Game Change

From reciprocal nuclear reductions to making nice with Iran, 5 bold moves that could change the world.

BY STEPHEN M. WALT | DECEMBER 13, 2011

What are some potential game-changers in contemporary international diplomacy? By "game-changer," I mean a bold and risky initiative that fundamentally alters the strategic landscape, creating new possibilities and forcing others to rethink their own positions.

I'm thinking about the kind of bold stroke that the late Michael Handel analyzed in his book The Diplomacy of Surprise: Hitler, Nixon, Sadat. He was interested in how certain leaders launched faits accomplis or other unexpected maneuvers to break out of diplomatic gridlocks. Obvious examples are Richard Nixon's opening to China, Anwar Sadat's surprise announcement that he was willing to go to Jerusalem in search of peace, or (less positively) the infamous Molotov-Ribbentrop pact that briefly united Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union and helped open the door to World War II. These initiatives often involved advance planning behind the scenes, but they were unexpected at the time and had dramatic effects as soon as they were revealed.

So I've been trying to imagine other steps that contemporary world leaders could take that might have equally dramatic effects. This sort of initiative can be risky, of course, and there's no guarantee that a bold gamble will succeed. With that caveat, here's a short list of five potential "game-changers," in no particular order.  

AFP/Getty Images

 

Stephen M. Walt, an FP contributing editor, is Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international affairs at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government. He blogs at walt.foreignpolicy.com.

SPOOD

5:49 PM ET

December 13, 2011

Some of these are just plain dumb.

The nuclear disarmament one was the only sensible one of the bunch.

"The United States Takes the Military Option "off the Table" with Iran "

Iran would be disappointed in that. The whole point of their nuclear program was to provoke the US in the first place. Iran's nuclear development has nothing to do with a response to outside threats and everything to do with trying to create one.

"Hamas Revises Its Charter "

Maybe for shits and giggles they can decide not to fire Katushya rockets indiscriminately at Israel as well, reconcile with Fatah and maybe decide it should take the responsibility of ruling the people it controls in Gaza. Who cares what its charter says if their actions are the same?

"Israel Accepts the Arab League Peace Plan"

You mean the one with the built in provisions guaranteed to not be accepted such as reverting to 1967 borders (an idea which won't work for either party), right of return (Arafat's old ploy to demographically destroy Israel). The plans not endorsed by EITHER PARTY to the conflict. The typical Arab League Peace Plans are done strictly for media attention. To give the impression that they want a peaceful resolution without the messy parts of having real negotiated provisions or writing it in a way to be acceptable to both parties.

"China Proposes Multilateral Negotiation and Arbitration over the South China Sea"

When has China ever bothered to submit to any form of international law when it could be potentially adverse to its interests? Rule of Law is not something generally spoken of when discussing how China's government acts.

 

ALEXANDER.RED

8:08 AM ET

December 14, 2011

Look ahead

You're a bit short-sighted old-chap. Substance in either the Likud party platform and the Hamas charter have nothing to do with the impact their revision would produce- which is the focal point of a game changer. Foreign politics analysis have nothing to do with direct ideology- politicians are smarter than that. You, on the other hand are a different story...

 

CYBERFOOL

12:50 PM ET

December 14, 2011

Right of Return

Actually, the actual "right of return" is becoming less and less of a threat to the "Jewishness" of Israel. The problem isn't the right of return, it is the right to have the right inherited. The very youngest Palistinian infants that actually lived in Israel and are now barred from returning home are at least 45 y.o. People who were adults at that time are at least in their mid-60s and that traunch is dying out. Besides, how many 65 y.o. are going to want to move if their children and grandchildren can't be with them.

My point is that the "right of return" is not a brick-wall show-stopper.

Ultimately, there will need to be a 2-state or 1-state solution & the 2-state solution allows for the preservation of the Jewish character of Israel. A 1-state solution (which is really what the status-quo is) and preservation of the Jewish character of Israel requires an appartied-like status, which is not sustainable for the long haul.

 

CYBERFOOL

12:54 PM ET

December 14, 2011

French Revolution

Is it a little strange that the Arabs would be anti-French Revolution? I don't see them as pro-royalists nor Huegonauts.

 

BING520

1:29 PM ET

December 14, 2011

SPOOD

I like the nuclear disarmament. It has been a main theme for peace activitists.

