The Turkish Roundabout

Why Turkey is the biggest winner of 2011 -- and will soon be a significant power.

BY ASHRAF GHANI | DECEMBER 27, 2011

As the eurozone experiences the worst crisis in its history, at least one country -- Turkey -- is happily on the outside looking in. Its economy has tripled since Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan took office, and his government has articulated a vision to become the world's 10th largest economy by 2023 -- the 100th anniversary of the Turkish republic. The cornerstone to Turkey's success story is the government's strong leadership, which, in stark contrast to European leaders, is committed to pursuing reform and focused on seizing the opportunities inherent in the current crisis.

Three factors make it likely that Turkey will manage the risks of the current period and continue to fulfill its potential. First, it has largely resolved its crisis of identity. Instead of framing identity in terms of opposition between European or Middle Eastern, religious or secular, Eastern or Western, Turkey now is framing its advantages in terms of partnership: Muslim and secular, Eastern and Western, regional and global. In the process, Turkey has fashioned a narrative that utilizes all facets of its rich culture, history, and location in the pursuit of its vision of becoming a global player. Human security and rule of law have become central motifs in this narrative.

Second, the Turkish government has acquired the confidence to make difficult political decisions. Erdogan's administration has embarked on both fiscal and monetary reforms while also undertaking a difficult revision of the constitution through an intensive public process.

Much of the credit for this sense of confidence belongs to the impressive governing team that Erdogan has assembled, which has overcome the classic problem of a strong leader surrounded by weak followers, and deserves its fair share of the credit for this sense of confidence: Ali  Babacan, the deputy prime miniter; Egmen Bagis, minister of EU affairs and chief negotiator; Ahmet Davutoglu, minister of foreign affairs; and Mehmet Simsek, minister of finance articulate a shared outlook to Turkey's challenges and adhere to a common approach to the policies that need to be implemented.

Erdogan's Justice and Development Party also boasts deep ties to many Turkish citizens. It provides the vehicle for a shared narrative, the apparatus for mobilizing constituencies, and a channel for upward mobility of the younger generation.

Third, the government has entered into an organic partnership with the private sector, ushering a profound change in the formation and functioning of the economic sphere. In the past, the Turkish business elite depended on government patronage and protection. Turkey's closed economy was a crisis-prone system, where inflation periodically wiped savings and inflicted a huge toll on the poor.

ADEM ALTAN/AFP/Getty Images

 

Ashraf Ghani is a former finance minister of Afghanistan, and author of Fixing Failed States. He is a distinguished fellow of the Atlantic Council and chairman of the Institute for State Effectiveness.

JACK HAROUTUN

9:02 PM ET

December 27, 2011

Lingering Issues

Turkey cannot progress into the group of fully civilized nations until it deals with both the Armenian Holocaust and the occupation of Cyprus.

 

SPOOD

11:08 PM ET

December 27, 2011

Waitaminute!

Didn't FP just have an article on how Turkey is harrassing and attacking journalists?

 

AHAMILTON

11:35 AM ET

December 28, 2011

"Hyperbolic Propaganda"?

@Smokenmirror - You say that Turkey is in Cyprus to "protect the north from another escalation from the Greek south" but in reality all Turkey does is recognize an illegal state, carrying it economically, sending settlers from mainland Turkey (who now outnumber Turkish Cypriots), and keeping an occupation garrison of 40,000 Turkish troops on it. In other words, Turkey is maintaining a colony, an illegal one at that according to several UN resolutions. There is no threat of war emanating from the Republic of Cyprus towards Turkey or towards Turkish Cypriots. In fact, since the 2004 opening of the Green Line, more than 15 million crossings have occurred without incident, and tens of thousands of Turkish Cypriots have been given Republic of Cyprus passports (and thus EU citizenship) by the only recognized government on the island. This does not sound like an attempt at ethnic cleansing by the "Greek south". So who is spewing "hyperbolic propaganda"?

 

SPOOD

3:26 PM ET

December 28, 2011

Smokeupyourass continues with phony propaganda

Its bad enough you love the idiot Ron Paul and ascribe to any anti-semitic and bigoted screed known to mankind, now you are spouting the official party line of Turkey circa the late 70's?

Of course your only response is to sling ad hominem because an intelligent argument is something which will always elude you.

