Next Year, in Review

From the fall of Ahmadinejad, Assad, Castro, and Chavez to the rise of cyberattacks -- the top 13 stories that could dominate the headlines in 2012.

BY DAVID ROTHKOPF | DECEMBER 12, 2011

If you were asked to name the five top foreign-policy stories of 2011, it probably wouldn't take too long. You'd have to put the Arab Spring on top of the list. Next would come the Eurocrisis. Getting Osama bin Laden probably also rates. Then what? Fukushima? Turmoil in Pakistan? Year of the Drone?

There might be a little debate about how to order these or which not to include. And there could very well be a discussion about whether to include arguably bigger, slower-moving stories like climate change, advances in social networking, growing risks of securitization, financialization of commodities, failures to develop effective supranational governance mechanisms, and demographic shifts creating political pressures from Russia to Israel to China to Europe and beyond.  

But since the year has already flashed by like a fever dream, leaving us all in the need of a shower and some serious rehydration, making such lists is not all that difficult. The real feat is in picking the most important foreign-policy stories of 2012. That requires daring, creativity and a willingness to place one's trust in the idea that no one will go back and check on these predictions in a year.

And that's why they pay me those big blogger dollars -- to dust off the FP Ouija board and tell you what is waiting for you just around the turn of the year. So here they are: the most important foreign-policy stories of 2012.

Leadership change in power centers worldwide

Ok, I'll admit it, this one is too easy. We know that changes or key elections are coming in the United States, China, important countries in Europe, Mexico, Egypt and elsewhere. It happens every year. But given the precarious nature of the world, its propensity for volatility, and the pivotal nature of the countries involved, this will be a dominant story throughout the year.

Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images

 

David Rothkopf is a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and author of the upcoming "Power, Inc." due out in early 2012 from Farrar, Straus & Giroux.

 

GRANT

3:59 PM ET

December 12, 2011

Frankly I find some obvious,

Frankly I find some obvious, others dubious, and I once again feel compelled to remind people that they should not mention the Middle East and then name nations such as Afghanistan and Pakistan.

 

NICOLAS19

4:11 AM ET

December 13, 2011

wishful thinking

Oh, my... it was truly fun to read. From the depth of "China, Syria, Iran, Pakistan magically collapses" to the US being a "surprise winner of the global recession", it is such a gem of juvenile naivety. Your problems will just magically disappear at the blink of an eye! If you wish it hard enough you may pass the exam, but I suggest sitting down to study instead.

Random questions: how can you become a "winner" of the global market when you have an unsustainable economy (negative budget) and your creditor has just collapsed (according to your prediction)? How can you be still a force in Afghanistan if your main ally there, the Pakistani regime, has just disappeared and you can't even supply your own troops?

Never mind. I suggest adding a 14th page, suggesting that in 2012 "God descends from heaven to kiss Mr. Rothkopf on the cheek", it is about as well-founded as the others.

 

AR

4:20 AM ET

December 17, 2011

I agree 100%! The title

I agree 100%! The title should be changed to 'What Rothkopf wishes to occur in 2012'.

 

FP2011

3:23 PM ET

January 7, 2012

Vote for page 14!

Good one Nicolas19... made me laugh!

 

CONTATOCA

5:49 AM ET

December 13, 2011

Us see what happens the

Either it would be full of news on television or would land up in a slow and steady manner. Thanks for sharing !

 

JOHN.NADDY

11:46 AM ET

December 13, 2011

The Elections

Hope the elections in 2012 in some power center will have some good results. Mahogany Furniture

 

NEPALI_KETO

2:58 PM ET

December 13, 2011

Uncovered true

Truest me editor,

you missed one more country list, Nepal - in 2012, either it will take the way where would gonna watch it or move is such a bad way which no one ever excepting at the moment.

Either Constituion will come out with result or country go back to 10/20 years back again.

regards

Keshab
Value Calculator

 

IBTISAMASIF

3:43 PM ET

December 13, 2011

Quality work

The young Egyptian professional could pass for any New York bachelor.

Dressed in a crisp polo shirt and swathed in cologne, he races his Nissan Maxima through the rain-slicked streets of Manhattan, late for a date with a tall brunette. At red lights, he fusses with his hair.

What sets the bachelor apart from other young men on the make is the chaperon sitting next to him — a tall, bearded man in a white robe and stiff embroidered hat.

"I pray that Allah will bring this couple together," the man, Sheik Reda Shata, says, clutching his seat belt and urging the bachelor to slow down.

