Downward Spiral

Europe's crisis is morphing again -- for the third time in only 12 months -- and the implications for the global economy are even more complex, unsettling, and troubling.

BY MOHAMED EL-ERIAN | DECEMBER 15, 2011

Europe entered the year with an acute emergency in the periphery of the eurozone, the European Union's elite 17-member club that shares a common currency. Misdiagnoses and inadequate policy responses allowed the contamination to travel sequentially from the outer reaches of the zone (Greece, Ireland, and Portugal) toward its inner core.

In this first of three morphings in 2011, Italy and Spain were disrupted as interest rates soared, turning liquidity concerns into solvency ones. France was then impacted, with its AAA rating threatened by its exposure to the neighborhood's problems. Then Germany, Europe's strongest economy and the one that everyone looks to for a solution, had to contend with the embarrassing failure of a highly visible government debt auction.

A sovereign debt crisis is bad news for anyone with large holdings of government bonds. As European banks are the largest such holders, they quickly found themselves losing the confidence that is so central to the normal functioning of any financial system.

Credit lines were cut, making too many banks heavily dependent on European Central Bank financing for raising the liquidity they need for daily operations. Equity prices collapsed as investors worried about bank profitability, thereby limiting the scope for injections of new capital. To make things worse, some depositors got nervous.

This series of events led to the second 2011 morphing of the European crisis. Having entered the year on the receiving end of the sovereign debt crisis, banks evolved into becoming a stand-alone source of disruptions -- most acutely in the periphery, but also in some core countries. Suddenly, banks were in the grips of the threatening trio of liquidity strains, capital inadequacy, and concern about asset quality.

The alarm bells in European capitals rang even louder, prompting a subtle change in the policy emphasis. It was no longer just about saving the eurozone's periphery. It became ultra-important, to use French President Nicolas Sarkozy's words, to "refound" Europe.

As the crisis got bigger, Germany and France decided to dispense with the niceties of collective European deliberations and essentially specified the steps needed to strengthen the EU's fiscal and institutional core. These measures found support, but not unanimous agreement.

PHILIPPE HUGUEN/AFP/Getty Images

 SUBJECTS: ECONOMICS, EUROPE
 

Mohamed El-Erian is CEO and co-chief investment officer of investment management firm Pimco and author of When Markets Collide.

TORO

8:33 PM ET

December 15, 2011

Funny

Was just reading about your partner Bill Gross the other day...

I find it curious you have, sort of, alluded to the fact that Euro leaders need to "get their act together" without really explicating what that getting together entails.

ECB print is the first thing that comes to mind. Is this what you hope for?

And if so, I think you need to explain why it would actually solve anything as opposed to compounding problems.

 

FORLORNEHOPE

7:47 AM ET

December 16, 2011

France

The problem with the smaller Eurozone, the least worst option, is that initially France will insist on taking part. However the long term trends in France and Germany, while not as divergent as between Germany and Greece, make this an unstable union. The likely effect is that a smaller union that could work if restricted to Germany, the Netherlands and Austria, will run on the rocks in another five to ten years when France brings the house tumbling down.

Incidentally, this has all been tried before. The Latin Monetary Union was founded in the late nineteenth century and finally fizzled out in the 1920s for much the same reasons as the Euro.

 

YAWKISMMALLS

9:08 AM ET

December 16, 2011

Euro

I'm not an expert but I would bet that the downward trend of the euro is a very short term issue. I think that most of us that keep up with this stuff know that the big plan is for the euro to be the world currency. So I think it will all work itself out in a short time. The Battlefield 3 Strategy Guide has all the scoop on how the world will convert to the euro in the near future. It will just take a bit longer now.

 

DRHOTDOG

10:19 AM ET

December 16, 2011

Downward Spiral

I think this article is really about the PIMCO Total Return Fund.

PIMCO should have gone bankrupt as the largest holders of Fannie and Freddie bonds, but they lobbied the govt to put the firms into conservatorship.

El Erian had a good year at Harvard in 2007 but the fund is on the verge of insolvency because of people he hired and bets he made.

Why anybody listens to Bill Gross and Mohammed is beyond me.

 

TRUTHFUL

9:21 PM ET

December 16, 2011

EU

Actually, if one focuses on EU, the comparison with say US is not really relevant. US is a single market with fairly strong federal government. California may have a debt problem, but that would not bring down the federal government: US can print $ to repay. Moreover, New Yorkers can not refuse to pay taxes to repay California's debt. Politically, there is very little free-rider or coordination problem as compared with EU. EU is politically underdeveloped. It lacks institutions and rules to support the single market. So, Germany is an economic powerhouse, but a political midget within EU. It has to wrestle with the remaining 26 members whose interests may very well diverge. Indeed, Germany and Greece are worlds apart but share the same currency. Of course, Germany would be loath to have any one else dictate the monetary policy so basically, for Greeks the only way to have more Euro is to earn it by trade surplus. Germans are also the most productive and highest saving rate in the zone, so there is not much Greeks can sell them. That leaves the Greek government debt as the only way to get the euro to the Greeks. This is a fundamental paradox and unless it is reversed it is impossible for the monetary union to function. Otherwise, Greeks would have to deflate with no end in sight to get the euro from Germans to repay Germans.