So which countries recognize the Turkish controlled part of Cyprus? None. I guess UN resolutions only seem worth taking seriously when against countries you despise.

"Did the Greeks not attempt to ethnically cleanse the north?"

No they didn't. Turkey did that.

http://www.kypros.org/Cyprus_Problem/hr/hr_5.htm
"In the course of the continuing military occupation of 37 percent of the territory of the Republic of Cyprus, the Turkish army, under the actual and exclusive authority and control of the government of Turkey, committed and continues to commit the following atrocities and crimes:

Murders in cold blood of civilians, including women and old men as well as children between 6 months and eleven years. Hundreds of killings of Greek Cypriots by Turkish forces have been reported.

1,619 persons who disappeared are still missing. These persons, 993 soldiers and 626 civilians, amongst them 112 women and 26 children under the age of 16, have been missing since the Turkish invasion of Cyprus in 1974 and as a direct consequence of it. Most of these persons were arrested by Turkish soldiers and were known to be alive in the occupied area or in detention in Turkey long after the cessation of hostilities. Despite the adoption of a number of United Nations resolutions and the establishment of a Committee on Missing Persons in 1981, the fate of the 1,619 missing persons has not yet been ascertained because of obstacles put forward by the Turkish side and because of lack of any cooperation on its part.

Forcible eviction and diplacement of persons from their homes and land. The nearly 200,000 Greek Cypriots who were forcibly expelled from their homes by the Turkish invading forces in 1974, are still being prevented by the Turkish occupation army of returning to their homes in the occupied area and are destitute refugees in their own country. It should be recalled that all relevant United Nations resolutions call for the instituting of urgent measures for the voluntary return of the refugees to their homes in safety. Twenty years have elapsed since then and Turkey arrogantly refuses to implement these resolutions that would enable the refugees to return to their homes and lands. Turkey's 40,000 strong occupation army continues to occupy nearly 37 percent of Cyprus' territory and forcibly prevents any movement of Greek Cypriots to the occupied area. "
---
The list goes on sparky

 

AHAMILTON

3:37 PM ET

December 28, 2011

delusional

The current occupation does not operate as a protection force. The number of Turkish soldiers on the island are offensive in nature. This is the most militarized occupation in the world. How can you say that 40,000 troops are protecting 200,000 Turks (Cypriot and Anatolian) from 800,000 Greek Cypriots that have no air force or navy and a nominal national guard. That's one Turkish soldier for every 20 Cypriot civilians. Even the US in Iraq, at its peak, the ratio of civilians to soldiers was over 100 to 1. The interethnic violence ended a long time ago. Now there is only illigal occupation and colonization. Turkey has a puppet state on the island because it only knows power in the sense of expansionism and militarism. They do not care about the Turkish Cypriots. Didn't Davutoglu in his own book state that Turkey would be in Cyprus even if there were no Turks on Cyprus? These are the "basic facts" as you say.

 

CJEVHER

1:38 AM ET

December 29, 2011

Search button

I don't understand, whenever there is a good article about Turkey, there is always some people like you to comment standart things immediately. Do you have a search button with keywords "Turkey & good" and find articles every morning to comment? Can you please open your eyes and look at the 21st century and read more about Turkey on what is really going on besides what your prejudice says?

 

MADLEN

5:58 AM ET

December 29, 2011

@ Smoker

Bravo, everyone in turkey should share your attitude.

But there is a paradoxon there.
You appreciate the "journey" of armenians, but condemn the "ethnic cleansing" of turks in cyprus. But the ethnic turks made also a "journey", not to the desert, but to turkey and some of them died while swimming there.

Do you know the difference about genocide and holocaust? No? I see!

Turkey is only a puppet of the USA. The US is cute to them and say sweety things to the turkish authorities and the turkish ego grow and grow like a ballon.

Reality will be bitter for turkey, once they realize some things. Even if...

But there is a saying about turkish "mind" in Iran and Arab world - you know, what i mean?

A human being would not appreciate the murder of a people. I don't thing, you are one.

 

LEVANTEN

9:02 AM ET

December 28, 2011

civilization

Considering terrible situation in Greece and Armenia, looks like there is a desperate need for a redefinition of what is a "fully civilized nation". And considering their foreign relations: what was enossis, and who are these people invading and implementing ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabagh? Well, these must be unique examples of how fully civilized nations behave. Victim playing is not a sound foreign policy in the long run, especially during economic crisis.