Christian singles have coffee hour. Young Jews have JDate. But many Muslims believe that it is forbidden for an unmarried man and woman to meet in private. In predominantly Muslim countries, the job of making introductions and even arranging marriages typically falls to a vast network of family and friends.

In Brooklyn, there is Mr. Shata.

Week after week, Muslims embark on dates with him in tow. Mr. Shata, the imam of a Bay Ridge mosque, juggles some 550 "marriage candidates," from a gold-toothed electrician to a professor at Columbia University. The meetings often unfold on the green velour couch of his office, or over a meal at his favorite Yemeni restaurant on Atlantic Avenue.

The bookish Egyptian came to America in 2002 to lead prayers, not to dabble in matchmaking. He was far more conversant in Islamic jurisprudence than in matters of the heart. But American imams must wear many hats, none of which come tailor-made.

Whether issuing American-inspired fatwas or counseling the homesick, fielding questions from the F.B.I. or mediating neighborhood spats, Mr. Shata walks an endless labyrinth of problems.

If anything seems conquerable, it is the solitude of Muslim singles. Nothing brings the imam more joy than guiding them to marriage. It is his way of fashioning a future for his faith. It is his most heartfelt effort — by turns graceful and comedic, vexing and hopeful — to make Islam work in America.

Word of the imam's talents has traveled far, eliciting lonely calls from Muslims in Chicago and Los Angeles, or from meddlesome parents in Cairo and Damascus.

From an estimated 250 chaperoned dates, Mr. Shata has produced 10 marriages.

"The prophet said whoever brings a man and woman together, it is as if he has worshiped for an entire year," said Mr. Shata, 37, speaking through an Arabic translator.

The task is not easy. In a country of plentiful options, Muslim immigrants can become picky, even rude, the imam complains.

During one date, a woman studied the red-circled eyes of a prospective husband and asked, "Have you brought me an alcoholic?"

On another occasion, an Egyptian man stared at the flat chest of a pleasant young Moroccan woman and announced, "She looks like a log!" the imam recalled.

"This would never happen in Egypt," said Mr. Shata, turning red at the memory. "Never, never. If I knew this boy had no manners I never would have let him into my office." The young Egyptian professional could pass for any New York bachelor.

Dressed in a crisp polo shirt and swathed in cologne, he races his Nissan Maxima through the rain-slicked streets of Manhattan, late for a date with a tall brunette. At red lights, he fusses with his hair.

What sets the bachelor apart from other young men on the make is the chaperon sitting next to him — a tall, bearded man in a white robe and stiff embroidered hat.

"I pray that Allah will bring this couple together," the man, Sheik Reda Shata, says, clutching his seat belt and urging the bachelor to slow down.

Christian singles have coffee hour. Young Jews have JDate. But many Muslims believe that it is forbidden for an unmarried man and woman to meet in private. In predominantly Muslim countries, the job of making introductions and even arranging marriages typically falls to a vast network of family and friends.

In Brooklyn, there is Mr. Shata.

Week after week, Muslims embark on dates with him in tow. Mr. Shata, the imam of a Bay Ridge mosque, juggles some 550 "marriage candidates," from a gold-toothed electrician to a professor at Columbia University. The meetings often unfold on the green velour couch of his office, or over a meal at his favorite Yemeni restaurant on Atlantic Avenue.

The bookish Egyptian came to America in 2002 to lead prayers, not to dabble in matchmaking. He was far more conversant in Islamic jurisprudence than in matters of the heart. But American imams must wear many hats, none of which come tailor-made.

Whether issuing American-inspired fatwas or counseling the homesick, fielding questions from the F.B.I. or mediating neighborhood spats, Mr. Shata walks an endless labyrinth of problems.

If anything seems conquerable, it is the solitude of Muslim singles. Nothing brings the imam more joy than guiding them to marriage. It is his way of fashioning a future for his faith. It is his most heartfelt effort — by turns graceful and comedic, vexing and hopeful — to make Islam work in America.

Word of the imam's talents has traveled far, eliciting lonely calls from Muslims in Chicago and Los Angeles, or from meddlesome parents in Cairo and Damascus.

From an estimated 250 chaperoned dates, Mr. Shata has produced 10 marriages.

"The prophet said whoever brings a man and woman together, it is as if he has worshiped for an entire year," said Mr. Shata, 37, speaking through an Arabic translator.

