The Imran Khan Phenomenon

Is Pakistan’s cricket star-turned-politician for real?

BY ARIF RAFIQ | JANUARY 12, 2012

In 1992, with his cricket career at its twilight, an aging Imran Khan boldly pledged that the Pakistani national team would win the World Cup for the first time. In March of that year, before a packed stadium in Melbourne, Pakistan defeated former colonial master England, taking the cup and shocking the world of cricket. Khan returned home with a trophy in his hands, enshrined forever as a national hero.

These days, Khan leads another group of underdogs: a political party known as the Pakistan Tehreek-e Insaf (PTI). Last September, Khan made a familiarly bold prediction: PTI, which has only won a single National Assembly seat in its 15-year history, will sweep the next general elections. PTI, Khan says without a semblance of doubt, will rid Pakistan of corruption, endemic poverty, and violence -- and eventually bring the country to what he sees as its rightful place on the world stage.

Since his retirement from cricket, Khan has been devoted to social work and politics. Inspired by his mother's death, he founded the world-class Shaukat Khanum Memorial Cancer Hospital and Research Center, trusted and respected by Pakistanis of all stripes. Khan's political career, however, has been another story. PTI, despite the initial hype and fanfare, never really took off. Its founding members left the scene early on, and Khan was regularly outsmarted by wilier politicos.

A solitary Khan would regularly lambast the political class on Pakistan's many talk shows. Critics dismissed him as the darling of the country's television anchors and the electorally irrelevant "burger-baby" and "mummy-daddy" types (i.e. coddled, Westernized, rootless, upper-middle class youth). Political satire shows lampooned him as a raving, repetitive political loser.

In 2005, Sheikh Rashid Ahmad, then a backer of military ruler Pervez Musharraf, mocked Khan and patronizingly offered to help him win a seat "anywhere he wants." Fast forward six years ahead, and Sheikh Rashid, seated next to Khan on live television, was ingratiatingly referring to the ex-cricketer as a "brother" and meekly asking him for help in winning a few seats in the next elections.

Once an electoral non-entity, Khan's PTI could potentially win dozens of National Assembly seats in the next polls -- hence the Pauline conversion of opportunists like Sheikh Rashid. Already, PTI has upended the détente between the two major political powers -- the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) -- and put both on the defensive. PTI might become the country's third-largest party, giving it the power to determine who heads Pakistan's next coalition government. Khan, no longer a political joke, is a potential kingmaker positioned to prove the doubters wrong once again.

Pakistan's political class began to take PTI seriously last fall as the party organized a series of large rallies in Punjab, the country's largest province and home to its most competitive elections. In late October, PTI beat all expectations and gathered more than 100,000 people in Lahore, the home turf of the PML-N. The jalsa, or gathering, was a smartly choreographed and nationally televised spectacle, featuring religious conservatives, students from the city's elite schools, and well-to-do housewives. Together, they listened to rousing speeches by politicians and musical performances by the country's top pop artists, and sang the national anthem. An article in the web edition of Pakistan's Express Tribune declared, "Imran Khan's 'tsunami' sweeps Lahore." In Lahore, Khan proved he was able to mobilize large numbers of potential voters in a key constituency, signaling to political free agents that his party has a fundraising and logistical network that can get out the vote on Election Day.

Despite his newfound success, the core of Khan's message has remained the same over the years. He has railed against what he describes as a corrupt, venal political class and an invasive, bullying America. In 1996, he called Asif Ali Zardari, then Pakistan's first husband, the country's "biggest disease." He continues to describe Zardari, now the president, as a major impediment to Pakistan's progress. In 2004, Khan opposed Pakistani military operations in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, warning that once a war with the local tribes begins, "the entire army will be stuck in the tribal areas forever." In 2011, he was instrumental in forging a consensus statement at an all-parties conference that called for talks with the Taliban.

With tensions rising with the United States and a faltering economy, Khan is striking a chord in Pakistan unlike ever before. Pakistanis, ravaged by the scourge of terrorism during the decade after 9/11, saw themselves as casualties of America's war in Afghanistan. Now, after an ugly downturn in U.S.-Pakistan relations in 2011 -- including the humiliating Abbottabad raid to capture Osama bin Laden -- many believe America's actual target is Pakistan itself.

