2. What is the most important region of the world for U.S. security, and why?

Francis Fukuyama: East Asia, due to the China challenge above.  We have been overextended and over-involved in the Middle East for the past decade; the terrorist threat was greatly overestimated.

Joseph S. Nye: Asia. As I argue in The Future of Power, the shift from West to East is one of the great power shifts in this century.

Kenneth Waltz: China.  China is the emerging great power, and great powers always eye each other warily.

John Mearsheimer: Asia, because there is a danger China will continue its rise and try to dominate that region the way the United States dominates the Western Hemisphere. America cannot allow China to become a peer competitor.

James Fearon: North Africa and the Middle East (extending the notion as far east as Pakistan and Iran), because this is probably where the greatest danger of WMD terrorism or nuclear weapons use comes from in the medium term.  But neither of these threats is particularly likely and it's not clear that our current approach of intervention and heavy counterterrorism is making things better rather than worse.  It's important to note that overall and taking a longer term view, the U.S. is in great shape in terms of national security. We are in a position where spending significantly less on defense could help us with security in the long run by improving our economic situation.

Alexander Wendt: The Mideast, because a) of our dependence on foreign oil and b) the threat of transnational terrorism emanating from the area.

Robert Keohane: East Asia, because it is a site of increasing economic and potentially military power and the locale of the only viable potential rival to the United States.

Martha Finnemore: In the short to medium term, the Middle East. Managing post-withdrawal Iraq and the Pakistan/Afghanistan situation as well as Iran and the continuing developments of the Arab Spring will be a huge challenge. Long term, the shift of power toward Asia, particularly China, will probably be more important.

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita:  I do not believe the U.S. is likely to face a major national security challenge in the next year or so but I imagine if there is a national security challenge it is most likely to come from the Middle East or Latin America.

The Middle East is facing substantial leadership change. New leaders are at the greatest risk of being deposed and so tend to engage in riskier policies if they find themselves with little downside. This could manifest itself, for instance, in aggression by Egypt (unlikely as I said at the beginning of this question) against Israel which will call for a U.S. response. Almost as unlikely this could be manifested as aggression by Israel against Iran or Iran's closing of the Gulf of Hormuz and a forceful effort to open it by the U.S. and allies.

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