"All options are on the table." is a statement the US uses almost universally in an international conflict. I doubt it is necessary. The military threat is efficascious when implied. "All options are on the table" actually makes the military option stand out. It is not conducive to forging a framework for negotiation. No national leader wants to be seen as being cowered into a negotiation. SPOOD's argument is that Iranian leadership wants to be threatened militarily so as to make a choice to build its own nuclear bomb unavoidable. This is NOT an unreasonable strategic game play. If that being the case, we are playing the game Iran wants us to play.

I think SPOOD is right. Iran will work tirelessly to strengthen its relationship with China and Russia and to win over Afghanistan and Iraq once NATO and the US leave in the meantime Iran will continue to provoke carefully and thoughtfully. We will be able to tell how good Iran is at playing this game. The difficulty we have in dealing with Iran is that our politicians are brilliant at short-term solutions and clueless about long-term strategic planning. After Nixon and Reagan, we have few long-term visionary leaders. By the way, Reagan is an advocate for nuclear disarmament.

SPOOD's comment on China is merely a reactionary response. There are many agreements between the US and China. To a very large, not totally comprehensive, extent, all agreements are being adhered to. China has rarely played the game we think they must play. China has been and still is a weaker world power positioned itself exceedingly well. We have been unsuccessful to dislodge China off its strategic international advantages.

If I were a Chinese long-term planner, I would delay a final decision or agreement on South China Sea until China is militarily and economically strong enough to extract better terms. Keeping the South China Sea issue unsolved and nebulous at the nearest future is good to China while China is still growing. The US should have a clear agreement on South China Sea as soon as possible so that we don't have devote too much our resources, attention and energy to a corner so remote from us. How to do it is a tough question. The "all options are on the table" cliche" would not help us much.

 

CONTATOCA

2:31 PM ET

December 14, 2011

i Agree in " French Revolution "

i Agree in a little strange that the Arabs would be anti-French Revolution? I don't see them as pro-royalists nor Huegonauts....good work !

 

YANKEE

4:10 PM ET

December 14, 2011

Really Dumb

I think this author is smoking something...can't believe this was posted. Classic elitest with zero true understanding. Jumps straight to high minded jibberish.

 

BING520

3:13 PM ET

December 15, 2011

USMARINESNIPER

I have disagreed with many why commented on FP. Some comments did anger me angry. USMARINESNIPER turns out to be one of the most pitiful, most obnoxious guy who ever commented. USMARINESNIPER simply kills the joy of discovering different viewpoits and the excitement of being challenged.

 

LISASHUTTERS

2:59 AM ET

December 19, 2011

USMARINER

That was an absolutely ignorant response.

DIY Homemade Solar Panels

 

DAN NJ

9:06 PM ET

December 13, 2011

Agree with SPOOD

I think spood is right on about only the nuclear reduction idea being the only one that makes sense from a strategic sense. What the difference between the other ideas and the Hitler Nixon Sadat examples is is that in those instances the actor in question just prioritized and realized what their first order interest was and how getting flexible on a secondary issue could help them in the long run.

Been sitting her for like ten minutes cant think of any ideas of my own so maybe i shouldnt hate

 

SAITHKAR

10:28 AM ET

December 14, 2011

Probably the biggest game

Probably the biggest game changer in current geopolitics would be Kim Jong-Il snuffing it and the new leadership of North Korea (whoever that is, maybe Kim Jong-Un, maybe not) moving away from the isolationism towards either detente with South Korea or maybe a continuation of authoritarian rule but with more open markets a la China.

The Hamas charter idea is a good one, but perhaps an even better move would be for Israel to drop it's facile and risible insistence that it be recognised as a "Jewish state". This term is both meaningless (is Italy a "Catholic state, is Thailand a "Buddhist state" and how does a majority religion change the essential character of a state in this realist world we live in - apologies to anyone who takes the constructionist view of IR - where all states are equivalent?) and harmful to a wider peace as pointless preconditions take up valuable negotiating time that could otherwise be better spent. A real commitment to peace from Tel Aviv (whether with Fatah or Hamas) would really change the landscape of world affairs.

 

ZAINABSAIF

1:12 PM ET

December 14, 2011

Change is with revoloution

This image shows the average temperature profile through the Earth’s atmosphere. Temperatures in the thermosphere are very sensitive to solar activity and can vary from 500°C to 1500°C. Source: Windows to the Universe, (http://www.windows.ucar.edu), the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR). ©1995-1999, 2000 The Regents of the University of Michigan; ©2000-04 University Corporation for Atmospheric Research.

