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The Lesson of Bani Walid

In post-Gaddafi Libya, the dream of a stable central government is fading. Militias are filling the gap.

BY CHRISTOPHER STEPHEN | JANUARY 28, 2012

In the hilly desert scrub north of the town of Bani Walid, Libya's revolutionaries have been fighting again. Militia units who thought the war ended last year with the death of Gaddafi are back in uniform. Their battered pickup trucks mounting anti-aircraft guns are parked again astride the highway north of the town, 90 miles south of Tripoli.

Many of these men participated in the rebel assault on the town, one of Gaddafi's last redoubts, when it fell in October. Now they are back again, this time as pro-government forces. Sort of. "We are not part of the National Army," says Hatir Said Suleiman, a bearded fighter from Tobruk, hunched deep into his green combat jacket against the freezing wind that rolls in off the desert. "We are the National Guard."

The distinction is important: "National Guard" is a rather grand name for what is actually a hodgepodge of volunteers from militias across the country, sporting as many styles of camouflage jackets as home towns. The National Guard is an alliance with no certain leader, an amalgamation of elements from hundreds of militias, held together because they share a common goal: the eradication of the people who terrorized them for forty-two years, then bombed, rocketed, tortured, and raped for another eight months. Think Paris Commune, or Cromwell's New Model Army.

By contrast, the government-appointed National Army is small. In the eyes of the militiamen, its reputation is tainted by its officers, many of whom served under Gaddafi. In Bani Walid it has been conspicuous by its absence.

Contrary to many of the headlines, the battle in Bani Walid, which the pro-revolutionary forces now seem to have decided in their favor, was not part of a pro-Gaddafi uprising. Green flags did not, as was first reported, sprout from the rooftops. The issue was the arrest of war crimes suspects. Since the end of last year's fighting, Bani Walid has become a refuge for the waifs and strays of the former Gaddafi administration who are on the war crimes lists of other cities. A pro-government unit in the town had begun to arrest them when on Monday their base was attacked by a local clan. Four soldiers were killed, the rest fled, and the suspects were set free.

Now the National Guard wants them back. "We want to go home, we all want to go home," says National Guard fighter Osman El Hadi, himself from Beni Walid. "But first we need to finish this."

This minor uprising, in short, is less significant in itself than for what it says about the disarray of the post-revolutionary administration in Tripoli. Right now, power on the national level is exercised by the National Transitional Council (NTC). But this latest crisis has revealed once again that the NTC is, at best, a bit player.

The real power in Libya remains dispersed among the country's bewildering array of grassroots military formations. Most are grouped around town or city military councils; Tripoli is divided into 11 district militias. The last time anyone counted, Misrata had 172, ranging from ten-man outfits to the 500-strong Halbus Brigade, with a wartime strength of 17,000. That figure has since plummeted, with thousands returning to their jobs.

MAHMUD TURKIA/AFP/Getty Images

 

Christopher Stephen reported from the Libyan war for The Guardian and is the author of Judgement Day: The Trial of Slobodan Milosevic, Atlantic Monthly Press (New York), 2005.

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THE_OBSERVER

11:44 PM ET

January 27, 2012

To be expected

Anyone with half a brain could see this coming. I notice that all those who were in favour of regime change in Libya such as the Arab League and NATO are noticeably absent in any security provision, stabilization and nation building in Libya. This was a case of divide and conquer. The Western oil companies will be doing business with individually controlled regions as they do in the Kurdish parts of Iraq right now.

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SOZLUKSON

3:31 AM ET

January 28, 2012

Agreed

Arab League and NATO are noticeably absent in any security provision. Moreover western oil companies do what they want. We need more educated brains...
e?itim setleri

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SEOSEMLT2

5:57 AM ET

January 28, 2012

Agree

I agree with your opinion. It always was about oil. Western world don't think about helping to do any good changes to the Libya or other country, every time it is just seeking of new recourses odontologijos klinika.

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ARABIAN KNIGHTS

11:38 AM ET

January 28, 2012

Thank you!

Thank you! Anyone who knew anything about Libya and its 'rebels' would have known that they were composed of Al-Qaida elements... Just like the crazies in Egypt, Syria and Yemen are composed of the Muslim Brotherhood, the predecessor of Al-Qaida.... My tax dollars paid for what???

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HARELKINZ

7:32 PM ET

January 29, 2012

To obey is better than sacrifice.

