Newt Skywalker and the Moon Mirror

A guide to the Republican front-runner's far-out, futurist vision of warfare.

BY SHARON WEINBERGER | DECEMBER 15, 2011

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, the surging candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, has been simultaneously lauded for his devotion to technological innovation, and ridiculed for his warnings about futuristic weapons.

Gingrich, who has dabbled in science fiction and cited both futurist Alvin Toffler and the concept of "psychohistory" in Isaac Asimov's Foundation novels as intellectual inspirations, has long been dubbed "Newt Skywalker" thanks to his vision of future warfare that blends fact and fantasy. This streak of futurism is, by his own admission, rooted in a political and philosophical belief about technology and power. ''I would rather rely on engineers than diplomats for security,'' Gingrich told Aviation Week & Space Technology magazine in 1994, in reference to his support for missile defense.

Not all his futurism is a bad thing. Many of Gingrich's early ideas, such as encouraging the Pentagon to fund bureaucratically stripped-down "Skunk Works"–type innovation are laudable.

Sometimes his predictions have even panned out, sort of. Some 25 years ago, Gingrich promised that "tourism in space is coming." This week's announcement of the Burt Rutan and Paul Allen plan to build a massive commercial space plane is a reminder that such a future, while not yet here, is likely on the horizon. (though it appears that the "Hiltons and Marriotts of the solar system" that Gingrich also predicted are not yet in those companies' business development plans).

When it comes to predicting the future of warfare, the devil is usually in the details. Gingrich in 1995 warned of a growing "Islamic totalitarian terrorism." But he was worried about Iran, not terrorists setting up camp in Afghanistan. He also, in that same speech, worried about another attack on the World Trade Center, but his focus wasn't box cutters and commercial aircraft, but a nuclear weapon.

When it comes to futuristic weapons, Gingrich's record is mixed. Here are a few of his more notable predictions:

POOL/AFP/Getty Images; modernsurvivalonline.com; newlaunches.com; Mai/Mai/Time Life Pictures/Getty Images; LUIS ROBAYO/AFP/Getty Images; Julian Finney/Getty Images

 

Sharon Weinberger is a national security writer based in Washington, D.C.

MARK GOLDES

2:52 PM ET

December 15, 2011

A LITTLE RECOGNIZED NUCLEAR NIGHTMARE FROM A SOLAR FLARE

While I am not a supporter of Newt Gingrich, bringing public attention to the possibility of an EMP attack or a solar megastorm may help save many millions of lives.

See the Aesop Institute website to understand that statement.

Multiple meltdowns of nuclear plants are a very real potential threat from the sun.

A wise program to prevent the worst can sharply boost the economy and may change the political landscape.

 

SNOWWWIZARD

5:21 PM ET

December 15, 2011

Depth of Thought and Experience

and another way to consider this article on Newt is that NO other candidate for the Presidency has as numerous, momentous and CORRECT predictions ergo they reside in his shadow

 

MIKE CORNELISON

6:03 PM ET

December 15, 2011

Nailed it

The writer is so fixated on trying to highlight predictions he got wrong, she's completely oblivious to how many times he did indeed foresee the future, far more than any other candidate. He's the only guy around who's even willing to make bold and far out predictions, and the author is more surprised about the ones he got wrong than the ones he got right? Seriously?

 

PROFESSORB

5:41 PM ET

December 15, 2011

Hit Piece? Yes

The article smacks of pure bias and a unjournalistic attempt to portray Newt as a nut not a serious thinker and may I remind Sharon, a credintialed professor. Currently Newt is not running on any of these ideas and they are very dated. It does show that he is very forward thinking and the fact that he mentioned Iran and not Afganistan is not laughable given the fact that A) Everyone in the national defense aparatus has been focusing on Iran and not Afganistan, nobody really paid it any attention until 9-11, B) Iran is a much, much more dangerous foe and we should have gone to war with them several years ago. Further the EMP weapon is a viable threat to the US given that we are so increadibly dependent on technology that can be wipped out in a single hit, indeed reports are that Iran is developing such a weapon and was conducting or attempting to conduct EMP missile tests in the Gulf of Mexico. Perhaps it would be better of Mrs. Weinberger's time to chase down those leads rather than try to run down and over Newt.