The task is not easy. In a country of plentiful options, Muslim immigrants can become picky, even rude, the imam complains.

During one date, a woman studied the red-circled eyes of a prospective husband and asked, "Have you brought me an alcoholic?"

On another occasion, an Egyptian man stared at the flat chest of a pleasant young Moroccan woman and announced, "She looks like a log!" the imam recalled.

"This would never happen in Egypt," said Mr. Shata, turning red at the memory. "Never, never. If I knew this boy had no manners I never would have let him into my office." The young Egyptian professional could pass for any New York bachelor.

Dressed in a crisp polo shirt and swathed in cologne, he races his Nissan Maxima through the rain-slicked streets of Manhattan, late for a date with a tall brunette. At red lights, he fusses with his hair.

What sets the bachelor apart from other young men on the make is the chaperon sitting next to him — a tall, bearded man in a white robe and stiff embroidered hat.

"I pray that Allah will bring this couple together," the man, Sheik Reda Shata, says, clutching his seat belt and urging the bachelor to slow down.

Christian singles have coffee hour. Young Jews have JDate. But many Muslims believe that it is forbidden for an unmarried man and woman to meet in private. In predominantly Muslim countries, the job of making introductions and even arranging marriages typically falls to a vast network of family and friends.

In Brooklyn, there is Mr. Shata.

Week after week, Muslims embark on dates with him in tow. Mr. Shata, the imam of a Bay Ridge mosque, juggles some 550 "marriage candidates," from a gold-toothed electrician to a professor at Columbia University. The meetings often unfold on the green velour couch of his office, or over a meal at his favorite Yemeni restaurant on Atlantic Avenue.

The bookish Egyptian came to America in 2002 to lead prayers, not to dabble in matchmaking. He was far more conversant in Islamic jurisprudence than in matters of the heart. But American imams must wear many hats, none of which come tailor-made.

Whether issuing American-inspired fatwas or counseling the homesick, fielding questions from the F.B.I. or mediating neighborhood spats, Mr. Shata walks an endless labyrinth of problems.

If anything seems conquerable, it is the solitude of Muslim singles. Nothing brings the imam more joy than guiding them to marriage. It is his way of fashioning a future for his faith. It is his most heartfelt effort — by turns graceful and comedic, vexing and hopeful — to make Islam work in America.

Word of the imam's talents has traveled far, eliciting lonely calls from Muslims in Chicago and Los Angeles, or from meddlesome parents in Cairo and Damascus.

From an estimated 250 chaperoned dates, Mr. Shata has produced 10 marriages.

"The prophet said whoever brings a man and woman together, it is as if he has worshiped for an entire year," said Mr. Shata, 37, speaking through an Arabic translator.

The task is not easy. In a country of plentiful options, Muslim immigrants can become picky, even rude, the imam complains.

During one date, a woman studied the red-circled eyes of a prospective husband and asked, "Have you brought me an alcoholic?"

On another occasion, an Egyptian man stared at the flat chest of a pleasant young Moroccan woman and announced, "She looks like a log!" the imam recalled.

"This would never happen in Egypt," said Mr. Shata, turning red at the memory. "Never, never. If I knew this boy had no manners I never would have let him into my office."

Thanks

Admin of Alarm clocks | Electric kettles

 

MORNINGBRIEF

1:35 AM ET

December 14, 2011

World is changing

The year 2012 will be the year of Europe. Not economic events but the political events of the continent will be very interesting to watch.http://your-life-guide.com

 

MAINO

6:41 AM ET

December 14, 2011

Some predictions

In the US. Obama is narrowly re-elected on a vastly decreased turnout, prompting further downgrades of the US credit rating.

In France, Sarkozy loses in the first round of the Presidential election. In a Le Pen vs Hollande run off, Hollande wins comfortably, prompting a huge loss of confidence in the French governments ability to tackle its debts.

In the UK, the Olympics goes ahead without problems but is truly uninspiring. Growth is flat until the crisis in the Eurozone finally tips Britain back into a deeper recession, and Cameron gives in and agrees to hold a referendum on EU membership.

Across Europe, anti-austerity protests and general strikes cause huge damage to growth prospects. Massive anti-German sentiment born from Frankfurt and Berlin wielding veto over national budgets leads to attacks on the German embassy in Athens.

