Kremlinology 2012

The Decembrists

No one's quite sure what's going on in the streets of Moscow -- or what to call it -- but it's growing and powerful ... and could all end badly.

MOSCOW – Tonight is the first night without protests here since some 6,000 young people gathered Monday night to express their frustration with the electoral fraud in Sunday's parliamentary elections and, more broadly, the institution of Putinism. They came out again Tuesday night, where they were met by thousands of drum-beating pro-Kremlin youth activists. And again on Wednesday. Nearly 1,000 people were arrested, and many of them -- including anti-corruption blogger Alexey Navalny, a political rising star since he coined the phrase "Party of Crooks and Thieves" to describe Vladimir Putin's ruling United Russia -- are still in jail. Moscow is filled with tens of thousands of extra Interior Ministry troops and armored personnel carriers, and the city's skies crackle with the sound of helicopter blades.

But what's next? In short: No one knows. Sure, the Russian blogosphere is deep into planning the next protest, scheduled in Moscow for Saturday and which, according to the Facebook group created for it, more than 30,000 people are planning to attend, and Yandex, the Russian search engine, has posted a map pinpointing the addresses and times of protests scheduled all over Russia. But, meanwhile, the Western press is scrambling to tag this phenomenon with something, anything -- the "Slavic Spring," "OccupyKremlin," or "White Revolution" for the white ribbons organizers are handing out -- to make it digestible, classifiable, understandable.

Neither the scope, nor the trajectory, nor the efficacy of the growing wave of protests is clear, and predicting, or even gauging, their success is still impossible. What is quickly becoming apparent, however, is that whatever is happening now is very real, and very different from anything that has happened in many, many years. Something, in short, has changed -- essentially overnight -- and there is no going back to the day before.

At least nominally, the protests are about contesting the outcome of Sunday's elections. There is some substance to this, as each day brings more and more eyewitness accounts of electoral fraud, of carousels, of ballot stuffing, of dead souls voting. There is a sense that, were it not for such tricks, United Russia would not have gotten even the paltry 49.5 percent of the vote that the authorities claim. In Moscow, according to an exit poll by FOM, a Kremlin-friendly pollster, United Russia got 27 percent, a far cry from the national average. Moreover, the people who came out on Monday night -- surprising both the Kremlin and the protest's organizers -- were people who had participated in those elections. For many of them, it was a concrete issue (feeling duped) rather than an abstract one. Perhaps this is why the numbers were so shockingly large by Moscow standards, which has up until now seen only sparse and largely radical or elderly crowds of a few hundred. (Though it should be said that protests over other tangible things, like foreign car imports or monetizing pensions, were always well populated.)

So what changed? It wasn't simply that people were afraid to get involved and now aren't. The axiom that people felt that it was pointless to protest was, in large part, true. For years, polls showed well over 80 percent of Russians did not believe they could influence the political process. And, for the most part, they were right, not least because people who do not participate -- either because they don't want to, or because they're disincentivized from doing so -- can have little effect. The lack of incentives to participate was important, and it was by design. So, too, was the official Kremlin line, which boiled down to this: After the chaotic and ruinous 1990s, the country needed stability and material comfort, while democracy and other such nebulous things could come at a later, unspecified time.

Ironically, the problem, at least for Putin now that he seeks to return to the presidency he first assumed on New Year's Eve 1999, is that he did provide the promised stability and economic benefit to many people, both intentionally -- by raising pensions, for example -- and unintentionally, as commodity prices took off during his initial tenure as president. This flooded state coffers, lined his friends' pockets, and at least some of it trickled down. For people who experienced the penury of the 1990s, these rivulets -- small as they were compared to the billions the new Putin set of oligarchs was making -- were nothing to sneeze at.

