The Sick Man of Pakistan

In Dubai for medical treatment with coup rumors swirling back home, Asif Ali Zardari's presidency appears to be on its last legs. So what else is new?

BY SHAMILA N. CHAUDHARY | DECEMBER 8, 2011

The truth is out there -- but it doesn't really matter what it is. This seems to be the mantra for politics in Pakistan these days, and none of us are immune from it. The Pakistani press was quick to judge President Asif Ali Zardari's last-minute trip to Dubai for medical treatment as a form of political exile in disguise at the behest of the military. His departure instantly confirmed the prevailing view that Zardari is increasingly on the ropes with the military and that the "Memogate" scandal -- in which Zardari allegedly drafted a cable to the U.S. government offering to reshape Pakistan's military leadership -- was indeed the straw that broke the camel's back for the military. This is Pakistan after all, a place where the military is always in charge. Is it any wonder none of us really waited to learn the full details of Zardari's trip to Dubai before speculating on the political possibilities of a post-Zardari Pakistan?

Rumors of Zardari's political demise have been greatly exaggerated a number of times over the course of his eventful three-year presidency. While it's certainly too early to count him out now, his already weak political position now seems even further compromised, and it's not too soon to look at the scenarios for how this weak, but surprisingly resilient, leader could leave the stage and who might replace him.  

Given Pakistan's historic penchant for dramatic changes in power -- with three successful coups and numerous unsuccessful attempts since 1949 -- the military shenanigans scenario remains firmly within the realm of possibility. Let us not forget former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's attempt to sack Army Chief of Staff Pervez Musharraf by not allowing his plane to land in 1999. In response, Musharraf initiated a coup against Sharif's government, placed him under house arrest, and formally indicted him on charges of hijacking, kidnapping, attempted murder, and treason. Musharraf then assumed power as chief executive, became president and remained in power for the next nine years.

Don't hold your breath for this "counter-coup" scenario to unfold this time around. While Army chief of staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani does face criticism from senior military leadership and lower ranks for allowing a corrupt and inefficient civilian leadership to remain in place, he is less activist-minded than other military chiefs. His primary goal remains to keep the military visibly out of politics and improve the domestic image of the military. Ousting Zardari for his alleged involvement in "Memogate" would circumvent the judicial investigation underway, unleash public criticism of military interference, and confirm what the world has already concluded: that the military runs the show in Pakistan and is paving the path for an eventual return to dictatorship. While the counter-coup scenario is always plausible for Pakistan, it is less likely with the current cast of characters.  

As weak as Zardari appears now, it's also important to realize that no one in Pakistan ever thought he would last this long. Before coming to power, he was known as "Mr. 10 Percent," having served two prison sentences for seeking financial kickbacks from government contracts, corruption and misuse of public funds during the tenure of his wife, Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. Other allegations against him range from conspiracy to murder, kidnapping, extortion, money laundering, and questions about the validity of his educational background. This is hardly the profile of a president who would prove adroit beyond expectations at keeping together a coalition government known for its opportunists, concession-seekers, and obstructionists.

BEN STANSALL/AFP/Getty Images

 

Shamila N. Chaudhary is a South Asia analyst at the Eurasia Group and a senior fellow at the New America Foundation. She served as director for Pakistan and Afghanistan at the White House National Security Council from 2010-2011.

CBRCODER

9:12 AM ET

December 9, 2011

I don't think it makes any difference.

Well I don't think it will have any difference at all. The Pakistan government is run by the army actually. The political leadership there is just a puppet there.

From web designer and web development team.

 

DRMASOODTARIQ

8:17 PM ET

December 9, 2011

Political Governance v/s Establishment

Personality based politics by the way of own agenda through individually managed and self loyal persons as an alternative of party manifesto politics, results non-systemized and un-organized party structure, un-skilled and un-experienced leadership, non-political aptitude workers.

Whereas, establishment is well skilled and organized, experienced and systemized in bureaucratic and administrative duties at national, provincial and local level.

Therefore, manifesto less politics, fragile party structure and pseudo-political coworkers, force the political leaders either to subordinate or confront the establishment for politics or governance instead of reciprocal, honorable, reliable and fruitful institutional working relationship to perform their charter of duties according to the constitution, laws and rules of business.

In matter of fact, political parties are supposed to:

1. Work as a bureaucrat to prepare proper plans and programs through well skilled persons of related subject.

2. Act as an administrator to perform party affairs and redress public grievances through well experienced people of related field.

3. Behave as a social worker to interact with party supporters and general public through well respected personalities of related locality.

For this reason, political parties are required to be organized and systemized appropriately by considering the necessity of cadres at union council, tehsil, district, province and national level.

a. Cadre of leaders or initiators: comprised on persons, those possess intellectual wisdom to prepare proper plans and programs.

b. Cadre of workers or motivators: comprised on persons, those have organizational skill to organize and systematize the party.

c. Cadre of supporters or actors: comprised on persons, those are socially well respected among the masses and competent to collaborate and cooperate with public.

