We Need to Talk to Iran, But How?

Thirty-two years of sanctions and bluster haven't worked. It's time to try something different.

BY JOHN LIMBERT | FEBRUARY 7, 2012

It was easy enough to miss amid all the chest-thumping, threats, and talk of imminent strikes filling the airways, but last week, Iran signaled its willingness to restart talks with the P5+1 (the five U.N. Security Council members plus Germany) about its nuclear program. "We hope the P5+1 meeting will be held in near future," Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said, as a group of inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) toured the country.

The last round of such talks ended inconclusively in Istanbul in January 2011, and it has taken more than a year to get close to a new meeting. Although no date has been set for the new talks, it's not too early to begin planning for how to make them more productive than past negotiations. Here are a few steps that could put us on a road more promising than the current ominous exchanges.

1. DON'T UNDERESTIMATE THE RISK OF MISCALCULATION

It is tempting to dismiss the current talk of war as bluff and bluster. Although there is certainly much hot air in the current talk of Iran's closing the Strait of Hormuz or of imminent Israeli attacks on Iran, its very volume and frequency should make us worry. Each threat, each warning, each "red line" declared threatens to trap the parties in rhetorical corners. Even worse, a party might start believing its own defiant rhetoric and fail to distinguish between real and imaginary threats.

Complicating the issue is the fact that the United States and Iran have almost never spoken officially to each other in more than 30 years. Diplomats do not meet; officials do not talk; and military officials to not communicate. Instead of contact in which each side can listen to the other, take the measure of personalities, and look for underlying interests behind public positions, each side has imputed the worst possible motives to the other, creating an adversary both superhuman (devious, powerful, and implacably hostile) and subhuman (violent, irrational, and unthinking).

This mutual demonization -- born of fear and contempt -- raises the risk that a simple confrontation will lead to miscalculation and full-scale conflict. Put simply, today, in the absence of direct communication, it would be very difficult to de-escalate a potential incident in the Persian Gulf or Afghanistan. With each side assuming the worst about the other, a minor incident could lead both sides into military and political disaster.

FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP/Getty Images

 SUBJECTS:
 

John Limbert, a former hostage in Iran, is professor of Middle Eastern studies at the U.S. Naval Academy. In August 2010 he left the U.S. State Department, where he had served as deputy assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs.

GHG88

3:17 PM ET

February 7, 2012

logical solution

Everyone respects solutions unbiased jurors make in American judicial system, so why not send out qualified citizens to represent our country (U.S.), instead of bullheaded politicians. The citizens, without "a chip on their shoulders" could stand a better chance at reaching a solution.

 

FUNKEDUP143

3:59 PM ET

February 7, 2012

Totally Agree

Increasingly it seems that the top brass in charge of US Foreign Policy exerts little concern for peace. Perhaps this was destined to be the case after a decade plus of being on a 24 / 7 War footing brought to you by CNN.

When are we going to see an administration that focuses on the vast majority of the poulation's preference for peace - or, maybe I'm being optimistic on that need for peace.

"Gracchus: Fear and wonder, a powerful combination.
Falco: You really think people are going to be seduced by that?
Gracchus: I think he knows what Rome is. Rome is the mob. Conjure magic for them and they'll be distracted. Take away their freedom and still they'll roar. The beating heart of Rome is not the marble of the senate, it's the sand of the coliseum. He'll bring them death - and they will love him for it. "

Gladiator

 

SPOOD

4:04 PM ET

February 7, 2012

Send it to arbitration!

Diplomacy by legal dispute resolution. That would be kinda interesting.

Impossible to make binding, but definitely something creative. I like it.

Of course this assumes both parties are willing to abide by the decisions of whomever the adjudicating body is, but I can at least pretend that Iran would at least be reasonable and honest.

 

SABABA03

6:53 PM ET

February 8, 2012

a matter of mutual expectation

Your theory and proposition is fine and dandy between rational people who believe in rule of secular law - not bunch of religious nut heads, who believe in Armageddon, as way for their 7th century mind set and brand of salvation.

These Mullahs couldn't care less to the western system of laws and justice.

You are driven by secular laws. They are driven by fanatic religious laws.

