice them, which I did plenty of times, the come up with fake analysis, faulty reasoning and almost always lacking in believability in their reporting about American foreign policy.

In my opinion, such a thing does not exist. It is pure and simple imperialism all over, all the time.

If and when they take the same medicine as they prescribe to others, less democratic countries in the Middle East and the Far East, the world would be a better place, not for America but for them countries where free speech, press censorship, human rights, women's rights, minimum standards of living conditions, freedom of religion and association become as good as those in America.

What America? What democracy?

America is creating another cold war. This time it is against China. Haven't they learned their fist cold war outcome? It was a hell in making. USSR armed themselves so much that if actual war were to happen they would have destroyed America hundred times.

In case of China, they are not as stupid as USSR communist dictators like Stalin. They are getting to be more progressive, more fine tuned to the world, more adept at dealing with their neighbors, more modern and egalitarian, more communicable and convincing.

As against that kind of diplomatic superiority, America is getting antsy over Iran's nuclear ambitions and Syria's reticence in liberalization. Warmongering comes easy for America. This time, they cannot take that road, much traveled, it may be as they have become an international eunuch. Can't getting it up. Foreign policy (jingoism) Viagra, ain't gonna do a thing.

...and I am Sid Harth@arabuhuru.org

 

PUBLICUS

8:44 AM ET

December 5, 2011

The Xinhua mouthpieces are baaack!

The reality is that as recently as November 24th PM Nguyen Tan Dung told the National Assembly that "Vietnam plans to continue building roads and schools to assert sovereignty on islands claimed by China."

PM Dung told the National Assembly that Vietnam will "expand its presence" on the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea and seek talks on the Paracels now illegally occupied by China, “We ask to keep the status quo, without further complications that may affect regional peace and stability," PM Dung said.

The Philippines, Vietnam, China, Malaysia and Taiwan have troops on the Spratlys, a group of islands and reefs with a total land area equivalent to 1 1/2 times the size of New York’s Central Park, spread over an area roughly the size of Iraq. Vietnam occupies the most islands in this group, Dung said.

Aggressive and combative Chinese vessels in May sliced cables of a survey ship doing work for Vietnam. The aggression by Beijing caused anti-Chinese demonstrations throughout Vietnam. In March Chinese ships had already chased away a ship working for U.K.-based Forum Energy Plc off the Philippines.

Vietnam and the Philippines have pushed the outlaw regime in China to redraw its maritime boundaries according to the United Nations Law of the Sea. Under long standing provisions of the UN Law of the Sea which apply globally, Beijing needs to surrender large swathes of its claims in the waters. This is because, under the UNLOS, maritime claims stem from occupation of islands. In other words, the UN Law of the Sea favors Vietnam and the other named inhabitants of the islets.

The CCP's belligerence from Beijing is motivated solely by oil reserves in the Sea, which contains two disputed island chains and which may total as much as 213 billion barrels, according to Chinese studies cited in 2008 by the U.S. Energy Information Agency.

As to the Paracels, these islets are fully and illigitimately controlled by China because in 1974 China initiated a battle which ousted fellow claimant Vietnam from the 30 islets and reefs - 71 soldiers were killed as a result of this incident by the "peace-loving" CCP in Beijing. The CCP in Beijing has demonstrated no serious interest in any peaceful settlement of its wild claims to absolute territorial sovereignty to what is known as the South China Sea. The UN Law of the Sea means nothing in Beijing.

Reading Xinhua can be instructive but perhaps only if one is interested in studying how indocrination and propaganda are presented by a one-party state dictatorship in a country that censors its mass media, the internet and in the Age of IT is the most reactionary force in the world. The CCP is greedy, corrupt and interested only in itself.

 

PUBLICUS

8:56 AM ET

December 9, 2011

Who owns the Gulf of Mexico???

The CCP in Beijing, which asserts sovereignty over the entire South China Sea, brings to mind questions concerning other bodies of water throughout the world that have the names of nations which could claim some connected history, such as the Gulf of Mexico. If the government of the United States of Mexico were to claim sovereignty over the Gulf of Mexico, the world would laugh and its neighbors in the Americas would laff the hardest and loudest. If the UK claimed to own the English Channel chances are no one would pay attention to the often eccentric Brits.

