Radioactive Politics

Why President Obama might be in serious trouble when it comes to his handling of Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

BY SCOTT CLEMENT | JANUARY 18, 2012

Scott Clement is the polling analyst for the Washington Post. The poll-watcher analysis series on American public opinion on foreign policy is cross-posted at the Behind the Numbers blog.

President Barack Obama's most nagging challenge remains a persistently sluggish economy, but a new Washington Post-ABC News poll reveals a chink in his foreign-policy armor less than 11 months before he faces voters: Iran's nukes.

By a 48 to 33 percent margin, Americans disapprove of the way Obama has handled the possibility of Iran obtaining nuclear weapons. His rating is markedly worse than for his performance on terrorism and international affairs as well as attitudes toward his overall job performance, where equal numbers approve and disapprove.

It's a classic sleeper issue. Less than 1 percent of Americans in the Washington Post-ABC poll named Iran as the single most important issue in their vote for president this year, and fewer than one in four in a Pew Research Center poll released last week said they were following the latest kerfuffle over the Strait of Hormuz. Nevertheless, an overwhelming majority of registered voters take Iran's efforts to develop nuclear weapons seriously (88 percent), according to a November poll from Quinnipiac University.

Will Iran emerge as a key factor this year? The economy and unemployment rate will almost certainly remain top issues throughout the campaign, but Obama's Republican challengers see an opening and have already drawn parallels between weakness in the U.S. economy and Obama's positioning with Iran. In a November debate, Mitt Romney called Iran "the gravest threat to America and the world" and said that Obama "did not do what was necessary to get Iran to be dissuaded from their nuclear folly."

The GOP candidates received additional ammunition to use against Obama from a November U.N. report showing Iran has "mastered the critical steps needed to build a nuclear weapon." Obama's current standoff with Iran over the strategic Strait of Hormuz -- including his call for direct talks with Iran -- may also provide fodder for his challengers. But there's a risk of overreaching as well. Asked about the best approach to Iran, 65 percent of Americans chose "economic and diplomatic efforts" in a November CNN/ORC poll, compared with 16 percent supporting immediate military action; 17 percent preferred no action at all.

Republicans miffed by Paul's anti-interventionist rhetoric.

The boos Texas Rep. Ron Paul received in a South Carolina debate on Monday, Jan. 16, for proposing the "golden rule" approach to foreign policy are indicative of Republican reactions across the country. In the new Washington Post-ABC poll, nearly twice as many Republicans and GOP-leaning independents say Paul's opposition to military intervention overseas is a major reason to oppose him rather than to support him (49 percent vs. 25 percent), an even more negative reaction than in December.

Paul's anti-interventionist views do have an audience with some in the GOP electorate, however, as evidenced by the cheers Paul received after declaring, "This country doesn't need another war; we need to quit the ones we're in." While most rank-and-file Republicans disagree with Paul on these issues, more than one in three Republican-leaning independents say his opposition to foreign intervention is a major reason to support him. Even among this group, though, over four in 10 take the opposite view.

(The poll was conducted by telephone Jan. 12 to Jan. 15 among a random sample of 1,000 adults. The overall results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The sample of 414 Republicans and GOP-leaning independents has an error margin of plus or minus 5.5 percentage points.)

 

IRAMENCY

12:14 AM ET

January 19, 2012

iran and weapons and obamas bad rap

Everyone and anyone saw this coming. Iran's weapons has been a topic on the table for awhile. Obama gets a bad rap but if someone can do a better job let him come forward. I sure would not want that job, and what people don't think about is trying to clean up one big mess left over from the previous administrations. Good luck getting anything passed through the House, but people will cry when your started with Plan A+ and by the time you pass it though and get it back, it's more like Plan B-. Give him a break. At least he tries....

 

ALEXANDER JAMES

10:47 PM ET

January 19, 2012

Iran's weapons and drone

@iramency, Iran has certainly been working on "getting nuclear" for quite some time. Obama hasn't been able to do much just like Bush, Clinton and those who've gone before.

To think we're so arrogant as to impose our will on independent countries is ludicrous. The sanctions are biting them but may come back to bite us as global oil prices rise.

The sanctions are probably hurting the citizens hopes for a golden life and financial freedom more than they are the politicians in power.

 

AARKY

6:22 PM ET

January 20, 2012

Obama needs to get a spine

If this President would get a political spine and as part of his State of the Union speech, name all the members of the past and present heads of the Israeli Mossad who say that Iran is not a threat to Israel or anyone else. He would be ahead of the curve, He then needs to call out the blatantly obvious lobbying groups in the US such as AIPAC and WINEP for their constant lies. On top of that he needs to also remind Congress that they have an obligation to the US first and Israel someplace way down the line. He then needs to read aloud the names of all the members of Congress and their staffers who have dual citizenship with Israel. Lastly he needs to remind the citizens that too much of the information they hear about Iran building nukes comes from a clever Israeli propaganda campaign in the US media.

 

ALI MANN

12:53 PM ET

February 16, 2012

Obama gets a bad rap but if

Obama gets a bad rap but if someone can do a better job let him come forward. I sure would not want that job, and what people don't think about is trying to clean up one big mess left over from the previous administrations. Good bwin luck getting anything passed through the House.On top of that he needs to also remind Congress that they have an obligation to the US first and Israel someplace way down the line. He then needs to read aloud the names of all the members of Congress and their staffers who have dual citizenship with Israel.