Al Qaeda's Merger

Al Qaeda has joined forces with its Somali cousin, the insurgent-terrorist group al-Shabab.

BY J.M. BERGER | FEBRUARY 14, 2012

Hundreds of Somalis gathered on the outskirts of Mogadishu on Feb. 13 to celebrate the union of al Qaeda with its Somali cousin, the insurgent-terrorist group al-Shabab. But the mainstream media hasn't quite figured out what to make of the news, first announced last week, that the two groups had officially merged.

Many reporters were already accustomed to thinking of them as the same group. Others grasped at straws to fit the news into the "al Qaeda is losing" narrative -- dominant ever since Osama bin Laden was killed last May.

They might have done better with a simple headline: "Dozens of Americans Join al Qaeda."

The disturbing truth is that al-Shabab has had more success recruiting Americans than any of al Qaeda's other franchises. The newest official addition to the terrorist network's family includes around 40 Americans, in addition to dozens more involved in support activities on U.S. soil, as well as those with more casual connections to the United States. That support network dwarfs the American presence in "al Qaeda Central," which was largely terminated after the 9/11 attacks.

Al-Shabab's numbers and its extensive support network mean al Qaeda is now better positioned to carry out strikes on the U.S. homeland than at any point in the last 10 years. The majority of al-Shabab's American recruits are ethnic Somalis -- first- and second-generation immigrants with still-fresh ties to their ancestral home -- but the group also enjoys significant support from radicalized Muslim converts from diverse backgrounds, who are attracted by its efforts to carve out a domain ruled by a harsh interpretation of Islamic law.

The media's confusion about al-Shabab's relationship with al Qaeda is not surprising. The murkiness surrounding definitions of al Qaeda and its franchises can make it difficult, even for experts, to sort out what it means to be a member of the group, how they should be distinguished from a mere ally, and how much weight these different incarnations should carry. Once the definitions are resolved, you then run smack into the data problem. Estimates of the size and composition of jihadi groups abound, usually sourced to anonymous officials of various governments, but hard numbers are fleeting.

But incomplete data is better than no data, and what we do know suggests that al-Shabab's merger with the most infamous terrorist organization in history should be a source of concern. According to our best estimates, as of today there are now more Americans who consider themselves part of al Qaeda than ever before.

Some background: It's a commonly held myth that the number of Americans ensnared by jihadi ideology has risen sharply since the 9/11 attacks. Although their ranks have certainly increased, most discussions of this problem overestimate how many Americans are currently involved in jihadism, dramatically underestimate the number who got involved before 9/11, and conflate all jihadi activity with al Qaeda.

Since its founding more than 23 years ago, about 25 U.S. citizens have been documented as members or full-time employees of al Qaeda Central -- the organization that attacked the United States on Sept. 11, 2001 -- according to court records, intelligence reports, and al Qaeda's internal documents and propaganda videos. If one uses a broader brush, another 25 or so Americans received significant financial or logistical support from al Qaeda Central while serving as members of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad or Gamaa Islamiya.

Al Qaeda today is no longer a single entity, but a collection of franchises. Although each franchise is focused on a different local scene, they coordinate with and take direction from the remnants of al Qaeda Central. They are parts of a whole. And with the addition of al-Shabab, the whole just became significantly more American.

Darren McCollester/Getty Images

 SUBJECTS: TERRORISM, AFRICA, ARAB WORLD
 

KBC

1:44 AM ET

February 15, 2012

Americans have to decide

which is the bigger threat. Radical Islam or China.
Last time it was a question between communism and fascism. The west decided communism and Nazism wreaked havoc. Communism became a threat but it never caused the damage compared to Fascists in the Cold War. Even when choosing between enemies, the better enemy is the more civilized one.

 

MORROWROSANNA78519476@YAHOO.COM

9:44 AM ET

February 15, 2012

adv

my co-worker's mother makes $83 every hour on the laptop. She has been fired for 6 months but last month her paycheck was $8116 just working on the laptop for a few hours. Read more on this web site... makecash16.com

 

BEINGTHERE

3:43 PM ET

February 15, 2012

Why hasn't anyone noticed?? Some Americans are paying attention

Is it because our so-called political and military leadership have been fighting for
* Peace, justice and the American Way
* So that others can enjoy the democratic freedoms we do
* So that our nation will be secure and our kids can grow up safe

Fill in your own worn buzz words, tropes or John McCainisms. Multiply those by one indifferent president, two misguided ones, a greedy, ambitious general more interested in how the war was being framed to media, a Security Military Complex that has little to no accountability, a once-capable but overburdened Sec.of Defense who wanted only to retire and get the hell away from it all, and a Congress who just don't have the time to pay attention to little things like foreign policy. They'd rather fight each other.

The U.S. had two failed bomb attempts on our soil during the past 15-18 months.One of the attempts was by a U.S. resident with ties to al Qaeda or an offshoot. Both were foiled by average citizens. Our troops were fighting in Afghanistan killing those Taliban "so that our nation could be secure." We know this to be true because of all the press releases issued by Gen. David Petraeus's apparently extensive communications force.

