Does Israel matter in 2012?

Short answer: no.

BY SCOTT CLEMENT | DECEMBER 7, 2011

Scott Clement is the polling analyst for the Washington Post. The poll-watcher analysis series on American public opinion on foreign policy is cross-posted at the Behind the Numbers blog.

President Obama and Republicans have repeatedly clashed over policy towards Israel, incited most recently by comments from the U.S. ambassador to Belgium, who argued that some anti-Semitism was rooted in territorial tensions between Israel and its neighbors. On Wednesday, Republican presidential hopefuls looked to court Jewish supporters at a forum held by the Republican Jewish Coalition.

The entire hubbub raises a critical question: How important is Israel as a voting issue?

In short, not very. Domestic concerns are reigning supreme in 2012 and Jewish voters -- who may be naturally more concerned about the state of Israel -- make up a very small portion of the electorate, even in key swing states. But the low-interest issue could help clarify choices for Republicans, who see Israel relations as a higher national priority.

More than eight in 10 Americans cited domestic issues as their top voting issue in 2012 in a November Washington Post-ABC News poll, while less than two percent volunteered international issues. Even among international issues, Israel takes a back seat. None of the 1,004 adults interviewed for the survey mentioned Israel as the most important issue in their vote.

Jewish voters

Jewish voters made up 2 percent of voters in 2008, similar to their representation in the public overall, with their numbers peaking at 4 percent in Florida, a perennial swing state often decided by a few percentage points. Nationally, Obama won Jewish voters by a nearly 4 to 1 margin over Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), according to exit polls.

But Obama currently faces the lowest ratings of his presidency among Jews. In the latest Gallup data provided to the Washington Post, 51 percent of Jews approved of the way the president is handling his job and 42 percent disapproved. While Obama continues to score higher among Jews than the public overall, the sizable well of disapproval among a core Democratic group provides an opportunity for Republicans in 2012.

Alex Wong/Getty Images

 

DUSTINCARROLL

12:43 AM ET

December 8, 2011

Why not ?

Why not if Israel become big and bigger. They have everything and I think this answer must be : yes !

 

CANAANITE

10:10 AM ET

December 8, 2011

???

Big and bigger? Do you think it is something that Israel is entitled for? Really?

 

FORREST JOHNSON

7:18 PM ET

December 9, 2011

Biblical Borders

Genesis 15 establishes the borders of Israel as follows:

18: In the same day the LORD made a covenant with Abram, saying, Unto thy seed have I given this land, from the river of Egypt unto the great river, the river Euphrates:
19: The Kenites, and the Kenizzites, and the Kadmonites,
20: And the Hittites, and the Perizzites, and the Rephaims,
21: And the Amorites, and the Canaanites, and the Girgashites, and the Jebusites.

If you believe in the Bible, that's what you believe: Eratz Israel includes not only Palestine, but also Egypt east to the Nile, much of Jordan, all of Syria and Lebanon, and parts of Turkey and Iraq.

 

BARRYGOODLIFE

1:24 PM ET

December 13, 2011

Does Israel matter..and biblical borders of EY

Traditionally, Jews do not read the Bible (Tanakh) literally; our interpretation is based on the teachings of our Sages. It is simply not the case that everyone agrees that EY's borders are as expansive as you claim--or even that what the verses call the Nile and the Euphrates are, in fact, the rivers with those names today.

 

DOMINOES

9:46 AM ET

January 6, 2012

Balogne

This is just crazy talk to think that 1 piece of the earth is more sacred than the others...if God created all of them then they are equally sacred and should not be fought over and innocent lives lost in this quagmire a situation. It is time for this world to live in peace and get along..for me, I feel like I am allergic to this story, every time I hear it I cringe, so I am going to learn get rid of allergies so I can deal with this non-sense....I pray for the day when this bloodshed stops and we can all live in peace.

 

JOHNBOY4546

7:22 AM ET

December 8, 2011

Is it really wise to make Israel a partisan issue?

Israel is - and has been for a long, long time - a bipartisan issue in American politics.

Is it really in Israel's long-term interest to see the Republicans bashObama over the head regarding his perceived lack of fidelity to Israel?