Rain, for one, is ‘returned’ to Earth by the clouds in the atmosphere. Explaining the hydrologic cycle, Encyclopedia Britannica writes:

“Water evaporates from both the aquatic and terrestrial environments as it is heated by the Sun’s energy. The rates of evaporation and precipitation depend on solar energy, as do the patterns of circulation of moisture in the air and currents in the ocean. Evaporation exceeds precipitation over the oceans, and this water vapor is transported by the wind over land, where it returns to the land through precipitation.”[2]

Not only does the atmosphere return what was on the surface back to the surface, but it reflects back into space that which might damage the flora and fauna the earth sustains, such as excessive radiant heat. In the 1990’s, collaborations between NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA), and the Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS) of Japan resulted in the International Solar-Terrestrial Physics (ISTP) Science Initiative. Polar, Wind and Geotail are a part of this initiative, combining resources and scientific communities to obtain coordinated, simultaneous investigations of the Sun-Earth space environment over an extended period of time. They have an excellent explanation of how the atmosphere returns solar heat to space.[3]

Besides ‘returning’ rain, heat and radio waves, the atmosphere protects us like a ceiling above our heads by filtering out deadly cosmic rays, powerful ultraviolet (UV) radiation from the Sun, and even meteorites on collision course with Earth.[4]

Pennsylvania State Public Broadcasting tells us:

“The sunlight that we can see represents one group of wavelengths, visible light. Other wavelengths emitted by the sun include x-rays and ultraviolet radiation. X-rays and some ultraviolet light waves are absorbed high in Earth’s atmosphere. They heat the thin layer of gas there to very high temperatures. Ultraviolet light waves are the rays that can cause sunburn. Most ultraviolet light waves are absorbed by a thicker layer of gas closer to Earth called the ozone layer. By soaking up the deadly ultraviolet and x-rays, the atmosphere acts as a protective shield around the planet. Like a giant thermal blanket, the atmosphere also keeps temperatures from getting too hot or too cold. In addition, the atmosphere also protects us from constant bombardment by meteoroids, bits of rock and dust that travel at high speeds throughout the solar system. The falling stars we see at night are not stars at all; they are actually meteoroids burning up in our atmosphere due to the extreme heating they undergo.
This image shows the average temperature profile through the Earth’s atmosphere. Temperatures in the thermosphere are very sensitive to solar activity and can vary from 500°C to 1500°C. Source: Windows to the Universe, (http://www.windows.ucar.edu), the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR). ©1995-1999, 2000 The Regents of the University of Michigan; ©2000-04 University Corporation for Atmospheric Research.

Rain, for one, is ‘returned’ to Earth by the clouds in the atmosphere. Explaining the hydrologic cycle, Encyclopedia Britannica writes:

“Water evaporates from both the aquatic and terrestrial environments as it is heated by the Sun’s energy. The rates of evaporation and precipitation depend on solar energy, as do the patterns of circulation of moisture in the air and currents in the ocean. Evaporation exceeds precipitation over the oceans, and this water vapor is transported by the wind over land, where it returns to the land through precipitation.”[2]

Not only does the atmosphere return what was on the surface back to the surface, but it reflects back into space that which might damage the flora and fauna the earth sustains, such as excessive radiant heat. In the 1990’s, collaborations between NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA), and the Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS) of Japan resulted in the International Solar-Terrestrial Physics (ISTP) Science Initiative. Polar, Wind and Geotail are a part of this initiative, combining resources and scientific communities to obtain coordinated, simultaneous investigations of the Sun-Earth space environment over an extended period of time. They have an excellent explanation of how the atmosphere returns solar heat to space.[3]

Besides ‘returning’ rain, heat and radio waves, the atmosphere protects us like a ceiling above our heads by filtering out deadly cosmic rays, powerful ultraviolet (UV) radiation from the Sun, and even meteorites on collision course with Earth.[4]

Pennsylvania State Public Broadcasting tells us:

“The sunlight that we can see represents one group of wavelengths, visible light. Other wavelengths emitted by the sun include x-rays and ultraviolet radiation. X-rays and some ultraviolet light waves are absorbed high in Earth’s atmosphere. They heat the thin layer of gas there to very high temperatures. Ultraviolet light waves are the rays that can cause sunburn. Most ultraviolet light waves are absorbed by a thicker layer of gas closer to Earth called the ozone layer. By soaking up the deadly ultraviolet and x-rays, the atmosphere acts as a protective shield around the planet. Like a giant thermal blanket, the atmosphere also keeps temperatures from getting too hot or too cold. In addition, the atmosphere also protects us from constant bombardment by meteoroids, bits of rock and dust that travel at high speeds throughout the solar system. The falling stars we see at night are not stars at all; they are actually meteoroids burning up in our atmosphere due to the extreme heating they undergo.
This image shows the average temperature profile through the Earth’s atmosphere. Temperatures in the thermosphere are very sensitive to solar activity and can vary from 500°C to 1500°C. Source: Windows to the Universe, (http://www.windows.ucar.edu), the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR). ©1995-1999, 2000 The Regents of the University of Michigan; ©2000-04 University Corporation for Atmospheric Research.