 

AYHAN KESER

9:14 AM ET

December 28, 2011

Are you serious?

Why "Turkey is the biggest winner of 2011 -- and will soon be a significant power"?

The arguments of writer should be think with relations with US. US supports Erdo?an regime economically and politically because it convinced to use Turkey as a "Trojan Horse" in Muslim world.

Please read my comments on "Arab Spring and Turkey-US Relations" and ""Second" Republic of Turkey: what is the distinction?" to understand Turkey well.

http://politicsofturkey.blogspot.com/2011/11/arab-spring-and-turkey-us-relations.html
http://politicsofturkey.blogspot.com/2011/09/second-republic-of-turkey-what-is.html

 

CJEVHER

1:47 AM ET

December 29, 2011

Wake up

Wake up Ayhan, that was the opposition propoganda of 2005. We are entering 2012 now and things changed a lot. Even people outside Turkey start to see the change but your cronic fanatism makes you blind. Please put it aside and see what is really going on.

 

AYHAN KESER

7:02 AM ET

December 29, 2011

i am awakened

I now how is Turkey transforming and this process almost finished about 2011 elections. But you and some commentators obstinating to misunderstand what is happening in Turkey. There is a pro-US power in Turkey thats all.

 

MARKJALSA

11:14 AM ET

December 28, 2011

I am really sad about this

I am really sad about this death :(

Every one have to go from this world in one day :(

 

CHEO

12:56 PM ET

December 28, 2011

Can it really be

Really? Turkey is the biggest winner of 2011 and will soon be a significant power? I don't really see it becoming a super power, i dunno if they can ever really be compared to everyone else, until they are using other countries or offering stuff to the rest of the world I can't really see it happening.

 

SQUEEDLE

1:50 PM ET

December 28, 2011

Not so fast

A poor economy that has tremendous growth may still be a poor economy. Secondly, past performance does not predict future results. Erdogan is also a bit cozy with Islamists and gets a lot of secular Turkish nationalists' hackles up, particularly in Istanbul. Some are convinced he wants to impose Sharia, though admittedly most are just annoyed that he's not secular enough, and think he wouldn't dare move toward this. When I was in Turkey I noticed there is a lot of money in Istanbul, but once you're far enough outside the metro area, things start to look really poor, run down and technologically deprived. In order to be a big power they're going to need to raise the standard of living a lot more across the board.

Many have remarked on the Turkish housing and economy bubble and say it's going to pop in the near future. They've weathered the Western economic crisis for much the same reasons as India, which is that they were mostly unentangled with Western economies, and not because they had a particularly robust economic system.

If Turkish government and business does not learn from Western capitalist mistakes, they will very rapidly create just as bad of an economic disparity as the US has begun to develop, and that combined with the failure to solve their issues with their Kurdish citizens could very seriously destabilize the country. I don't anticipate that the distribution of wealth will be ethnically evenly spread out all of a sudden.

Among Turks, mainly ethnic Turks, I've noticed a deep longing to return to the imagined glory days of the Ottoman Empire. They can't take criticism either, and have a deep seated pride and sense of former glory. A Turkish guy once told me, with no sense of irony whatsoever, that the lands of the former Ottoman Empire were "always" Turkish, that there is no such thing as a Bulgarian ethnicity, and that some day Turkey would get back all its original land just like the Native Americans will (who of course, are also brothers to the Turkish people, he says). These are also the kinds of people who say, flying in the face of genetic, linguistic, and archeological evidence, that Kurds are just Turks who moved up into the mountains and forgot who they were. People should take this into account when considering what Turkey's economic and political behavior might look like with some increased power.

Since visiting there and getting to know many Turkish citizens, I've come to the conclusion that Turkey is the USA of the Middle East, in most ways, good and bad. Replace Christianity with Islam and white guys with ethnic Turkish men, and you basically have it. Now take those factors and I think we can see a similar trajectory to the US with adjustments made for Turkish and Islamic sensibilities and the current economic and ethnic situation there.

