It's Not Just Obama

Twenty elections that could change the world in 2012.

BY LOIS PARSHLEY, URI FRIEDMAN | DECEMBER 30, 2011

If 2011 was the year when governments were overthrown in the streets, 2012 could be the year when politics plays out at the ballot box. A third of the world's nations will be holding local, state, or national elections; a number of Arab Spring countries will be putting their democratic aspirations into action; and four out of the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council -- the United States, Russia, China and France -- may retreat from the world stage as they undergo leadership transitions, with major implications for international affairs. Let's take a look at the races that will make headlines in the year to come.

THE UNITED STATES

Type: Presidential, legislative

When: Nov. 6

What to watch: With the Iowa caucuses -- the first nominating contest of the presidential campaign -- only days away, Ron Paul is surging, Newt Gingrich is sliding, and Mitt Romney is, well, proving to be the steady-as-he-goes Republican frontrunner that he's always been. President Barack Obama's approval rating is hovering in the low 40s, while the struggling U.S. economy remains by far the top issue for voters. The focus may be on the next leader of the free world, but which party controls the U.S. legislative branch -- which, in turn, controls U.S. fiscal policy -- is also up for grabs in 2012.

Scott Olson/Getty Images 

 

Lois Parshley and Uri Friedman are editors at Foreign Policy.


OLI RIKOVA

3:57 AM ET

December 31, 2011

Not all elections will make an impact

An interesting selection of forthcoming elections although somehow one has to doubt whether any change in Moldova, for example, could change the world. The US, China, Russia, many of the Arab countries like Libya following the US military intervention will likely see more significant change with theirs. The knock-on effect of those elections will be more impactful, granted with some strategy coaching required in terms of implementing sound governance. The elections in the Arab Spring countries will affect not only the local citizens but also stability in the entire region.

Another interesting one I would have included in your list in Africa, is the South Africa elections - the country will not be going through national or local elections in 2012 but the ruling ANC party will be conducting their own internal leadership vote (this was the same vote in which previous president Thabo Mbeki was unceremoniously ousted bringing Jacob Zuma into power). Now, it seems, the same strategy may turn against him. This would have an impact both in terms of South Africa's stance on nationalization of mines and more - so certainly significant in the overall scheme of things.

Thanks for a great political overview of 2012 all the same.

 

URI FRIEDMAN

9:35 AM ET

January 3, 2012

Thanks!

The ANC leadership vote is a great addition. Thanks for putting it on our radar.

 

RAMKUMAR

4:56 AM ET

December 31, 2011

No kidding

Hardly think elections in Kazakhstan or Moldova is going to make any real change in the world. In my opinion the two that really count here are the US and China (with all the speculation that the communist party there would finally see their reign end). The rest make for nice photos.

 

JAMAAL AKBAR

4:28 PM ET

December 31, 2011

Middle East elections will have impact

I agree perhaps some of the smaller states might not but I believe the biggest impacts will be Egypt and Libya for regional stability and worldwide importance. Given the anti-corruption campaigning going on in India right now, I think any political electoral activity there would also be quite significant. So, you're quite right, it's not just about Obama in 2012.

 

MAHRUKINAM

10:20 AM ET

December 31, 2011

Yes you are right that not

Yes you are right that not only Obama but all of the other are also ready tp and wanted to take the admin authority of USA or what ever so callled England. I dont know what they are doing but they are really taking the whole world to Good way. :)

 

LTLEE

12:18 PM ET

January 1, 2012

Election as horserace. Yet again!!!

The world is changing.So are countries. Elections always mean uncertainty concerning who would win. However, the important issue is not who will win which election per se but whether any game changing outcomes out of these elections.

 

ZEESHANRANJHA

6:37 AM ET

January 2, 2012

Why Obama ?

2011 will likely be recorded as a year of historic change. Mass uprisings have upended governments across the Arab world. Economic mismanagement in Europe led to changes at the top in Italy, Greece and Spain. 365 days ago you couldn't have predicted these events. You couldn't have imagined so many leaders would lose their jobs.

So what if I told you that you can predict that in 2012, a lot of leaders will say goodbye? No, I'm not gazing into a magic crystal ball. You see, 2012 is the year of elections.