That makes Israel a partisan issue, and that can't be a positive development for the Israelis.

Perhaps best if the Likudniks whisper a quiet "Lay off the guy, will ya'" to Mitt an' Newt an' whoever else is still running around in this race.

 

KASEMAN

11:23 AM ET

December 8, 2011

Israel is VERY relevant

Witnesss 100% of Congress gave Nuttyahoo 60 ovations, of which 30 were standing, more than what Churchill got... for insulting our President and demanding unconditional support and billion$ for the continued langrabbing by these parasitical settlers. Talk about Relevance!!

This revolting adulation is unprecedent ..nowhere in time or place has any democratic assembly given such a blatant abeyance to a foreign leader demanding more war on his country's behalf. The world has drawn the obvious conclusions as to who really makes foreign policy in Washington.

And wait for Ovigdor Liebermann replace Nutty.

Yes Israel is an asset....for all our enemies

 

BING520

11:38 AM ET

December 8, 2011

Israel Matters a lot

Israel matters because of the amount of money Jews donate to the candidates. Money buys ads. Ads buy influence. Without staging yourself an adamant supporter for Israeli cause and policy, a candidate will likely run the risk of insufficiency in campaign fund.
Israel enjoys a particular relationship with Washington DC. No other country is allowed to have an open, high-profile lobbying campaign permanently in our political spectrum. Imagine Japan or Germany or Mexico launches a similar lobbying campaign. We would no doubt be offended tremendously.

Criticism of Israel more than often warrants a barrage of anti-Semitism accusations. Israel need be supported by us, but unconditional support for and endorsement of Israeli policy makes us part of the problems in Middle East. We will never become an honest broker for Middle East peace. Nor can we be a trusted mediator among warring parties. Structurally and strategically we are doomed to fail in Middle East as long as we don’t evaluate our relationship with Israel on a basis of our national interest.

The perennially unsuccessful mediation by the US is the only failure we tolerate and accept as a norm on a permanent basis because of the election. A candidate can’t win a presidential or senatorial election without money. Jews happen to have plenty and are more than happy to give to anyone who agrees with Israel. To a national election, Israel is utmost important. To an average American, our Israel policy appears on his/her radar screen, blinking as a failure we can’t live without.

 

NGERN

11:43 AM ET

December 8, 2011

Why They Barred Ron Paul

The article implies that the Republican Jewish Coalition barred Congressman Paul because he advocates cutting off aid to Israel. That is inaccurate. The RJC barred Ron Paul because he is hostile to Israel. The House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed a resolution in January of 2009 in response to Israel's Operation Cast Lead (which was intended to stop missile attacks from Gaza). The resolution said Israel had a right to defend itself. Ron Paul voted against the resolution. He is an extremist.

 

BASE

9:36 AM ET

December 9, 2011

Extremist?

I would say he is an American.

The security and standing of the United States is Ron Pauls only concern, as it should be. He is running for President of the United States, not Prime Minister of Israel. Where should his alliances be, exactly if not with the US?

I, for one, have given up on both the Democrats and Republicans. I will vote for Ron Paul or perhaps a 3rd party candidate. Mitt Romney said the would defer his policy decisions about Israel to the Israelis. Seriously, how ridiculous. I will only vote for a candidate that will represent my country, not some other country.

 

SHEIKHYERBOUTI

3:03 PM ET

December 9, 2011

Ron Paul is rational and unbiased.

It has never been in America's best interest to support Israel. Those who claim otherwise have another agenda. To say that Mr. Paul is an extremist reveals the accuser to be one of those neocon/zionists who prefer that America 1) send her young men and women to die, 2) devalue her currency, and 3) become the oppression that America was founded to oppose, all to support a distinctly un-American entity in the former protectorate of Palestine. Maybe we should keep it simple: What special interest does Ron Paul represent? I can't really think of one. Can you, NGERN?

 

SHEIKHYERBOUTI

3:05 PM ET

December 9, 2011

3rd party = Obama for president!

Please do not vote 3rd party. I despise the Republican neocon old guard as much as you, but a 3rd party vote will do little to change anything. Thank you for your astute comments.