Khan's supporters see him as the most credible advocate for ending Islamabad's support of America's wars in Pakistan and Afghanistan. While other politicians have publicly condemned U.S. action in Pakistan, WikiLeaks cables demonstrate that they tend to speak more approvingly to U.S. officials in private. In contrast, Khan seems to have delivered the same message to the street and the State Department.

At the heart of PTI's sudden rise is the confluence of an effective narrative, a charismatic and credible evangelist, and fortuitous timing. As Pakistan's ties with the United States have worsened, so have problems with its economy and government. The consumer price index is close to the teens, putting great strain on the average Pakistani's finances. The state-owned airlines, railways, and steel mills bleed billions of dollars a year. Prolonged electricity blackouts have continued for their sixth straight year, hammering local industries.

To fix all this, Khan promises to make Pakistan an "Islamic welfare state" where the government promotes justice and equity, is devoid of corruption, and offers social services to the poor. Pakistan, Khan says, should emulate non-Western economic success stories, such as Mahathir Mohammed's Malaysia, Lee Kuan Yew's Singapore, and Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Turkey.

For his supporters, Khan is a symbol of what can go right in a country that has seen so much wrong. And he is seen as a leader who has promised victory when the odds were against him and has regularly come through in the clutch. When Khan announced his plans to build a cancer hospital, it was dismissed as "unworkable idea," according to Pakistani commentator Tariq Bashir. But "like Imran Khan's cricketing career," Bashir writes, the institution has become a "surprising success stor[y]."

With anti-incumbent sentiment running high as voters blame the country's two largest parties for the ugly status quo, Khan is the perfect candidate for Pakistanis sick of the usual suspects or skeptical about whether democracy even works for Pakistan. The two major parties are seen by many as having been tried, tested, and failed. The PPP rules at the center, while the PML-N runs Punjab, the largest province. Each has had two previous shots at running the country since 1988.

PTI has shaken up Pakistani politics. Since the Lahore rally, PTI's rivals have tried to emulate the party's use of social media, youth outreach, and even the musical interludes during speeches. Some reports even claim that the PTI challenge has forced the country's two major parties to reposition and mutually obstruct Khan's advance.

Meanwhile, droves of electable politicians, including three former foreign ministers, have defected from Pakistan's major political parties to join the PTI. The new entrants include many members of the previous army-backed government under Musharraf, causing the PTI central vice president to resign in protest.

Khan says he can't find angels to join PTI. He's right. For years he sought unsuccessfully to build the party from the bottom up. When he founded his party, he pledged to bring in a new class of politician to supplant the "predatory" politicians who have "sieged" Pakistan's system. 

But Pakistani voters tend to be pragmatic rent-seekers, siding with the candidate they feel will most effectively channel state resources their way. Khan needs politicians with a track record of winning. The party also benefits from the experience brought by an influx of established politicians, who can help add depth to the party's policy agenda.

And yet, however necessary, PTI's recruitment of established politicians challenges its claim that it is in pursuit of tabdeeli, or change. It will have to leverage Khan's leadership and clean image to counterbalance the growing perception that it is old wine in a new bottle. If PTI fails to do so, it will find it difficult to hold on to young and upper-middle class supporters, traditional non-voters who see Khan as their favorite anti-politician politician.

In the coming weeks and months, PTI will develop its election manifesto. This will be an opportunity for Khan and company to explain how they will address Pakistan's structural weaknesses. PTI will have to articulate its plans to increase government revenue and reduce federal debt, salvage sinking government-owned corporations, lower dependence on natural gas and increase the efficiency of the electricity grid, attract foreign direct investment and boost domestic economic growth, deal with militants who do not lay down their arms and continue their war against the state, and find a place for Pakistan in a rising Asia -- beyond making endearing platitudes to China.

None of Pakistan's problems can be solved overnight. They require not just bold leadership, but quiet skills developed with political experience, such as the ability to assemble coalitions and build consensus. As much as Khan rails against the system, in the event PTI leads the next governing coalition, he will need allies in the bureaucracy, military, and parliament to push his agenda through. Democracy skeptics and politicians who have jumped on the PTI bandwagon could leave as quickly they have joined. And Khan's political opponents might lack the capability or will to solve Pakistan's problems, but they are certainly able to prevent him from doing so.