59 countries will be tallying up votes - local, state or national. There are 193 countries in the world so that's about a third of the world's nations. 26 of these may see a change in national leadership. Together, these changes could affect 53% of the world's population, representing half of the world's GDP. And a lot of the change is concentrated in the world's most powerful countries.

Four out of the five U.N. Security Council members could see changes at the top. That's Russia, China, France, and, of course, the U.S. These four countries alone represent 40% of the world's GDP.

Of all of them, China will not have democratic elections, of course, but it will see the biggest, wholesale change at the top. 70% of the country's leadership will be new. But we're not expecting any surprises - it's widely believed that Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao will be replaced by Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang. So, get used to those names, you'll be hearing a lot of them.

Russia's election will be the most predictable. We already know that Prime Minister Putin is going to become President Putin once again. But even that change isn't as clear-cut as you'd imagine. For the first time in years, it seems like it's becoming acceptable in Russia to criticize the Kremlin. Putin was recently openly booed at a boxing match, and his party had a stunningly weak showing in the recent parliamentary elections.

What about Washington? One year from now we could have a President Mitt Romney. Or a President Newt Gingrich. Or another Obama term.

South of the border, that perennial pain in Washington's backside, Hugo Chavez himself, needs to win an election - though he rigged the last one. There will be changes too in Mexico, Egypt, Taiwan and Kenya, just to name a few.

Some of these elections and leadership changes involve nothing more than personnel shifts; others will be occasions for fundamental debates about the future course of the country. It could mean a shift so that we will see a different Europe, a different China, and a different America in the next few years.

So for those of you who have been struck by the volatility of recent years - the roller coaster ride we've all been on from boom to bust, crisis to crisis - I would say, keep that seatbelt strapped on because you're going to see a lot of churn over the next year. It may not be bad but there will be no shortage of political twists and turns around the world - and those are just the ones we know about. One thing I can promise, we'll be tracking them all right here on CNN.com/GPS and on my show every Sunday at 10a.m. and 1p.m. EST.2011 will likely be recorded as a year of historic change. Mass uprisings have upended governments across the Arab world. Economic mismanagement in Europe led to changes at the top in Italy, Greece and Spain. 365 days ago you couldn't have predicted these events. You couldn't have imagined so many leaders would lose their jobs.

So what if I told you that you can predict that in 2012, a lot of leaders will say goodbye? No, I'm not gazing into a magic crystal ball. You see, 2012 is the year of elections.

59 countries will be tallying up votes - local, state or national. There are 193 countries in the world so that's about a third of the world's nations. 26 of these may see a change in national leadership. Together, these changes could affect 53% of the world's population, representing half of the world's GDP. And a lot of the change is concentrated in the world's most powerful countries.

Four out of the five U.N. Security Council members could see changes at the top. That's Russia, China, France, and, of course, the U.S. These four countries alone represent 40% of the world's GDP.

Of all of them, China will not have democratic elections, of course, but it will see the biggest, wholesale change at the top. 70% of the country's leadership will be new. But we're not expecting any surprises - it's widely believed that Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao will be replaced by Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang. So, get used to those names, you'll be hearing a lot of them.

Russia's election will be the most predictable. We already know that Prime Minister Putin is going to become President Putin once again. But even that change isn't as clear-cut as you'd imagine. For the first time in years, it seems like it's becoming acceptable in Russia to criticize the Kremlin. Putin was recently openly booed at a boxing match, and his party had a stunningly weak showing in the recent parliamentary elections.

What about Washington? One year from now we could have a President Mitt Romney. Or a President Newt Gingrich. Or another Obama term.

South of the border, that perennial pain in Washington's backside, Hugo Chavez himself, needs to win an election - though he rigged the last one. There will be changes too in Mexico, Egypt, Taiwan and Kenya, just to name a few.

Some of these elections and leadership changes involve nothing more than personnel shifts; others will be occasions for fundamental debates about the future course of the country. It could mean a shift so that we will see a different Europe, a different China, and a different America in the next few years.

