Flu Season

Making a superbug that can infect thousands of people is easier than ever. Is there anything governments can do to prevent terrorists from learning how to make a devastating bioweapon?

BY LAURIE GARRETT | JANUARY 5, 2012

Bush administration officials were appalled and pleaded with the editor of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences -- Alberts, at the time -- to decline the paper. As Bush security experts scrambled to find a legal way to force classification of the paper, Alberts noted that the then-new NSABB was not yet ready to offer advice. He was on his own. Alberts opted to publish, concluding, "If the types of calculations and analyses in the Wein and Liu article are carried out only by government contractors in secrecy, not only are the many actors in the U.S. system who need to be alerted unlikely to be well informed, but also the federal government itself may become misled."

The Fouchier and Kawaoka papers have yet to be published. While Alberts and his Nature counterpart mull their options, policymakers ought to consider what a bizarre predicament we are in. Why should such weighty decisions rest on the shoulders of editors? Every time serious dual-use conundrums have reached government, political leaders have demurred and ultimate decisions have similarly fallen to publishers. In every known case, publishers have, as can be expected, opted to publish. This happened in 2001 when Australian scientists accidentally made a 100 percent lethal form of mousepox, the rodent equivalent of smallpox. It also happened when an American team used that same method to make superdeadly cowpox and other pox viruses. Similarly, publication was the choice for a lab-modified version of the 1918 flu virus, ultralethal forms of SARS, a man-made polio (published with a detailed how-to section), and dozens more potentially dual-use discoveries.

In their defense, the relevant scientists and editors argued that there was no evidence that evildoers made use of any of this information. In response to this view, Stuart Nightingale, a biosecurity consultant to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, recently wrote in the Journal of the American Medical Association, "this does not mean, however, that such articles have not been or will not be used to do so. Well-organized, valid information with the imprimatur of respected peer-reviewed journals could be especially valued by a malevolent actor over any information that might be available on the Internet."

Outside of police states, though, censorship is impossible to enforce and ultimately useless within scientific circles. No professional group is as cybersavvy as scientists, save the actual computer-industry coders. Indeed, the Internet was originally created decades ago to encourage the exchange of information among scientists. Most researchers have tight collegial relationships with their peers, among whom discoveries are shared almost instantly. Methods, samples, reagents, and the basic intellectual tools of science are freely exchanged, and scientists who opt out of this fluid process are shunned, even condemned, by their peers. This is true at all tiers of the scientific process, from the senior-investigator level all of the way down to undergraduates toiling inside campus laboratories for school credit. Electronic information leaks, gets hacked, or "disappears" all the time. It is profound folly to imagine that global biosecurity can be attained through censorship. Even the NSABB decision to allow publication with methods omitted misses the point: Most of us (I include myself) already know how, in broad terms, Fouchier made his supervirus, and dozens of leading scientists all over the world know the work in sufficient detail to replicate it.

Still, recognizing the limitations of current codes and the BWC, some members of the European Union now advocate policing of science. A movement is afoot to allow police authorities to examine lab notebooks and scour laboratories across the continent on a routine, proactive basis. In a controversial editorial in the December edition of the European Molecular Biology Organization's journal, editor Howy Jacobs argued, "Some might argue that the state has no place in an academic laboratory, but I believe the threat is real enough that this blanket appeal for trust and virtue is insufficient as a response.… No security system can be perfect. But democratic societies and responsible scientists need to be vigilant and proactive."

Jacobs's plea is not likely to find many adherents among biologists, who as a group strongly believe in sharing information. The social norm of sharing is at its most extreme among self-described "life hackers" and "DIY (do-it-yourself) synthetic biologists." By definition, these biologists think that science ought to, in the Internet era, be a vast collective enterprise for the good of humanity, wherein thousands of researchers toiling inside home pseudo-labs, colleges, or enormous professional facilities work together to solve pressing problems. They are trying to turn algae into genetically modified solar collectors, use viruses as switch signals in tiny biocomputers, make vital food crops drought- or pest-resistant, create living art from genetically modified assemblages of organisms, and cure diseases by growing genetically altered cell colonies that can be surgically implanted or injected into ailing people. Some adherents to the DIY biology movement insist that their collective amateur laboratories are akin to the garage days of the development of Apple and Microsoft hardware and software in Northern California. From a scientific viewpoint, it would be hard to name any time in the history of biology as exciting as this.

Even in traditional pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and academic environs, the synthetic-biology movement, coupled with extraordinary advances in genetic sequencing, have upped the ante on both what is possible and what constitutes "dual-use" potential. A decade ago, sequencing the human genetic blueprint was a monumental feat costing millions of dollars, executed in hundreds of labs around the world. Today an individual's genetic blueprint can be fully sequenced in a couple of days at a cost of about $1,000; biotech company Illumina advertises the service at $4,000. New technology coming out of the pipeline will bring that time and cost down more than 90 percent this year. Sequencing far smaller microbes is now so cheap and easy that deciphering the deadly details of plague or AIDS can be performed by, as Clinton phrased it, anybody with "college-level chemistry and biology." A perfectly functional DIY synthetic-biology lab, complete with gene sequencer, costs about $25,000 today; it will go for $5,000 soon.