Yet it also meant this: Stability worked in ways Putin might now be paying for. As Robert Shlegel, a young Duma deputy from United Russia and commissar of the pro-Kremlin Nashi movement, told me a few days ago, "We have a middle class now. It may not be as big as in Germany and France, but it exists. And the quality of the needs in towns has changed, from how to survive to how to live. They have what to eat and what to drive. The question now is how to live with dignity and justice." That may sound like straight out of a political theory textbook, until you consider what he said when I called him on Thursday to ask about the growing protests. He recalled a conversation with a friend who said he planned on going to Saturday's demonstration. "I said to him, ‘What is the problem? You have a job, you have an apartment, you have a car. What else do you need?'" Shlegel recounted. Why, in other words, are you suddenly violating your end of the social compact of the 2000s: You get richer and buy cars and take vacations, but leave the politics to us.

What else do you need? As could be seen at the week's mass protests, and in the Twitter and Facebook blizzard in the days that followed, what these young, educated, urban, middle-class Russians of the Putin era need is exactly what Shlegel said they needed: dignity and justice. And not the lofty definitions of those words that one often hears in Washington. I mean something more basic: a state that trusts and respects its citizens, a state that sees its people as citizens rather than as bydlo, or cattle -- as the common saying goes in Russia. When Russians describe their political system today, the phrase they most often use is ruchnoe upravlenie, or manual control -- which, of course, implies an utter lack of both those things.

So we are right back to Russia's historical problem, one that bedeviled both tsars and communist commissars before Putin: What to do with a liberal, educated, well-traveled elite that orients itself toward Europe and its democratic traditions -- but that is an elite nonetheless, separated from the rest of Russia by a massive chasm in outlook and upbringing as well as aspirations? We've seen this story before, and, inevitably, the conflict does not end well for those involved. (See, for example: the 1825 revolt of the Decembrists, the 1917 October Revolution, the 1956 "thaw" of Nikita Khrushchev, and the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union.)

The people who came out to protest here this week were the representatives of this elite. It's no coincidence that the center of organization for these protests is Twitter and Facebook, two platforms used almost exclusively in Russia by that very refined, and removed, slice of society. They've done well in the last decade, but they've also become increasingly fed up with being lumped with, for lack of a better term, the cattle. A breaking point seemed to come on September 24, when Putin announced the grand swap: His plan to switch places and resume the presidency while have his puppet successor, Dmitri Medvedev, take his job as prime minister. "September 24 was the signal," says Igor Yurgens, head of the INSOR think tank, once see as Medvedev's brain trust. "The feeling was, they can't do this. Six, most likely 12 years with no discussions, no consultations. Even the Communist Party, when they picked the general secretary, even though it was totally clear that they would install whomever they wanted, there were still party meetings across the whole country. Even with the understanding that they'd get their person, they still worked on building consensus. Here, in one day, two people -- but most probably one person -- decided the next decade without anyone else."

The response to this moved quickly. First, there were anguished calculations of how old people would be when Putin finally left the presidential throne, then numerous incidents of booing United Russia and even Putin himself, and, finally, the protests of the last week. The slogans were less about United Russia, and the farce of the elections hardly got a mention on Monday night. The main target was Putin and the brazen cronyism -- and brazen brazenness -- of his system. "Russia without Putin!" shouted the crowds. "Putin is a thief!"

This is also why people who had never voted before, or hadn't voted in many, many years, went to cast a ballot this time around. The results, despite the forgeries and the trickery, at least accurately reflected in some way United Russia's sinking poll numbers, and this seemed to have been the push the class of the fed-up needed: it showed them that if you go out and participate, even in a crooked system, something, even something small, can come of it. (The results, by the way, were very deeply telling when broken down by region. For example, among the areas that really swept United Russia back into power were the republics of the North Caucasus; areas, plagued by an Islamic insurgency, that are flooded with Kremlin cash -places where money for loyalty still seems to work.)