So for those of you who have been struck by the volatility of recent years - the roller coaster ride we've all been on from boom to bust, crisis to crisis - I would say, keep that seatbelt strapped on because you're going to see a lot of churn over the next year. It may not be bad but there will be no shortage of political twists and turns around the world - and those are just the ones we know about. One thing I can promise, we'll be tracking them all right here on CNN.com/GPS and on my show every Sunday at 10a.m. and 1p.m. EST.2011 will likely be recorded as a year of historic change. Mass uprisings have upended governments across the Arab world. Economic mismanagement in Europe led to changes at the top in Italy, Greece and Spain. 365 days ago you couldn't have predicted these events. You couldn't have imagined so many leaders would lose their jobs.

So what if I told you that you can predict that in 2012, a lot of leaders will say goodbye? No, I'm not gazing into a magic crystal ball. You see, 2012 is the year of elections.

59 countries will be tallying up votes - local, state or national. There are 193 countries in the world so that's about a third of the world's nations. 26 of these may see a change in national leadership. Together, these changes could affect 53% of the world's population, representing half of the world's GDP. And a lot of the change is concentrated in the world's most powerful countries.

Four out of the five U.N. Security Council members could see changes at the top. That's Russia, China, France, and, of course, the U.S. These four countries alone represent 40% of the world's GDP.

Of all of them, China will not have democratic elections, of course, but it will see the biggest, wholesale change at the top. 70% of the country's leadership will be new. But we're not expecting any surprises - it's widely believed that Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao will be replaced by Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang. So, get used to those names, you'll be hearing a lot of them.

Russia's election will be the most predictable. We already know that Prime Minister Putin is going to become President Putin once again. But even that change isn't as clear-cut as you'd imagine. For the first time in years, it seems like it's becoming acceptable in Russia to criticize the Kremlin. Putin was recently openly booed at a boxing match, and his party had a stunningly weak showing in the recent parliamentary elections.

What about Washington? One year from now we could have a President Mitt Romney. Or a President Newt Gingrich. Or another Obama term.

South of the border, that perennial pain in Washington's backside, Hugo Chavez himself, needs to win an election - though he rigged the last one. There will be changes too in Mexico, Egypt, Taiwan and Kenya, just to name a few.

Some of these elections and leadership changes involve nothing more than personnel shifts; others will be occasions for fundamental debates about the future course of the country. It could mean a shift so that we will see a different Europe, a different China, and a different America in the next few years.

So for those of you who have been struck by the volatility of recent years - the roller coaster ride we've all been on from boom to bust, crisis to crisis - I would say, keep that seatbelt strapped on because you're going to see a lot of churn over the next year. It may not be bad but there will be no shortage of political twists and turns around the world - and those are just the ones we know about. One thing I can promise, we'll be tracking them all right here on CNN.com/GPS and on my show every Sunday at 10a.m. and 1p.m. EST.2011 will likely be recorded as a year of historic change. Mass uprisings have upended governments across the Arab world. Economic mismanagement in Europe led to changes at the top in Italy, Greece and Spain. 365 days ago you couldn't have predicted these events. You couldn't have imagined so many leaders would lose their jobs.

So what if I told you that you can predict that in 2012, a lot of leaders will say goodbye? No, I'm not gazing into a magic crystal ball. You see, 2012 is the year of elections.

59 countries will be tallying up votes - local, state or national. There are 193 countries in the world so that's about a third of the world's nations. 26 of these may see a change in national leadership. Together, these changes could affect 53% of the world's population, representing half of the world's GDP. And a lot of the change is concentrated in the world's most powerful countries.

Four out of the five U.N. Security Council members could see changes at the top. That's Russia, China, France, and, of course, the U.S. These four countries alone represent 40% of the world's GDP.

Of all of them, China will not have democratic elections, of course, but it will see the biggest, wholesale change at the top. 70% of the country's leadership will be new. But we're not expecting any surprises - it's widely believed that Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao will be replaced by Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang. So, get used to those names, you'll be hearing a lot of them.

Russia's election will be the most predictable. We already know that Prime Minister Putin is going to become President Putin once again. But even that change isn't as clear-cut as you'd imagine. For the first time in years, it seems like it's becoming acceptable in Russia to criticize the Kremlin. Putin was recently openly booed at a boxing match, and his party had a stunningly weak showing in the recent parliamentary elections.