 

JACOB BLUES

12:29 PM ET

December 8, 2011

It's always interesting to see how the Jew haters will frame the

issue of Israel. Regardless of its importance as an issue in the 2012 election, the Jew haters just cannot seem to get out of the way of their own hatred.

All that shows us is that Jew haters will hate regardless of the subject matter and real importance (or lack thereof). They exist only to bash and nothing more.

That said, Israel as an election topic will shrink rapidly as the election date draws closer. As my old Social Studies teacher used to say, the most sensitive part of an American's anatomy is his or her wallet. And wallet issues are front and center in so many ways and forms.

Whether it is unemployment, jobs, economic growth, taxes, entitlement programs (social security, medicare / medicaid), the balanced budget (US), European debt crisis, Chinese exports / imports, currency strength, interest rates, the stock market, home prices, oil prices, and more, are going to have a large front-and-center seat at the table; as they must.

The reality is, the issue of peace in the Middle East is going to take a backseat without direct talks between Israel and the Palestinians, and the Palestinians are showing every indication that they're not going in that direction. All the other neighboring states are going to be in various stages of political reform or repression, whether it is Egypt, or Syria, or whomever. Iran, will raise its head, but is being handled in a covert / diplomatic way. Short of a war between the major players (and Hizballah, despite punching above its weight, is not in the same category as say Egypt or Saudi Arabia), won't impact the voters on a daily basis.

I understand that this is a FP magazine, so focuses on international affairs, but really, we're talking tempest in a teapot and if the economy is humming come November 2012, voters will be thinking the old Reagan line "Am I better off than I was four years ago" over anything else.

 

SPOOD

5:24 PM ET

December 8, 2011

About friggin time someone outside "The Bund" chimed in!

"It's always interesting to see how the Jew haters will frame the

issue of Israel. Regardless of its importance as an issue in the 2012 election, the Jew haters just cannot seem to get out of the way of their own hatred. "
---

Well said!

 

MPANZONE

10:06 PM ET

December 12, 2011

no there aren't really

come on, there aren't really that many jew haters around. the number of antisemites in american and europe is way over exaggerated, thankfully. to hate israel does not mean one hates jews. one is a country, the other is a religion. i wish everyone would get the straight.

 

WHISKEYPAPA

3:59 PM ET

December 13, 2011

Hatred

Yeah, I pretty much hate the US Military being co-opted to achieve Israeli strategic purposes.

I do hate that and I say to Hell with Israel if it can't get along with its neighbors. No way should the USA be supporting Israel.

Walt

 

BGARD6977

12:31 PM ET

December 8, 2011

Extreme views on Isreal?

Leave them alone is extreme?

 

BASE

9:38 AM ET

December 9, 2011

Thank you!`

Exactly. Apparently not agreeing with Israel 100% of the time is 'extreme'.

If that is the case than I am an extremist, and so are around 77% of the population of the US that wants us to act as a neutral arbiter in negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians.

 

COSSACK

1:08 PM ET

December 8, 2011

Its pathetic what the US

Its pathetic what the US politics have come down to... Does a foreign country matter in US elections.... Romney and others (with exception of Paul who was not invited) kissing Israeli ass at the Republican Jewish Coalition was utterly pathetic to watch, I could only watch 2 minutes of it... Then Democrats will be going to an African-American Something Something Coalition, then something Hispanic.... In the 21st century, in US, people are still grouped together rather than viewed as individuals, and when allegiance to an alliance with another country is debated, well, its just sad.

On foreign affairs, treat Israel like any other country. Trade and invest, but thats it. No foreign aid, no weapons, no stated support for it. Traditionally, US allies in the last century were Canada and Western Europe. And even those alliances need to be untangled militarily (existence of NATO, while Europe has its own CSDP).

 

BASE

9:39 AM ET

December 9, 2011

+1

Perfectly said.

 

DYMABLINK

5:29 PM ET

December 8, 2011

Israel will always matter

Obama had alot of votes from Jews but with it doesnt seem like he cares much for Israel. Arabs do not trust America because they think America is pro-israel and anti-palestine but the fact of the matter is that the palestinians cause chaos and panic across the land with constant terrorist acts. I have visited Israel this past summer and saw a city, Tsderot which borders with the gaza strip. I was warned that if I hear a siren then I have 15 seconds to run to the nearest bomb shelter. This is how israeli citizens live in certain cities, having to wonder when the next siren will go off. Israel deserves foreign aid and support because innocent families are being murdered for no reason. back pain relief expert and acupressure mat man.