Imran Khan describes his party's rise as a "tsunami" engulfing the nation's politics. For the first time, PTI will likely have the numbers to influence government policy after elections are held sometime this year. With political success comes great responsibility. If Khan and PTI fail to rise to the challenge, their tsunami will be nothing but a natural disaster.

AAMIR QURESHI/AFP/Getty Images

 SUBJECTS:
 

Arif Rafiq is president of Vizier Consulting, LLC, which provides strategic guidance on Middle East and South Asian political and security issues. He writes at the Pakistan Policy Blog and tweets @PakistanPolicy.

TAIMUR MALIK

1:34 PM ET

January 12, 2012

Great piece Mr. Rafiq!

Kudos on a well thought out piece!

 

KBC

1:57 PM ET

January 12, 2012

On a sticky wicket

Imran Khan is using the political platitudes to do the improbable for the third time. But there is more than what meets the eye.

Khan is heralded as the last hope for Pakistanis. His support base is urban, educated Pakistanis who would love to see their cricketing hero becoming their prime minister.

On the other side, Khan knows that he can't win the majority on the basis of small middle class. He is pandering to Islamists to increase his support base.

He called the killing of Osama Bin Laden as a cold blooded murder. He wants
USA to stop drone attacks and leave Afghanistan. On one side, he represents the modern side of Pakistan and on the other side he draws the support of Islamic fundamentals.

With army, ISI and now Pervez Musharraf joining the coming Tsunami, Imran might do the improbable in 2013 elections. Can he bring in the change?

Seems highly unlikely considering his support base. He will have to disappoint either the moderates or Islamists. To add to his woes, he has no governing acumen or experience. Looks like Pakistan is going somewhere

 

DR. KUCHBHI

2:52 PM ET

January 12, 2012

Propped up by the establishment

against Messrs. Zardari and Nawaz Sharif - neither of whom have a bonhomie relationship with the army - Imran Khan is the fond hope of the army/ISI combine.

He says the right things (as far as they are concerned) and can help the army create what is often called in Pakistan as a "smart coup" - where the army runs the show through the facade of a democratically elected civilian government.

It is no accident that thanks to the ISI control over the Pakistani media (yes they actually have a PR department that makes sure that newspapers print/create web pages cast their view as the news), Imran Khan has moved up from someone who could barely win his own seat to a potential "king maker"...

 

MARTY MARTEL

3:05 PM ET

January 12, 2012

Real question - Does Pakistani Army support Imran Khan?

Real question is – does Pakistani Army support Imran Khan?

Army has always been a real power behind the throne in Pakistan. Imran Khan has made sure to praise Pakistani Army.

Musharraf is planning to return by the end of January.

More likely than not, Zardari/Gilani government will fall and new elections will be called.

Musharraf will be elected as President and Imran Khan’s party will win majority of the seats in Parliament. So Imran Khan will be the prime minister.

Unless of course, Army refuses to support Musharraf, in which case Imran Khan will be elected as President and appoint a stooge from his party as prime minister approved by Army, naturally.

Afterall Pakistani Army does NOT want to stop the gravy train of international aid to duplicitous and bankrupt Pakistan.

 

AARIFSKYPE

2:39 AM ET

January 13, 2012

Imrans independance

You know the guy is becoming important when the Indian web-comments mafia gets threatened, envious and activated!
Imran's role was key in leading the movement (in Pakistan and abroad) that removed the military general pervez musharraf. Wikileaks showed how he was the only Pakistani politician saying to Ambassador Patterson in private exactly what he was saying in public.
He is the only politician to have said (on CNN IBN India) that the army would report to him or else he would resign and theat Erdogan's treatment of the army was his model. He resigned the cricket captaincy twice when he did not have full control - Indians know this better than anyone.
I have been to his rallies, I have not seen such passion since the days of ZA Bhutto in 1971, nor such a diversity of religious belief, social class age and gender.
Here is the 2 minute amateur video I made at his rally in Karachi to prove my point. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CQG589swl4

 

DR. KUCHBHI

10:56 AM ET

January 13, 2012

With due respect,

who runs Pakistan is irrelevant to most people as long as that person really is running things.
Pakistan's neighbors care that the person who claims to be in charge can shut up the terrorist infrastructure if not shut it down. What else he/she does inside Pakistan is of no consequence to anybody around the world.