Rain, for one, is ‘returned’ to Earth by the clouds in the atmosphere. Explaining the hydrologic cycle, Encyclopedia Britannica writes:

“Water evaporates from both the aquatic and terrestrial environments as it is heated by the Sun’s energy. The rates of evaporation and precipitation depend on solar energy, as do the patterns of circulation of moisture in the air and currents in the ocean. Evaporation exceeds precipitation over the oceans, and this water vapor is transported by the wind over land, where it returns to the land through precipitation.”[2]

Not only does the atmosphere return what was on the surface back to the surface, but it reflects back into space that which might damage the flora and fauna the earth sustains, such as excessive radiant heat. In the 1990’s, collaborations between NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA), and the Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS) of Japan resulted in the International Solar-Terrestrial Physics (ISTP) Science Initiative. Polar, Wind and Geotail are a part of this initiative, combining resources and scientific communities to obtain coordinated, simultaneous investigations of the Sun-Earth space environment over an extended period of time. They have an excellent explanation of how the atmosphere returns solar heat to space.[3]

Besides ‘returning’ rain, heat and radio waves, the atmosphere protects us like a ceiling above our heads by filtering out deadly cosmic rays, powerful ultraviolet (UV) radiation from the Sun, and even meteorites on collision course with Earth.[4]

Pennsylvania State Public Broadcasting tells us:

“The sunlight that we can see represents one group of wavelengths, visible light. Other wavelengths emitted by the sun include x-rays and ultraviolet radiation. X-rays and some ultraviolet light waves are absorbed high in Earth’s atmosphere. They heat the thin layer of gas there to very high temperatures. Ultraviolet light waves are the rays that can cause sunburn. Most ultraviolet light waves are absorbed by a thicker layer of gas closer to Earth called the ozone layer. By soaking up the deadly ultraviolet and x-rays, the atmosphere acts as a protective shield around the planet. Like a giant thermal blanket, the atmosphere also keeps temperatures from getting too hot or too cold. In addition, the atmosphere also protects us from constant bombardment by meteoroids, bits of rock and dust that travel at high speeds throughout the solar system. The falling stars we see at night are not stars at all; they are actually meteoroids burning up in our atmosphere due to the extreme heating they undergo.
This image shows the average temperature profile through the Earth’s atmosphere. Temperatures in the thermosphere are very sensitive to solar activity and can vary from 500°C to 1500°C. Source: Windows to the Universe, (http://www.windows.ucar.edu), the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR). ©1995-1999, 2000 The Regents of the University of Michigan; ©2000-04 University Corporation for Atmospheric Research.

Rain, for one, is ‘returned’ to Earth by the clouds in the atmosphere. Explaining the hydrologic cycle, Encyclopedia Britannica writes:

“Water evaporates from both the aquatic and terrestrial environments as it is heated by the Sun’s energy. The rates of evaporation and precipitation depend on solar energy, as do the patterns of circulation of moisture in the air and currents in the ocean. Evaporation exceeds precipitation over the oceans, and this water vapor is transported by the wind over land, where it returns to the land through precipitation.”[2]

Not only does the atmosphere return what was on the surface back to the surface, but it reflects back into space that which might damage the flora and fauna the earth sustains, such as excessive radiant heat. In the 1990’s, collaborations between NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA), and the Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS) of Japan resulted in the International Solar-Terrestrial Physics (ISTP) Science Initiative. Polar, Wind and Geotail are a part of this initiative, combining resources and scientific communities to obtain coordinated, simultaneous investigations of the Sun-Earth space environment over an extended period of time. They have an excellent explanation of how the atmosphere returns solar heat to space.[3]

Besides ‘returning’ rain, heat and radio waves, the atmosphere protects us like a ceiling above our heads by filtering out deadly cosmic rays, powerful ultraviolet (UV) radiation from the Sun, and even meteorites on collision course with Earth.[4]

