One Nation Under God

With Obama’s contraceptive plan putting him in hot water, how much does religion really matter at the ballot box?

BY SCOTT CLEMENT | FEBRUARY 15, 2012

Scott Clement is the polling analyst for the Washington Post. The poll-watcher analysis series on American public opinion on foreign policy is cross-posted at the Behind the Numbers blog.

Religion and politics collided once again this month as religious groups -- led by Catholic bishops -- objected to requirements to provide contraceptive-covering insurance in President Barack Obama's health insurance rules. America's widely varying levels of religious commitment, even within denominations, makes the outcome of such firestorms hard to predict.

It's turned into quite the campaign issue, which has pollsters wondering whether religion can really tip the scales. Catholics represent about one in four adults in America, which makes the backlash from bishops to Obama's new regulations potentially consequential. The rules -- which Obama later modified -- would have required religiously affiliated institutions to provide health plans that cover birth control, a practice with which they have a moral disagreement. Alienating such a large group could severely endanger his chances at re-election in November.

But Catholics, like Protestants and other religious groups in the United States, are far from monolithic. Only one in three self-identified Catholics reported attending Mass every week in a January Washington Post-ABC News poll. And even that figure may be an overestimate -- given Americans' tendency to say they are more churchgoing than they actually are.

Obama's popularity among Catholics hasn't taken a big hit, at least in the short term. His overall approval rating among Catholics in Gallup polls ticked down from 49 to 46 percent amid the controversy, a change within the margin of sampling error. While most Catholics in a Pew poll released this week said religiously affiliated employers should not be required to pay for contraceptives, just 15 percent said they believe using contraceptives is morally wrong.

So how much could this affect the 2012 campaign? Catholics represent just one aspect of America's complex religion and politics calculus. Among Protestants, white evangelicals are a cornerstone of the Republican base, while white mainline (or non-evangelical) Protestants represent a key swing voting group. Black Protestants are overwhelmingly Democratic.

For white evangelicals, religion seems to be making more of a difference in the Republican primary than it will when Obama is on the ballot. Romney has struggled to win evangelicals in early primary contests in Iowa and South Carolina, but national polls show evangelicals overwhelmingly back Romney in a matchup against Obama.

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

 

KIRBANG

11:34 AM ET

February 16, 2012

Birth control

The majority of Catholic women within the reproducing ages use effective birth control.

It is reported (but I can not verify but it seem logical) that Catholic women have abortions in higher numbers (%s) than other religions.

Those in opposition to effective modern birth control methods are in the vast majority men.

For all its good works, the Catholic Church is also the source of great harm. Condoms promote VD etc.. Sex is not for intimacy but for procreation. Denial and willful obfuscation of priestly misadventures. Guilt as a motivator. ++

I realize there are strong movements to drag the Church from the 17th century. Lets hope for the health of our daughters it happens sooner than later.

 

PHILBEST

11:44 PM ET

February 17, 2012

There is the hierarchy, and there are "Catholics"

I don't believe Catholics in most 1st world countries take a scrap of notice of what anyone in the hierarchy right up to the Pope himself, says about politicians and political parties who defy the church. Catholics in these countries have known for decades that leftwing liberal parties are essentially anti-christian and morally "progressive", but regardless of what even the Popes themselves have said at times, Catholics vote almost en bloc for leftwing liberal political parties.

I would very much like to see Catholics prove my cynicism wrong at least this time.

Jews are another group that votes almost en bloc for the very political parties who most defy their own Jewish scriptural teachings on issues such as abortion and homosexuality.

 

SPOOD

2:43 PM ET

February 16, 2012

Its a serious misstep for the GOP

Don't let anyome mistake this brouhaha for anything resembling a religious argument. Its a political move, pure and simple.

A way to attack Obamacare without looking like mean bastards trying to take away insurance benefits. It is not religious freedom to impose one's religious beliefs upon people who have not chosen to accept them.

Attacking contraception is such an nationally unpopular, certifiably insane and frankly unconstitutional platform that it will probably lose more voters among Catholics than help them.

 

URGELT

11:43 PM ET

February 16, 2012

Motives

Certainly.

Republicans - who actually were the source of the insurance mandate idea and the first to put it into effect within the US - are cynically using the issue as a wedge to drive against Democrats. The plan of attack is the same was with their anti-abortion legislative crusade: attack a little piece, carve out an exception, make a crack, then widen it.

Once you have an American consensus that religious institutions - and not just them, but their "affiliates," who aren't churches and who sell goods and services to anyone - should be able to dodge the mandate on the grounds of conscience, then any employer should have a shot at dodging the mandate's requirements on the grounds of conscience. Anything goes. Then the whole Obamacare thing falls under its own weight: a mandate which doesn't mandate anything isn't a mandate.

In this case, if the mandate falls apart, it's fine with me. You don't have to be a Republican to deplore a law which requires American citizens to hand over their income to private insurers, many of whom enjoy monopoly power to set prices in their markets. I think there is only one moral way to provide coverage to all Americans, and incidentally, it's a way that will reduce at least 11% (and probably more like 20%) of the cost we collectively pay for health care in the United States. I'm talking about expanding Medicare to all citizens, with its much lower overhead costs and no profit-taking. If we did that, and applied price controls to patented drugs as other Western nations do, we could easily reduce our health care bill by thirty percent or more while providing basic health care to everyone.

It still enrages me that the President caved into to the insurance and drug lobbies when he pursued health care reform. They're the exact cause of out-of-control costs and unaffordability of health care for millions of Americans. So long as we have them in the loop, our per capita health care costs will be drastically out of whack with that of other Western nations.

When the market satisfies public need, leave it alone. When it doesn't, government needs to step in.

 

LLOYDDCOLBERT

3:48 AM ET

February 17, 2012

What I have learned..

I am a devoted Catholic and I am obviously against abortion. I believe contraceptives are one way of aborting helpless and innocent angels in which they don't deserve to be treated. Individuals Genomma Lab must be responsible with their actions! What Obama is trying to produce here with his new contraceptive plan are people doing sex as long as they want to and to whom they want to anytime! We don't want that to happen, do we?

 

KIRBANG

9:30 PM ET

February 18, 2012

sex

What is wrong with sex?

The irrational and unfounded fear of a society on sexual runaway is yet another scare tactic advanced by those who wish to impose their will upon others. Regardless of the statements by the ignorant, and except as anecdote, people do not have sex with animals, dead people or have bacchanals where sex is pursued without inhibition. Sexual repression and guilt lead to far worse things than do a random tryst. This is about power. Power of the male hierarchy entrenched over ages. Heavens help us if women have the same sexual freedom from sanction men enjoy.

Please ask you wife and daughter about the"little angels" and if they share your misguided belief that they should continue to bow to the power holding sway over their health and choice.

The next argument will be life begins with desire. How one can say they are against abortion and then state they are against contraceptive health is nuts.

 

ANYA KHAN

5:19 AM ET

February 19, 2012

Sad and dishonest.

Catholics came out in waves when Presdient Obama attacked Catholics and the 2nd Amendment. His "compromise" may save him the Catholic vote, but if he would do this in an election year, how bad will his attacks be when he doesn't have to worry about re-election.

And for the Anti-Semitics, get help

 
 

SHANDA HABERSHAM

8:35 PM ET

March 15, 2012

Obama Plan for 2012

In my opinion, Obama's plan for his remaining years as American President would have a big impact on the churches, especially as the government are becoming more and more acceptable of the same-sex marriage.