 SUBJECTS:
 

Laurie Garrett is senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations and recipient of the 1996 Pulitzer Prize for her coverage of the Ebola outbreak. Her latest book is I Heard the Sirens Scream: How Americans Responded to the 9/11 and Anthrax Attacks.

JAMESMWILSONMD

1:15 AM ET

January 6, 2012

Detection And Warning Of Biotech Accidents

http://biosurveillance.typepad.com/biosurveillance/2012/01/detection-and-warning-of-biotech-accidents-.html

The recent, ongoing controversy about genetic experimentation with pathogens of high potential consequence for global health raises serious questions about our global capability and capacity to 1) detect events associated with accidents of biological technology ("biotechnology"); 2) recognize those signatures; and 3) issue timely warning of such phenomenon to the world in a transparent process free of political tendencies to withold information.

In regards to the recent reports of deliberate genetic experimentation with H5N1 virus, the root question that should have been asked by the media and anyone astutely watching the controversy is why did the US National Institutes of Health (NIH) authorize the expenditure of US taxpayer funds for the experiment in the first place?

Funding from NIH does not happen magically. One has to respond to a Request For Proposals (RFP) with a formal proposal that includes a detailed description of the experiment that is to take place and the justification for that experiment. There is a rather uncomfortable question to be asked of NIH that goes something like this: "Were you aware of the nature of the experiments about to be conducted by these researchers using US taxpayer funds before the experiments were actually executed?"

 

AASPURANI

1:51 PM ET

January 6, 2012

Good article over flu. I

Good article over flu.

I really like this article indeed !!

 

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January 6, 2012

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TOMMYER

10:47 AM ET

January 7, 2012

Thanks for content. the

Thanks for content. the bird-flu virus is scary. juice fountain plus

 

FLD

2:22 PM ET

January 7, 2012

I am against

I am against all sorts of biological weapons. Saying it could reach in terrorist hands then i would say any country who is developing such weapons they are terrorists because this is inhuman.
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JOHNKRINE

2:58 PM ET

January 31, 2012

the world we live in

This is part of the world we live in today and it is a shame that we have to worry about things like this. It makes me want to live in a very remote area where there is no chance of one of these super bombs going off. This might be the only way to protect yourself from something like this effecting you screen printing austin, but maybe there is a way to keep these bombs out of the terrorists hands, but from what I can tell, this is the world that we live in now and there is not much that we can end up doing besides fighting the terrorists and keeping them from progressing technologically. Austin used cars

 

VCHALETS

11:50 PM ET

January 7, 2012

Biological Nightmare

This is such a very real threat and sometimes I wonder if the strains of flu that have been known to mutate so much from year to year area indeed bred or manipulated by such cruel and inhuman people. I suppose somethings we will never know but doesn't it seem ironic that regular old antibiotics just don't cut it anymore ? I honestly abhor seeing articles like this worried about what wacko is sitting home reading them. Good coverage though and well written. Regards,
Cindy at VChalet

 

ADAMCAS

12:09 AM ET

January 9, 2012

Man Made Flu - Oh Dear...

This is scary stuff. We not need worry about violent weapons barreling towards our shores but the unexpected sick day. Yet another fear evoking tactic, but should we really take note of this one? It seems people really are dying of the flu and pneumonia more frequently than ever before.

Kids are most at risk because they lack the strong immune system of an adult. In horror, one day your kid may be missing and you will need to conduct a city wide child search to try and find them as they went delirious from this nightmare of a flu.

This post made me more concerned than anything about politics or other world affairs and war. This is chemical warfare that can run wild even if it is being made by the very people that are supposed to be protecting us. Scientists should not have this type of power, period. One careless mistake and it's floating around in the wind thus airborne ready to infect the entire population.

 

VICTORIA72

7:52 PM ET

January 11, 2012

madness eh

It is extremely dumb to publish papers on or to develop such a virus in the first place, it's unfortunately not as bad as some things in labs belonging to the superpowers. Whilst there's all kinds of treaties against using biological weapons it's never stopped various contries from developing them.

Possibly more damaging are crop diseases, the US had a stockpile of a rice pathogen during the 60's - it's one thing for a virulent disease to be doing the round but quite another to wipe out large amounts of the worlds food stockpile....our inventiveness for cruelty to our fellow man is beyond compare..it's a marvel any of us get to sleep at night with all of this hanging over us.

 

CANOE

1:01 AM ET

January 10, 2012

H5N1

H5N1 is found in Hongkong again, if there any biological weapons can kill such bird-flu virus?

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LEETCH2

2:42 PM ET

January 11, 2012

scary

I read this story on CNN and it was scary. All these viruses all over the place.

 

DAVIDWALKINSON

7:34 AM ET

January 14, 2012

Seconded

My friends are a little paranoid all about this. I'd love to have more transparency about what the development is.

David Walkinson
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