The other question, of course, is what will come of this unrest. The official response, despite Putin's admissions of "losses" and vague promises of new reforms, so far, has been more of the same. It didn't help when Medvedev and Putin proved dismissive of reports of electoral fraud, or that the top election official in the country, the openly partisan Vladimir Churov, flat-out denied electoral fraud and darkly accused the opposition of working for "dollars."

On Thursday, Medvedev was finally pressed into calling for a full report to investigate electoral violations, but we've seen all too well how his personally demanded reports work out: the report, for example, that he ordered into the death of lawyer Sergei Magnitsky in police custody resulted in Magnitsky himself being named as a party to the fraud he was trying to investigate when he was arrested, and in medals for the police officers who, quite likely, killed him. And what did Putin say about the electoral losses suffered by the party created to support him? "Putin has never been directly connected with the United Russia party since he is regarded as an independent politician," his press secretary told the BBC.

And the protests? Putin acknowledged them on Thursday, which, given the fact that his television stations haven't, means they're actually important. "While going by the vast majority of our citizens, we need to have a dialogue with those who are oppositionally minded, give them the opportunity to speak their minds, giving them their constitutional right to protest, to formulate their opinions," he said at a meeting of his People's Front. But Putin also reminded people not to be naïve and hinted, as he has in the last two weeks, at shadowy connections to the West. "When you're talking about people who leave for America, and get some training there, get some money, acquire some equipment, and then come back here and spend their time being provocateurs, dragging people out into the streets," he said, "even these people cannot be measured with a single yardstick."

It was a clear rebuke to two parties. One of them was Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who had expressed her concern with the way Sunday's elections had gone down. This, Putin said, was "a signal" to the opposition -- a fifth column, in Putin's KGB-minted mind. "They heard the signal, and with the support of the U.S. State Department, began active work."

The other swipe was at the very people that Putin proposed talking to: the opposition not lucky enough to win seats in the Duma. There is, for example, former prime minister Boris Nemtsov, who spent time teaching in the United States. And Navalny, who did a six-month fellowship at Yale. This is a standard Putin bogeyman, an easy way to deflect blame and to discredit whomever he's up against. As for dialogue, Putin certainly didn't have in mind negotiating with opposition figures like Nemtsov and Navalny. "He means the parliamentary opposition," says Gleb Pavlovsky, a political consultant who, until recently, worked for Medvedev, and helped Putin win his first presidential election, in 2000. "He has never taken people like Nemtsov and Navalny seriously. He sees them as nihilists and anarchists. He's mistaken about them, of course, but there really is no consolidated opposition and there really is no one for him to talk to."

And that, unfortunately, is true. The protesters, as massive as Saturday's gathering promises to be, are still a diffuse group with no formulated demands. What do they want? A vote recount? A new election? Putin's ouster? Good luck. Tonight, in a compromise with the Moscow city government, the protest was moved to a different location, which caused a minor war among the opposition, which in recent days, has been remarkably unified. This kind of squabbling over tactics, and whether or not to compromise with the authorities, will severely hobble the movement, too.

So far, the Kremlin has been buying time -- keeping the protests off television, leaning on liberal media (like RainTV) and social networks to cut off oxygen to the protests, dismissing them as a vocal minority trying to impose its view on a majority happy with its apartments and cars. But Saturday promises to be the day when both the opposition's approach and demands, as well as the Kremlin's response crystallizes.

"I suspect the situation will be very serious on Saturday," says Yurgens. "If the Kremlin has enough brains to enter into discussions, to form a coalition government, to fire the current government before the elections, there's a chance. But if they just carry on as if nothing happened, we can expect rough times ahead." Gennady Gudkov, an outspoken Duma deputy with the Just Russia party, agreed. "If they carry on like nothing happened, if there's one more election like this, there won't be a country anymore," he says. "If the government doesn't react, the protests won't go away. They'll simply take another form, and it will boomerang back to the Kremlin."