Reading the above article made me feel so sad and disillusioned .It seems Ghadaffi had been right all along and like fools the whole world refused to listen to his words.Now we must suffer the consequences and only God knows where it will end .The West needs to be aware that the entire world is watching this current Libyan experiment and we are all wondering why it is that the West never seemed to have Learned any lessons from the Iraqi fiasco.Why should you make the same mistake twice unless in actual fact it was never a mistake but a deliberate policy ploy,which implies that there is an element of duplicity at play here that belies the seemingly good intentions of the west towards the the developing world .
Ghadafi warned anyone who cared to listen that his country would descend into anarchy without an orderly transition but no one listened and the fallout is what we are about to see explode in our faces .
The painful part of the whole issue is the hope that the developing world had in the west and that they would get this one right since they had all the facts on ground as well as anyone else including Ghadafi. And so the west would not knowingly allow chaos to descend on Libya but events seem to be disabusing everyone of that illusion.
To further make matters worse the West again seems to want the Syria go down the same road.
So the playbook the West seems to want here is a chaotic middle east and it beggars my imagination what good can come for anybody under such a scenario.
A chaotic mid-east might just be a somalia on a much larger scale with the concomitant strain it will place on the global economy wrt such issues as piracy ,lawlessness etc.
The other casualty will be the tremendous negative impact of the West no longer being viewed as an icon for human advancement and progress but as a self serving clique of opportunists with predatory and very short term policy makers.

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JUSTIN J. SANCHEZ

7:47 PM ET

January 29, 2012

It's always about

It's always about oil...
super bowl 2012

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DITTYGIRL

1:52 AM ET

January 28, 2012

And what we are seeing now is

And what we are seeing now is normative pislam in action. It should come as no surprise to anyone who knows how eetkamerstoelen met armleuning they behave.

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GHAZI

4:18 AM ET

January 28, 2012

Wrong number?

I am bewildered in reading your article at seeing stats, and inside information, that would have led me to believe that in supporting democracies in these Arab nations, you would have at least succeded in your public projections.

None of that, from Libya to Tunisia and now Syria, you are trying to sell us a sense of democracy in which you are clearly out of depth, additionally by receiving Ghannoushi and hailing him as the liberator of Tunisia you have succeeded in alienating US foreign Policy with the Tunisian General Public and creating a strong resistance to US led movements in a country that was traditionally very pro western.

I do wonder who makes your policies or suggests your awards, and if they have ever read a small 2 page transcript of our modern history. I doubt it. Worse, is that in doing so, your efforts have just counter reacted in many ways than one, be jeopardising US foreign policy in the region, and the onslaught for Syria will be one to watch as it stalemates into the ever persistent array of deflection techniques used by the regime.

So, you ask where do we go from here? Like myself, the US boasts a wide selection of individuals who have been schooled and brought up in the US, an invaluable resource that not only you fail to tap, but that you managed to alienate through your recent exercise of hocus pocus, in trying to tell us Ghannoushi is the solution to our social problems, Tunisians will not accept Charia, it never ruled in our country and never will. And from the recent statements of his party members, I doubt any of you would look upon any of their plans favourably had you decided to come and live in our country.

With all interests looked after, Tunisia is the only country that can make the transition without any religious zealots and you seem to have forgotten it. Make it an ally instead of making it a country where US policy is regarded as threatening and unconstructive.

Ghazi Azzabi

Dubai

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ARABIAN KNIGHTS

6:12 PM ET

January 28, 2012

? ?????

Oh, come on.... Did you not know, the Muslim Brotherhood are a 'secular heterogeneous bunch'- that has always loved America and the West..... they dont have ? ????? as a motto on their emblem- nothing to do with whom they define as 'the enemy of God,' surely it is not the West... That is all just propaganda..... There are no Al-Qaida among the freedom seeking rebels in Libya, Abdul Hakeem Belhaj and his thugs are just a factious character made up by Qathafi.... There is no danger in America helping its worst enemies take over oil rich countries, cant you see how successful Iraq has been?