So after a decade of war, just like that, we're done with the Middle East (except for the drumbeats to "get" Iran) and now we're turning to the Asia Pacific Rim. Old Man bin Laden is dead, so we've declared the terrorist threat behind us. Well, no, but ... the truth seems to be that the war in Afghanistan was smoke and mirrors in the first place. Michael Hastings has written a riveting book called "The Operators" which kicks butt and names names, but it probably isn't the definitive book that answers the question: What was the Afghan War about? If al Qaeda is still spreading, popping up around the world, including our homeland, then why are we still in Afghanistan?

 

URGELT

3:45 PM ET

February 15, 2012

Remnants?

I've noticed that the media likes to characterize al Queda in the post-bin Laden age as "remnants."

Which implies what, exactly? That al Queda is defeated? Unable to operate? Unable to recruit?

HP wasn't called a "remnant" corporation by Foreign Policy when Mark Hurd left it. HP, of course, isn't defeated. It isn't unable to operate. It isn't unable to recruit.

al Queda isn't defeated either, though, do you see? It's still operating. It's still recruiting.

There is only one reason for using the term "remnants," and that's to plant an impression in the public's mind that the "war on terror" has in some way succeeded. But absurdly, in this article, this idea of a defeated al Queda - which validates the effort and expense and wars we've poured into defeating it - coexists with dire warnings about easy access by al Queda to the United States for its operations.

Am I the only reader troubled by this breathless self-contradictory analysis?

 

BEINGTHERE

9:29 PM ET

February 15, 2012

We've got to have specific war "theatres" to send contractors

I would never make a case for continuing a war in the Middle East, but a specific locale - an Iraq, Afghanistan or a Libya - indicate that a process can be put in play to take bids for the billions in contractual work that occurs in designated war zones. Wait, I think I misspoke. I believe the bidding process is a formality. People in influential positions in D.C., many of them elected by us, "make arrangements" for friends or friends of friends to become beneficiaries of contract work.

If terrorists are jumping around the globe, it's hard to know how to plan for of the "reconstruction" of countries we devastate. As we build up forces in the Pacific Rim, the CIA is probably already hatching plots to start something with China. Not sure that Mexican thug/informant who worked for them last fall re: the attempted assassination of the Jordanian ambassador will still be available.

 

ALANCHRISTOPHER

4:23 PM ET

February 16, 2012

Al-Qaeda

The muslims who became al-Qaeda were trained in the 1980's by US Army Special Forces soldiers to defeat the Russians in Afghanistan. They learned to recruit, organize, train, and direct islamic insurgents in unconventional warfare. They learned operations and intelligence, light and heavy weapons, demolitions and construction engineering, local and regional communications, advanced first aid to minor surgery, and civil affairs and psychological operations. They learned how to gather and use information to plan effective combat operations. They learned about chain of command to replace lost or captured leaders. They learned how to take apart, reverse engineer, and manufacture their weapons and munitions. They learned how to develop, improve, and test weapons and munitions. They learned how to make and use explosives, including shaped charges, from indigenous materials. They learned to build bunkers that could not be found by aircraft, satellites, or electronic sensors. They learned how to use communications systems without detection or with misdirection of intent in unsecure environments. They learned how to provide medical and economic aid to those from whom they recruited. They learned how to make appeals to specific audiences at specific times and for specific purposes.

The most important training that al-Qaeda learned is how to train other insurgents. Al-Qaeda is a force multiplier. An A detachment of 15 men can train as many as 1,500 troops. Al-Qaeda has about 3,000 members and could train as many as 300,000 insurgents. Al-Qaeda works in many countries where it trains and advises islamic insurgents. Sometimes, the members of al-Qaeda may function as de facto commanders, but most often they train and advise units that already exist.

Qaddafi fought al-Qaeda in the Islamic Magreb (southern Libya and Algeria and northern Mali, Niger, and Chad). The Libyan Rebellion in 2011 forced Qaddafi to move his army north, and part of al-Qaeda moved south through Niger to northern Nigeria to train and advise Boko Haram, an ineffective group that fought with clubs and knives and was easily driven away. Al-Qaeda taught Boko Haram to make and use explosive devices to attack police stations and capture firearms and ammunition. They have launched increasingly successful raids and ambushes, and they have launched coordinated attacks on multiple targets to prevent reinforcement of the main target.

Al-Qaeda's aid for al-Shabab should make that group more effective in unconventional attacks on regular military units in Somalia, especially cutting supply lines for militaries with limited aerial resupply capabilities. In short, al-Qaeda will not take command; it will train, advise, and improve the combat performance of al-Shebab's insurgent units.

 

DRAGONSEOMAN

11:19 PM ET

March 14, 2012

Al-Qaeda the forgotten threat

Even if Osama Bin Laden has been killed last year it doesn't mean that Al Qaeda
has ceased to be a threat to the Americans. They are still continue with their plans to destroy us and just before being killed, Osama Bin Laden was conspiring about creating another 9-11. Now by merging with another group they will have access to more man power and means to do their plans. The government should think of away to sweep them out of the face of the Earth.