Greece leaves the Euro, triggering another banking crisis and credit crunch. The ECB steps in to save itself and the currency by pumping a trillion Euro's into buying up debt in Italy, Spain and Portugal to in an unconvincing attempt to stave off contagion, causing high inflation to go alongside the 10% that is knocked off Eurozone GDP.

Merkel's coalition collapses. A federal election is called in Germany. The SPD, the Left and the Greens enter into a coalition. Bunds hit 5% as German credit rating is downgraded considerably.

In the Middle East, the Iranian Parliamentary Elections are again defined by huge Green movement protests. The regime ballot stuffs and sends the thugs out. Huge crisis as the Supreme Leader pressures Ahmadinejad to resign. He refuses. An armed insurgency begins, and we see barbarity that makes what is happening in Syria look like a Disney movie. The nuclear industry is hit by Stuxnet 2.0. And a wave of unexplained explosions and assassinations keep nuke ambitions in check.

This, alongside US withdrawal, causes huge instability in Iraq, and a return to the sectarian style violence of the 4-5 years ago.

In Syria, Assad falls eventually towards the end of the year. Assad flees to Iran as, he's never really been committed to the fight anyway. Revenge attacks against Alawites, and a general climate of sectarian division means that, in the eventual elections Sunni hardliners dominate the government. And we all realise that nothing much has changed.

In Egypt the military refuse to hand over meaningful power to the Brotherhood after Freedom and Justice triumph in elections. Crowds out in Tahrir. The military crack down hard. Nothing much changes.

In Russia, Putin wins the Presidency, but is now damaged and weak. Seeking to assert himself he deploys missiles to Kaliningrad and starts expanding Russia's naval presence in the Arctic Ocean in anticipation of commencing oil exploration. Putin also orders his Central Asian proxies to remove all military cooperation with the US and NATO. However the financial crisis in Europe alongside lower oil and gas prices caused by a massive slowdown in Chinese growth, mean that social unrest really kicks off in Russia, with huge protests and high inflation.

In China, growth rates collapse to 4%. The social unrest that follows is met with a Tiananmen style crackdown by the new generation of leaders. China expands its presence in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean.

North Korea realises it has considerably more room for antagonising the South than it once did. Renewed skirmishes along the borders result in a bolstering of the regime in Pyongyang.

Afghanistan continues to get more and more violent throughout the year, as Western commitment to the country gets weaker and weaker. The Haqqani network continues to cause havoc in Kabul on a regular basis. The Taliban continue to bide their time. Karzai continues to become more authoritarian the more insecure his regime becomes.

In Pakistan, the government collapses. The military take over in a backdoor coup in a time of 'national crisis'. The country continues to be an untrustworthy partner, becomes even less cooperative with NATO, playing the long game in Afghanistan whilst sanctioning new attacks by its minions against the 'evil neighbour'.

In Venezuela, Chavez dies. Opposition take power. Venezuela returns to being a Colombian style US proxy in the region.

And a whole bunch of other stuff happens. Or doesn't happen. Who knows. It's the future.

 

SCOOP

10:02 AM ET

December 14, 2011

Getting an early start to 2012?

Rebellious Chinese village under siege by police by Ed Flanagan, NBC News, Dec 13, 2011

"For years, in the name of social harmony, China’s ruling Communist Party has been highly successful in masking, placating or simply distorting the tens of thousands of protests – dubbed 'mass demonstrations' – that occur here ever year. The Wukan rebellion will prove a tougher dilemma for Beijing to solve. From The Telegraph newspaper’s Malcolm Moore comes details of the stunning story of Wukan, a fishing village of 20,000 in China’s southern Guangdong Province. Earlier this week, the entire town rose up and threw out local party officials and police forces following years of having the people’s land sold out from underneath them."

 

SCOOP

1:40 PM ET

December 15, 2011

End of 'easy' money?

Analysis: China's $300 billion fund a wake-up call to U.S. | by Nick Edwards (Reuters) - Dec 14, 2011

"China's plan for a new $300 billion sovereign wealth fund is as much a warning to Washington as it is a body blow to Brussels. It's the clearest sign yet of Beijing's waning faith in bonds issued by Europe and the United States. Europe's festering debt debacle, record low yields on U.S. Treasuries and a depreciating dollar all add weight to the view in China that the time is ripe to change investment tack. That gels with comments from investment sources with links to China's monetary authorities and foreign reserve managers who detect a clear desire in Beijing to acquire real assets in return for supplying fresh funds to bridge U.S. deficits and recapitalize European financial institutions and governments."