Pennsylvania State Public Broadcasting tells us:

“The sunlight that we can see represents one group of wavelengths, visible light. Other wavelengths emitted by the sun include x-rays and ultraviolet radiation. X-rays and some ultraviolet light waves are absorbed high in Earth’s atmosphere. They heat the thin layer of gas there to very high temperatures. Ultraviolet light waves are the rays that can cause sunburn. Most ultraviolet light waves are absorbed by a thicker layer of gas closer to Earth called the ozone layer. By soaking up the deadly ultraviolet and x-rays, the atmosphere acts as a protective shield around the planet. Like a giant thermal blanket, the atmosphere also keeps temperatures from getting too hot or too cold. In addition, the atmosphere also protects us from constant bombardment by meteoroids, bits of rock and dust that travel at high speeds throughout the solar system. The falling stars we see at night are not stars at all; they are actually meteoroids burning up in our atmosphere due to the extreme heating they undergo.

This image shows the average temperature profile through the Earth’s atmosphere. Temperatures in the thermosphere are very sensitive to solar activity and can vary from 500°C to 1500°C. Source: Windows to the Universe, (http://www.windows.ucar.edu), the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR). ©1995-1999, 2000 The Regents of the University of Michigan; ©2000-04 University Corporation for Atmospheric Research.

Rain, for one, is ‘returned’ to Earth by the clouds in the atmosphere. Explaining the hydrologic cycle, Encyclopedia Britannica writes:

“Water evaporates from both the aquatic and terrestrial environments as it is heated by the Sun’s energy. The rates of evaporation and precipitation depend on solar energy, as do the patterns of circulation of moisture in the air and currents in the ocean. Evaporation exceeds precipitation over the oceans, and this water vapor is transported by the wind over land, where it returns to the land through precipitation.”[2]

Not only does the atmosphere return what was on the surface back to the surface, but it reflects back into space that which might damage the flora and fauna the earth sustains, such as excessive radiant heat. In the 1990’s, collaborations between NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA), and the Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS) of Japan resulted in the International Solar-Terrestrial Physics (ISTP) Science Initiative. Polar, Wind and Geotail are a part of this initiative, combining resources and scientific communities to obtain coordinated, simultaneous investigations of the Sun-Earth space environment over an extended period of time. They have an excellent explanation of how the atmosphere returns solar heat to space.[3]

Besides ‘returning’ rain, heat and radio waves, the atmosphere protects us like a ceiling above our heads by filtering out deadly cosmic rays, powerful ultraviolet (UV) radiation from the Sun, and even meteorites on collision course with Earth.[4]

Pennsylvania State Public Broadcasting tells us:

“The sunlight that we can see represents one group of wavelengths, visible light. Other wavelengths emitted by the sun include x-rays and ultraviolet radiation. X-rays and some ultraviolet light waves are absorbed high in Earth’s atmosphere. They heat the thin layer of gas there to very high temperatures. Ultraviolet light waves are the rays that can cause sunburn. Most ultraviolet light waves are absorbed by a thicker layer of gas closer to Earth called the ozone layer. By soaking up the deadly ultraviolet and x-rays, the atmosphere acts as a protective shield around the planet. Like a giant thermal blanket, the atmosphere also keeps temperatures from getting too hot or too cold. In addition, the atmosphere also protects us from constant bombardment by meteoroids, bits of rock and dust that travel at high speeds throughout the solar system. The falling stars we see at night are not stars at all; they are actually meteoroids burning up in our atmosphere due to the extreme heating they undergo.

This image shows the average temperature profile through the Earth’s atmosphere. Temperatures in the thermosphere are very sensitive to solar activity and can vary from 500°C to 1500°C. Source: Windows to the Universe, (http://www.windows.ucar.edu), the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR). ©1995-1999, 2000 The Regents of the University of Michigan; ©2000-04 University Corporation for Atmospheric Research.