However, when a nation, the CCP-PRC in particular, which is a dictatorship that censors its 44 same-same channel Central China TV (CCTV) and its internet, creates the Fenqing while indoctrinating its people against the United States, claims sovereignty over a body water due to its history and name, the world does take notice. Worse, the misnamed South China Sea has only 2800 km of coastline on the Sea whilst 172,000 km of the 130,00 km Sea border the ten countries of Southeast Asia, to include Singapore. The President of the UN Atlas of the Oceans among other international leaders and organizations are being petitioned to rename the body correctly, i.e., the Southeast Asia Sea.

My own military service to the United States reminds me (again) that 'grunt' Special Forces sergeants such as you constantly tout yourself to have been should remember the long standing military axiom against trying to think above your pay grade, especially in respect of geostrategic, geopolitical and geoeconomic matters. I recognize your mention of the difficulties caused by sand and muck getting into parts of tanks, vehicles and weapons platforms, but I disregard your self-assigned recent role of geostrategic genius. Until last year I lived and worked in the People's Republic of China for three years: Google the word "Fenqing" then kindly get back to me - perhaps then you and I might have something worth discussing.

 

MARKBLAKEYY

7:09 AM ET

December 7, 2011

China double cross

This is all about China double cross. He only works with them who give benefits to him. ;)
The attention paid to General Min Aung Hlaing’s visit reveals the importance that Chinese officials and scholars attach to the Obama administration’s policy of engagement with Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, and its potential effect on Myanmar’s relations with China. This nation is Myanmar’s biggest economic partner, and its influence in Myanmar has in recent years overshadowed India’s.
natural gas pipelines that are under construction; access to the Indian Ocean; and the stability of border regions, where ethnic clashes have broken out between the Burmese military and guerrilla groups. Trade between China and Myanmar reached $5.3 billion last year, and China is the biggest foreign investor in Myanmar, with $15.8 billion in investments there.

Now, the Chinese are warily watching as the United States makes overtures toward Myanmar’s leaders.

“There is no doubt that many inside the Chinese establishment interpret it as part of a larger U.S. strategy on China,” said Mr. Xu, an expert on Southeast Asia. “It is another step taken by the U.S. to strengthen its presence in the region.”

Conservative voices in Chinese military and foreign policy circles now talk regularly about American attempts to hem in China, despite denials from American officials.

Some Chinese officials and scholars contend that the Obama administration played a role in persuading Mr. Thein Sein to block the dam or even in stoking the protests. The administration has not acknowledged any involvement.

“The incident sends a clear signal to China,” said Ms. Mu, the scholar at the Chinese Institute of International Studies, which is linked to the Foreign Ministry. “With the U.S. strategy of refocusing on the region, it is already making inroads in Myanmar. It also acts as a reminder that the public diplomacy of China still leaves much to be desired.”

Ms. Mu said that China and Myanmar remained committed to strong ties, but that their relations had changed since the United States became more involved in the region.

“The Myanmar government exhibited a strong desire to amend its relationship with the U.S. and Europe probably out of fear of becoming over-reliant on China and turning into a vassal state of an increasingly powerful neighbor,” she said.

On Wednesday, as Mrs. Clinton traveled to Myanmar, the English-language edition of Global Times ran an editorial on U.S.-Myanmar relations that highlighted the Myitsone Dam fiasco and concluded with this: “China welcomes the opening-up of Myanmar, but firmly opposes it stepping on China’s interests.”
Relations between the Chinese Communist Party and the Myanmar government, long run by a military dictatorship, have waxed and waned. In the 1960s, when China was trying to foment Cultural Revolution-style upheaval in Burma, people were suspicious of China, wrote Thant Myint-U, a scholar with a new book on modern Myanmar, “Where China Meets India.” Anti-Chinese riots broke out in June 1967. But in the 1990s, when much of the world tried to isolate Myanmar, China kept up relations.

“There is no special dislike of China or Chinese culture; dislike suggests a familiarity that is not there,” Mr. Thant Myint-U wrote. “Rather, there is a sense of the dangers of being next to an increasingly powerful and populous nation, whose internal wars and politics have time and again spilled over to wreak havoc on the much smaller country to the southwest.”
Those who fled Futaba are among the nearly 90,000 people evacuated from a 12-mile zone around the Fukushima Daiichi plant and another area to the northwest contaminated when a plume from the plant scattered radioactive cesium and iodine.

Now, Japan is drawing up plans for a cleanup that is both monumental and unprecedented, in the hopes that those displaced can go home.