 

SQUEEDLE

2:32 PM ET

December 28, 2011

I used the "one nut case" as

I used the "one nut case" as an example of what I've observed. My impression from both reading and experience was that Istanbullers are highly in favor of a secularized society, not against Islam or atheist, just not interested in having Sharia law institutionalized, and that the West of Turkey and the East of Turkey are very different, however like in most areas, there is always a struggle between urban, progressive culture and rural, conservative culture. Istanbul has 20 million people. I am highly dubious of your claims about majority opinion. I would like to see a reference to the polls you mention.

Last, there is no need to be rude. We can have a debate without being disrespectful, and I appreciate alternate views.

 

CJEVHER

2:03 AM ET

December 29, 2011

Exactly, you had a nut case

Exactly, you had a nut case example and judging the whole majority from him/her. Of course, every country had a golden age and they long for it. E.g. Dutch has golden era in 17th century and they are proud of it. Is it wrong? Turkey had extended borders for hundreds of years and now it is much smaller. If a Turk proud of his/her history is it wrong? Yes, he is quite right that there are still minority Turks living in Bulgaria, Greece, Balkans, Syria, Iraq, Iran etc. But there is no such agenda that Turkey will attack and regain its old lands, that is such a funny statement. Because Turkey already officially gave the lands to the current border countries after the World War I and there is no such talk like enlargement I have ever heard in my life.

 

THTURKEY

8:59 PM ET

December 28, 2011

More of the same

This is probably the 20th article of this kind I've read this year on how Turkey is an "emerging regional power." None, including especially this one, makes a particularly compelling case for what this looks like or means.

1. Turkey has an improving economy with good export competitiveness to Europe and some middle eastern markets, especially in. It has a valuable resource in the financial and cultural assets of Istanbul. It does have construction companies that seem able to move around well.

2. Other than those sectors, Turkey has little ability to project economic, political or military power even within its own region. Its military is in turmoil and has trouble sending even token units to Afghanistan or elsewhere without significant Allied assistance. It isn't rich enough to fund the sorts of regional economic development projects that bind alliances. At least not yet.

3. It is difficult to argue that Turkey has significant cultural power in its neighborhood when it has no relations with one neighbor (Armenia), poor relations with another (Iran), tense relations with a third (Syria), and flies F-16s over Greek islands. Former Ottoman states don't seem particularly delighted with Turkish attempts to "reassert" themselves, and Russia still sees itself as a heavyweight compared to Turkey. Europeans still don't seem particularly interested to listening to Turkish complaining either. Beyond all this the government has been countering an insurgency for 24 years.

4. Its hard to find a Turkish foreign policy priority that has met success. OK--the PM said that Mubarak should resign but, that was about the extent of Turkey's involvement. In Syria, Libya, Afghanistan, and elsewhere, Turkey has chosen to stand on the sidelines and then join the winners at the last minute. It would seem that Turkey is spreading itself a little thin, and really only accomplishes much in tandem with the US. This isn't a bad thing.

As often happens with FP, gross hyperbole overshadows the real good news stories. Turkey has a growing economy that is spreading benefits beyond Istanbul. Turks are far more willing to think about their relations with neighbors and with minorities in their own population in a critical way. It is a country that has a lot to wrestle with, not least of which the role of civil rights and a free press in a modern country--but the debate is going on without bloodshed. But to say that somehow Turkey is a power because Tom Friedman and others say so, or that RT Erdogan is on TV a lot, isn't really much of a case.

 

CALCINHA

6:45 AM ET

December 29, 2011

Can be done except

Reading out the facts is very simple but to take certain action against it is something next to impossible. Nothing can be done except reading out what FP is mentioning...THANKS !
massagista
avioes venda

 

ASDDSA

7:36 PM ET

December 29, 2011

The Info on economy is completely wrong

I appreciate it if Ashraf Ghani gives us just one single real statistics from anywhere, like Worldbank, IMF, OECD, shows that Turkey tripled its economy during Erdogan’s period.

 

YARINSIZ

7:07 AM ET

January 21, 2012

The current occupation does

The current occupation does not operate as a protection force. The number of Turkish soldiers on the island are offensive in nature. This is the most militarized occupation in the world. How can you say that 40,000 troops are protecting 200,000 Turks seslichat (Cypriot and Anatolian) from 800,000 Greek Cypriots that have no air force or navy and a nominal national guard. That's one Turkish soldier for every 20 Cypriot civilians.