 

MIKE CORNELISON

5:57 PM ET

December 15, 2011

Oh so snarky

I cannot believe how snarky and unprofessional the tone is from Sharon Weinberger here. Even people who are dubbed as "futurists" are wrong in their predictions more often than not. Gingrich looks much more like a visionary in his predictions than the goofball the author's mocking tone suggests.

 

84BOLUDO

6:50 PM ET

December 15, 2011

lol

Take a Look Around5bucks

 

DSPGUY

6:58 PM ET

December 15, 2011

Not so Fictional...

You should brush up on you facts before you knock Newt. All of the systems that you mock are have or do exist. You are probably too young to remember Project Echo. Sandia labs uses their terrestrial lasers to vaporise space junk in their spare time. EMP was proven to be true when after the first h-bomb test the newly installed digital phone switch was knocked off line - yes, Sharon EMP is real. By the way smart phones in the field were a reality in 2009( not 2010) although they were satellite phones, so Newt beat that one by a year. You should actually research a subject before you actually start to write about it( as should your coffee shop 'scientists'). If we had paid attention to Newt in the 90's to the threat of radical Islam we could have saved thousands of lives world-wide.

 

WEST HOUSTON

8:07 PM ET

December 15, 2011

Comments

Ms. Weinberger should do a bit more research before writing on a subject in which she is decidedly, no expert. I will elaborate.

Quoting:
“...his vision of future warfare that blends fact and fantasy”

Commenting:
Fantasy, no. Science fiction. That you don’t know the difference is quite obvious.

Quoting:
(on space tourism)... such a future, while not yet here, is likely on the horizon. (though it appears that the "Hiltons and Marriotts of the solar system" that Gingrich also predicted are not yet in those companies' business development plans).

Commenting:
Space tourism is in fact years old and the first “Hilton” of space was the ISS. A hotelier named Bigelow is developing private habitats and has two prototypes already in orbit. That IS his business development plan.

Quoting:
“...worried about Iran, not terrorists setting up camp in Afghanistan. He also, in that same speech, worried about another attack on the World Trade Center, but his focus wasn't box cutters and commercial aircraft, but a nuclear weapon.”

Commenting:
Nuclear terrorism is indeed on the near term horizon and Newt was quite right to worry about Iran.

Quoting:
“A number of scientists have questioned whether an EMP bomb would have the massive effects claimed by Gingrich and others.”

Commenting:
This is not just some theory. Nuclear explosions DID have that effect. Upper atmosphere blasts (before the test ban treaty) knocked out power and communications over wide areas, despite locations chosen to minimize effects on populated areas. Solar outbursts are a lesser threat.

More comments:
Your ridicule of science fiction is misplaced – again you confuse it with fantasy. Let’s take the old Star Trek for example. The audience found these unlikely: A handheld device that contacts people and spaceships at great distances (communicator)? A compact computer that senses and records sound, video and environmental data (tricorder)? A portable device that can stun or kill (Phaser)?
The first two, I have in one device in my pocket. It is smaller than Kirk’s communicator was. The second is carried by police (although the “kill” part is quite old)..

 

WEST HOUSTON

8:36 PM ET

December 15, 2011

Now I think about it...

Now that I think on it, the "Stun" setting on the phaser is also quite old. We called it "nightstick";-)

 

LUCASJONES

8:08 PM ET

December 15, 2011

More jobs?

Hey, futuristic weapons means more jobs right

 

WEST HOUSTON

10:40 PM ET

December 15, 2011

spam

Moderator, a user called A885300 is to say the least quoting me, to say more, SPAMMING on my content, to say the most, plagiarism.
Please stop them. Thanks very much!

 

WEST HOUSTON

10:40 PM ET

December 15, 2011

spam

Moderator, a user called A885300 is to say the least quoting me, to say more, SPAMMING on my content, to say the most, plagiarism.
Please stop them. Thanks very much!