However, in Pakistan, political parties were/are never organized and systemized by the party owners according to the political ethics and manners along with party manifesto. Therefore, most of political parties work like Private Limited Companies and have their own sole agents, distributors and salesmen. Because of that most of the politicians have their own paid workers and working partners. They behave with the political workers like customers and they treat the general public like slaves.

CONSEQUENCE: Public feels disappointment, remains dissatisfied, become disillusioned from politicians and political parties. Therefore, opportunists, hypocrites and power as well as money hunger persons get the opportunity to arrange, manage or attain the domination and control of governance or politics. It results administrative victimization, judicial injustice, economical disaster and social polarization.

CONCLUSION: Grooming of local, provincial and national leadership is not possible without well organized and systemized political parties as per party manifesto and according to the political ethics and manners. Otherwise, un-groomed politicians, un-organized and non-systemized political parties have to subordinate or confront the establishment for politics or governance instead of reciprocal, honorable, reliable and fruitful institutional working relationship to perform their charter of duties according to the constitution, laws and rules of business.

DRAWBACK: Although, establishment is well skilled and organized, experienced and systemized in bureaucratic and administrative duties but without political wisdom; whereas political aptitude is necessary for the political and democratic atmosphere. Therefore, direct governance or proxy politics in shape of sponsorship, facilitation or by the way of producing pseudo-political leaders, workers and supporters breed the aggressive, arrogant and authoritarian perception of establishment in individuals, masses and democratic institutions.

It generates the emotions and impression of dictatorial rule of establishment by suppressing the personal, public and political privileges.

It facilitates the opportunists, hypocrites and power as well as money hunger persons to arrange, manage or attain the domination and control in governance or politics.

It leads towards cultivation of race, region and religion related differences, disputes and distrust along with conflicts, confrontations and clashes.

It promotes the personality based politics by the way of own agenda through individually managed and self loyal persons as an alternative of party manifesto politics, which results non-systemized and un-organized party structure; un-skilled and un-experienced leadership and non-political aptitude workers.

It destabilizes the social environment, economical stability and governance system.

It results social polarization, economical disaster and administrative victimization.

SUGGESTIONS: Systemized and organized party structure with skilled and experienced leadership and political mindset workers is the prerequisite of political potentiality and stability as well as reciprocal honorable, reliable and fruitful institutional working relationship according to the constitution, laws and rules of business.

Therefore, political parties are required to launch the “Political Brain Hunt” program to search the political aptitude leaders and workers from every district by the central rank leadership; from every tehsil by the provincial rank leadership and from every union council by the district rank leadership to organize and systemize their parties along with plan of grooming political ethics and skills in party leadership and workers by holding meetings, seminars and workshops.

NOTE: Skill as a prerequisite for establishment is sufficient, but for holder of power wisdom is the initial prerequisite.

QUOTE: Mankind will never see an end of the trouble until and unless; lovers of the wisdom come to hold political power or holder of power become lover of wisdom. (Plato)

 

DRMASOODTARIQ

8:34 PM ET

December 9, 2011

Pakistan is facing a Hard Time of Life

Pakistan is the world’s sixth most-populous and second Muslim-majority country and also has the second-largest Shi'a population in the world. About 97% of the Pakistanis are Muslim. Pakistan has the seventh largest standing armed force and is the only Muslim-majority nation to possess nuclear weapons. It is designated as a major Non-Nato ally of the United States and a strategic ally of China. It is a founding member of the organization of the Islamic conference and a member of the United Nations, Commonwealth of Nations, next eleven economies and the G20 developing nations.

However, as a matter of fact, currently the Pakistan is hanging like a pendulum between U.S.A and China along with many regional and supporting players due to geo-political position in war of domination, because of, communication and energy corridors, geographical presence at door step of China at north, central Asian states through Afghanistan at north west, Iran at south west and Arabian sea at south. Therefore, neither the U.S.A is able to isolate the Pakistan like Iraq and not be able to capture like Afghanistan. As this type of adventure will provoke the interests of other key world players particularly China and Russia, thus, it may initiate the 3rd world war.

Due to the game of domination between international players, during this decade, either the Pakistan will be the Asian tiger with strong institutions and political parties or a failure state with strong personalities and war lords. As, the Russia was already attempting to reach the warm water but now China is also willing for it by 2030 and from 2020 China will start the advancement towards the Arabian sea, till 2020 China will work to choose and secure the corridors. However, owing to Chinese role in Pakistan since 60’s, people of Pakistan trust the China as a faithful friend. Consequently; people of Pakistan are not ready to support any action against Chinese interest, as they did against Russia for decades.