 

MPANZONE

10:15 PM ET

December 12, 2011

u didn't go into the west bank too?

you should have. i have been all over the west bank and interracted with hundreds of palestinians and lived to tell about it because, unlike israeli propoganda, the vast majority of them are people just like us who just want to live in peace. the terrorists among them are only a small minority. you need to differentiate between the "violent terrorists" and the "palestinians" when you say "the palestinians cause chaos and panic around the land". not to do so is racism.

 

DYMABLINK

8:16 PM ET

December 8, 2011

israel should have the right to defend themselves

Israel should have the right to defend themselves

 

BETZ55

5:02 PM ET

December 9, 2011

Really?

Than so should the Palestinains. The illegal settler squats are nothing but radical, fanatical terrorists.

 

BARRYGOODLIFE

1:45 PM ET

December 13, 2011

settlements

You need to look at those settlements--and the settlers--more carefully.

Only a minority could be described as "religious fanatics". In fact, a bare majority even call themselves religious. Those "settlers" many of whom are secularists, are simply suburbanites, who moved ouside the expensive, densely populated areas of Israel, for quality of life reasons.

Most of those who actually moved in (as opposed to those born there) did so before there was an intifada--which means before there were security fences and military roadblocks, bypass roads, etc, all of which were instituted to protect a civilian population. These did not exist after 1967until the first (and mostly after the second) intifada. Until then, there was pretty free daily movement of Palestinian Arabs in and out of Israel.

If the Arab "street" were to stand up to the minority of Arab thugs who confuse freedom fighting with murder and mayhem (and quite a bit if inter-Arab murder and mayhem, BTW) perhaps those roads would be re-opened, security stations dismantled, and more Palestinians return to work --as they once did-- in Israel proper.

But in the meantime, when the leadership of one Palestinian entity demands its own state AND the right of millions to overrun its negotiating partner's state, and a second Palestinian entity refuses to even recognize the (right of ) existence of a sovereign Jewish state, there is little to talk about.

 

JUANITA_BAUTISTA

10:04 PM ET

December 8, 2011

People Say They Don't Matter...But Israel Should.

Again, a case of wrong priorities.

With the2012 elections on the horizon, Foreign Policy shows that a majority of Americans are again looking to fault-prone men rather than to Almighty God for their economic salvation. America and the rest of the world should know by now that the more they focus on the economy and the less emphasis on God, the more they will suffer.

Our general disbelief in God, not another economic formula nor political strategy, is the real problem: The less we believe in God and His Word=the less concern we have over Israel...and the less concern we have over Israel, the more we think we can carelessly toss them over to the whims and wiles of numerous foes threatening to throw them to the sea or blow them up with a nuclear bomb. To think we've upheld that Israel is the bully (now where did that idea ever come from?)!

Now we know from Biblical prophecy that Israel will ultimately prevail because they have a God who takes care of them...but are we sure we can be comfortable sitting by the sidelines, doing nothing while new Hitlers arise? Would we rather feel the sting of regret in the future, knowing it was in our power to help them but chose to selfishly worry over our own material needs? God forbid that we curse Israel and invite more overwhelming catastrophe on our heads.

 

MARTY24

12:56 PM ET

December 9, 2011

Thinking clearly

There is a lot of nonsense appearing in the replies to this article, so I thought I would provide some reality:

1. Obama's 2008 campaign was based on NOT telling the people what he stood for; this was made explicit by a campaign representative in an appearance on NPR. When a candidate gets elected using this strategy, it provides NO mandate for doing ANYTHING. That he followed up with over-reach in many policy areas -- not just with healthcare -- was guaranteed to bring the response we have seen the last two years: unconditional opposition from the Republicans. If Obama is planning on doing this again in 2012, he should be defeated for this reason alone.