 

JOHNBOY4546

4:23 PM ET

February 7, 2012

Oh, please, spare me

"For Americans, the concern is technical and legal matters such as the amounts of low- and high-enriched uranium, as well as the type and number of centrifuges in Iran's possession."

There is no "legal" matter there.

If Iran wants centrifuges - of any sort - then it is LEGALLY entitled to have them.

It Iran wants to enrich uranium - to any level - then it is LEGALLY entitled to do that.

It says so, right there in the text of the NPT.

What Iran is not allowed to do is to divert any of that uranium away from its declared nuclear program and manufacture a bomb out of it, and to assuage that fear all that "the west" needs to do is to induce Iran to sign the Additional Protocols.

 

GHG88

4:26 PM ET

February 7, 2012

You missed the point

I never said it was a legal matter. I am just looking at a proven method of solving issues with discussions not being held at standstill by ego's. You completely missed the point. That is why I said they should be "qualified".

 

JOHNBOY4546

7:44 PM ET

February 7, 2012

No, you missed the quote

What I am objecting to is contained in THIS quote:
"For Americans, the concern is technical and legal matters such as the amounts of low- and high-enriched uranium, as well as the type and number of centrifuges in Iran's possession."

The amounts of uranium, their level of enrichment, and the technique used to enrich them are not "legal" matters. The correct word is "political"

American has concerns with Iran's nuclear program, sure, but those concerns are POLITICAL in nature, precisely because the text of the NPT explicitely states that all states have a LEGAL right to enrich uranium.

And if Iran has that right - and it does - then no other country has any legal right to tell Iran how it goes about doing that.

If Iran wants to enrich uranium to the point where the damn country it is completely buried beneath a mountain of highly-enriched uranium then Iran is legally entitled to do exactly that, and nothing in the NPT says that it can't.

As far as the text of the NPT is concerned as it does not divert any of that Vast Pile Of Uranium into a nuclear missile then Iran is legally entitled to do whatever the hell it wants with its uranium ore, and if any other country has a problem with that then that's a POLITICAL issue, not a LEGAL issue.

Honestly, people use words like they were channelling the ghost of Humpty Dumpty: "When I use a word it means exactly what I want it to mean, neither more nor less".

 

HASS

9:45 PM ET

February 7, 2012

"nukes" are just a pretext

No, the nuclear issue really isn't the matter in dispute. That has always been just a pretext. Not only is Iran's nuclear program perfectly legal, and not only does our own intelligence say that there's no indication that Iran wants nuclear weapons, the fact is that Iran has offered many compromises on its nuclear program that went well beyond its obligations under the NPT, to address even the hypothetical chance that it could secretly build nukes (Iran for example offered to open its enrichment program to joint participation with the US and to cap enrichment -- no other country has agreed to that.) The US has however refused to even acknowledge these offers because the last thing the US wants is to resolve the nuclear issue with Iran while leaving the regime in power. ISRAEL (whose name is not mentioned in this article by Limber) demands that the US push for regime change, and the nuclear issue is a pretext just like "WMDs in Iraq" was a pretext. No amount of inspections or compromises by Iran will placate Israel's demand

 

JOHNBOY4546

4:39 PM ET

February 8, 2012

Holy Smoke!

"The International Atomic Energy Agency issued a critical report Tuesday saying that it has "serious concerns" about Iran's nuclear program and has obtained "credible" information that the Islamic republic may be developing nuclear weapons."

Does anyone know why the IAEA uses a word such as "concerned"?
Anyone?

That's right: the IAEA actually doesn't have a mandate to look beyond the issue of the (non)diversion of nuclear material, and so it can't actually point to anything that Iran has done that has violated any agreement between Iran and the IAEA.

So the IAEA is merely "concerned".

It is a meaningless phrase, and it has been uttered by a USA puppet in reference to "credible" information that has come from.... the USA.

How. Convenient.

"The agency said it had information suggesting Iran had carried out tests "relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device"."

Q: And where does this information come from?
A: From the CIA and Mossad.

Q: Any independent confirmation of that information?
A: None, which is why Amano's precedessor would not include it in IAEA reports.

Q: So why has Amano included it?
A: The USA shoe-horned him into that job for that very purpose.

"The UN Security Council has ordered Iran to stop enrichment. Why?"