 

DAVID FROM SAN DIEGO

8:39 PM ET

December 15, 2011

EVEN CRAZIER IDEAS

Here are some ideas that are WAY crazier than any of those described in the article:

(a) legalizing "free trade" with low-wage countries, so all our manufacturing jobs would be exported to low-wage countries;

(b) failing to enforce our immigration laws so millions of poor people from a country with historical claims on our territory can come in and sign up for welfare, take service jobs from Americans, and depress wages generally;

(c) borrow more and more money to get out of debt;

(d) spend more and more money to get out of debt.

 

HMADDEN

12:02 PM ET

December 16, 2011

Newt, Weinberger, and the future

Sharon Weinberger has demonstrated the limitations of a liberal arts education. LA majors often end up in journalism or politics or teaching. They like to believe that they understand the forces shaping the future. But in that regard, they are like historians trying to understand the ancient Egyptian civilization without any knowledge or understanding of the religion of that culture. It was the driving force behind it. Likewise, Ms. Weinberger doesn't understand the primary driving force in our own culture, technology. I am a retired engineer. I worked on military high energy laser systems back in the 1970's, and on the space program in the 80's. Newt's vision of the future of military technology is actually quite conservative. And as far as her disparaging remarks about science fiction are concerned, science fiction has long been recognized as being an innoculation against future shock. As Arthur C. Clarke said, "Magic is any technology you don't understand". The odds are, to Ms. Weinberger, electric lights constitute magic (by Clarke's definition), albeit familiar magic that she takes for granted. Newt, at least, is trying to look ahead.

 

WEST HOUSTON

6:43 PM ET

December 16, 2011

Clarke

Good comments. I looked up Clarke's third law for the exact quote, which you paraphrased well:

"Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic."
Arthur C. Clarke, "Profiles of The Future", 1961 (Clarke's third law)
English physicist & science fiction author (1917 - 2008)

My personal favorite was the first law:
"When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong."

 

VOXOCEANUS

12:38 PM ET

December 16, 2011

New production . . .

Newt Gongrich is a new production of corporate greed . . . viva la democracy :)

 

EUGNID

11:43 PM ET

December 17, 2011

Newt's got a reson, he's not crazy!

Don't be too hard on Newt, according to one press story he's got some old shyster who made his billions in the gaming industry who's that kind of Zionist-- the kind who wants Israel to exist so he can vacation there but never move there because the taxes are too high and it's not safe-- who offered him $20 million for his campaign if he promises that as President he'll finish the Iraq-->Iran War Bush had promised Israel. With all his mass-mailing schemes Newt never saw so much money and for that much money Newt would not only say that the Palestinians are an "imaginary" people but he'd also say that about the whole of Europe so he could spend Christmas loose in Tifanny's to take whatever he can hold. Republicans have two ways to go: Mr. President or mass-mailing shysters.

 

BLUE13326

2:47 AM ET

December 18, 2011

It'd be kinda nice to have a

It'd be kinda nice to have a president who actually had ideas that hadn't been proven wrong in the 70s like our current one.

 

COWBOY69

8:56 PM ET

January 4, 2012

he might still be a good

he might still be a good option

motorcycle parts - articles

 

YARINSIZ

12:53 PM ET

January 10, 2012

The article smacks of pure

The article smacks of pure bias and a unjournalistic attempt to portray Newt as a nut not a serious thinker and may I remind Sharon, a credintialed professor. Currently Newt is not running on any of these ideas and they are very dated. seslichat It does show that he is very forward thinking and the fact that he mentioned Iran and not Afganistan is not laughable given the fact that A) Everyone in the national defense aparatus has been focusing on Iran and not Afganistan, nobody really paid it any attention until 9-11, B) Iran is a much, much more dangerous foe and we should have gone to war with them several years ago

 

DOMINOES

9:37 PM ET

January 13, 2012

stop the war machine

This needs to stop, or at least slow down. We need a strong military, but the way things are going we will just keep spending and lose focus of what really matters and that is our home soil. We need to get things squared up at home and focus on education. There is so much going on at home that does not get any attention and slips to the wayside and gets neglected. It is time we actually focus on what matters and it is not money or power, these things are not important austintxapartments.net they are glamorized and really lead us in a downward spiral which we are currently in. I hope we can pull out of it before it is too late airambulancex.com but it looks like we are too late.