Rain, for one, is ‘returned’ to Earth by the clouds in the atmosphere. Explaining the hydrologic cycle, Encyclopedia Britannica writes:

“Water evaporates from both the aquatic and terrestrial environments as it is heated by the Sun’s energy. The rates of evaporation and precipitation depend on solar energy, as do the patterns of circulation of moisture in the air and currents in the ocean. Evaporation exceeds precipitation over the oceans, and this water vapor is transported by the wind over land, where it returns to the land through precipitation.”[2]

Not only does the atmosphere return what was on the surface back to the surface, but it reflects back into space that which might damage the flora and fauna the earth sustains, such as excessive radiant heat. In the 1990’s, collaborations between NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA), and the Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS) of Japan resulted in the International Solar-Terrestrial Physics (ISTP) Science Initiative. Polar, Wind and Geotail are a part of this initiative, combining resources and scientific communities to obtain coordinated, simultaneous investigations of the Sun-Earth space environment over an extended period of time. They have an excellent explanation of how the atmosphere returns solar heat to space.[3]

Besides ‘returning’ rain, heat and radio waves, the atmosphere protects us like a ceiling above our heads by filtering out deadly cosmic rays, powerful ultraviolet (UV) radiation from the Sun, and even meteorites on collision course with Earth.[4]

Pennsylvania State Public Broadcasting tells us:

“The sunlight that we can see represents one group of wavelengths, visible light. Other wavelengths emitted by the sun include x-rays and ultraviolet radiation. X-rays and some ultraviolet light waves are absorbed high in Earth’s atmosphere. They heat the thin layer of gas there to very high temperatures. Ultraviolet light waves are the rays that can cause sunburn. Most ultraviolet light waves are absorbed by a thicker layer of gas closer to Earth called the ozone layer. travel agent By soaking up the deadly ultraviolet and x-rays, the atmosphere acts as a protective shield around the planet. Like a giant thermal blanket, the atmosphere also keeps temperatures from getting too hot or too cold. In addition, the atmosphere also protects us from constant bombardment by meteoroids, bits of rock and dust that travel at high speeds throughout the solar system. The falling stars we see at night are not stars at all; they are actually meteoroids burning up in our atmosphere due to the extreme heating they undergo.

Thanks

Admin of agenda software

 

KUNINO

4:12 PM ET

December 14, 2011

Nixon's great betrayal of the US

The former president's arrival in China was a surprise mainly because before them, he has been one of the lead singers in the conservative chorus that the (Truman) State Department had "lost" China -- an evident impossibility -- and all Communists were so evil that nobody could deal with them in any way at all. This campaign made it impossible for the US to have sensible relations with the world's most populous state because anybody who suggested that would be a sensible idea was hounded as a secret commie. All this was the US being twisted round in support of a dispossessed Chinese warlord, Chiang Kai-Shek.

Hitler's pact with the Soviet Union did not unify both nations, although Mr Walt suggests otherwise. It gave them a meal break, to pursue eating up of warring with other, smaller states.

As to the idea of taking war off the table in dealing with Iran, this seems to have happened in silence already. Putting it on the table, starting with that vile "axis of evil" speech, never seems to have done a single thing for the United States (or to North Korea), but strengthened the hand of religious extremists in Iran able to present those threats as evidence that if there's an axis of evil, it runs right through Washington.

Of Mr Walt's other four points, we see that two are in the hands of people living in the former Palestine, and two require iitiatives from China -- which in daily life has been a great and good friend of the United States. So of the five potential game-changers here, the only one Mr Walt seems to think America can achieve is just shutting up about Iran. Is that what losing sway in the world looks like?

 

KUNINO

1:04 PM ET

December 15, 2011

Probably not a marine, probably not a sniper

Assuming the mask of an American military hero, the person signing as USMARINESNIPER while claiming to understand all issues connected with disagreements between Israel and the current Palestinians, has no idea at all of what "the former Palestine" means. It's a statement of basic fact, neither for nor against either side in the current conflict there.

Following World War I, from 1920 to 1948, the British government administered the former Palestine after the Ottoman empire had lost control over it. The British control was formalized in 1922 by the League of Nations, and recognized after WWII by the United Nations organization.

The loyalties of the person self-identified as USMARINESNIPER mostly bear this interesting stamp: she or he leaps constantly to the defense of modern Israel, and seldom or never to the defense of America. Probably not a marine, probably not a sniper, quite likely not an American. And with an infantile belief that (s)he defeats people he or she scorns by making ignorant guesses about the sizes of their penises.

 

KMANCANADA

4:30 AM ET

December 18, 2011

Bravo @Kunino

Someone pretty accurately dissected the so-called 'USMARINESNIPER'. With his (her?) regurgitations of the Israeli Hasbara narrative, and, as Kunino points out, his never defending any of America's interests, he betrays the fact that he's not American.

 

TRDERT

5:23 PM ET

December 14, 2011

trdert

1) legalize and tax recreational marijuana in the US (using revenues for enforcement of existing laws regarding 'harder' drugs), 2) ban the sale of assault weapons in the US.