The debate over whether to repopulate the area, if trial cleanups prove effective, has become a proxy for a larger battle over the future of Japan. Supporters see rehabilitating the area as a chance to showcase the country’s formidable determination and superior technical skills — proof that Japan is still a great power.

For them, the cleanup is a perfect metaphor for Japan’s rebirth.

Critics counter that the effort to clean Fukushima Prefecture could end up as perhaps the biggest of Japan’s white-elephant public works projects — and yet another example of post-disaster Japan reverting to the wasteful ways that have crippled economic growth for two decades.

So far, the government is following a pattern set since the nuclear accident, dismissing dangers, often prematurely, and laboring to minimize the scope of the catastrophe. Already, the trial cleanups have stalled: the government failed to anticipate communities’ reluctance to store tons of soil to be scraped from contaminated yards and fields.

And a radiation specialist who tested the results of an extensive local cleanup in a nearby city found that exposure levels remained above international safety standards for long-term habitation.

Even a vocal supporter of repatriation suggests that the government has not yet leveled with its people about the seriousness of their predicament.

“I believe it is possible to save Fukushima,” said the supporter, Tatsuhiko Kodama, director of the Radioisotope Center at the University of Tokyo. “But many evacuated residents must accept that it won’t happen in their lifetimes.”

To judge the huge scale of what Japan is contemplating, consider that experts say residents can return home safely only after thousands of buildings are scrubbed of radioactive particles and much of the topsoil from an area the size of Connecticut is replaced.

Even forested mountains will probably need to be decontaminated, which might necessitate clear-cutting and literally scraping them clean.

The Soviet Union did not attempt such a cleanup after the Chernobyl accident of 1986, the only nuclear disaster larger than that at Fukushima Daiichi. The government instead relocated about 300,000 people, abandoning vast tracts of farmland.

Many Japanese officials believe that they do not have that luxury; the evacuation zone covers more than 3 percent of the landmass of this densely populated nation.

“We are different from Chernobyl,” said Toshitsuna Watanabe, 64, the mayor of Okuma, one of the towns that was evacuated. “We are determined to go back. Japan has the will and the technology to do this.”

Such resolve reflects, in part, a deep attachment to home for rural Japanese like Mr. Watanabe, whose family has lived in Okuma for 19 generations. Their heartfelt appeals to go back have won wide sympathy across Japan, making it hard for people to oppose their wishes.

Thanks

Admin of wall clock | Kettles

 

MAVEE22

3:57 AM ET

December 9, 2011

Hilary hits again

What is Hilary doing in Myanmar? I agree on the hint. It's all about China. I was watching her press conference while jogging on one of my treadmills with TV and what can I say? Hilary is very hardworking. On the other side, reading some treadmills consumer reports, there was this section about Hilary...her history and an interview about her plans. I hope she sticks to her word.

 

MAVEE22

3:58 AM ET

December 9, 2011

What is Hilary doing in

What is Hilary doing in Myanmar? I agree on the hint. It's all about China. I was watching her press conference while jogging on one of my treadmills with TV and what can I say? Hilary is very hardworking. On the other side, reading some treadmills consumer reports, there was this section about Hilary...her history and an interview about her plans. I hope she sticks to her word.

 

ACOMPANHANTESR7G

10:23 AM ET

December 12, 2011

China Baiting

i Agree in which I did plenty of times, the come up with fake analysis, faulty reasoning and almost always lacking in believability in their reporting about American ...Thanks for sharing ! massagistas

 

YARINSIZ

4:11 PM ET

December 24, 2011

If and when they take the

If and when they take the same medicine as they prescribe to others, less democratic countries in the Middle East and the Far East, the world would be a better place, not for seslichat America but for them countries where free speech, press censorship, human rights, women's rights, minimum standards of living conditions, freedom of religion and association become as good as those in America.

 

KJWILSON

12:42 AM ET

December 27, 2011

Reform minded moderates and hardliners

Vietnam and also the Philippines have pushed the outlaw regime in China to redraw its maritime boundaries based on the Un Law from the Sea. Under traditional provisions from the UN Law from the Sea which apply globally, Beijing must surrender large swathes of their claims within the waters. The reason being, underneath the UNLOS, maritime claims stem from occupation of islands. Quite simply, the UN Law from the visual impact muscle favors Vietnam and also the other named inhabitants from the islets.