Against this background, Democratic efforts to have the Israel issue removed from the campaign appear in a very different light -- it's nothing more than one plank in a campaign strategy to avoid addressing the issues.

2. Odds are that economic issues will be paramount in 2012. Even if we manage to avoid a double-dip recession, the official unemployment rate will still be above the level at which Obama claimed it will peak, and the real unemployment rate will be even higher. Americans will still be holding back in an effort to repair their balance sheets, thereby making it difficult for any of them to make progress in doing so.

Trade issues are likely to be important as well, especially trade with China, as this impacts both the employment situation and the debt issue. As long as we have a large trade deficit, the total debt in the nation must increase, making it even more difficult for individuals to repair their own debt situations.

A third dimension of the economic issue is entitlements, which have grown from about 15% of outlays during the "Great Society" to more than 60% today. Projections put this number at more than 80% in the next few years, a level that is inconsistent with a functioning government. Democrats don't want to discuss this issue either; they have used it repeatedly to scare people into voting for policies that are contrary to their real interests.

I certainly would like to hear the candidates discuss these issues: employment, trade, and entitlements, but so far I'm seeing no inclination by Obama to address any of them.

3. Obama's approach to the Middle East is unambiguously a total failure. Not only did his "taking sides" in the Israel-Palestine conflict bring the negotiations to an end, but it is one factor in the lack of trust Arab governments have for the US. Surprise guys, the Arabs pay attention to whether the US remains faithful to its allies. When it doesn't, that tells Arab governments that they cannot rely on us either, a reality reinforced by Obama's role in bringing down Egypt's Mubarak. And Obama's submission to Muslim views of the world in his Cairo speech provided fodder for the growing Islamist problem. Look for the fate of Christian minorities in the Middle East to become an issue as Islamist Parties take control and tighten the screws aginst their Christian subjects.

The upshot is that Obama's foreign policy has made the world far more dangerous than even Bush's advanture in Iraq. No foreign leader really trusts him, nor should they, and that is a big problem.

Defense Secretary Panetta's recent diatribe against Israel, wedded to Secretary Clintons' recent comments, prove that this Administration doesn't even have its facts straight on the conflict. It is Israel, not the Palestinians, that has been willing to negotiate, and it is the Palestinians, not Israel, that keeps saying no. In fact, during the weeks leading up to the Palestinian application for statehood through the UN, they had a diplomat, Husam Zomlot, touring the United States explaining that the Palestinians had decided against further negotiations because when they meet, the Israelis want to discuss security measures, and the Palestinians are unprepared to agree to anything in this area. This detail, by itself, demonstrates that the Obama Administration has got its facts exactly backwards.

4. Bloggers who write about Jewish money controlling the election are engaging in a hoary anti-Semitic canard. In 2008, the Obama campaing raised more than twice as much money as any previous campaign, about half of it from unidentifiable sources. Many of these contributions came in peculiar amounts, like $58.32, which makes sense only if it represents a contribution made in a foreign currency. There were donors who gave dozens of small contributions a day, invariably from prepaid credit cards purchased with cash, and many of these sold abroad. Obama got substantial donations from the Muslim world, including from Gaza. It is a felony to accept donations from non-citizens, but to this day, Obama's Justice Department has done nothing about this.

Further complicating the case for those who claim Jewish money controls elections on behalf of Israel is that most Jewish money goes to Democrats, the very party the anti-Israel crowd believes should rule in perpetuity.

The real issue for 2012 is whether Obama is prepared to tell us what he will seek to do if reelected. If not, then that should be the number one issue, even ahead of the economy. We cannot go another four years with a leader who feels he has been elected dictator.

 

SEADOG1946

2:20 PM ET

December 9, 2011

Marty24 - your response is a carefully crafted work of

Israeli hasbara and is as long winded and as convoluted as a Caroline Glick opinion piece... We don't need to have US presidential candidates touting their support of a foreign country as an election issue. Israel is not the 51st state of these United States, the world does not revolve around Israel, it is a Levantine backwater located over 5000 nautical miles from Washington DC; it is armed to the teeth with an estimated 200 nuclear weapons, free US conventional arms, free/subsidized state-of-the-art German u-boats and it is quite capable of standing on it's own two feet.