Pakistan could have become the best thing since sliced bread had it not been for ZA Bhutto's stubborn desire to become PM even though he LOST the election to Sheikh Mujibur Rehman. It was his greed (you call it passion) for power that drove the army to commit genocide against its Bengali population and split the country.
The internal hate machine within Pakistan after that has been pretty adept after that at making sure that it lags behind its true potential.

If Imran Khan truly can control the army, more power to him. Chances are however that the army and ISI will remind him that he is powerless without them. They made him. They can break him.

 

AARIFSKYPE

1:11 PM ET

January 13, 2012

Dude

... Just admit, youre jealous because Pakistanis are just sexier (and less annoyingly earnest)!

 

SHAAMYL77

1:27 PM ET

January 13, 2012

Blinded by Prejudice

Dr Kussbi and Marty (Banya) Martell will never be happy with anything good about Pakistan-----------------

Blinded by sheer hindu mentality and prejudice!

 

DR. KUCHBHI

4:56 PM ET

January 13, 2012

Ok. I confess, Aarif :-)

I am jealous of Pakistani's sexy looks. It would be odd if I weren't, after seeing Nazia Hassan, Salma Agha, Zeba Bakhtiar, Hina Rabbani Khar and Veena Malik.
Not sure about Pakistanis being less annoyingly earnest though. :-)

Shaamyl: I can attack your religion and there's no shortage of adjectives that I can attach to that. Or I can just ignore you. Hmmm!! Tough choice! I'll go with 2.

 

HEATHERGA

4:30 AM ET

January 13, 2012

Respect For The Guy

If there's a Pakistani that I really respect it is Imran. He's independent and I believe he's dedicated to the betterment of Pakistan. I believe in his Dream

 

SAFOORA

10:57 AM ET

January 13, 2012

Imran Khan is a new pawn of

Imran Khan is a new pawn of the paistani establishment.His stance about terrorism is nothing short of propaganda and downright dangerous...he advocates bowing down to terrorist pressure and integrating them within society.Any informed observer of pashtun society knows that this is not possible.Taliban are hardened criminals and in many cases front of drug cartles..they will never become party of any society's fabric...rather they will use the peacetime opportunity to hijack society and finish off their enemies.
Pakistan' core problem is not corruption but civil/military balance and a security state.The demands and expenditure of a security state has aborted development in education and heath YET does Mr Khan ever say a word about it.NO.I have never heard him mention corruption of Generals and the damage Marshal Law rules have caused Pakistan.He only targets the Pakistani politicians because Military wants to remove a hostile political class and he is their instrument.I will never vote for him and many people are realizing his cosy relations with the Army.

 

C. NANDKISHORE

11:27 AM ET

January 13, 2012

Depends

Having seen so many elections in India following are my observations:
1. In the 100 odd state and national elections held the most important item is organisation. Without organisation emotion does not bring results.
2. National elections will be held in Pakistan in 2013. A full one and half year. Emotions do not sustain for such a long time.
3. It is easier to get crowds in a city. But most seats are in rural areas. So penetration into rural areas is important. Loyalty places a important part in rural areas.
4. Imran khan should have at least that many winnable ( at least 20% votes) candidates in all the constituencies.
5. It is costly to fight a state or national election. Candidates do not spend from their pockets unless they are sure it will pay back.
6. People in Pakistan have at least two other regular parties to choose from before switching over to Imran Khan.
7. Everybody is corrupt. So corruption is a non issue.
Considering all the above Imran Khan cannot get more than 5 seats in NA.

 

MCMCMC

1:41 PM ET

January 21, 2012

He called the killing of

He called the killing of Osama Bin Laden as a cold blooded murder. He wants
USA to stop drone attacks and leave Afghanistan. On porno one side, he represents the modern side of Pakistan and on the other side he draws the support of Islamic fundamentals.

With army, ISI and now Pervez Musharraf joining the coming Tsunami, Imran might do the improbable in 2013 elections. Can he bring in the change?