Because of "concerns".

Q: Is the UNSC entitled to do that?
A: No, according to the UN Charter it can only pass ChVII resolutions when it determines that there is "a threat to the peace".

Q: Has the UNSC announced such a determination?
A: No, never.

Q: Why not?
A: It can't, because the only "evidence" it has is.... Amano's "concerns", curtesy of the CIA and Mossad.

"Because the technology used to enrich uranium to the level needed for nuclear power can also be used to enrich it to the higher level needed for a nuclear explosion."

Yeah, annnnnnnd? That statement happens to be true of *every* country that has a nuclear power program.

Therefore you really need to explain to me what Iran is violating by enriching uranium and, so far, all you have done is point me to Amano's "concerns".

Excuse me for being underwhelmed.

"Iran hid an enrichment programme for 18 years, so the Security Council says that until Iran's peaceful intentions can be fully established, it should stop enrichment and other nuclear activities."

Your first assertion is incorrect, your second assertion goes beyond the mandate of the UNSC.

"Under international law, an order from the Security Council is held to supersede rights granted by other international organisations."

If you actually bother to read the text of the NPT then you will see that Iran's right to a nuclear power program exists outside of the NPT i.e. it is a pre-existing norm of international law, and neither the NPT nor the IAEA nor the UNSC has any "right" to demand that Iran put a halt to that program.

Or, in short: almost everything that you think you know about this issue is factually incorrect.

 

AARKY

9:27 PM ET

February 8, 2012

All the Wild Saber rattling

JohnBoy-Excellent observations-That IAEA report must be the one from early November, 2011. The best answer to shoot holes in that report was from the Christian Science Monitor,
"Iran Nuclear Report: Why it May Not Be a Game Changer After All", (Nov 09, 2011) and "IAEA's Nuclear Scientist Never Worked on Weapons" (IPS Nov 09, 2011).

 

AARKY

9:30 PM ET

February 8, 2012

Declare War on AIPAC trolls

Amos-when we see you insulting, we know we will then see all the talking points from IAPAC, WINEP, and the Israeli Likkudnik line.

 

DELTA22

3:29 AM ET

February 8, 2012

-

I don't think a country that makes threats to another member of the international community can defend itself by claiming it wants respect and dignity. If Iran wants to be respected, it needs to play by the rules rather than being the menace to international security that it is today.

 

FUNKEDUP143

9:37 AM ET

February 8, 2012

Threats vs Actions

As opposed to "Actions" thinly veiled as "Sanctions".

Sanctions that impose real physical costs in the form of inflation on Iranian society.

What do we call countries do that because it's kind of like handing Iran the rope.

 

HASS

11:04 AM ET

February 8, 2012

the US threatened Iran

Not only has the US explicitly threatened Iran with nuclear first strikes in violation of international law as well as US obligations under the "Negative Security Assurance" -- the US provided chemical weapons to Iraq, responsible for the deaths of over 60,000 Iranians, and even tried to shift the blame for Saddam's gassing of the Kurds onto Iran. So who is not "playing by the rules"?

 

SABABA03

7:10 PM ET

February 8, 2012

why Arabs Muslims also object Iran.

Israel aside. Why Iran's other Arab & Muslim countries (beside Syria) are fearful of nuclear Iran?.

You are defending bunch of religious fanatics in Tehran, who are hell bent of converting the entire ME & Gulf region into one happy religious nuts, controlled by these Mullahs. The problem for them is, the Yahuds are standing in the way, and need to be removed.

 

NICKGP

12:15 PM ET

February 8, 2012

Talk with Iran.