 

BETZ55

5:19 PM ET

December 9, 2011

Good one Sea Dog

Not to mention Israels refusal to sign the NPT, that they lied to the US in the 60's when they were developing their nukes.

That they refuse to honor their obligations/committments to Oslo, Wye, The Arab Initiative, and the Roadmap, that they thumb their nose at the UN and refuse to recognize the many UN Resolutions, Geneva Conventions, or International Law when it comes to their conduct in the Middle East and the illegal settlments.

All the while telling us that they are the only "democratic" state(a total fallacy and with no constitution) with secure borders (just not in the West Bank) place in the Middle East that has a "vibrant" economy all the while sucking 10 million dollars a day from US taxpayers the hasbara Mary24 spouts is just that hasbara.

You, Marty have a choice along with your hasbara friends, AIPAC, WINEP, et. al. and all the Israel firsters. You love Israel so much, go there and stay there. Otherwise your pursuit of a greater Israel will end in two ways. One state where Israel will be the Apartheid state of the 21st century or a two state solution and a Jewish only state. It beggers the mind that you fools just don't get it and fail to pursue the two state solution but that shows just how myopic and stupid you all are.

Israel is the cancer in the Middle East that is destroying and imploding on itself and is a first rate mess. And I must say it is a pleasure to watch her destroying and de-legitimizing herself day after day after wonderful day.

As for Obama? It is sad indeed that the first African-American president of the United States defends in Israel exactly the kind of institutionalized bigotry, apartheid oppression, and racism in Israel the civil rights movement defeated in this country, a victory that made his election possible.

Good news? There will be when the US recognizes a two-state solution, a separation between their country and this one, the United States.

And the Republican fools running in this election cycle?

The solution is simple - when an AIPAC endorsed candidate runs just spell out for the people, wherever that candidate appears all the money we give to Israel that could be spend here at home. People understand dollars and cents. Make AIPAC and the people who run on a pro-Israel ticket defend giving 10 millions dollars a day to a 'vibrant democracy' when our own are going without. Spell it out for them and shame these Israel firsters/AIPACers. It's long overdue.

 

KAULITS

5:15 AM ET

December 10, 2011

Israel is the cancer in the

Israel is the cancer in the Middle East that is destroying and imploding on itself and is a first rate mess. And I must say it is a pleasure to watch her destroying and de-legitimizing herself day after day after wonderful day.

 

MAURICIONEU

12:22 PM ET

December 10, 2011

They matters

Israel has a lot of potential, Saddan stoled all the wealth of the country for years, now they just have to get rid of the US ARMY.

trabalho em casa

 

DIANA RELKE

4:48 PM ET

December 10, 2011

Polling on this question is stupid.

So why is it that more Jews are unhappy with Obama vis-a-vis Israel? Do they disapprove of the way Obama lets Bibi walk all over him? Or do they disapprove of what Obama would like to do, if Bibi weren't walking all over him?

 

FERNANDODRENAGEM

8:25 AM ET

December 28, 2011

Israel Matters a lot...

Israel enjoys a particular relationship with Washington DC. No other country is allowed to have an open, high-profile lobbying campaign permanently in our political spectrum. . Structurally and strategically we are doomed to fail in Middle East as long as we don’t evaluate our relationship with Israel on a basis of our national interest.
massagista
avioes venda

 

DOMINOES

5:41 PM ET

January 8, 2012

disagree

There is very little importance with this country and it should not have been given to the Israelis in the first place...look at all of the pain and needless suffering the state of Israel has caused...It was a huge reason behind 9/11 and we will continue getting attacked by the radical muslims as long as we stay involved in the Middle East with Israel in this Zionist push. We need to get our act together and think about what we can do at home to improve our country...enough of all this expansion...we have austin apartments and an overall poor housing market and not to mention our education sucks too. We will be plenty busy if we work on our own problems and not cause more in the world...there are not enough air ambulance in the world to take care of all the pain we have inflicted on the world...Israel has been our partner in crime over the last 50+ years, and we need to do away with them like how to get rid of a hangover. The world is big enough for there to be a safe place for the Israelis to live and it should not be placed in the middle of a hot bed for wars. end of rant