Together these would constitute a boon for Mexican domestic security and also for American border security.

 

CHISWICKINTERNATIONAL

5:39 PM ET

December 14, 2011

How about the break-up of the former Soviet Union?

Interesting article that really got me thinking about game-changing decisions politicians made. Being a European, I think that the dissolution of the former Soviet Bloc and the opening of of Eastern European countries has been one of the biggest game changers. It's lead to a larger and slightly different in character European Union and has changed the business landscape in Europe. Much of Western Europe's IT and in particular software development is now outsourced to Eastern Europe, where IT skills are booming, compared to the decline we are seeing in them in Western Europe. In fact Poland hasn't really seen a recession, while we have all been struggling, many of its companies are experiencing massive growth.It's strange to think that if Gorbachev and Reagan hadn't had the personal chemistry, Europe could well be such a different place.

 

MARTY24

5:43 PM ET

December 14, 2011

Other suggestions

1. Muslims acknowledge that they are not superior beings entitled to kill, enslave, or use sexually any infidel that happens to come under their control.

2. IR "Realists" start acknowledging reality rather than seeing the world through an ideological prism. No country actually behaves the way "realists" insist they do, so why not drop the pretense and start dealing wiith what governments actually do?

3. People on the Left acknowledge that Obama is not a great thinker, but really closer to Chance, the President, as in the movie "Being There."

4. Revenues from writing books that make money by pandering to the beliefs of racist societies, like much of Walt's work, go to covering the additional costs they impose on the societies that are under attack. With a little luck, this will help dry up the flow of nonsense passing as wisdom.

 

84BOLUDO

7:02 PM ET

December 14, 2011

lol

Help Us
5bucks

 

BILEJONES

7:22 PM ET

December 14, 2011

Iran

"All options are on the table." is of course a lie.
The option of ceasing the endless threats and aggression was never considered.

 

FELINE74

2:46 AM ET

December 15, 2011

You asked for ideas.

Someone suggested on Slate's Fray, once, that China could allow the KMT to return to the mainland and compete for power with the Communists in elections. In return, the Communists would be allowed to compete in Taiwan's elections. It would, over time, constitute a loss of their monopoly, but it would be a powerful boost to the Taiwan party that believes in reunion with the mainland. Potentially the fastest road to reunion that doesn't involve a war.

 

SCOTT83

3:47 AM ET

December 15, 2011

More Delusions from the Self-Styled Realist

The "Israel Accepts the Arab League Peace Plan" section just shows how delusional Walt is.

When the plan was floated, Mubarak was running Egypt, Qaddafi was running Libya, Tunisia by Ben Ali, etc... etc...

Not to mention Syria and Assad (who will likely be ousted within weeks).

How much would a document signed by Mubarak, Qaddafi, Assad, etc.. be worth to Israel today?

Not much, I suspect.

Walt blames the unwillingness of the US and Israel to enter into agreements with unstable dictators on "unimaginative" foreign policy.

Yes, quite true.

Perhaps Walt do well to promote a less less "imaginative" foreign policy then the one he is currently peddling.

Regards,
Scott

 

XINGLONGNITE

11:47 AM ET

December 15, 2011

making nice with iran

- "making nice with Iran" seems a reasonable game-changer, and I suspect the momentum will gather pace as the 2014 withdrawal from Afghanistan gets closer. Pakistan is the key question whether such a game-changer actually serves US geopolitical interests better than her competitors, and I suspect there is no easy answer, unless David Petraeus could engineer one from CIA. Judging from the strategic aftermath of Mohmand incident, "making nice with Iran" seems a lesser evil than the alternatives. Eurasia flashpoint, from US vantage point, seems better Pakistan than Iran.
Such a move would not compromise the security of the Israelis, instead, it would weaken Iran's strategic motivation to contain Israel. An Iranian nuclear bomb is practically fait accompli, but that doesn't mean it could or would use it against anyone in the event. On the other hand, staying on the side of those aristocratic middle eastern states is not a sustainable position anyway.
Encirclement of Pakistan would of course make China rethink its position, but one has to realize China already has a huge stake in central asia, and it's not that far away from Iran's border by land. Of course unlocking Iranian energy would be the game-changer for world market landscape, and particularly disruptive to Russia's geopolitic design.
Multilateral compromise by China in the issue of South China Sea is a dumb idea. China would never agree to it. The South China Sea may be a flashpoint, but it's a flashpoint too far from the US, and too close to China. There is no reason to believe China's hypergrowth would slow down substantially any time soon --- 7% per annum over the coming decade coupled with on-again off-again Renminbi appreciation vs Dollar would probably make China" GDP much larger than that of the US by 2020 in nominal term. Therefore it's reasonable to assume that China, like the US, needs enemies to focus its military modernization. Liberation by force of Taiwan would cease to be a rallying cry for China's sake as early as right after the next Taiwanese presidential election in 2012. Sovereignty of the South China Sea and the protection of China's maritime line of communication seem the logical next choice.
The US could never take the initiative in this one no matter how hard she tries. In the short term Obama and Clinton seemed to have gained the upper hand, the situation would soon change since there is simply no way they could hold back China's economic juggernaught --- because that means China will have the means to rapidly and proportionally push the envelope of its frontier of defense. In 10 years' time frame one must think beyond the DF21Ds and J-20s.
One has to remember that time is not on our side in this one.