As for the opposition, things are also unclear. Even if Saturday is a success, what next? What are its demands? And how long can this wave of protests keep going, and to what end? So far, no one, not even those leading the protest, knows.

Originally, Saturday's big event was supposed to take place, fittingly, on Revolution Square, in the shadow of the Kremlin. For the past week, there have been orange and yellow banners there celebrating the 70th anniversary of the defense of Moscow. It is a strange anniversary to mark, and, in the absence of any unifying ideology, World War II has been a standard theme to harp on in Putin's time. But it's worth noting that the defense of Moscow worked mostly because a harsh winter literally froze the Nazi machine in its tracks. So far, Moscow has had a rather mild winter, with sunny skies and temperatures hovering above freezing. Should they dip, it may make protesting under the Kremlin's walls much more difficult. Tahrir Square, after all, had the benefit of a Mediterranean clime.

Gudkov, the rabblerousing Duma deputy, doesn't agree. "I don't think people will be scared of the cold," he told me. "Cold has never stopped people here. Look at the October revolution, the February revolution. When did the Decembrists come out? Whenever it gets cold in Russia, it only heightens people's activity. I wouldn't play around with that."

OLGA MALTSEVA/AFP/Getty Images

Kremlinology 2012

Election Hardball, Kremlin Style

In advance of Sunday's parliamentary ballot, the pro-Putin camp is cracking down hard on independent election monitors.

On Sunday, Nov. 27, when Vladimir Putin accepted United Russia's nomination to be its presidential candidate, he mentioned something in his acceptance speech that seemed to come out of left field. "The representatives of certain foreign governments gather people to whom they give money -- so-called 'grantees' -- whom they instruct, find them 'suitable work' in order to influence the result of the election campaign in our country," he said, adding that "Judas is not the most respected biblical character among our people." It was old-school, West-bashing, Cold War-invoking Putin at his best.

It was also, it turns out, very carefully aimed. Over the weekend, as United Russia waved its flags and cheered its leader, two journalists from state-controlled television station NTV showed up at the offices of Golos ("Voice" or "Vote"), the only Russian NGO with the means and credibility to monitor elections. The uninvited film crew came to sit in on a training session for volunteers and, according to Golos's accounts, made quite the entrance. They watched a Golos training video and interviewed the organization's director, Lilia Shibanova (as she told me, "aggressively"), asking her about her organization's connection to the CIA.

The next day, the same journalists arrived to find Grigory Melkonyants, Golos's deputy director. They stuck a camera in his face and started yelling at him about the etiology of his salary (the United States, naturally) and alleging that Golos was attempting to disrupt Sunday, Dec. 4's parliamentary elections. The resultant video, recorded on Melkonyants's phone, quickly went viral when it made it onto the web a couple of days later. It shows the two screaming at each other: NTV insinuating sordid connections to shadowy Western organizations, Melkonyants repeating over and over and over again: "You are Surkov's propaganda." (He was referring to Vladislav Surkov, the architect of the power vertical, creator of United Russia and Nashi, and a man who makes Karl Rove look like a professional dilettante.) The repetition of the phrase -- 84 times in all -- was designed to make the footage unusable for the kind of hatchet pieces NTV airs on figures who suddenly fall from official grace.

The half-hour film segment, called "Voice Out of Nowhere," finally made it onto the air Friday, but not before three Duma deputies wrote a letter to Russia's prosecutor general, alleging that Golos's newspaper breaks the law by "giving direct assessments of the progress of the election campaign in our country." Furthermore, the organization, the deputies allege, is merely a shell organization for the U.S. Congress and State Department to influence internal Russian politics. The deputies' demand? Shut Golos down.