Politicians are running amok speaking wildly about surgical strikes or total war without the slightest considerations or consequences. We need to talk with the Iranians quickly before the chest thumping and insanity of war infection afflicts us all. We need to speak with The Iranians without getting approval, guidance or the acquiescence of the israelis, and any foolish talk of a surgical strike or the more insane talk of war, be called out as the insanity that it is. Iran is a nation of over 80 million people, who, would overlook every difference they have with the mullahs or amadenadjai and unite, with the most catastrophic consequences for israel and the U.S.. The U.S. is still at war in Iraq and Afghanistan regardless of any nonsense about the victorious end in Iraq and the soon to be victorious withdrawal from Afghanistan and can ill-afford another. Iran is not Lebanon, Syria, Iraq or Afghanistan. We are in need of Pragmatic Diplomatic Statesmanship and the understanding of American strategic interests, not israeli. We have been a conscious participant to israeli intransigence for any peace or solution to the crises in the mid. east for the last 40 plus years, This American foreign policy "ironclad" generosity has been taken advantage and dangerously exploited by israel, has nearly bankrupted our country with no peace and today the politicians are insanely talking and beating war drums, and declaring, no steering away no changing form the foolishness of this policy we've been following. The window of opportunity is there to talk, but politicians who are indebted to lobbyists or Gallop polls will not do it, only realist Statesmen will, and they are needed now more than ever.

 

JOHNBOY4546

4:50 PM ET

February 8, 2012

I do love how nobody quotes the Khartoum Declaration

Nobody does; it is always paraphrased.

You'd almost think there was a reason behind that reticence.....

Oh, wait, there is a reason why: the text of the declaration clearly says that the "three no's" are in pursuit of The End Of This Israeli Occupation i.e. unless/until Israel agrees to end the occupation then those "three no's" would remain in force.

But once Israel agrees to end the occupation......

"Third, the Arab Heads of State agreed on unifying their efforts in joint political and diplomatic action at the international level to ensure the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the occupied Arab territory This is within the framework of the basic Arab commitment, which entails non-recognition of Israel, no conciliation nor negotiation with her and the upholding of the rights of the Palestinian people to their land. "

Seems pretty reasonable to me i.e. land for peace: agree to end the occupation of Arab land and then - and only then - will we thaw.

Which is not at all the same thing as saying We Will Never Thaw.

 

SABABA03

7:19 PM ET

February 8, 2012

Israel bankrupting US

A. In case you are not aware of it Israel IS a vital to our strategic interest in that part of the wold.

b. Israel total GDP is $245 Billion. How the hell it can bankrupt an economy of $15,700 Billion?

 

SABABA03

7:32 PM ET

February 8, 2012

Khartum Conference - Full text

Khartoum Declaration, Sepember 1, 1967 (Full Text)
The eight Arab Heads of State who attended the Khartoum Conference on Aug. 29-Sept. 1, 1967, were from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Jordan, Lebanon, Kuwait, Iraq and Yemen. Morocco, Libya, Tunisia and Algeria were represented by their Prime Ministers. Syria, who did not attend, was represented by her foreign minister, Dr. Ibrahim Makhous, at the Foreign Ministers’ Conference which preceded the Summit and drew up its agenda. The Palestine Liberation Organization was represented by Ahmed Shukairy, but the PLO did not sign on to the Declaration, as it disagreed with it.

The Declaration follows:
First, the Conference affirmed Arab solidarity and the unification of Arab joint action in a cordial atmosphere of coordination and conciliation.
The Heads of State reaffirmed their commitment to the Charter of Arab Solidarity issued at the Third Arab Summit Conference in Casablanca.

Second, the Conference affirmed the necessity of concerted joint efforts in the elimination of all traces of aggression on the basis that the recovery of all occupied Arab territory is the joint responsibility of all Arab countries.

Third, the Arab Heads of State agreed on unifying their efforts in joint political and diplomatic action at the international level TO ENSURE THE WITHDRAWAL OF ISRAELI FORCES FROM THE OCCUPIED ARAB TERRITORY This is within the framework of the basic Arab commitment, which entails NON-RECOGNITION OF ISRAEL, NO CONCILIATION NOR NEGOTIATION with her and the upholding of the rights of the Palestinian people to their land.

Fourth, the Ministers of Finance, Economy and Oil recommended the possibility of using oil as a weapon hi the struggle. The Summit Conference, after careful study, sees that oil export could be used as a positive weapon which would be directed toward the strengthening of the economies of the Arab countries that suffered directly from the aggression.

Fifth, the Conference approved the proposal submitted by Kuwait to establish an Arab Economic and Social Development Bank in accordance with the recommendations of the Arab Finance, Economy and Oil Ministers’ Conference which met in Baghdad.

Sixth, the Conference decided that it is necessary to take all steps to consolidate military preparedness to face the consequences of the situation.