 

GJS

1:21 AM ET

December 17, 2011

Represented by idiots, liars & thieves

When the masses finally work out what lies ahead of them because of the ineptitude & greed of their so called elected representatives (Politicians) & Bankers they will want blood & won't believe they were so stupid to believe the utter crap they are being told. Unfortunately things WILL decline more rapidly than ever in the new year, it truly is time you all pulled your heads out of the sand & try to prepare.
I do hope though some miracle may happen for you but things have been abused far too long & neglected for normal economics can begin to help.

 

GJS

1:21 AM ET

December 17, 2011

Represented by idiots, liars & thieves

When the masses finally work out what lies ahead of them because of the ineptitude & greed of their so called elected representatives (Politicians) & Bankers they will want blood & won't believe they were so stupid to believe the utter crap they are being told. Unfortunately things WILL decline more rapidly than ever in the new year, it truly is time you all pulled your heads out of the sand & try to prepare.
I do hope though some miracle may happen for you but things have been abused far too long & neglected for normal economics can begin to help.

 

DONKISSOTES

8:15 AM ET

December 17, 2011

how about euro

I have not seen the positive impact of the common European currency, the euro in a crisis situation like this.

 

SPOCK_RHP

9:50 PM ET

December 18, 2011

competitiveness rules

the external cost of productivity adjusted labour in each country continues to drive their economy. In countries where this competitiveness is high [and thus relative cost per productivity adjusted hour low] there are plenty of jobs and the economy is expanding. The converse is also true.

The functional issue with the Greek economy, or any other that you'd care to name, is that there is insufficient demand for their labour because costs are too high.

It follows that the prime policy prescription must be to reduce the external cost of labour [or vastly increase productivity]. Each and every government policy must be examined for its effect of such costs and the usefulness of severe reforms at least discussed.

Independent nations [Iceland, America, Britain] enjoy the ability to do this by devaluing their currency. Euro nations using the common currency do not. While this may seem to provide an advantage to the currency independent nations, it also gives them another way to put off the day of truth.

Reducing the external cost of Greek, Italian, English, American, Spanish, Irish, or Portuguese labour might require some or all of the following policies: elimination of taxes on employment, reduction or abandonment of publicly funded retirement schemes, elimination of early retirements, elimination of restrictive work rules, elimination of employer funded health and retirement benefits, elimination of taxes on capital [to encourage workers to save as much as possible], shifting disability and unemployment payments to work subsidies [no work, no subsidy], elimination of minimum wage laws, elimination of overtime pay laws, etc.

good luck and God Speed -- it seems we're all likely to need it.

 

JOROLOK8765

2:46 PM ET

December 19, 2011

A sovereign debt crisis is

A sovereign debt crisis is bad news for anyone with large holdings of government bonds.

Debt is simply bad for everybody here folks, I would say that people shouldnt borrow money cause it may ruin lives.

 

BRUNAMASSAGEM

10:12 AM ET

December 22, 2011

Liars & thieves

Unfortunately things WILL decline more rapidly than ever in the new year, it truly is time you all pulled your heads out of the sand & try to prepare.
I do hope though some miracle may happen for you but things have been abused far too long & neglected for normal economics can begin to help.
Massagista

 

CHRIS PRICE

6:25 PM ET

December 23, 2011

Chubbanomics

Chubbanomics

 

YARINSIZ

12:51 PM ET

January 10, 2012

The problem with the smaller

The problem with the smaller Eurozone, the least worst option, is that initially France will insist on taking part. However the long term trends in France and seslichat Germany, while not as divergent as between Germany and Greece, make this an unstable union. The likely effect is that a smaller union that could work if restricted to Germany, the Netherlands and Austria, will run on the rocks in another five to ten years when France brings the house tumbling down.

 

DOMINOES

10:57 PM ET

January 13, 2012

3rd times a charm

This might be the end for the EU and also the end for any bit of recovery that the economy has made. This is a horror story in all regards and the EU is a broken system all around. How can a country as wealthy as Germany be on the same currency as a country as broke as a Greece. This is the sad truth of the EU, it seemed like a good idea in theory but the world is too complex for theorists and politicians to understand or even predict austin apartments The EU needs to fade away and not cause another global financial crisis as we are just trying to get out of the last one get rid of gas there is so many more important things to focus on in this world and it is a shame that this one always comes up and steals the spot light.