A statement by Vladimir Churov, head of the Central Election Commission and loyal Putin defender, followed, claiming that Golos was waging a campaign against United Russia. There was the sudden removal of a banner on Wednesday from the liberal Internet newspaper Gazeta.ru advertising its joint project with Golos: an interactive map tracking all election law violations submitted by users. (Asked whether Gazeta.ru had been pressured to remove this banner, Editor in Chief Mikhail Kotov only said, "I'd rather leave this without comment.") Then, Friday, in a hastily scheduled court hearing and verdict, Golos was found guilty, during just one morning session, of abusing media privileges -- and ordered to pay a roughly $1,000 fine.

Golos, which, with its vast network of volunteers carpeting Russia, has been an invaluable resource to journalists covering Russian elections, has never denied that it receives foreign funding. "We survive on foreign grants because the government will never finance the kind of work we do," Shibanova told me this week. "But the money does not influence our results." She readily listed the mosaic of grants, large and small, that make up Golos's roughly $2.5 million election-year budget: the U.S. Agency for International Development, the National Democratic Institute, British and Scandinavian embassies, the European Commission. Nor does she deny that Golos observers often pose as journalists in order to get into the polling stations, something she says is impossible to avoid after the passage of a law, in 2005, banning all election monitors except those sent by the parties themselves, or journalists. "Of course we pose as journalists!" Shibanova said. "What else can we do if you ban any public observers and allow in only representatives from the parties themselves?"

This is not the first time election observers have faced trouble in Russia -- European monitors generally have a difficult time getting accredited to cover Russian elections, and this year was no exception -- but the scale of the attack on Golos is unprecedented. It also fits into the context of an increasingly brazen campaign in which government officials and offices -- like Churov's Central Election Commission -- openly and unapologetically use their positions to campaign for United Russia. Or in which United Russia officials openly promise voters money directly proportional to election results. It is rather odd, for instance, that Churov steps in so openly for just one party -- United Russia -- which clearly has the lion's share of the advantage, as well as the financial, administrative, and media resources of the state, essentially, at its behest. "Before, they at least tried to hide this," says political analyst Maria Lipman, of the Carnegie Moscow Center. "Now, not only are they not hiding the fact that they're waging electoral campaigns from their desks and offices inside the government -- they're showing it off."

But heading into Sunday's vote, the Kremlin isn't just showing off its political will, administrative might, or even hubris and blunt honesty about what the process really is; it's also flaunting, albeit inadvertently, a fear of what that vote on Sunday might reveal. How else can one explain an otherwise sophisticated, cleverly nuanced system -- Surkov, unlike Rove, fetishizes the post-modern -- suddenly falling back on the crassest of methods? How else can one explain the explicit directive given to the foreign-news translation service within the state RIA news agency not to publish pieces critical of Putin and United Russia ahead of the elections? What happened to the state media system's brilliant shortcut of self-censorship? And what to make of the sudden prominence given to Western spooks, in Putin's speech, in the official letters to the prosecutor's office, and in nearly identical language? ("We have special services, and we have all the data about NGOs' being sponsored by foreign states," Dmitry Peskov, Putin's press secretary told me. "We have all the information, let's say, about some recommendations coming from the foreign states. Already we know NGOs that will start shouting on the 5th of December" -- the day after the elections -- "that these elections are not legitimate without paying any respect to the results.")

On Friday, still-president Dmitry Medvedev issued an appeal to his subjects. "How long will it take you to go and vote?" he asked. "Half an hour? An hour? But this hour will determine what kind of parliament the country will live with for five whole years." Will it be a parliament "torn apart by constant contradiction, unable to solve anything, as we've already seen in our history?" Medvedev asked, invoking the old bogeyman of the 1990s. Or will it be a parliament where "the majority will be responsible politicians [read: United Russia deputies] who can actually improve the quality of life?"

Whatever kind of parliament the Kremlin gets on Sunday, Surkov will find a way to work with it or around it. But, given the public rumblings of the last two months as well as the Kremlin's crass response, it seems that the Kremlin is increasingly uncertain about how its citizens will spend that hour.

ALEXANDER ZEMLIANICHENKO/AFP/Getty Images