Seventh, the Conference decided to speed up the liquidation of foreign bases in the Arab countries.

(by "Arab territory", they mean the entire state of Israel).

 

JOHNBOY4546

7:59 PM ET

February 8, 2012

Honestly, some people just can't read diplomatese.

"As the text clearly says, they want to eliminate the effects of "Israeli aggression" within the frame work of "no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, and no negotiations." "

That part is correct i.e. according to the Khartoum Declaration the Israeli government can forget about dangling the occupied territories in front of the Arabs to force them to change their publically-stated policy towards Israel.

According to Khartoum the Israelis must
FIRST agree that it is handing back that territory, and
THEN that existing Arab policy is up for grabs.....

That's a perfectly legitimate stance for those Arabs to take.

"Well, That pretty much leaves only one other option...violence and war. "

Nooooooo, that claim is demonstrably untrue, precisely because those same Arab states demonstrated the exact reverse in the two months that followed that conference.

Note this date: the Khartoum Conference was September 1, 1967.

Now, consider this.....
Q: Was any subsequest attempt made to end that occupation that:
a) Did not involve recognizing/peacemaking/negotiating with Israel, and
b) Did not involve "violence and war" to force such a withdrawal?

A: Why, yes. Yes, there was.

UN Security Council Resolution 242, dated November 22, 1967.

That resolution called upon the "Withdrawal of Israel armed forces from territories occupied in the recent conflict", and at no stage during the tortuous drafting of that resolution did any Arab country either recognize/peacemake/negotiate with Israel.

So there we have it: a DIPLOMATIC attempt to end that occupation, supported by all the Arab states, and not a single reference to the threat of "violence and war" to achieve that end.

How terribly inconvenient for your argument, heh?

The Arabs wanted their territory back, and they were dangling the possibly of "peace, recognition and negotiation" to induce Israel to give it back.

Israel wanted "peace, recognition and negotiation", and was dangling the possibility of giving that territory back to induce the Arabs to accept them into the fold.

UNSC Resolution 242 was giving equal weight to both "principles" (as, indeed, it should).

Q: So what went wrong?
A: Israel started furiously colonizing the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, the Sinai Desert and the Golan Heights which is, ahem, something of a giveaway regarding their real intentions.

 

AARKY

9:47 PM ET

February 8, 2012

War by Proxy

Excellent thoughts-NickGP--One of the first things the US could do is make certain we keep all the Carrier battle groups out of the Persian Gulf. Even go further and pull our Navy out of it's port in Bahrain. They were there because of Iraq and the only thing that would keep them there is the chip on our political shoulder toward Iran.

 

ROM_MIK

5:09 PM ET

February 8, 2012

Who has attacked more countries since 1979????

Israel attacked Iraq in 1981, bombing the power station at Osirik, claiming it was a clandestine weapons factory. Subsequent examination of the ruins following the 2003 invasion proved Israel had lied. In 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon. This led to the Massacres at Sabra and Shatilla. In February 2003 Israel staged incursions into Gaza and Nablus. In September 2007 Israel bombed Syria, again insisting they were destroying a clandestine weapons laboratory. Again there was no evidence to support Israel's claims. In 2006, Israel attacked Lebanon, killing 1200, mostly civilians, several UN observers, and littering the landscape with land mines on their way out. In February 2008 Israel again raided Gaza, killing over 100. HAMAS agreed to a cease fire and kept it for 6 months until November 4, when Israel again attacked without warning, killing 6 HAMAS members, and launching operation CAST LEAD. 1300 Gazans, mostly civilians, were killed. Israel lost 13 soldiers. Violations of international law included the use of White Phosphorus incendiary bombs against civilians and non-military targets. The United Nations investigated, but Israel refused to cooperate. In May 2010, Israel attacked an international aid flotilla bringing food and medical supplies to Gaza in international waters. 9 people were murdered including an American from New York.