 

AR

4:37 AM ET

December 17, 2011

Erdogan and the Turkish

Erdogan and the Turkish government recognize the Armenian Genocide. Now that would be a game-changer!

 

KMANCANADA

4:33 AM ET

December 18, 2011

Game-changer: Getting behind the UN

The US (or another permanent member of the UNSC) offering to drop the Veto provision from all so-called permanent members.

At the time of its inception, veto power was given to the five states which, at the time, had nuclear weapons. Today, more countries have nuclear weapons so that exception is an anachronism.

[Which seeds a separate discussion on what influence the disproportionate influence of nuclear countries encouraged other nations to seek "the bomb"]

 

JOHANMALMO

7:36 AM ET

December 21, 2011

 

MATTW0699

9:42 AM ET

December 19, 2011

You Remind Me of Economists

'In any case, the greater danger today is not some sort of great power nuclear war, but rather that a terrorist group will one day get a hold of a nuclear bomb or sufficient weapons-grade material to make a crude bomb of their own.'

Important economists got together in a room shortly after World War II and decided how the world worked. And that is what they have been teaching ever since. The only problem is that their view is wrong. We know it is wrong because of the economic mess we are in today. Economists don't really understand why it happened, and how to get out.

Apparently, you were in the room with geopolitical experts who decided how the world works. Except it ain't so.

You decided that since we haven't had a major world war since World War II, then there is little risk of it happening. Except it ain't so.

Wars and attacks within wars precisely (And I mean stunningly precise) follow the power distribution. A Log graph (size vs frequency) of wars and attacks within wars follows a precise straight line.

Who cares?

The implication of this is that suppressing smaller wars only means bigger ones will come instead. Mathematically, you should really be worried about a big nuclear war coming.

The longer you go without a crash means that when one comes it will be bigger. It was no accident that World War II followed the Great Depression.

One final point. The signs of a major war are present today. You just have to pay attention.

 

YARINSIZ

12:10 AM ET

January 10, 2012

Article 1 of the Charter. The

Article 1 of the Charter. The religious arguments leaves no room for a Jewish state in the Middle East. The final goal of Hamas is that the flag of Allah will fly over every inch of Palestine". Furthermore: "There is no other solution to the Palestinian problem than seslichat Jihad (Holy war). The initiatives, proposals and international conferences is nothing but a waste of time, a lunatic undertaking.

 

DOMINOES

2:58 AM ET

January 10, 2012

hypothetical

These are all 5 things that will most likely not happen, so lets not get too caught up in that right now, lets focus on what is at hand and how we can right this ship that seems to be sinking quickly. get rid of gingivitis, is what we should be focusing on instead of reading about what might be or what will never happen. Lets focus up now FP and move forward into the future, http://www.fsbizcollect.com/florida-collection-agency.php>florida collection agency

 

CHANGS

12:22 PM ET

January 11, 2012

World Peace Would Be Nice But At What Price?

Everybody is for World Peace and negotiations as long as it is the other side that caves in during negations.

The World would be at peace today if Hitler had won his war but would the price paid to achieve that world peace be worth the cost to the people of the world?

Dictators, whether the religious dictators in countries like Iran, or the secular dictators of countries such as China and North Korea, will never give up any of their powers to achieve world peace. So if you wish peace with them you must be willing to surrender your beliefs, your freedom and your country to them to achieve this world peace.

Dictators want total control of the people and property withing their reign. They wish to extend their reign to the point where they have total control over the people and the property of the word. Until you are willing to cede that total control to them peace is not possible with them.

Chang S