What about Washington? One year from now we could have a President Mitt Romney. Or a President Newt Gingrich. Or another Obama term.

South of the border, that perennial pain in Washington's backside, Hugo Chavez himself, needs to win an election - though he rigged the last one. There will be changes too in Mexico, Egypt, Taiwan and Kenya, just to name a few.

Some of these elections and leadership changes involve nothing more than personnel shifts; others will be occasions for fundamental debates about the future course of the country. It could mean a shift so that we will see a different Europe, a different China, and a different America in the next few years.

So for those of you who have been struck by the volatility of recent years - the roller coaster ride we've all been on from boom to bust, crisis to crisis - I would say, keep that seatbelt strapped on because you're going to see a lot of churn over the next year. It may not be bad but there will be no shortage of political twists and turns around the world - and those are just the ones we know about. One thing I can promise, we'll be tracking them all right here on CNN.com/GPS and on my show every Sunday at 10a.m. and 1p.m. EST.

Thanks

Admin of wall clocks | tea kettles

 

KHIR

7:42 AM ET

January 2, 2012

President should against crime, terrorism

As I can see, most of president are eager to show their power and authority. They want to show who is the best president ever. They even decide to kill just to show their power, steal people's wealth.

What happened to these president? Do you believe in karma?

Look what happened to Saddam, Mobarak, Gaddafi? Well you know when the people show their power.

hoover floormate

 

C. NANDKISHORE

12:38 PM ET

January 2, 2012

You missed an important one

You missed an important election. The state of Uttar Pradesh (population 170 million) in India will go for polls in Feb. If the ruling party at the Centre be able to get a substantial seats the expect India to grow at 9% next year. If not then India will grow at 6%. This election will have more impact on the world than many FP has mentioned.

 

URI FRIEDMAN

9:41 AM ET

January 3, 2012

Great addition

Thanks for flagging the Uttar Pradesh elections. Interested in how you came up with the different growth rates depending on the outcome.

 

TOMMYER

8:09 AM ET

January 3, 2012

Russia election

Russia's election will be the most predictable. We already know that Prime Minister Putin is going to become President Putin once again. But even that change isn't as clear-cut as you'd imagine. For the first time in years, it seems like it's becoming acceptable in Russia to criticize the Kremlin juice fountain plus. Putin was recently openly booed at a boxing match, and his party had a stunningly weak showing in the recent parliamentary elections.

 

MARY MCCORMICK

3:07 PM ET

January 3, 2012

2012 Elections

Uri, Lois thanks for a great election roundup for 2012... it seems like it will be quite an exciting year for planet Earth if the world doesn't come to an end as per the Mayan prediction!

As an aside, I just came across a light-hearted related article on wonkie.com, a South African politics blog I follow giving a rather offbeat account of the major events, including national elections around the world, in the form of a 2012 world news horoscope - think you'd have a laugh!

All the best for the New Year and looking forward to reading more from you both in 2012,
Mary

 

DJOHN5854

5:21 PM ET

January 3, 2012

World Ending

No need to worry about all this stuff as the world is ending! :) Seriously though, after the dropout of Herman Cain (thank goodness!), I'm not sure we have that many great candidates. Things could get ugly with the economy continuing to worsen. Better give your insurance agent a call now because things are about to get very ugly I suspect.

Wishing you all a happy 2012, starting the year off with a bang! I hope this year doesn't turn out to be as cruddy 2011, and that we can actually have some sense in the whitehouse once again. We need to get rid of this massive debt pileup once and for all, and we can't do that with such weak management.

 

DJOHN5854

5:23 PM ET

January 3, 2012

World Ending

No need to worry about all this stuff as the world is ending! :) Seriously though, after the dropout of Herman Cain (thank goodness!), I'm not sure we have that many great candidates. Things could get ugly with the economy continuing to worsen. Better give your insurance agent a call now because things are about to get very ugly I suspect.

Wishing you all a happy 2012, starting the year off with a bang! I hope this year doesn't turn out to be as cruddy 2011, and that we can actually have some sense in the whitehouse once again. We need to get rid of this massive debt pileup once and for all, and we can't do that with such weak management.