In the same period of time, the United States, officially a secular nation but predominantly Christian, attacked El Salvador (1980), Libya (1981), Sinai (1982), Lebanon (1982 1983), Egypt (1983), Grenada (1983), Honduras (1983), Chad (1983), Persian Gulf (1984), Libya (1986) , Bolivia (1986), Iran (1987), Persian Gulf (1987), Kuwait (1987), Iran (1988), Honduras (1988), Panama (1988), Libya (1989), Panama (1989), Colombia, Bolivia, and Peru (1989), Philippines (1989), Panama (1989-1990), Liberia (1990), Saudi Arabia (1990), Iraq (1991), Zaire (1991), Sierra Leone (1992), Somalia (1992), Bosnia-Herzegovina (1993 to present), Macedonia (1993), Haiti (1994), Macedonia (1994), Bosnia (1995), Liberia (1996), Central African Republic (1996), Albania (1997), Congo/Gabon (1997), Sierra Leon (1997), Cambodia (1997), Iraq (1998), Guinea/Bissau (1998), Kenya/Tanzania (1998 to 1999), Afghanistan/Sudan (1998), Liberia (1998), East Timor (1999), Serbia (1999), Sierra Leon (2000), Yemen (2000), East Timor (2000), Afghanistan (2001 to present), Yemen (2002), Philippines (2002) , Cote d'Ivoire (2002), Iraq (2003 to present), Liberia (2003), Georgia/Djibouti (2003), Haiti (2004), Georgia/Djibouti/Kenya/Ethiopia/Yemen/Eritrea War on Terror (2004), Pakistan drone attacks (2004 to present), Somalia (2007), South Ossetia/Georgia (2008), Syria (2008), Yemen (2009), Haiti (2010), etc. etc. etc. etc.

Iran defended themselves from Iraq who was armed by the west.

 

SABABA03

6:44 PM ET

February 8, 2012

The art of Duplicity.

Mr. Limbert.
No need to think of the 5 elements. All we need is to get familiar with one word in the Iranian cultural, which this regime uses it with maximum sinister.

TARROF (pronounced Ta a rof)

Although, this word means common courtesy in the Farsi language, It also contains lots of elements of duplicity and elaborate game of pretentious posture.

Pretend to be concerned about your welfare. Pretend to be your best friend - such that, unless one isf familiar with Ta'arrof, you never sure if the guy is telling the truth or lying.

This is the tactics used by the Mullah to delay, pacify, their opponents - until it is too late. The gullible west (and seems Mr. Libmber as well) seem to believe the Mullahs

If anyone truly believes these Mullahs are being genuine with their dealing with those whom they call "Infidels", must be a gullible and naive - unfortunately Mr. Limbers seem to be one of them.

 

GENERAL CUSTER

9:47 PM ET

February 8, 2012

Rafsanjani & Khamenei

Imagine if the Republicans in America align themselves with a foreign power, China, to defeat their rival , Democrats in their internal rivalry for policy direction. This is happening in Iran with Rafsanjani faction signaling the west to increase the pressure so that they can defeat their rivals in Iran.

Iran nuclear enrichment is under complete supervision of IAEA and the sanctions are an attempt to create instability in Iran to overthrow the Khamenei regime and bring Rafsanjani faction to power. Iran's Khamenei is very weak politically in Iran and fully aware of the coordination with foreign powers, but is unable to liquidate the powerful rival. It is similar to Yeltsin and Gorbachev game before the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Rafsanjani faction is allied with Saudi, Israeli, British, and American neo-cons. Khamenei is allied with the Chinese and Russia and wants to steer Iran in that direction.

America is making a huge mistake to side with one faction in Iran against another faction. I hope American policy makers can understand that China , and Israel both love to see America in war with Iran for the next 10 years.

Today, Rafsanjani is forbidden to travel outside Iran, stripped out of his official powers.. Former president Khatami is also forbidden to leave Iran. Moussavi is under house arrest. Larijani brothers are sitting on the fence and waiting to see which way the wind blows. Most of the former Pasdars are in business and hate to see it destroyed. For the last 30 years, the Rafsanjani faction has squandered all the resources for their personal gains and now Khamenei is using it against them.

Khamenei is not pursuing personal wealth gains contrary to Rafsanjani faction that has pillaged the national wealth for the last 30 years even worse than the Pahlavi regime. Khamenei knows if he does not kick Rafsanjani out, there will be a revolution in Iran to get rid of the corrupt regime legacy of Rafsanjani.