Pakistan is facing a hard time of life due to communication and energy corridors. Therefore, if China is ready to reach the Arabian Sea in near future then Pakistan will be a battle ground instead of communication and energy corridor, primarily the region of Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa will happen to be the main target. If not then, it is not suitable for U.S.A to break or even reduce the strategic relationship with Pakistan. Because without geographical support of Pakistan, U.S.A will lose the control over Afghanistan and Russia will again advance towards the warm water. Yet any plan of U.S.A to convert Pakistan into a battle ground will force or facilitate the Pakistan to change the camp. Otherwise, Pakistan will prefer to maintain the strategic relationship with U.S.A.

Furthermore, people of Pakistan are also fading up by the arrogant, autocratic, dictatorial, dogmatic and tyrannical rulers as well as crooked, corrupt, dishonest, dummy, puppet and pseudo politicians, along with their masters, patrons and facilitators (mostly the PAK-US establishment). Therefore, it is a hard time for PAK-US establishment and Pakistani politicians to revise their policy, to make it according to the will and wish of Pakistani people.

Although, for game of domination between international players, the suitable option is, the will and wish of “people of Pakistan” represented by the national political leadership. Furthermore, the sovereignty, integrity and national interests of Pakistan are an internal subject, related to the qualities of nation and leadership. But, due to un-organized and non-systemized national political parties, since from Liaquat Ali khan era to present government, dictatorial and puppet rulers were sweet choice for U.S.A, to secure the interests in Pakistan and to keep Russia away from the warm water.

However, now people of Pakistan are fading up. They are furious and frustrated about the dictatorial rulers and puppet leaders due to negligence of public affairs, interests and problems. Consequently, in future, atmosphere and circumstances will not support the dictatorial rulers and puppet politicians, absolutely. Because, in future era game of domination between U.S.A, Russia and China will enhance in North Africa, Middle East and central Asia. Therefore, Pakistani politics will start to dominate the national and international issues at public ground too. Therefore, due to geo-political importance of Pakistan; it will facilitate the “people of Pakistan” and “major national political players” to make Pakistan an Asian tiger through well-built state institutions along with properly organized and systemized political parties.

Nevertheless, non-democratic and un-constitutional actions by the establishment or non-political and un-ethical activities by the national and provincial level politicians along with un-organized and non-systemized political parties, will abrupt the situation and lead the country towards a failure and malfunctioning state by way of strong personalities and war lords. Because, in past era due to social polarization, administrative victimization and economical disintegration, lower and middle class peaceful, law-abiding and honest people of Pakistan have suffered a lot. But now they are going to be immune and reactive. It is visible from their attitude of ignorance and not-willingly participating in political and governance activities.

Whereas, the dictatorial rulers, elite class feudal lords, opportunist and hypocrite politicians along with their companions were the advantageous lot by means of dividing and disappointing the nation through cultivating and harvesting the regional, ethnic, sectarian and locality oriented emotions and interests. But now they are going to be fragile and filthy. It is noticeable from their lack of attention in public politics and governance activities, due to public embarrassment and feeling of ashamed by their political and governance character.

However, due to geo-political importance of Pakistan in war of regional domination and psychosomatic aptitude of Pakistani people, at any time and every type of political proxy facilitation to counter the attempts of destabilization and insurgency in Pakistan, at national and international stage, by the U.S opposing players; especially China or Russia will burst the situation. Because, due to domination and control of opportunists, hypocrites and power as well as money hunger persons in governance and politics, public is already under threat of administrative victimization and judicial injustice along with economical disaster and social polarization.

Therefore, institutionally collapsed and economically distorted Pakistan, along with, socially polarized, administratively victimized and politically deprived people of Pakistan due to terrorism, fascism and nepotism, as a result of inefficiency, misconduct and corruptive practices of dogmatic and tyrannical rulers as well as puppet and pseudo politicians in conjunction with their masters, patrons and facilitators (mostly the PAK-US establishment), may turn out to be a major political and moral hazard for U.S.A at national and international level. Defiantly, it will be consequential to the war of regional domination, along with control over Afghanistan.

 

FERNANDORE

3:43 PM ET

December 13, 2011

Zardari, go!

i Agree in Go Zardari, go! Stop this charade and let the truth prevail. ...thanks !

 

ROSE2446

12:28 AM ET

December 23, 2011

They will stay corrupt

Its amazing that the united states has spent so much money and time dealing with Pakistan. It is very clearly a corrupt and seemingly helpless situation over there. google redirect fix I think the United States has done about all they can do over there in the middle east. We have fought a battle over there that you just cant win. It will never be perfect and its time to focus on our own problems now.

 

DOMINOES

8:48 PM ET

January 6, 2012

the arab spring continues

This time the arab spring is making people sick, which is a much better choice than dead or dismembered like the rest of the dictators in the arab world. Crazy times in our world that we live in...but I think that we will see a lot more change until the powers that be can control the internet from those who use it to overthrow the powers that be...it is time to take a stand against oppression and live in peace air ambulance lets see how the rest of this plays out over time, but it will only get more interesting from here on out csa travelinsurance...good luck and god's speed.