 

REXTERYALIZER

12:01 AM ET

January 16, 2012

Obamas War on America

Want to thank all of you, for your Powerfull stand against Oboma & His Corrupted political partners.

But there is so much more we can do. Being aggressive and focusing on the facts and truth is only the first step.

We musT follow Up with more details standing by our convictions and dont back down.

Oboma has NOT brought CHANGE, In fact ~! ~ THE ONLY real THING needing CHANGE !....Was Barack Hussein Obama II.

HIMSELF

Barack Hussein Obama II ( Who hates American Values ) who is A " SELF PROCLAIMED Enemy" ~of responsible, Morally Conscious HARD WORKING Americans.

oBOMAS Irresponsible & DRUG MAFIA and reckless supporters KNOW~ that Barack Hussein Obama II, WILL FORCE YOU to paY THEM, out of your PockeT .{ FOR all of their UNCHECKED Vices and THRILLS/

{ All on YOU

| / At your COST & Sacrifice.

...This UN~CHANGABLE fraud, has done His VERY BEST to Inspire VIOLENCE.

THESE ARE OBAMAS OWN WORDS.. saying .........To his supporters.Saying “Get ready for hand-to-hand combat with
your Fellow Americans”

– Obama has ALSO DECLARED to his Supporters. “I want all Americans to get in each others faces!– Obama demands !

“You bring a knife to a fight pal, we’ll bring a gun” –

THESE ARE OBAMAS OWN WORDS.. ANGER VIOLENCE and more taxes..... THIS IS OBAMAS Change for america /“Hit Back Twice As Hard”. He commands ! *Obama on the private sector: ~~ “We talk To these folks…~ / so I know whose a*$ to KICK.“ OBOMA wants to KICK your a*$ /

Shouting THAT Republican victory would mean ~ “hand to hand combat” and HE IS EXPECTING people to be on Edge and BORDERLINE killing MODE, VIOLENT / and STAND up for their immoral CAUSES and THIS IS WHAT HE LIVES FOR ./ ./ ./

THESE ARE OBAMAS OWN WORDS.. !

* Obama Tells democrats: “ I’m itching for a fight.” !

....PLEASE.... go to reXes NEW WebsiTe ~ ! Oboma *( Just like Adolf Hitler~~\oBOMA~~~ Demands ! -- [ THE FINAL SOLUTION - for Un~Wanted Children

Barak Obama is A MURDERER .~Torturing UNWANTED babys on DEATH ROE

CLICK HERE http://obomlnation.webstarts.com/index.html

OBAMA TAKES a little NEW BORN innocent child. BORN. ALIVE sTabS it iN the head and SUCKs ITS BRAINS OUT.

This is just to wrong and horrible. Please stand for Loving Children and the USA.

Respectfully and Thankfully Thank you ALL for your Time.

 

FFBBFFGMAIL

5:54 PM ET

January 3, 2012

Russia election

We already know that Prime Minister Putin is going to become President Putin once again. But even that change isn't as clear-cut as you'd imagine. I Agree in For the first time in years, it seems like it's becoming acceptable in Russia to criticize the Kremlin juice fountain plus....Good Work!
massagista
avioes venda

 

SUPAH

3:30 AM ET

January 20, 2012

Leaders, Lol

The candidates in the up coming election for US presidency is just laughable. They seriously need to work on their Self Confidence when it comes to speaking to large groups and answering questions on the spot like in a debate. If they can't complete the simple task of public speaking, why are they even trying to become President. Some serious Self Improvement workshops are in order for some of these people.

 

YARINSIZ

9:19 AM ET

January 27, 2012

Another interesting one I

Another interesting one I would have included in your list in Africa, is the South Africa elections - the country will not be going through national or local elections in 2012 but the ruling ANC party will be conducting their own internal leadership vote (this was the same vote in which previous president Thabo Mbeki was unceremoniously ousted bringing Jacob Zuma into power). Now, it seems, the same strategy may turn seslichat against him. This would have an impact both in terms of South Africa's stance on nationalization of mines and more - so certainly significant in the overall scheme of things.