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ARABIAN KNIGHTS

11:54 AM ET

January 28, 2012

Al-Qaida

I find it amazing that, when the mess in Iraq has not been cleaned up yet, we go into yet another country, 'shock and awe it' to oblivion, and expect that our mis-named allies who 'seek democracy and freedom' turn out to be a bunch of murderous thugs- even worse, open members of Al-Qaida.... It is impossible to say that the the administration did not have full knowledge of the fact that the people it was supporting on the ground were sworn enemies of the United States, but went ahead anyway assisting them to take over yet another oil rich country. The first time we did this was in Iraq, where Dawa party was/is a sworn enemy of the United States and most other countries in the Middle East, look how that turned out.... Most US soldiers coming home in body bags in the past few years were killed by allies of the Iraqi government- Shia militias, not Al-Qaida......
To anyone with half a brain, the rebels in Libya, were composed mostly of the LIFG closely associated with Al-Qaida if not completely one and the same (Abu Yahya Al-Libi's brother, #3 in AQ, was among the leaders of the rebels, the late Ateeyat Allah, #4 in AQ, was also a member of the LIFG) The UNSCR did not define the enemy, or the "Libyan People" or who exactly NATO was protecting among the Libyan people, and from whom.... The administration used American tax dollars to support terrorism, and kill the head of state of a foreign country, I am still waiting for anyone to cry "Illegal' and hold someone accountable...But that did not happen after we invaded Iraq, and will probably not happen today...
The war in Libya has just begun... Our current foreign policy seems to be allowing our most virulent enemies to take over countries that were our allies (for example the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria, Yemen and Egypt,) regardless of how much we hated our allies as they were not 'just like us'- that included Qathafi, who became 'our friend' in 2003- and disarmed.
Another serious outcome the administration has failed to see, is how countries such as Iran, North Korea, and even Pakistan view Libya's disarming- if Qathafi disarmed, gave up his weapons of mass destruction, and this is his fate, why in the world would any of these countries make a deal with us and give up their weapons programs....
No crying over split milk today... the war in the Middle East has just started...

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COBILOU

4:40 PM ET

January 30, 2012

Arabian

Your actual knowledge of Al Qaeda's doings and depth of influence in any foreign country is not compellingly explained. You know who is Al Qaeda in Libya and how in depth their role in events in Libya are going to become a wining formula for them because...I doubt a former intelligence operative in Libya for the last ten years whose #1 job was to learn the answers to those questions could give certain answers to my questions about. And I would wage a lot money that you familiarity with Al Qaeda's operations in Libya are not even remotely close to a long term intell operative's. So you are an armchair Heritage Foundation-type "realist" faking the "authority" with which you are describing events on the ground and tying up the outcomes expected with neat little bows. I am not sure I know how things will sort themselves out in Libya over the next 5-10 years, but I am not overly worried a new Iran or Sudan or Afghanistan (with extensive ties to Al Qaeda) is about to emerge. One can make the case that once a long-time tyrant turns over control to his son and makes their tyranny heredity, one may be headed for a very long period of instability for all western governments (e.g., N. Korea, Syria). So helping the Libyan people oust Gaddafi may still be a net gain for the people of Libya. I am willing to bet that after a 40-year history of an Islamic republic in Iran, there are not a whole lot of Muslim countries that can must a majority of voter support for being ruled by Islamic political leaders. The Egyptians may want some "pro-Islamic" state policies, but the majority do not want to replace the military and securlar secret police with an Islamic secret police. There are a lot of class based political cleavages in Egypt, Iraq, the Palestinian Territories, etc that ought to prevent an "Islamic" revolutionary party sweeping into majority power in most countries.

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ANNABEL H

8:45 PM ET

January 29, 2012

So sad for the Libyans...but why are we surprised?

What a sad time for the Libyans, it seems like their country is descending into anarchy with no organised authoritative party to bring them the peace and democracy they have waited for so long. This situation is not new and is not uncommon in the developing world and it will take them a long time to stabilize. In the meantime we can’t act surprised to see different factions taking out their best bbq grill to grill up a storm every now and again, painfully often with subsequent casualties.

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SANDVIKM

1:41 AM ET

January 30, 2012

Tribalism

I am by no means and expert on Libya but my impression was always the Gadhafi ruled by uniting the biggest tribes and leaving the others to fend for themseves. Those tribes have now taken over and want the best for their tribe. That is what we are seeing now. If they ever manage to distribute power and profits between themselves and old foes this goverment may yet survive. If not I fear we will return to infighting possibly ending in civil war or cesession.

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LISA JANE

9:41 AM ET

January 30, 2012

Objective no1

Make no mistake this war was all about controlling his oil should relations with other oil producing nations fall apart.

There are no doubts about this. Although the USA and EU didn´t get much oil from Libya anyway it seems the main factor was that is was becoming a major supplier to China. It is all about stopping China..nothing about protecting poor innocent civilians in Libya or Syria or wherever. If this was the case Mugabe and others would have gone ages ago.

Lisa Jane

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TOMMYER

9:43 AM ET

February 2, 2012

Ghadafi

Ghadafi warned anyone who cared to listen that his country would descend into anarchy without an orderly transition but no one listened and the fallout is what we are about to see explode in our faces. garment steamer review

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MCMCMC

9:33 PM ET

February 4, 2012

Ghadafi warned anyone who

Ghadafi warned anyone who cared to listen that his country would descend into anarchy without an orderly transition but no one listened and the fallout is what we are about to see explode in our faces .
The painful part of the whole issue is the hope that the developing world had in the west and that they would get this one right since they had all the porno facts on ground as well as anyone else including Ghadafi. And so the west would not knowingly allow chaos to descend on Libya but events seem to be disabusing everyone of that illusion.

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